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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Back to July steam with a few pop ups

4 months 2 days 14 hours ago Wednesday, July 17 2019 Jul 17, 2019 July 17, 2019 5:58 AM July 17, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A weather pattern quieter and more typical of July will be restored for the remainder of the week. Only small daily fluctuations in rain coverage are expected. Around the United States, big heat will be the big story for the remainder of the week. Many large metropolitan areas from the Midwest to East Coast face high temperatures near 100 degrees with even higher “feels-like” temperatures. Locations from Oklahoma City to Omaha to Kansas City to St. Louis and even Philadelphia are under an Excessive Heat Warning.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight:  Some early sunshine will be followed by a deck of cumulus clouds bubbling up with the daytime warming, which will send highs into the low 90s. There may be just enough juice to instigate an isolated shower or thunderstorm but coverage will not be too extensive. Overnight will be muggy with lows in the mid 70s.    

Up Next: To end the week, high and low temperatures move closer to normal. Also, rain chances will remain in the isolated category, the typical afternoon “pop-up” variety. Over the weekend, a bit more instability in the atmosphere may allow for a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm development.  

 

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 42.2’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 193 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. The level will slowly fall, but is likely to stay above flood stage for several weeks to come. The high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

The deeper low associated with Barry’s remnants should open up into a wave of low pressure by Wednesday and scoot away from the region. Less action overall will result in warmer high temperatures, closer to the seasonal averages near 90 degrees. Nights will remain muggy and in the mid 70s. A broad upper level ridge will build over the region for the end of the week leading to a warmer and slightly drier pattern. Both the American and European forecast models are picking up on an inverted trough traversing the Gulf of Mexico beneath this broad ridge over the weekend. Due to this, an increase of showers and thunderstorms can be expected, but should follow the normal timing pattern.   

--Josh

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