A few for the taking
Wednesday played out to be a difficult forecast. In the morning, we identified some dry low-level air that would make it difficult for showers and storms to develop, despite the presence of a pretty defined upper level disturbance. By noon, radar trends of northward moving showers justified raising rain chance. In the end though, the dry air won out after all and most locations saw little more than clouds or just a few sprinkles.
Today and tonight: Mostly cloudy skies will spit out a few showers and thunderstorms. About 40% of the area will pick up some rain today. Showers and plenty of cloud cover will hold thermometers in the upper 80s, but it will remain quite humid. Activity will diminish tonight with a low in the mid 70s.
Looking ahead: Your week will wrap up with partly sunny skies, a high in the low 90s, humidity, and only a stray shower or storm—very typical of early September. Saturday will begin dry and quickly warm into the low 90s. Tailgaters can expect a sticky go of things. By the late afternoon, a shower or thunderstorm could develop. If lightning is nearby any outdoor events, we always encourage you to seek shelter until the storm passes. In a crowded outdoor space, one lightning strike could be disastrous. After a partly cloudy and muggy night, Sunday will offer the better weekend rain opportunity.
Forecast Discussion: The region is under the influence of a weakening upper level wave in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This parked disturbance has been the culprit for bouts of rain and storms in Southwest Louisiana, but little more than some patches of clouds in the Baton Rouge area. With one final gasp, and at its closest position to the region this week, the wave could help to spark off a few showers and storms on Thursday Afternoon. This seems a bit more plausible especially since the moisture content in the atmosphere and instability is up compared to Monday through Wednesday. On Friday and Saturday the region will sit between a ridge to the west and a trough to the east. Sometimes, this northerly flow aloft can provide the cooler air needed to destabilize the atmosphere and generate convection. At this time, forecast models are not looking too aggressive with precipitation given that there is no true trigger for widespread rain or storms. On Sunday and Monday, another upper level wave will move into the region and this is expected to bring better rain chances.
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