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Almost sticky ahead of a late week cold front

11 months 2 weeks 1 day ago Wednesday, November 02 2016 Nov 2, 2016 November 02, 2016 5:48 AM November 02, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Normal highs and lows for this time of year are 76 degrees and 53 degrees. Especially with afternoon highs, Baton Rouge area temperatures have been well above the mark of late and that will continue through Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will bring partly sunny skies with a high temperature back into the mid 80s. Winds will be out of the southeast at about 5-10mph. An isolated light shower or sprinkle isn’t out of the question, but definitely don’t expect any considerable rain. Overnight, partly cloudy skies will limit fog development. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Up Next: On Thursday, partly sunny skies will again allow highs into the mid 80s before some changes begin to take shape overnight. A cold front will enter the region from the northwest. In the local area, moisture is going to be too limited for widespread showers and storms. If there is any rain (which seems unlikely), it would be from a shower that develops north of the area and holds together along the front. The front will cross by Friday Morning, leaving sunshine and afternoon highs around 80 degrees. Brilliant fall weather is expected for the weekend with clear skies, highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.   

The Tropics: The tropics are quiet and no development is expected this week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level ridge of high pressure has been displaced to the east allowing the unseasonably warm temperatures to at least retreat from record territory. However, surface high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continues to bring southeasterly winds through the region and thus thermometers have remained above average. A shortwave trough dropping southeastward out of the Upper Midwest has spawned a surface low pressure and associated cold front at its basin and this system is progged to cross the local area on Friday Morning. Moisture return ahead of the front has been and will be limited, and the atmosphere remains quite stable thanks to the recent warmth. Therefore, even with showers and thunderstorms along the front to our north, very little precipitation is expected to survive into the area meaning that the drought conditions will continue to worsen. By Friday Afternoon, the cold front is expected to be in the Northern Gulf of Mexico with surface high pressure building into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Prolonged northerly winds will keep cold air advection going through Saturday with high and low temperatures slipping back to average. Some traditional cool spots north of Baton Rouge could see low sin the upper 40s on Saturday and Sunday Mornings. We’re continuing to watch some sort of trough feature eon the forecast models for next week that would suggest another push of cool air. This feature looks weaker than what models showed 24 hours ago. As mentioned, stay with us as we iron out the long range details. One trend that has held—temperatures should not be going well above average once again in the next 1-2 weeks.     

--Josh

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