WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2015, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Thu, 30 Jul 2015 20:07:49 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Alas, liquid! http://www.wbrz.com/news/alas-liquid-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/alas-liquid-/ Weather Thu, 30 Jul 2015 6:04:59 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Alas, liquid!

For the parched lawns and gardens, scattered showers and thunderstorms are back in play for the coming few days.

On Wednesday, showers actually outperformed the forecast bringing rain to 70% of the viewing area while only 20% coverage was anticipated.

As far as an impact on the heat, while temperature will likely still climb above average, afternoon showers should keep the duration of such warmth a little shorter.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Beneath sunshine, temperatures will once again rise quickly through the 80s and into the mid 90s by the lunch hour. Clouds will then bubble up and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. About 50% of the area will pick up rain. We can expect downpours, frequent lightning and even gusty wind with some of the thunderstorms. Activity will linger into the evening before eventually dissipating. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s.

Looking ahead: Friday will bring fewer, more isolated showers and thunderstorms. The action should limit temperatures at least a little bit—staying in the mid 90s. Into the weekend, showers will slacken a bit and thus temperatures should spend several hours in the mid to upper 90s. No major adjustments to the forecast are needed heading into next week.

THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: Our heat ridge will be departing westward today. This will open the upper flow to a more northerly direction allowing cooler temperatures aloft and minor disturbances to make their way into the region. With this noted, a subtle change to the pattern can be expected. While there isn’t really much seen to break the stretch of above average temperatures, the daily duration of the heat should be subdued somewhat. Highs will come around midday with a much better opportunity for afternoon showers and thunderstorms meaning a much better opportunity for some rain-cooled air, or at least some shade from clouds. Forecast models do show an upper disturbance passing overhead on Thursday and Friday. In addition, they pull a weak front into the area. Combined, the two should help to spark off showers and thunderstorms with a juicy air mass well established. Surface rain output remains unimpressive into the weekend despite the presence of a weak area of low pressure. Therefore, while not ruling out a stray shower, we’re keeping chances (PoPs) off of the forecast boards.

 --Josh

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3 weeks in a row http://www.wbrz.com/news/3-weeks-in-a-row/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/3-weeks-in-a-row/ Weather Wed, 29 Jul 2015 5:49:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus 3 weeks in a row

Tuesday marked 21 straight days with above average highs of 94° and up which is the 3rd longest such stretch on record. This warm spell has set an all-time mark with 8 straight days without going below 78° from July 17-24. There have been 18 days over 95° this month compared to an average of 17 days above 95° for an entire year.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Once again there will be plenty of sun and little to stop thermometers from climbing into the 90s by lunch. We can expect temperatures to top out in the upper 90s. Some high resolution forecast models offer up isolated mid-late afternoon showers and storms. It looks as though 20-30% of us could grab a passing shower as a few of them move east to west across the region. We’ll keep you posted as to if/where any develop. Tonight will be starry and sticky with a low in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: Alas we spot some better rain chances for the latter part of the week and the weekend. No washouts are expected, but afternoon rain coverage in the forecast area will change from 10% to about 50%. After both Thursday and Friday climb into the mid 90s by lunch, showers and storms will pop-up providing downpours, lightning and even gusty wind for some during the afternoon.

 THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: Our heat ridge will be departing westward over the next 24-48 hours. This will open the upper flow to a more northwesterly direction and allow cooler temperatures aloft and minor disturbances to make their way into the region. With this noted, a subtle change to the pattern can be expected. While there isn’t really much seen to break the stretch of above average temperatures, the daily duration of the heat should be subdued somewhat. Highs will come around midday with a much better opportunity for afternoon showers and thunderstorms meaning a much better opportunity for some rain-cooled air, or at least some shade from clouds. Long range models do show a trough axis pausing over the area Friday through the weekend, however surface rain output isn’t all that impressive. Certainly the forcing mechanisms such as a trough, marine breezes and high heat are there, so squeezing out at least 30% geographical coverage in the rain each afternoon shouldn’t be a problem.

 --Josh

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More hot Louisiana sun http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-hot-louisiana-sun/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-hot-louisiana-sun/ Weather Tue, 28 Jul 2015 5:53:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More hot Louisiana sun

We notch a few more highs in the upper 90s before better rain coverage allows for some cooler afternoons.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: A mostly sunny afternoon will again be offered up pushing high temperatures into the upper 90s. As has been usual of late, while a stray shower isn’t impossible, most if not all of the area will stay dry. Overnight, we look for mostly clear skies and a low in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: We’ll slowly begin to ease out of this unusually hot weather pattern by late week. In the meantime, Wednesday will repeat Tuesday’s weather. By Thursday, a fast warmup into the mid and upper 90s will give way to some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A more unsettled trend into the weekend, we may still find highs topping out in the mid 90s, but the duration of such high temperatures will be shorter lived with afternoon showers and clouds cooling the area a bit.

 THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: The ridge of high pressure aloft that has kept the pattern hot and drier than normal over the last 10 days will hold steady through Wednesday. This will result in heat considered high even for this time of year and very few showers and storms. By Thursday, the ridge will retreat westward, opening up a more northerly flow aloft. This northerly flow will mean cooler temperatures up top and thus steeper lapse rates overall. Thus, instability will translate into daytime warmth becoming much more effective in setting off afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially when kicked by marine breezes. The Weather Prediction Center also shows a boundary stalling in our region by late week which would even further enhance shower and storm chances. Long range models are not overly wet, but do seem to place afternoon showers over the region Thursday through Sunday. Either way, chances are looking good that the string of days in the upper 90s will finally break and daily shower chances will return to normal.

 --Josh

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Picking up where we left off http://www.wbrz.com/news/picking-up-where-we-left-off/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/picking-up-where-we-left-off/ Weather Mon, 27 Jul 2015 6:05:54 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Picking up where we left off

The stretch of above average heat will continue as we advance into the final week of July.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Mostly sunny skies will allow another afternoon to offer temperatures in the upper 90s. Rain shower chances are below mentionable criteria early this week, where only coastal areas with more moisture availability will have a 10% shot for some afternoon showers. Another clear and sticky night is ahead with a low in the mid 70s.

Looking ahead: Early week weather will not differ much from what we’ve seen of late. Mostly sunny afternoons with highs in the upper 90s and clear nights with lows in the mid-upper 70s are expected through Wednesday. By Thursday, we’ll bring in a much better chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. While we’ll still find hot temperatures into midday, afternoons may be a bit cooler thanks to showers and clouds. This more unsettled pattern will last into the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: The ridge of high pressure aloft that has kept the pattern hot and drier than normal over the last 10 days will be steadfast into mid-week. This will result in heat considered high even for this time of year and very few showers and storms. By Thursday, the ridge will retreat westward, opening up a more northerly flow aloft. This northerly flow will mean cooler temperatures up top and thus steeper lapse rates overall. Thus, instability will translate into daytime warmth becoming much more effective in setting off afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially when kicked by marine breezes. The Weather Prediction Center also shows a boundary stalling in our region by late week which would even further enhance shower and storm chances. Either way, chances are looking good that the string of days in the upper 90s will finally break and daily shower chances will return to normal.

 --Josh

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Sweltering weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/sweltering-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sweltering-weekend/ Weather Fri, 24 Jul 2015 5:48:54 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sweltering weekend

Baton Rouge is cracking several top-10 lists for all-time hot stretches in the Capital City.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: We’ll wrap up the week with more heat. Morning sunshine will give way to a few afternoon clouds and a high temperature near 97. Certainly, expect a portion of the afternoon to feel even warmer with humidity added. Showers will be tough to find away from coastal areas. Overnight will remain still and sticky with a low near 78.

Looking ahead: It seems this has been said a few times now, but holds true again, this weekend will be the hottest of the year, so far. Both afternoons will feature high temperatures in the upper 90s with a few locations possibly snaring triple digits. Heat advisories may be issued by the National Weather Service, but regardless, please stay hydrated and don’t over exert while enjoying the outdoors. Skies will be mainly clear with only brief, dodgy showers possible either afternoon.

 THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: If you are sick of the extra-hot weather, don’t read the following. An upper level ridge positioned over Texas will slowly meander eastward into the weekend into Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. With that noted, additional subsidence and slightly drier air will increase the warming capabilities of our atmosphere and thermometers will be able to rise a degree or two higher than what has been seen thus far. A real shot at triple digits will exist for some locations this weekend. Heat advisories could be issued by the NWS, but either way you should take the necessary heat precautions as a portion of each afternoon will feel like well over 100°. As for rain chances, with that ridge noted along with the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, am skeptical of the 30% rain chances being carried each afternoon. This seems plausible near the coast where more moisture will be available but elsewhere; the ridge could be just a little too much. Long-term trends show no alteration to the pattern so we can expect steam and more steam to wrap up July.

 --Josh

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Impressive heat streaks continue growing http://www.wbrz.com/news/impressive-heat-streaks-continue-growing/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/impressive-heat-streaks-continue-growing/ Weather Thu, 23 Jul 2015 8:46:19 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Impressive heat streaks continue growing

August of 2011 is the benchmark for long duration heat in Baton Rouge.

For recent history, June to July of 2009 is a period on several “hot lists.”

Now, July 2015 is quickly climbing those charts.

Overnights have been particularly abnormal with seemingly no time allowed for the region and local air-conditioning units to catch a break. After a low temperature of 78° on Thursday Morning, July 2015 now tops the list of most consecutive mornings (7) with a low at or above 78°. How have you liked waking up to that? A stretch in August 2011 and June to July of 1980 had also gone 7 days, but forecasts are for warm mornings to continue, possibly blowing out the previous stretches by a wide margin.

Of course, the daytime heat is what many of us actually experience and, July 2015 now cracks the top 10 longest stretches of days with a high temperature reaching or exceeding 94°. The 15 days in a row with such heat are actually only half as many as a sweltering stretch from August 2-31 2011. However, 6 more would bring the 2015 total to 21 consecutive days above 94° and into the top 3 of this list. No day in the next 7 is forecast to be below 96°.  

Somewhat surprisingly, only 5 daily records have been cracked over this warm stretch. 5 record high-lows were met from July 17-21 with one record high (97°) on July 19. Most other standing record highs for the month are at 100° and above.

Additional sizzling stats:

                -Every day in July 2015 has eclipsed 90°

                -The hottest temperature so far has been 98° on July 20th

-10 days in July have reached 95° or above

-On average there are 5 95°+ days in July and 17 for the year

-The number of 95° days has steadily increased over the last 4 decades with about 100 in the 70s and nearly 200 in the 2000s

-90° is reached 90 times per year

-The average last 90° high occurs on October 1st

-The latest 90° occurred on October 26 1939

*Note that all of the statistics referenced are from the official observation station for Baton Rouge at Metro Airport. These records date back to the 1930s.

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Day after day http://www.wbrz.com/news/day-after-day/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/day-after-day/ Weather Thu, 23 Jul 2015 6:05:57 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Day after day

Every day so far in July has found a high temperature over 90°.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Thursday will bring another morning of clear skies followed by partial afternoon sun. Temperatures will reach 90 during the 11 o’clock hour and top out in the mid 90s by early afternoon. The marine breezes may kick out a spotty shower in coastal areas, but most locations inland are expected to be dry. Overnight will be mostly clear with lows struggling to fall out of the 80s.

Looking ahead: Heading into the weekend, Friday will be partly sunny with highs in the mid 90s and only 20% rain coverage in the afternoon—mainly near the coast. Everything gets a bump on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will surge into the upper 90s with a few locations perhaps registering triple digits. Low temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 70s, with some spots staying in the 80s. Shower chances will also get a slight nudge. The added heat with marine breezes will offer a 30% shot at a cooling shower each afternoon through Monday.

 THE SCIENCE:  

Forecast Discussion: The upper level ridge over Texas will begin to crawl eastward into the weekend. A little additional subsidence will mean that temperatures can climb a few degrees higher—into the upper 90s. We can expect to see the National Weather Service proceed with more heat advisories as a result because the heat index, or feels-like temperatures, will be well into the low 100s this weekend. Meanwhile rain chances will continue to be thwarted. In all likelihood, if showers develop, they will be triggered by the high surface instability alone and the coastal breeze boundaries. This pattern is expected to remain in place through Monday and likely beyond.

 --Josh

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Steady temps, scarce pops http://www.wbrz.com/news/steady-temps-scarce-pops/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/steady-temps-scarce-pops/ Weather Wed, 22 Jul 2015 5:51:52 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Steady temps, scarce pops

The hot afternoons press on while rain chances remain in the isolated category. Little more than a quick shower is possible over the next few days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Wednesday's forecast will mirror Tuesday in that a very fast warmup through the 80s will preclude an afternoon high in the mid 90s. Along with this heat and humidity, marine breezes will try to force out a quick batch of afternoon showers to offer gardens, lawns and us some brief relief. Overnight it will remain muggy with a low in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: The rest of the week will feature similarly isolated afternoon shower chances. In addition, a pattern of hotter and more humid conditions than usual will persist. Expect morning sun, afternoon cumulus clouds and highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices will exceed 105° at times. Nights won't offer much relief with lows barely dipping below 80°. Even hotter temperatures are lining up for the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The dry patch of air aloft that brought lighter shower coverage on Tuesday is filling back in with some moisture. This will again briefly bump rain chances for Wednesday Afternoon with isolated activity dotting the radar screen by afternoon. Normal marine breeze initiation is expected with a general northward motion into the afternoon hours. A couple of weak impulses swinging around the sturdy upper ridge over Texas may enhance the rain opportunity Wednesday and again on Thursday. By the weekend, this heat ridge is expected to nudge closer while at the surface a high will move from east to west through the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Together, the two will result in even more sparse shower chances and additional warmth. A run at triple digits isn't out of the question Saturday through Monday with heat advisories likely to be posted again.

--Josh

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Keep cool and drive on http://www.wbrz.com/news/keep-cool-and-drive-on/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/keep-cool-and-drive-on/ Weather Tue, 21 Jul 2015 8:34:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Keep cool and drive on

While snarled traffic is nothing new to the Baton Rouge area, morning delays have been much heavier this week due to accidents. The Monday and Tuesday Morning commutes along I-10 through the Capital City were largely impacted by a series of crashes.

Is there a cause for these traffic headaches? While it may be a loose tie, science has shown that hot weather can test tempers.

Like traffic, certainly heat is nothing new to the Baton Rouge area either. However, highs in the mid and upper 90s running 3-5° above average may be making the hottest days of summer a little more dogged than usual.

The combat to stay cool is mostly mental according to LiveScience.com. In extreme heat, moods are lowered due to trouble sleeping, dehydration, and being cooped up in air conditioning to stay cool-leading to increased feelings of violence and aggression. The lack of control over the situation further irritates some people. Doctors even recognize this as a summer version of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD).

In the heat, the WBRZ Weather team reminds you to stay hydrated, wear loose fitting clothing and try not to over-exert inside. Certainly you don't need to remain in the house by take a little distance off of that normal run, play 9 instead of 18 and try and get in most of the yardwork in the mornings or evenings when it is cooler.

Most importantly, care for one another. Check on those without access to air conditioning and make sure pets have a cool place too!

Lastly, let's manage the heat-induced aggression together! Slow down on the interstates, keep cool and drive on so we can all keep moving!

Above average heat is going to continue through the month. Stay with the WBRZ Weather team online and on social media for the latest forecasts!

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Hot with isolated showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/hot-with-isolated-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/hot-with-isolated-showers/ Weather Tue, 21 Jul 2015 5:51:14 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Hot with isolated showers

Heat will continue to capture weather headlines through the week while showers will be much tougher to find than they were on Monday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Sunshine will hit those thermometers early sending temperatures shooting through the 80s and back to the mid 90s by early afternoon. Skies will be partly sunny by then with a few clouds bubbling up and producing a shower or storm. Fewer areas will receive rain than did on Monday though. Overnight will be still and sticky with a low in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: There once again may be a small uptick in rain chances on Wednesday before the pattern only allows isolated showers or less into the weekend. Though rain chances/coverage may differ a touch from day to day, temperatures will not. Look for highs in the mid 90s and lows in the upper 70s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A little surface weakness or trough stretching from North Carolina to the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico is all that is in place to stir up shower and storm activity through the week. A few differences from last week's setup though at least make afternoon showers a little better possibility. First, the additional moisture content with dew points in the mid to upper 70s has increased instability in this hot air mass even further. Second, the ridge of high pressure aloft has slid over Texas placing our region under northwest flow. This flow allows slightly cooler air aloft to provide more favorable lapse rates for rising parcels of unstable surface air and also opens up the possibility of impulses sliding around its periphery to swing a few disturbances through the region. Though honestly, no forecast models are finding any significant disturbances. Therefore the former explanation-instability with marine breeze interactions would be the most likely culprit for any pop-up afternoon showers through the week. Meanwhile, no mechanisms to erode the hot air mass are expected to affect the region and thus upper 90s with a few opportunities to snag triple digits will be possible through next weekend. Heat indices will continue to exceed 108° at times with heat advisories likely.

--Josh

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Weather Balloons: A modern throwback http://www.wbrz.com/news/weather-balloons-a-modern-throwback/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/weather-balloons-a-modern-throwback/ Weather Mon, 20 Jul 2015 9:33:47 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Weather Balloons: A modern throwback

SLIDELL, La. - Today's meteorologists work with a lot of advanced technology. That includes automated weather observing stations, doppler radar, satellites, computer models, hurricane hunting aircraft, but even today we still use 100-year-old technology, and it's no "throwback."

"You can go way back in time to the 1930's and 1940's and if you think about before we had the radar before we had the satellite, this was the way to get information way up in the atmosphere and we've been doing this for 60 and 70 years," said Ken Graham, Meteorologist In Charge at the National Weather Service office in Slidell.

First used regularly in the 1930's, the simple weather balloon still serves an integral purpose today. An enormous amount of data is taken from the weather balloons, and with it, forecasters can create the plethora of maps used in forecasting, either by computer, or even "old-school" hand analysis.

"There's a small radiosonde, that's what we call it, it's just a small instrument package that we tie with a string onto the balloon and it's got sensors on board. The return is huge because all the data, that goes into the model, that's what we're making the hurricane forecasts with. That's what we're making our cold front, warm front, all the forecasts are based on those models, which the balloon feeds those models. The effort to launch a couple balloons a day is nothing compared to the return on investment for the country when it comes to the weather models," said Graham.

Twice a day, all across the world, balloons are released at the exact same time.

"If you think about all the balloons going up all over the world, a way to look at that is a cat scan of the atmosphere across our entire planet Earth. We look up when it comes to weather forecasting, it's not just looking right here at the surface," said Graham.

These balloons have been known to travel as far as only a few miles from the launch point, or miles away across Alabama, or even out in the Gulf. Once it gets high enough, the balloon is the size of a story and a half building before it bursts and falls back to earth.

"The parachute opens up and it comes back to Earth. It says very clearly that this is a weather instrument, it's nothing strange. There's actually a little cylinder at the bottom of the instrument. Pull the bag out, it says return to sender, it has our address on it. Put the instrumentation on there, we'll get it back and we'll try to reuse it," said Graham.

 


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Heat advisories continue http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisories-continue/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisories-continue/ Weather Mon, 20 Jul 2015 6:10:08 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Heat advisories continue

Once again, a heat advisory is in place for the entire region with the exception of coastal locations. Keep in mind, a heat advisory means that the heat index, or feels like temperature, will exceed 108° for at least two hours. Don't over-exert outside, wear light clothing and stay hydrated.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: High heat will again grab your attention as we begin a new week. Temperatures will rocket for the mid 90s by early afternoon, but by that time, some showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop. High resolution models show the action setting up near the coast first and then meandering inland. Those models do bring a pop through Baton Rouge between 2-4pm for what that is worth. Southern locations have the best chance of some rain relief and northern locations (especially Southern Mississippi) have the lowest chance. Overall, rain coverage will be around 50%. Showers will ease tonight with skies clearing somewhat and thermometers hanging in the mid to upper 70s.

Looking ahead: The week ahead offers little change from the previous week. The three H's will stay in play with afternoon highs pushing the mid and even upper 90s. Skies will be partly sunny by day and mostly clear by night as lows keep in the upper 70s. Those looking for more cooling showers will need some luck. Beyond Monday, daily rain chances will slip back into the normal 20-30% range.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak surface trough stretching from the Eastern Seaboard to the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms today with the highly unstable surface air mass in place. Action will kick off over coastal areas, backing inland into the afternoon as the sea breeze forces showers and storms northward. High resolution models time rain out from 1-5pm with a pop reaching the capital city as well, providing a little afternoon relief from the very high heat. The upper level ridge that initiated this very hot pattern has retreated to the northwest allowing the local area a little better opportunity for some pop-up afternoon showers and storms but still close enough that above average warmth will continue through the week.

--Josh

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The heat peak http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-heat-peak/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-heat-peak/ Weather Fri, 17 Jul 2015 5:50:13 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III The heat peak

Don't expect much of a change through the weekend. In fact, as we approach Sunday, things will only get hotter. This will likely be the hottest weekend of the year thus far.

A heat advisory will likely be issued this weekend as heat indices are expected to reach 108 degrees for several hours Saturday and Sunday. Overall, you know the drill. Stay cool, take frequent breaks when outside, and stay hydrated.

Today, expect a high of 95 with a coastal shower possible, but less than 10 percent of the area will see any rain. Low temperatures will only reach the upper 70's. A strong area of high pressure will keep the air stagnant and helping our temperatures reach the upper 90's.

Some relief is possible next week, with a better chance for some isolated showers, but not by much. Temperatures will still reach at least the mid 90's.

 

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~RG3


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Above average warmth continues http://www.wbrz.com/news/above-average-warmth-continues/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/above-average-warmth-continues/ Weather Thu, 16 Jul 2015 5:38:51 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Above average warmth continues

There are no indications that this hotter than usual pattern will let up anytime soon. Normal highs for this time of year are around 92. Baton Rouge area temperatures are likely to peak at 94-96 over the next several days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Thursday will bring more hot temperatures. With morning sun and a few afternoon clouds, highs will top out around 95. Still, pop-up showers will be difficult to find. Overnights have stayed warm too, and this one will be no different. Expect mostly clear skies with a low in the mid to upper 70s.

Looking ahead: Friday offers up a repeat of Thursday's weather. Only subtle changes to the forecast are needed for the weekend. As it looks, Saturday will feature fewer afternoon clouds with highs climbing a degree or two higher to nearly 96. Sunday will also be mostly sunny and a touch warmer. Right now, we're forecasting a high of 97 with feels-like temperatures around 105. A sip of water for yards and gardens is possible, but chances remain low-end.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The sturdy upper-level ridge will stay put through Saturday before meandering slightly to the west. In the meantime, surface high pressure will strengthen through Saturday before weakening again. The result up until then will be mainly clear skies with continued warmer than average temperatures. As we move into Sunday and the ridge slides westward into Texas, much of the area will have a northwesterly flow aloft returned, eroding the warm cap somewhat. The more favorable lapse rates will mean that convection has a better shot of squeezing out some shower activity. In addition, any weak impulses riding around the eastern flank of the ridge could help to enhance shower chances as well. This then, looks to be our pattern into early next week with rain chances nit exceeding 20-30%.

--Josh

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95ers on the rise http://www.wbrz.com/news/95ers-on-the-rise/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/95ers-on-the-rise/ Weather Wed, 15 Jul 2015 10:32:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus 95ers on the rise

Late summer hyperbole may not in fact be so far from truth.

When a neighbor or friend says, "it's been hotter than usual this summer," instincts to roll eyes may have some data working against them.

Urban areas like Baton Rouge have shown signs of significant warming over the last several years.

Since the 1970s, there has been a decadal trend of more and more days where temperatures top out above 95 degrees. A lull in the early 2000s was followed by the highest spike ever. There were nearly 150 days over 95° in the latter portion of last decade.

Inconvenience and larger cooling bills are not the only issues that arise from hotter days. Heat exhaustion and stroke become greater risks as well.

With higher temperatures, evaporation rates also increase. As a result, more moisture is drawn into the air and humidity rises as well. The heat and humidity combination produce higher heat indices elevating the risk for heat related ailments.

The effects are greater in larger cities where bricks, concrete and pavement absorb more heat, which is why urban thermometers typically check in higher than those in outlying areas.

According to Climate Matters, 2014 was the hottest year on record globally. The top ten hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998.

Scientists attribute these rises to added greenhouse gasses making it into the atmosphere.

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Only a third through http://www.wbrz.com/news/only-a-third-through/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/only-a-third-through/ Weather Wed, 15 Jul 2015 5:34:57 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Only a third through

Every day so far this July has surpassed 90 and there are many more are to come. On average, the Baton Rouge area registers 90 days in the 90s. Tuesday marked the 37th for 2015.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Wednesday will be hazy, hot and humid with a high temperature in the mid 90s. The heat index will be over 100 in the afternoon quickly exhausting those partaking in outdoor activity. Please stay hydrated and take breaks. Not much relief is expected at night. Despite clear skies, upper 70s is as low as thermometers will go.

Looking ahead: The week will wrap up with a pair of partly sunny days that will both have temperatures climbing into the mid 90s after mornings in the mid 70s. Showers continue to be a tough buy and will be through the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A ridge will stay put over the Arklatex region into the weekend promoting subsidence and serving as the key limiting factor in afternoon convection. The subsidence is warming the atmosphere and lessening lapse rates while also boosting surface temperatures into the mid and upper 90s—about 3-5° above average for the time of year. A surface high meandering about the Gulf of Mexico will make local stop around Saturday just reinforcing the warmth and drier conditions. Certainly, near coastal influences, there may be enough moisture to kick out a quick, low-topped shower but most locations will be keeping it dry even through the weekend. By next weekend, the ridge may retreat far enough to the west that some pieces of upper-level energy may be able to ride its eastern flank and help instigate a few cooling showers.

--Josh

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Unwavering http://www.wbrz.com/news/unwavering/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/unwavering/ Weather Tue, 14 Jul 2015 5:50:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Unwavering

Another July day of heat and humidity lies ahead.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: No surprise but as advertised we'll roll forward with a persistent and steamy July pattern. This afternoon will be hot and humid with highs in the mid 90s and feels-like temperatures over 100. Skies will be mostly sunny. Tonight we expect clear and warm conditions with lows in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: No need to deviate from the script above as we don't look for significant day-today changes to the weather through Friday. Cloud coverage may vary a touch from one afternoon to the next but that is about it. Highs will be in the mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A straight-forward summer setup will be in place this week. A 500mb (mid-upper level) ridge will remain overhead through Friday. This ridge will promote subsidence and combined with the warmer temperatures aloft, afternoon convection will be greatly limited. The high heat and humidity will create very unstable surface air so it is feasible that one updraft or two are stronger enough to bust through and generate a shower but a pretty dry pattern by July standards is in place. As mentioned, this ridge will create warmer, drier conditions and we expect afternoon highs to stick in the mid 90s through the week. With humidity the heat index will be over 100° for several hours each afternoon. As the ridge retreats westward this weekend, a few bits of energy riding its eastern edge could spur a shower or two, but the associated northwesterly flow will bring a 1-2° drop in dew points also-not enough to make it feel less humid but enough to allow an additional warm-up on afternoon thermometers.

--Josh

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Special advisory names season's third storm http://www.wbrz.com/news/special-advisory-names-season-s-third-storm/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/special-advisory-names-season-s-third-storm/ Weather Mon, 13 Jul 2015 12:31:48 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Special advisory names season's third storm

Tropical Storm Claudette has formed off of the North Carolina coast.

Just before noon CDT, satellite data indicated that Claudette had taken on tropical characteristics with winds of 50mph, prompting the National Hurricane Center to issue a special advisory.

Claudette is somewhat of a surprise, having only a 10% chance of development Monday Morning under very harsh conditions.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 70 miles outward from Claudette's center.

Regardless, the tropical system will be a fish storm, forecast to remain out at sea as it accelerates northeastward through Tuesday eventually becoming post-tropical.

Stay with wbrz.com/weather and follow our team on Twitter @2StormView and Facebook at WBRZ Weather for the latest.


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Plenty more heat http://www.wbrz.com/news/plenty-more-heat/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/plenty-more-heat/ Weather Mon, 13 Jul 2015 5:37:58 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Plenty more heat

We're into it now, the summer steam is on and showing no signs of shutting down.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Your Monday carries over the weekend weather. Mostly sunny skies will allow a high temperature in the mid 90s. Humidity stays high and thus "feels-like" temperatures will jump into the low 100s during the peak heat of the afternoon. Tonight will be clear but stay warm with lows in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead: No significant changes to the forecast are in store for this week. Each day will be mostly to partly sunny with a lot of humidity causing heat indices to be in the low 100s. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s and low temperatures will be in the upper 70s. Showers will be very hard to come by with rain chances below 10% each day.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The ridge of high pressure that has been steering the heat and calmer weather this weekend will stay in place this week, though weakening somewhat. Still, the influence will be great enough that mainly clear skies, mostly dry weather and hot temperatures will be able to continue. By next weekend, the ridge will slide westward introducing northwesterly flow to the area. This could introduce some slightly drier air which would actually allow temperatures to warm a little further. It would also place us on the periphery of the high allowing any minor disturbance riding around the high to help kick out a shower or two.

--Josh

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DON'T feel the burn http://www.wbrz.com/news/don-t-feel-the-burn/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/don-t-feel-the-burn/ Weather Fri, 10 Jul 2015 5:28:56 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus DON'T feel the burn

The forecast performed well again yesterday with 30% of the area collecting an afternoon shower. We anticipated most of the action to stay south of the interstates, and it did, except for one shower that came into Baton Rouge during the evening.

Rain chances will dwindle as we get into the weekend. As a result, sun and heat will increase.

THE FORECAST:

Today and tonight: Geographical rain coverage around the forecast area will run similar to Thursday. About 30% of us will snag a cooling afternoon downpour before sun returns. Overall, we can expect a partly sunny day with highs in the low 90s and high humidity making it feel like over 100° in the afternoon away from any pop-up showers. Tonight skies will clear and thermometers will stay in the 70s.

Looking ahead: Your weekend will be hot. A fair weather regime will bring mostly sunny skies allowing temperatures to soar into the mid 90s. With no respite from humidity, the afternoon heat index will exceed 100. If you have plans to enjoy the outdoors, just be sure not to over-exert, stay hydrated and wear sunscreen-burn times will be under 15 minutes. While a stray shower can't be ruled out, the chances are too low for mention.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The well-advertised upper ridge and surface high pressure system will alas arrive tonight. Just prior to that, would could see an isolated shower bubble up, but fewer are expected than Thursday. This weekend, the ridge aloft will promote subsidence and lessening lapse rates and a surface high will inhibit convergence. Thus, high temperatures will be boosted above the low 90s seen all week. Dew points in the mid 70s will work with the heat to generate heat indices over 100°. Feasibly, low-end heat advisory criteria could be met, so don't be surprised if the NWS issues some bulletins. Regardless, you'll want to take the standard hot weather precautions-water, limited exertion and sunscreen. The ridge will move into Texas on Monday again placing our area on the periphery and opening the way to any upper level waves. Right now, forecast models are not seeing any and keep the region mostly dry through Tuesday. Though, 4 ENTIRELY dry days for the entire forecast area in Mid-July seems like a stretch so we'll keep an eye out for those pop-up showers.

--Josh

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