A nice April weekend ahead
Several record high temperatures fell on Thursday. New benchmarks were set in Baton Rouge (82°), New Roads (82°) and McComb (80°). So, One thing you can lock in with this weather forecast – it will feel nothing like January in the Baton Rouge area!
Today and Tonight: Another warm afternoon is ahead with Friday highs sailing into the upper 70s. Skies will be partly sunny and a stray drop or two of rain is possible. During the overnight hours, temperatures will struggle to fall back into the low 60s. Some fog could develop by morning.
Up Next: Saturday and Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s. Each morning brings the possibility of patchy fog, but other than that, there are no major weather concerns. Though warm, the forecast for runners in the Louisiana Marathon, Half, Quarter and 5K is looking dry with light winds and falling humidity through the races. Rain chances will pick up just a bit on Monday but the next chance for organized showers and thunderstorms will hold off until Late Tuesday when a cold front moves into the region. This one does not pack a major punch and temperatures will not fall that much behind it.
THE SCIENCE: A fast zonal flow in the upper levels will leave a stationary front in position north of the forecast area through the weekend. As moisture advection continues, a few low-topped showers could pop, but overall, the main story will remain above average temperatures. Lighter winds may allow some fog to develop over the next several mornings. Temperatures have only been scaled back a degree or two for Saturday and Sunday as mid-level riding over the Gulf of Mexico begins to flatten and move east. Low level moisture shown at 80-90 percent on 850mb forecast charts suggests at least partly cloudy skies through the weekend. However, an absence of significant forcing mechanisms will mean that rain chances stay at 20 percent or less in that time. By early next week, an amplifying dip in the jet stream over the South Central United States should begin to help along the boundary to our northwest. Increased forcing due to the advancing front should result in better shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are hinting at a negatively tilted trough crossing the Central Gulf Coast in the Wednesday timeframe. At the moment, it is too early to say if severe weather will be a concern, but the jet stream orientation looks favorable. This trough will drag a front through the area by later next week though no significant cold air is following.