Another Round of Storms Thursday/Invest 99L Fighting Dry Air & Wind Shear
After another flare up of showers is expected for Thursday before daily rain coverage trends down into the weekend.
Today and Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will once again erupt over south Louisiana today and could bring areas of localized heavy rainfall early his afternoon. We are sitting on the perimeter of a high pressure system that is parked over the Carolinas; along the outer edge of that high pressure system is what is known as the "ring of fire", so we can expect shower and thunderstorm activity to persist in that area. Clouds will begin to increase in the early afternoon hours and the rain could arrive as early as 1:00 PM. The showers could hang on in the overnight hours, but will dissipate by early morning.
Up Next: Friday through Monday we can expect lots of sunshine, heat and humidity. High temperatures will run for the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. Many will have an opportunity to dry out or perhaps continue the flood cleanup, but do note that the unrelenting summer heat means hydrating and frequent breaks will be a good idea. As far as showers and thunderstorms go… rain coverage around the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area will be around 20 percent, with the best chance south of I-10.
The Tropics: UPDATE As of 7 AM Thursday morning, Invest 99L remained a cluster of showers and thunderstorms centered just north of Puerto Rico. The system is continuing to fight a large area of dry to the west and a moderate area of wind shear to the northwest, yet has consistently produced tropical storm force winds of 45mph, but has continued to show signs poor organization. Without a well-defined center Invest 99L will not be classified as a tropical cyclone. Additionally, such poor organization makes it very difficult for often reliable forecast models to pinpoint a track or intensity. After encountering some dry air, conditions may become a bit more favorable for development as Invest 99L nears The Bahamas this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives the wave an 80-percent chance of becoming a named storm over the next five days. Regardless of development, heavy rain and rain can be expected in those areas over the weekend. Beyond that, there is too much uncertainty for alarm in Louisiana at this time. You should double-check the preparations made at the beginning of every hurricane season and monitor the forecast for further updates.
Forecast Discussion: As a weak wave slides through the upper levels, showers and thunderstorms will be a bit more numerous over the forecast area this afternoon. Convection will likely initiate a bit earlier as well. Areas of very heavy rainfall could again occur leading to some localized flooding since precipitable water is expected to remain around 2" or higher. Drier air is expected to move into the area from the east behind the wave Thursday night into Friday, and shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be less than 30 percent for most of the area. Low temperatures wont change much over the coming days nor will highs with the exception of today as earlier showers may hold numbers down by a degree or two. Another eastbound wave is expected to move west across the north Gulf of Mexico Saturday. This is expected to produce scattered showers & thunderstorms over areas generally south of I-10 with more isolated activity to the north. The moisture values in place on Sunday should support similar rain chances during mainly late morning and afternoon hours.
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