Fog to partial sun will tell the tale for the next few mornings.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will begin gloomy. Fog will give way to some peeks of sun, but the low-level moisture creating that sticky feel for November will also maintain at least partial cloudiness. Highs will head for the mid to upper 70s. Overnight, fog may again be an issue, with low temperatures pegged for the mid 60s.

Looking Ahead: Look for Wednesday’s weather to run very similar to Tuesday, with maybe a bit more afternoon sun. On Thursday, partly sunny skies may also give way to an afternoon shower—especially near the coast. Highs will be near 80. By Friday, the next front will be entering the region providing the lift needed to set off more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy with a high near 80. This could have an effect on High School Football, so keep an eye on the forecast in case of rain. We can expect a cold front to linger in the region and maintain rain chances into Saturday—not just in Baton Rouge, but also in Tuscaloosa for the Tigers vs. Tide football game.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A mid-level ridge will be in control of the Eastern United States through Thursday. Temperatures will be warmer than average as a result—especially at night as Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to linger, keeping dew points elevated and thus the low temperature basement limited. That collection of moisture will also mean that as warmer temperatures aloft settle over the cooler, cloudy mornings, clouds don’t break entirely this week, so high temperatures actually won’t be that far from average in the upper 70s. By Thursday, the next wave will slide through the jet stream. Most of the energy with this system will remain across the northern half of the nation, but a trailing cold front will be able to cross the Gulf Coast. This front will produce showers and thunderstorms by Friday, but there remains some uncertainty with timing. Both the GFS and ECMWF models bring showers into the picture as early as Thursday Evening. Friday is expected to be unsettled. Differences arise on Saturday. The GFS is quite progressive and has the front clearing by Saturday Afternoon—suggesting lower rain totals. The ECMWF has a stall out of the front which would mean a longer period of rain, lasting through Saturday Night. Both scenarios seem plausible because the parent trough being well to the north could lead to a boundary becoming diffuse, but a surface high sliding in at the surface, as shown by both models, would tend to bump the storm system away. We’ll need monitor to determine the effects on weekend plans. Stay tuned!

 --Josh

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