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An uncommon feeling for July

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Posted: Jul 14, 2014 12:33 PM by Meteorologist Josh Eachus
Updated: Jul 15, 2014 7:33 AM
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  Rating: 5.0 (2 votes)

Topics: weather, forecast, climate, cold front, July

A weather feature often reserved for only the winter months in South Louisiana will make a rare appearance on Tuesday. As a result, Wednesday's weather in the Baton Rouge area will turn out as pleasant as it gets during the month of July in South Louisiana.

A cold front is expected to pass through the state, offering a slight break in the heat and humidity, a welcome gift this time of year. By Wednesday Morning, most locations will dip into the upper 60s and the afternoon hours will find highs in the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies and relatively low humidity! Wednesday Night may find lows as cool as the lower 60s in Southern Mississippi and middle 60s in the Baton Rouge area.

But just how "out of the ordinary" is this?

First, when you consider the average range in temperatures for Baton Rouge during the month of July, it is easy to see that ANY variation is indeed uncommon. The average high and low for July 1 is 92° and 73° while for the end of the month is virtually the same at 92° and 74°. Records show very little range as well with the warmest reading ever recorded in Baton Rouge during July at 103° and the coolest at 59°, occurring twice in history.

Second, since 2003, July has averaged 25 days in which the high temperature has eclipsed 90°. The fewest days in July over 90° in the last 11 years came in 2007 when there were just 20. So far this July, there have already been two days that have not reached 90° and up to five more could accumulate this week alone.

Third, and most telling, is the low temperature statistics over the last 11 years. Since 2003, July has average only two days per month where the low was less than or equal to 69°. That average is inflated by 6 nights in the 60s in 2013. More than half of those years failed to record a temperature below 70°. Of course, the reason lows don't often escape the 70s is Southeastern Louisiana's close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. Very warm in the summer, the water provides a constant marine influence to the local weather keeping moist or humid air through the month. Temperatures can never dip below the dew points (the temperature at which air is saturated, also the temperature at which air condenses into clouds) and South Louisiana dew points rarely leave the 70s in July.

So yes, not only could the area feel an unseasonable, albeit short-lived stretch of relatively cooler temperatures, but an easing break in humidity.

By Thursday, the possibility of showers and storms will return during the afternoon hours with the best chances south of I-10. In fact, unsettled weather is pegged to stay at least through the first half of the weekend. Humidity will slowly increase as well.

Remember, you can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.

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