The week will end with clear skies and normal temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Sunshine will help thermometers into the low 70s this afternoon. Winds will be light and northerly. Overnight, will once again be clear and cool with a low in the upper 40s.

*FLOOD WARNING* continues for the Amite River at Denham Springs. The current level is 26.0’ and it is projected to crest Friday Morning near the flood stage of 29.0’.

*FLOOD WARNING* continues for the Comite River at Joor Road. The current level is 22.0’ which is 2’ feet above flood stage. The river has crested and will fall below flood stage by Friday.

*FLOOD WARNING* continues for the Tangipahoa River at Robert. The current level is 15.5’ which is 0.5’ above flood stage. The river will crest at 16.5’ Thursday Afternoon.

Looking Ahead: Friday will be very similar to Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures eclipsing 70°. Saturday will begin near 50° as some clouds begin filtering in from the west. A cold front will approach the area, perhaps squeezing out a shower. The bigger story with this front will be the cold air that follows. The lowest temperatures so far this fall season are expected Sunday into Monday with highs struggling to leave the 50s and possibly a freeze for some on Monday Morning.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A weak cold front will nudge into the area later Thursday before dissipating. It is unlikely a passing cloud is even noted with this front. The next big trough will dive through the Great Lakes region and into the Southeastern United States on Saturday. A surface cold front will move into the region as well. The GFS forecast model has a dry passage with this front—believable as a very dry air mass is expected to be in place. The ECMWF model suggests some showers, especially on the coast, and for this reason we’ll carry an isolated rain mention for now. Either way, both models agree that this front will usher in the coldest temperatures of the fall season thus far. While there may be some lag in the passage, Sunday Morning will start off chilly, but the coldest temperatures will likely be reserved for Monday Morning when light northeasterly winds and clear skies have a full night to take effect. While the 30s are all but a certainty, a frost looks increasingly likely north of I-10 with a freeze possible north of I-12.  

 --Josh

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