WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2015, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Fri, 29 May 2015 22:05:47 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 No sixties today, but a better chance of showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-sixties-today-but-a-better-chance-of-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-sixties-today-but-a-better-chance-of-showers/ Weather Fri, 29 May 2015 5:57:13 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III No sixties today, but a better chance of showers

Happy Friday everyone! A muggier start this morning but still pleasant! As we get closer to the noon hour, we'll begin to see a few isolated thunderstorms pop up thanks to the extra heat and humidity. We'll likely even see a few coastal sprinkles earlier than that.

Expect the storms to become more scattered in the afternoon. If you're headed to the box, you will have to watch the sky as you may have to dodge some showers and thunderstorms through the breaks of sunshine. High temperatures will reach 87 degrees this afternoon.

Into the evening, showers should shut down, and we'll keep partly cloudy skies overnight with lows in the lower 70s.

Scattered showers return through the weekend. Overall, sunshine and storms are expected but no major washouts. Expect hit and miss showers to dodge with a slightly better chance of showers on Sunday.

I'll be here through the weekend and Josh is in tonight!

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz;  En español: @RG3wbrzES

 

~RG3


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More sun but showers don't leave http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-sun-but-showers-don-t-leave/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-sun-but-showers-don-t-leave/ Weather Thu, 28 May 2015 6:00:40 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III More sun but showers don't leave

Yes, more sunshine today! Thanks to some dry air here along the ground, our temperatures dropped into the mid 60s. The humidity will surely return though and that will helps some showers form along the coast this morning, moving inland by the afternoon. Many of you may not see showers, but overall you can expect isolated coverage throughout the day.

Expect a high of 85 and overnight, we'll drop only into the lower 70's again with partly cloudy skies.

Rain coverage stays lower overall through the weekend, but higher than today as humidity returns. By the way, don't call me Shirley.

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

~RG3


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NOAA predicts quieter 2015 hurricane season http://www.wbrz.com/news/noaa-predicts-quieter-2015-hurricane-season/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/noaa-predicts-quieter-2015-hurricane-season/ Weather Wed, 27 May 2015 11:29:48 AM Meteorologists Josh Eachus & Robert Gauthreaux NOAA predicts quieter 2015 hurricane season

On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their annual outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season.

NOAA is anticipating below normal activity during the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Forecasters have projected a 70 percent likelihood of 6-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 0-2 major hurricanes (category 3 strength or higher). There is a 20 percent chance of a near normal season.

"A below-normal season doesn't mean we're off the hook. As we've seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities," said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew - a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.

In April, Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University predicted 7 named storms and 3 hurricanes with one reaching major classification - the most conservative outlook they have ever issued.

Annual averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Both NOAA and CSU experts believe the focus of this year's outlook is the expectation of a moderate to strong El Nino developing this summer, having its greatest impact at the peak of hurricane season-late August through September. El Nino creates stronger wind shear across the Atlantic Tropical Basin which tends to diminish tropical cyclone development. In addition, tropical ocean waters in the Atlantic remain around average, where warmer waters would aid cyclone development.

This outlook includes Tropical Storm Ana, but experts say the pre-season storm is not the indicator of an active season. Ana's development along a stalled front is typical of pre-season storms-whereas peak season named storm originate from low pressure systems that move off of the African Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season featured well below average action as forecast by NOAA and CSU. According to the National Hurricane Center, in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (which measures the combined strength and duration of all tropical cyclones), tropical activity was nearly 72 percent below the 1981-2010 average. Furthermore, there were no United States hurricane strikes for only the seventh time since 1951-- 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2010, 2013 being the other years. The United States continues a record-breaking stretch without a major hurricane landfall in the United States. The most recent was Wilma in 2005.

With below normal activity over the last two seasons, and no landfalls in Louisiana since Isaac in 2012, now more than ever it is important to remember, "it only takes one." Seasonal forecasts haven proven effective in identifying the amount of tropical activity in a given season, but cannot yet determine WHERE this activity will occur.

It was Sullivan who summed things up best with a simple baseball analogy. "No matter how many pitches mother nature throws at us from only a few to a whole lot, if one of those pitches get through the strike zone we can be in for a lot of trouble."

All through the season, check in with the WBRZ Weather Team on News 2, here on wbrz.com/weather and please keep up with us on social media for the very latest:

Facebook: WBRZ Weather
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Thunderstorms return today http://www.wbrz.com/news/thunderstorms-return-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/thunderstorms-return-today/ Weather Wed, 27 May 2015 6:20:31 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Thunderstorms return today

 

We are under a marginal risk for severe weather. This is fairly common, but the biggest risks we are expecting will be heavy rain and gusty winds.

Expect a strong line of storms to come through later this morning. These storms will be bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds through the area. Once we reach the afternoon, some more isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Expect a high temperature of 86 degrees today, and showers should calm down overnight with a low of 71. Moving into tomorrow, expect more showers in the forecast.

 

Stay connected with us on social media through day to stay updated.

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrzES

 


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No rest for the soggy http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rest-for-the-soggy/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rest-for-the-soggy/ Weather Tue, 26 May 2015 5:55:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus No rest for the soggy

We can expect more showers and thunderstorms, some of which may create additional heavy rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The call for today is a tough one. It appears as though another area of heavy storms could develop through the day; however the overnight action may have stabilized the atmosphere enough to trim back intensity today. No less, with the National Weather Service mentioning flood potential, we’ll continue to caution for that possibility as well. The call—mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms, some of which could be heavy. Highs will be in the low 80s with lows around 70.

Looking Ahead: The persistent and unsettled pattern will continue for the next several days. Wednesday through Friday, we can expect more than half of the WBRZ viewing to pick up rain each afternoon with highs staying in the mid 80s and lows remaining around 70. Again, a few storms may bring downpours and frequent lightning with isolated damaging wind gusts.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper trough and associated wave of energy is carving through the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley. As the wave and accompanying increased lift move over the Louisiana Gulf Coast, where ample instability is in place, efficient, rain-making thunderstorms will develop. Fortunately, the most favorable wind conditions aloft to support severe weather will be north of the area, but the strong downdrafts with area storms could along be enough for some gusty winds. In addition, the water-logged storms will generate dangerous cloud to ground lightning. There is some question as to how this will play out into the afternoon hours as convective overturning from the active morning storms may limit development later. With enough drying and warming, we could see a weak shortwave help to spark off some more late day rain. We’ll watch how this evolves through the day but confidence is not too high in the near term forecast. Action will translate eastward into the overnight hours. The remainder of the week reverts back to the same old pattern of daytime instability triggering midday to early evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Still, downpours will be possible with some of these storms.

--Josh

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Tornado Watch until 5am Tuesday http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-until-5am-tuesday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-until-5am-tuesday/ Weather Mon, 25 May 2015 11:08:34 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Tornado Watch until 5am Tuesday

The National Weather Service has issued a TORNADO WATCH for the entire WBRZ viewing area until 5am Tuesday. This includes the Parishes of East Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. Mary, Tangipahoa, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana in Louisiana and the Counties of Amite, Pike and Wilkinson in Mississippi.

A TORNADO WATCH means conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and around the watch area. Those living in the watch area should be alert to threatening weather and have access to changing information, including warnings.

A squall line moving through Eastern Texas and Central Louisiana will continue a movement off to the east-southeast overnight. While some weakening in this line is anticipated with the loss of optimal daytime heating, the thunderstorms have been robust into the nighttime hours thus far and have a history of producing tornadoes, damaging winds and torrential rain. The line is expected to reach the Mississippi River between 2 and 4am.

In addition to the tornado watch, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH is also in effect for the enitre area until 8am. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means the region could see rapid ponding of water in urban areas, the flooding of small streams, quick rises in river levels ad complications with metropolitan drainage systems.

This storm system could produce rainfall rates of nearly 5 inches per hour.

Stay connected with our weather team on-air and on social media as this system evolves overnight. If any warnings are issued, we will have the latest.

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In addition, you can track the storms live on radar via our weather app. WBRZ WX in the App. Store and Google Play.


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Tornado watch continues until 10 p.m. this evening http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-continues-until-10-p-m-this-evening/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-continues-until-10-p-m-this-evening/ Weather Sun, 24 May 2015 4:03:14 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Tornado watch continues until 10 p.m. this evening

The National Weather Service has issued a *TORNADO WATCH* until 10:00 p.m. Sunday evening.

The overall threat for tornadoes is fairly low, however the chance for a storm or two to become strong before sunset exists for the area.

Stay connected on social media for the latest updates, as well as WBRZ, Cox Cable Channel 18/Digital channel 2.3.

Facebook: WBRZ Weather Team

Twitter: @2stormview

 

Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux is the meteorologist on duty this evening.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz  En espanol: @RG3wbrzES

 

 


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Inland flooding http://www.wbrz.com/news/inland-flooding/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/inland-flooding/ Weather Fri, 22 May 2015 11:08:12 AM Meteorologists Josh Eachus & Robert Gauthreaux Inland flooding

Aside from surge and tide impacts, widespread heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones may produce amounts in excess of 6 inches. This may even occur well inland and away from where the storm made initial landfall. 25 percent of tropical cyclone deaths of the last 50 years are a direct result of inland flooding.

Destructive and possibly deadly flooding may be the result. Even after the storm has passed, water runoff can bulge rivers and streams elevating the flood threat days later.

The most pronounced example of inland flooding came in 2001. Tropical Storm Allison produced more than 40 inches of rain in nearby Houston, TX. Killing 41 and causing $5 billion in damage.

No matter the strength of the storm, torrential rain is a threat in every tropical cyclone. Specific amounts depend on a cyclone's speed and size as well as the geography and geology of the area being affected. Slower, larger storms tend to generate more rainfall.

Tropical cyclones approaching the United States are not only a threat to coastal residents. If you live anywhere in the path of a storm, even well after landfall, be sure you are prepared for the possibility of inland flooding.

You can view our one-hour special, "Weathering the Storm" on Sunday, May 31 from 6-7pm on WBRZ News 2.

The WBRZ Weather Team will bring you more throughout the week, featuring additional information about tropical cyclones through Hurricane Preparedness Week. You can get much more by also visiting www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

All through the season, check in with the WBRZ Weather Team on News 2, wbrz.com/weather and please keep up with us on social media for the very latest:

Facebook: WBRZ Weather
Twitter: @2StormView
App. Store & Google Play: WBRZ WX

 


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Storm surge http://www.wbrz.com/news/storm-surge/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/storm-surge/ Weather Fri, 22 May 2015 10:55:40 AM Meteorologists Josh Eachus & Robert Gauthreaux Storm surge

Considered the most life-threatening of tropical hazards is the storm surge. Since 1963, storm surge has caused over half of the tropical cyclone deaths in the United States. Water (including inland flooding), and not wind, has accounted for more than 90% of tropical cyclone deaths.

This particular danger can be put into perspective by considering that 6 inches of fast-moving water can topple an adult and 2 feet of rushing water can float a sport utility vehicle.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines storm surge as an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm's winds. Storm surge can reach heights well over 20 feet and can span hundreds of miles of coastline. In the northern hemisphere, the highest surge values typically occur in the right front quadrant of a hurricane where winds are blowing onshore. More intense and larger hurricanes produce higher surge.

Astronomical tides can be exaggerated by storm surges, creating even higher tides. A tropical cyclone making landfall during a high tide with large waves can create remarkable property damage and coastal erosion.

In 2005, Hurricane Katrina produced a 27-foot tide on the Mississippi Coast.

Storm surge can rush a long distance inland. Bayous, lakes and rivers can overflow their banks creating serious flood risks well away from the coast.

This year, the National Hurricane Center will roll out two new hurricane products.

Storm surge watches and warnings will be issued to alert coastal residents of the life-threatening danger posed by inland-bound sea waters.

In addition to that, a graphic will accompany the warnings. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will highlight inundation levels at geographical areas to provide a reasonable worst case scenario for specific locations.

You can view our one-hour special, "Weathering the Storm" on Sunday, May 31 from 6-7pm on WBRZ News 2.

The WBRZ Weather Team will bring you more throughout the week, featuring additional information about tropical cyclones through Hurricane Preparedness Week. You can get much more by also visiting www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

All through the season, check in with the WBRZ Weather Team on News 2, wbrz.com/weather and please keep up with us on social media for the very latest:


Facebook: WBRZ Weather
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Memorial Day Weekend begins http://www.wbrz.com/news/memorial-day-weekend-begins/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/memorial-day-weekend-begins/ Weather Fri, 22 May 2015 6:29:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Memorial Day Weekend begins

With a weak cold front through to the Gulf, much of the region will end the week on a quieter note.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As we end what has been an unsettled week, a cold front is locked up in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In nearby coastal parishes inland to areas south of I-10, this may help churn up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms again. However, most locations north of there will be warm and slightly less humid with highs in the mid 80s. Morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine. Overnight expect mostly clear skies with a low in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: Memorial Day Weekend will combine all three "S's." Sun, steam and steams will be the rule with days beginning muggy and near 70 followed by fast warm ups into the upper 80s. The daytime warmth and humidity will interact with marine breezes to kick up isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. No washouts are anticipated and there may be a few spots that stay entirely dry. Just be aware that with a pop-up storm you'll need to take the party inside for a few minutes. More unsettled weather returns on Memorial Day and continues next week.

| Don't forget to check out Meteorologist Josh Eachus 2nd annual climate prediction for the upcoming summer. He discusses any expected temperature extremes and the tropics. CLICK HERE FOR MORE. |

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak and dissipating cold front has parked in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Its proximity to the local may aid in shower and thunderstorms development in Southern Louisiana Parishes through Friday but further inland some drier air aloft behind the front should quell the action. On Saturday the front will begin a northward retreat as a warm front and this bring isolated afternoon storm chances around the region. A warm regime remains in place through Sunday with the isolated rain chances. By Monday, a deeper trough will cut through the South and return southwesterly flow to the local area. With this will come increased rain chances, especially as waves passing through the region during peak heating help to enhance widespread activity.

--Josh

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Trigger http://www.wbrz.com/news/trigger/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trigger/ Weather Thu, 21 May 2015 5:49:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trigger

A cold front will approach the area on Thursday helping to kick out additional showers and thunderstorms. This will serve as that "trigger" that we have been lacking over the last few days. No significant changes to temperatures or humidity are expected behind the front

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will see skies clouding up much quicker than previous days as an approaching cold front taps into a warm, humid, unstable air mass. Highs will try to top out in the mid 80s around midday. Showers and thunderstorms will be developing throughout the day with scattered to widespread action likely by afternoon. As has been the case over the last few days, a storm or two could turn strong with gusty wind and downpours. Overnight, we'll see activity gradually dissipating with lows getting into the middle 60s behind that front.

Looking Ahead: Friday may start off with just a touch less humidity than previous days on account of a weak cold front. However, the afternoon will be warm with a high in the mid 80s. With a weakening front locked up on the Gulf Coast afternoon showers and storms will again be a possibility, especially south of the Interstates. For the Memorial Day Weekend, steam will return in full. Saturday is the best bet to stay dry, and while no washouts are foreseen, prepare to do some afternoon shower dodging along with the burger flipping.

| Don't forget to check out Meteorologist Josh Eachus 2nd annual climate prediction for the upcoming summer. He discusses any expected temperature extremes and the tropics. CLICK HERE FOR MORE. |

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak upper level trough in the Northeastern United States is helping to nudge a cold front through the region. This front will aid with the low-level convergence and the lift needed to spark off additional showers and thunderstorms. A disturbance in the upper levels later Thursday may also enhance convection. With the front positioned over the region, it may take some time to shut everything down on Thursday Night, even with the loss of heating. By Friday, the front will stall on the Louisiana Coast but in residing there will help to squeeze out a few more showers and storms on Friday, especially in coastal locations. Over the weekend, the front will disintegrate and the southerly flow of steam will return. A weak ridge in the Southeast U.S. may stall the convective action for a day meaning Saturday is out best bet to stay entirely dry. Otherwise, the holiday weekend will be warm and humid with highs near 90° and lows near 70°. There won't be any true triggering mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms other than marine breezes and daytime warmth so only isolated convection is expected through Sunday. A stronger trough approaching from the west on Monday may increase the rain spread.

--Josh

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EACHUS: sweating while sweating it out http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-sweating-while-sweating-it-out-72902/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-sweating-while-sweating-it-out-72902/ Weather Wed, 20 May 2015 10:35:05 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus EACHUS: sweating while sweating it out

Into the summer we go. There are some things southerners know for sure about this time of year. It is going to be hot, it is going to be humid and SEC Football is only about three months away. What we don't know is most concerning, and that is if whether or not the tropics will supply any shenanigans. Using history and long term global trends, it is time to predict the climate story for Summer 2015.

As I predicted in November, winter ended up being cooler than average with near normal rainfall and even a few flirtations with frozen precipitation. January was the coldest month and February was coldest relative to average. Still, it wasn't as chilling and there weren't as many freezes as winter 2013-14.

That being said, I've identified 5 years since 1950 with numbers similar to this past winter. In addition to that, I'm including 8 summers in which El Nino was prominent as it is expected to be this year. Armed with the all-time averages for comparison, let's see how the upcoming summer may shape up.

The 3 Predictions:

-Confidence levels in the predictions are given in five levels from low (1) to high (5).
-Predictions qualified with "slightly" refer to numbers above or below average but within the normal range.
-Predictions qualified with "well" refer to numbers outside of the normal range.

1. Moderate confidence prediction (3): SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

•Average summer temperature: 80.7°
•Normal range in summer temperature: 79.6 - 81.8°

In the 8 El Nino summers considered, there was little change from normal summer temperatures. However, the 5 similar years from the past had a consistent bias to warmer temperatures-pushing the predictive mercury up a bit. Another interesting trend was discovered. Despite July normally being the warmest month of the year, in 4 of the 5 similar years, August was the hottest month.

*Bonus Prediction (3): August will be more of scorcher than usual

2. Moderately high confidence prediction (4): NORMAL PRECIPITATION

•Average summer precipitation: 20.7"
•Normal range in summer precipitation: 15.0 - 26.4"

In the 5 similar years considered, none strayed from the normal range of precipitation. For the 8 El Nino summers, 2 were just below and 2 were just above. Strangely, the wettest year examined (1991, 27"), involved no tropical precipitation. The next two wettest comparable summers in the group of 13 were 2011 and 1987. Each brought nearly 10" of tropical precipitation. With summertime pop-up storms a given; only tropical rain could bust this prediction.

3. Moderate confidence prediction (3): SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TROPICAL ACTIVITY

12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major--those are the historical averages for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Among 5 similar years from the past and 8 El Nino summers, 4 of 13 have produced below normal tropical cyclone activity. While that may provide some reassurance, I assure you that history can assure nothing more.

In our similar summers, 2004, 2007 and 2011 brought very active hurricane seasons. Matthew, Humberto and Lee were all tropical storms that dumped heavy rain in Louisiana.

El Nino summers tend to produce less "action" across the basin, and in 7 of the 8 El Nino summers used in this study that was the case. However, a closer examination reinforces the adage that "it only takes one." In 1957, there were only 8 named storms but 3 of them affected Louisiana-Major Hurricane Audrey, and Tropical Storms Bertha and Esther. Major Hurricane Betsy struck in 1965 when there were just 6 named storms. These years included two of the strongest El Ninos on record.

Remember, while the meteorological sciences have advanced to the point of being able to predict, with confidence, the amount of activity there will be, we cannot yet estimate months in advance where that will occur.
Louisiana averages a hurricane strike every 7-8 years. The last was Isaac in 2012.

In summary, we should expect to sweat through a seasonably hot summer while sweating it out over a couple of tropical systems--even if fewer than normal.

Making the Predictions:

80 years of Baton Rouge area weather data was collected and analyzed. Examining past weather statistics and identifying trends allows forecasters to identify long-term trends and patterns. In addition, global circulations such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation were considered. Believe it or not, water temperatures in the Western Pacific can and do have a large impact on weather around the globe!

Predictions based on large scale patterns and climate statistics are certainly viable but much more prone to error than near-term forecasts given on a daily basis. For that reason, stick with the WBRZ Weather team for timely and accurate updates throughout this upcoming summer!

Please, stay connected and share your thoughts with me!

If you have any questions or feedback regarding this research, please contact Meteorologist Josh Eachus at:

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Email: jeachus@wbrz.com

 


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More sun than storms http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-sun-than-storms/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-sun-than-storms/ Weather Wed, 20 May 2015 6:04:03 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More sun than storms

Overall the unsettled pattern continues with at least isolated showers developing each afternoon into the holiday weekend.

Tuesday's forecast performed alright, but could have been a bit better. Geographically, we anticipated about 50% of the region would pick up rain while actually only about 30% did. Still, a large portion of the population noticed rain just because of that one hefty storm right over Baton Rouge.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday appears to be the most likely this week for a majority of the area to stay dry. Another quick steam up is expected with thermometers climbing into the upper 80s in a hurry. We're forecasting a high of 89, although an isolated reading in the low 90s seems feasible. Also rather isolated should be the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Again enough instability will be there to fire off the summer showers but we're not looking for widespread coverage-just the dodgy variety. Like Tuesday though, there is enough instability there to help any storms pack a punch. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the low 70s.

Looking Ahead: As we end the week, warmth and humidity will continue as will the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Rain coverage on Thursday and Friday will be in the 40-50% range with pop-up showers and storms mainly driven by the daytime heat. Speaking of that, highs will be in the upper 80s with lows around 70. The holiday weekend will be hot and steamy with highs near 90 and slightly lower rain chances.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: At the surface, a weak cold front continues to limp toward the Gulf Coast. In the upper levels, a trough is positioned over the Northeast U.S. while a ridge in the sub-tropical jet stream is edging northward through the Gulf. The battle between this ridge and the northern trough will have a large say in how afternoon showers and storms play out over the next few days. Driven by the trough, our "cold" front is expected to make a southward advance late Wednesday into Friday Morning. We'll leave rain chances in the isolated to widely scattered category over that time frame. The approaching front should be able to force out at least some added shower and storm activity on Thursday. By the weekend, the ridge will envelop more of the Eastern U.S. lending to an even drier forecast with only isolated activity. Additionally, a warm up can be expected with many local stations approaching the 90s in the afternoon hours.

--Josh

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The scattered stuff http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-scattered-stuff/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-scattered-stuff/ Weather Tue, 19 May 2015 5:59:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus The scattered stuff

Unlike the area-wide rain that fell on Monday, showers and thunderstorms of a more scattered nature are expected over the next few days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: For your Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop-especially after lunch when we reach our peak warmth around 88°. Some brief, locally heavy downpours and a lot of lightning will be possible. About 50% of the WBRZ viewing area will pick up rain. Overnight, showers will again slacken and lows won't fall out of the 70s.

Looking Ahead: Expect the active pattern to be upheld for the remainder of the week. With highs in the upper 80s and lows near 70°, afternoon scattered showers and storms will spark off thanks to daytime heating and the marine breezes. Away from any showers, skies will allow a mixture of sun and clouds. An early look at your Memorial Day Weekend calls for more of the same. Don't go cancelling plans, just prepare to sweat and dodge a few summertime storms!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weakening cold front is settling into the Gulf South. Merely a wind shift boundary, the front will serve as little more than a starting point for the afternoon showers and thunderstorms otherwise already expected. Forecast atmopsheric profiles don't show much change through the week-only a hint of drier, warmer air is shown to push in by week's end. Therefore, we'll be carrying 40-50% rain coverage each day with the potential for those numbers to be tweaked down Wednesday through Friday as a weak upper ridge moves overhead. Little modification is seen into the holiday, which means not the worst weather as it will simply be the dodgy stuff, but perhaps not ideal as there will be storms to dodge.

--Josh

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Storms again http://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-again/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-again/ Weather Mon, 18 May 2015 6:00:33 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Storms again

Another unsettled week is ahead with the best chance of showers and storms coming today.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another warm and steamy day is ahead with temperatures shooting into the middle 80s by noon time. Skies will bubble up with clouds as showers and storms begin to develop. High resolution forecast models are suggesting a line of showers and thunderstorms moving from WNW. to ESE. through the region between about 3pm and 8pm. Since there is good agreement amongst the models, don't be surprised if the late commute is a little messy. Any showers and storms could produce gusty wind, downpours and a lot of lightning. As the daytime heat wanes so too will showers and storms with most of the action shutting down by midnight. Lows will be in the low 70s.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday through Thursday we can expect warm and humid conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. A weak front will settle over the region and fall apart but will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms. As has been the drill, these will be primarily driven by afternoon warmth and thus will be the timing.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough is pushing into the Eastern United States and dragging a cold front through the Midwest and to the east as well. A disturbance moving through the basin of this trough will help to develop showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf South on Monday. There is plenty of warmth and humidity available to sustain showers and storms but few other ingredients are available to indicate a widespread severe threat. However, Saturday Night was a perfect example as to why we can't turn our back on a storm-if even only the pop-up summertime variety. The RPM and HRRR models are in agreement that a line of showers and thunderstorms will move from WNW to ESE through SE. LA. and S. Miss. during the later afternoon and evening hours. Within this line, we could certainly find some gusty winds, downpours and a lot of lightning. Over the next few days a weak front will settle into the area and begin to fall apart but still will be able to work with daytime warmth to fire off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. By the weekend, we'll likely see rain coverage start to slacken off a little bit.

--Josh

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Storms likely http://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-likely/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-likely/ Weather Fri, 15 May 2015 4:41:46 AM Expect shower and thunderstorms coverage to ramp up this afternoon compared to the last two days. Storms likely

THE FORECAST: Today and Tonight: Your wrap to the week will have more clouds than sun. Still, high temperatures will be getting into the mid 80s before a disturbance kicks out showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. At this time, there is no significant threat for severe storms, though downpours will be possible with any stronger business that develops. Some of the shower and storms may linger into the evening before activity fades overnight. Lows will hover around 70°. Looking Ahead: The weekend weather will be unsettled. While each day will allow some sunshine, that will only be an ingredient that enhances the development of pop-up showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours. At this time, Saturday appears to feature a slightly better chance for showers and storms that Sunday—with about half of the region picking up rain. Geographically speaking, no one spot stands a greater chance than another. Each day highs will reach the mid 80s with lows near 70°. The active pattern will also continue next week.

 

THE SCIENCE: Forecast Discussion: An upper wave passing to our northwest will tap into the warm and humid Gulf air in place and trigger showers and thunderstorms for Friday. The meat of this wave will remain well north of the area, so expect the highest rain chances along and north of I-10 with lesser chances closer to the coast. Into the weekend, forcing mechanisms will be fewer and farther between but daytime warmth and the marine breezes should be enough to spark off afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Forecast models hint at Saturday featuring higher coverage than Sunday, but we’ll need to monitor the fine details here on a day-to-day basis. Don’t look for much change in the long term pattern—showers and thunderstorms look to stay in the picture (at least during the afternoons) through mid-week.

--Josh

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Showers stay isolated today http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-stay-isolated-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-stay-isolated-today/ Weather Thu, 14 May 2015 5:56:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Showers stay isolated today

At least the weather is behaving as expected this week with no real surprises. Wednesday's forecast of 20% rain coverage in the WBRZ viewing area verified well.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be isolated this afternoon.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A few more showers and thunderstorms will be possible today compared to yesterday. After morning clouds and sprinkles, partly sunny skies will return with temperatures getting into the mid 80s. Deeper clouds will bubble up during the afternoon-a few of which may produce showers and thunderstorms. Rain will fall over about 30% of the WBRZ viewing area. Overnight we'll keep it muggy and near 70° with the possibility of a lingering shower.

Looking Ahead: Friday will feature more ingredients to support widespread showers and thunderstorms. An unsettled day with mostly cloudy skies will hold temperatures in the mid 80s with most locations finding showers and thunderstorms-especially from the mid-morning hours onward. Then, we should pick up a bit of sun each day this weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. However, the pattern remains favorable for showers and storms to spark off during the afternoon hours. It's not time to cancel plans yet, but have eyes to the sky and access to weather updates.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper trough swinging through the Texas Big Bend into the Great Plains States will pinwheel lobes of energy through our region today and tomorrow. These disturbances, timed right in the afternoon, will likely be able to tap into daytime heating and trigger showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere remains unstable and therefore it won't take much to get action going. More moisture and a more favorable flow aloft certainly makes Friday look like the day in which convection will be more widespread and potentially heftier. Over the weekend, deep southwesterly flow will remain. While upper-level forcing or lift isn't as pronounced, with instability in place, in won't take much to fire off afternoon storms. Lake and sea breezes will likely do the trick with a 40-50% chance (or coverage) of showers each day. Fairly stagnant in this pattern, don't look for much variation in temperatures either. Highs will be at or just above average in the mid-upper 80s with above average lows near 70s. Into next week, expect more of the same.

--Josh

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Less rain, more heat http://www.wbrz.com/news/less-rain-more-heat/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/less-rain-more-heat/ Weather Wed, 13 May 2015 6:17:22 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Less rain, more heat

Yesterday's forecast of 60% rain coverage verified well. A few of the storms, particularly in Iberville and Pointe Coupee Parishes, were stronger than expected. We'll get a mid-week break from widespread action before it picks up again on Thursday and Friday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: While not totally gone from the call, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be much more isolated in number and more locations will stay dry than not. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny, hot and humid with high temperatures topping out in the upper 80s. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with a low in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: To wrap up the week, fast moving upper-level disturbances will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. Each day will make it into the mid 80s. Thursday may see a bit more sunshine with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain coverage will be on the order of about 40%. Friday though will be mostly cloudy with even more widespread shower and storm activity. By the weekend, those PoPs will back off a bit and with more sun and less water from the skies, it will be hot and humid with highs approaching 90°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level ridge is sliding across the region today and that will serve to cap off the atmosphere with some warmer air. The result will be fewer showers and thunderstorms. Because a weak front is continuing to decay over the region, there is at least an element of forcing and a weak upper wave could assist in an isolated shower popping with the maximum daytime heating. Thursday through Sunday, the ridge axis will again be east of the area allowing a deeper southwesterly flow. As more disturbances are jettisoned through the pattern, we should be able to activate showers and thunderstorms-especially with daily highs in the mid-upper 80s and dew points near 70°. The wind speeds aloft are fairly weak and lapse rates are not overly impressive. While any storms can briefly turn strong, there is no appreciable threat for severe weather through the weekend.

--Josh

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More showers and storms http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-showers-and-storms/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-showers-and-storms/ Weather Tue, 12 May 2015 5:50:06 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More showers and storms

Yesterday's forecast of 70% rain coverage and a few strong storms verified well. Once again, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday looks like another fairly unsettled day. Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the lunch hours. Especially during the afternoon hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. High temperatures will top out in the mid 80s with plenty of sticky air staying in place. The threat for severe storms appears much lower today. After evening showers, the overnight hours should mark a break-off in shower and storm activity though many clouds will hold and thermometers won't drop below the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up to be a bit quieter than the opening two days of the week. While we can't entirely eliminate showers and storms from the forecast, area-wide coverage will back off. Thus, additional sunshine will mean warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s. Pop-up storm chances will increase each day Thursday through Saturday.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A cold front has stalled over the forecast area. While it is weakening and an upper trough has become detached from it and is moving away to the north, a general southwesterly flow aloft will continue to send waves of energy through our atmosphere. Moving over the dissipating front, the waves should help force out scattered showers and storms through Tuesday. The next significant wave is timed out on global models for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening-marking the most likely timeframe for our next round of showers. Then, an upper level ridge axis will push into the region Wednesday, providing a warming trend aloft and capping off any widespread convection for a few days. By Thursday Afternoon and especially Friday and Saturday, the breakdown of the ridge axis and return of energy moving through the upper levels will increase daily shower and thunderstorm chances, but they'll be much lower than early in the week-in the 20-40% range. No major changes are expected in temperatures through the weekend with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and lows barely below 70°.

--Josh

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More unsettled this week http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-unsettled-this-week/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-unsettled-this-week/ Weather Mon, 11 May 2015 5:58:10 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More unsettled this week

Humid weather will continue this week with the added wrinkle of many more showers and storms. Unlike last week, in which the region only saw isolated rain coverage, many more areas will pick up rain on a daily basis.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday will be steamy early with high temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s around midday. Clouds will increase then a weak cold front moving into the region will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Expect action to begin in Northwestern Parishes first and then spread southeastward into the Baton Rouge area early this afternoon. Scattered rain and storms will make it into the early evening hours meaning the come-home commute on I-10/12 could be aggravated further than usual. Any storms could produce gusty wind and downpours. This best chance for a severe storm will be north of the interstates. Given the chance for a stronger storm or two, it's a good idea to have access to weather alerts today. Overnight, clouds will stick along with humidity and a few lingering showers will be possible. The low will be near 70°.

Looking Ahead: For the upcoming week, expect a stretch of weather befitting of May. Through Friday we'll carry partly cloudy skies with at least 20-40% coverage in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Humidity will stick.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The upper ridge that stifled convection for most of last week and the weekend is pushing away to the east. With its exit, southwesterly flow is being reestablished aloft and waves of energy riding through the flow will help to spark off showers and thunderstorms this week. In addition, especially for Monday and Tuesday, a cold front parked and weakening over the area will also help to set off showers and thunderstorms. For this reason, we believe the first two days will provide the most widespread coverage in rain and thunderstorms. It is also worth noting that the front will stall over somewhere near or north of I-10, keeping the highest rain chances in those areas. As far as severe weather goes, while stray storm could turn strong, it appears the slower wind speeds aloft, lack of directional shear, and weaker temperature lapse rates will all really work against any vast severe threat. Still, the heat and humidity energy are there at the surface-not a bad idea to have a means of accessing weather information.

--Josh

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