WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2016, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Thu, 11 Feb 2016 00:02:23 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Beginning a brief warming trend http://www.wbrz.com/news/beginning-a-brief-warming-trend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/beginning-a-brief-warming-trend/ Weather Wed, 10 Feb 2016 5:37:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Beginning a brief warming trend

Each day through the reminder of the week will feature warmer temperatures before the next cold front arrives this weekend.

 

THE FORECAST:

 

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will be peaceful with winds slackened and sun shining. High temperatures will warm into the upper 50s. Overnight won’t be as chilly as previous nights. We’ll project a low around 40 degrees under clear skies.  

 

What’s Ahead? The week will end with above average temperatures. In response to sun and southwesterly winds, Thursday highs will run for the low 70s. Again on Friday, after a start around 50 degrees, a mostly sunny afternoon will offer a high in the low 70s. A few clouds may be possible late as another weak cold front comes into the area. The follow-up result will be cooler air returning for the weekend—which is looking dry and sunny.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A surface high pressure is slowly migrating from the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast United States. In doing so, local winds will begin to take on a southwesterly component through the overnight hours into the rest of the week. The tangible result will be much milder temperatures with highs reaching for the low 70s on both Thursday and Friday. As the regions sits in a persistent northwesterly flow aloft, in between a western ridge and eastern trough, another cold front will come into the area on Saturday. A strong 1045mb surface high pressure and associated northwesterly surface winds will send chilly air towards the Gulf Coast yet again. Expect below average temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday. By Monday, a region of positive vorticity advection ahead of a shortwave trough in the Mid-South will move a cold front into the area. This system should be potent enough to produce a few showers.

 

--Josh 

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Hang on to your hat, or mask, or beads! http://www.wbrz.com/news/hang-on-to-your-hat-or-mask-or-beads-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/hang-on-to-your-hat-or-mask-or-beads-/ Weather Tue, 9 Feb 2016 6:09:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Hang on to your hat, or mask, or beads!

After a chilly Fat Tuesday, quiet weather and warming temperatures will round out the week.

 

THE FORECAST:

 

Today and Tonight: Mardi Gras will be the coldest day of the upcoming week—though still sunny and dry. Highs will barely climb into the low 50s with continued northwesterly winds of about 10-15mph and gusts to 30mph. A *WIND ADVISORY* is once again in effect from 9am - 5pm. The nighttime hours will hover near freezing under clear skies with lighter breezes.

 

What’s Ahead? A gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. Under sunny skies, the afternoon will find high temperatures in the upper 50s. More sun is anticipated for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s and perhaps low 70s. Thursday Morning will be about 10 degrees cooler than Friday Morning with a low in the upper 30s. Another weak front is pegged for the weekend, with just a few passing clouds expected at this time.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: The general trough in the east, ridge in the west pattern will continue through Wednesday. High pressure in the Midwest will maintain northwesterly winds through Mardi Gras with cold air advection continuing. The result will be below average temperatures—a chilly Fat Tuesday will have highs struggling for the low 50s. The upper trough will shrink and migrate northeast on Thursday allowing a weak surface depression to develop between the strong high in the east and the next dropping into the Upper Midwest. A pseudo warm front will attempt to develop ahead of this depression and temperatures will respond for the final two days of the week by lifting above average in the afternoon. That next high will drive a cold front through the region into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, once again restoring below average temperatures for the second half of the weekend. This cold spell looks shorter lived however with the western ridge sliding east by early next week and ensemble means indicating above average temperatures along the Gulf Coast. A weak upper disturbance may bring the next shot at rain Monday—at the earliest.  

 

--Josh 

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Monday: sunny, windy with gusts over 30mph http://www.wbrz.com/news/monday-sunny-windy-with-gusts-over-30mph/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/monday-sunny-windy-with-gusts-over-30mph/ Weather Mon, 8 Feb 2016 6:20:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Monday: sunny, windy with gusts over 30mph

Overall, the upcoming weather pattern will be quiet. After a windy Lundi Gras, chilly temperatures will be ushered in for Mardi Gras.

 

THE FORECAST:

 

Today and Tonight: The new week will be welcomed by sunshine and wind. The afternoon will continue a trend of cooler than average temperatures as a week front slips through the region—reinforcing the chill. Highs will top out in the middle 50s. Winds will be gusty at times, and a wind advisory is in place from 9am – 6pm across the area. West-northwest winds will be sustained at 15-25mph with gusts over 30mph. Loose objects outside could blow around, high profile vehicles may feel a bit less control and parade floats could meet some issue. Overnight will be clear and cold with temperatures near freezing.

 

Looking Ahead: Mardi Gras will be the coldest day of the upcoming week—though still sunny and dry. Highs will barely escape the upper 40s with continued northwesterly winds of about 5-10mph. The nighttime hours will again be close to freezing under clear skies. Clouds will stand little chance through the remainder of the week with highs climbing from the upper 50s Wednesday to nearly 70 degrees by Friday.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough will dominate the Eastern Half of the U.S. through this week. Meanwhile, surface high pressure setup to the northwest will maintain deep northwesterly winds and clear skies for the local area. A strong surface low off of the East Coast of the United States will create a modest pressure gradient with the high to the northwest and thus winds will accelerate into the afternoon hours as a cold front passes through the region. Because of the strong winds aloft, a few gusts could be transported down to the surface. After this weak surface front passes by, the area will find temperatures warm slowly each day through Friday before another front arrives next week. Indeed, this is one of the quietest stretches we’ve had in quite some time.

 

--Josh 

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A fair trade http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-fair-trade/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-fair-trade/ Weather Fri, 5 Feb 2016 6:36:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus A fair trade

While below average temperatures are expected through Mardi Gras, so too are dry conditions.

 

THE FORECAST:

 

Today and Tonight: Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The Krewe of Southdowns will have quiet, chilly weather for their evening parade which rolls at 7pm. We’re forecasting clear skies, light winds and a temperature in the mid 40s. Overnight will be cold again with lows in the mid 30s. A few passing clouds are possible.

 

Up Next: A weak front passing through the region on Saturday will bring a few clouds and possibly a stray, light shower to southern and western areas. With the Spanish Town parade rolling at noon, expect partly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Afternoon highs will stretch for the upper 50s. Sunday Morning will start off chilly in the middle 30s with all sunshine and a high near 60 degrees in the afternoon. Another reinforcing shot of chilly air will arrive in time for Mardi Gras, but all clear skies are expected to continue.  

 

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Surface high pressure will remain in place through today. Nudging towards the Southeast U.S., the system will continue to promote clear skies and light winds. Overnight, easterly winds should limit a temperature tumble all the way to freezing, but it will remain cold and in the mid 30s. Plus, some cloud cover may inhibit full radiational cooling. The cloud cover would be noted due to an approaching shortwave trough scraping from the Lower Midwest to the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This feature will guide a reinforcing front through the area on Saturday. Limited moisture is expected to mean the front crosses with little more than a passing batch of clouds. Forecast models show a light shower over the Atchafalaya Basin and near the coast, and for that reason we won’t “turn our back” to this one and leave an isolated 10% mention on forecast boards. Broad surface high pressure will become reestablished in the Central U.S. on Sunday continuing the extended cool, dry, tranquil stretch of weather. Persistent northerly winds will continue to hold thermometers at or below average. By Mardi Gras another front and very deep trough will impact the Eastern U.S. with a very cold air mass. It looks as though the deepest pool of cool air will be shunted just northeast of the local area meaning temperatures shouldn’t be much cooler than anything already experienced this winter.

  

--JoshStay connected with me… share your thoughts! 

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Throw me something mista, like a jacket! http://www.wbrz.com/news/throw-me-something-mista-like-a-jacket-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/throw-me-something-mista-like-a-jacket-/ Weather Thu, 4 Feb 2016 6:16:33 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Throw me something mista, like a jacket!

The days to come will feature clear skies and cool temperatures. The tricky aspect of the forecast lies in the southern extent of a cold air mass diving into the Eastern U.S. next week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Crystal clear blue sky and abundant sunshine will greet your Thursday. The air will be crisp with northerly breezes holding temperatures in the mid 50s. Overnight will be quite cold with many locations, especially north of I-12, flirting with freezing. We’re forecasting 32 degrees in Baton Rouge.

Up Next: Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s. The Krewe of Southdowns will have quiet, chilly weather for their evening parade which rolls at 7pm. The weekend will begin cold—in the mid 30s. A reinforcing front will then cross the region. At this time, a dry atmosphere should mean little more than passing clouds on Saturday Afternoon as highs stretch for the upper 50s. However, with a weak cold front passing through, it would be unwise to entirely rule out a stray shower. Make no mistake; this will be no serious consequence to the Spanish Town parade at noon. Sunday is looking mostly sunny with a morning low in the mid 30s and highs in the upper 50s. We are keeping an eye on more cold air for Mardi Gras and beyond. While the current forecast keeps numbers similar to what we’ve seen, some of the coldest air this winter isn’t out of the question!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: High pressure will remain positioned over the Mid-South through Friday Morning. The clockwise wind flow around this system at the surface will result in persistent northerly breezes for the local area—maintaining cool air advection processes. Near freezing temperature may be observed on Friday Morning before the high and a weak upper ridge move over Louisiana thus lessening winds and allowing some compressional warming into the afternoon. Highs will still be below average and in the upper 50s. A few subtle features will dictate the weekend weather. The original surface high will move into the Southeast U.S. Another strong surface high will be moving into the Lower Midwest and the local area will be caught between, creating weak surface trough with a shortwave aloft. This “disturbance” will guide a reinforcing cold front through the area as the western high attempts to overtake the region. With this weak wave and front, while a shower is feasible, a dry atmosphere should mean little more than passing clouds with the frontal passage on Saturday. Sunday will be dry, cool and sunny with that second high in place locally. Another, deeper trough will dig into the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Yet again we’ll notice a dry frontal passage. The bigger question lies in temperatures. The GFS model would have some VERY cold air making it all the way to the Gulf Coast. This would result in highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The ECMWF is less aggressive holding cold air farther north. We’ve blended the two solutions for now, forecasting temperatures akin to what has already been felt this winter.

--Josh

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Cooling trend http://www.wbrz.com/news/cooling-trend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/cooling-trend/ Weather Wed, 3 Feb 2016 6:09:35 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Cooling trend

With a cold front to the east, much cooler air will encompass the region through this week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds will break with sunshine returning for your Wednesday Afternoon. Northerly breezes of 5-10mph are bringing much cooler air to the region and thus we only expect about a 10 degree warm up into the low 60s. The nighttime hours will bring clear skies and even cooler temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Up Next: Thursday and Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s. Into the weekend, while Saturday may be just a touch warmer, not much change is expected from Friday. A weak disturbance crossing the region means, for now, we cannot rule out a passing shower Saturday and Sunday. However, the likely outcome will be no more than a few passing clouds. Highs and lows will be in the upper 50s and mid 30s. Stay tuned as we monitor the trends!  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Quiet weather is expected through the week. Because the morning temperatures started off above average, Wednesday Afternoon may seem mild, but cold air advection will limit afternoon warming to only about 10-15 degrees. The cold air will continue to spill in overnight with lows responding by bottoming out in the upper 30s—below average. High pressure setting up in the Mid-South will keep clear skies and light northerly winds in place through the week. Therefore, Thursday and Friday should be very similar with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s. A one to two degree warming of highs and lows may be observed each day. There are some lingering questions as to how the weekend and early portion of next week will unfold. Both models identify a shortwave and associated cold front moving across the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday Afternoon into Sunday. While the ECMWF has been dry in recent runs, the more aggressive GFS model has now backed precipitation as well. Therefore, the likely outcome due to a dry air mass is that only a few passing clouds will accompany this cold front. Then, into next week, a deep trough is expected to bring VERY cold air to the Eastern United States. The southward extent of that cold pool is still unknown, so at this time, we’ll continue with a forecast of just slightly below average temperatures.

--Josh

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Tornado watch issued for WBRZ area until 7 p.m. http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-issued-for-wbrz-area-until-7-p-m-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-issued-for-wbrz-area-until-7-p-m-/ Weather Tue, 2 Feb 2016 1:33:34 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Tornado watch issued for WBRZ area until 7 p.m.

The National Weather Service has issued a *TORNADO WATCH* for parts of the WBRZ Weather forecast area until 7pm.

Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to organize and strengthen through the afternoon. The main threats will potentially include a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in excess 60mph.

As a storm system approaches from the west, it will produce more thunderstorms across our area. Instability has increased a bit this afternoon. It is expected to increase further with the addition of southeasterly winds, introducing more moisture into the evening. Because of this, the potential for severe thunderstorms will increase over the next several hours.

Scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms may continue overnight, but the severe weather threat will migrate northeastward away from the Baton Rouge area.


 Impact: A tornado, damaging wind gusts

 

Additional Bulletins: None.

 

Timing: Until later this evening.

 

Actions: Be alert to rapid changes in weather, have access to bulletins through the WBRZ WX app., the WBRZ Cable Weather Channel, WBRZ Weather on Facebook and @2StormView on Twitter. With both the weather app. and Twitter, you can change your cellular phone settings to allow push notifications and alerts for updates from the WBRZ Weather team. DO NOT drive any vehicle through flooded roadways. You risk stalling out and damaging your engine, or worse, being swept away. Secure light, loose outdoor objects. If you need to take shelter, bring your phone, tablet, or laptop and watch our continuous streaming coverage. You can also listen via Bluetooth in your Bluetooth enabled vehicle.

 

Remember: A watch means conditions are favorable for a specific hazard to develop in the future so you should have a readiness plan, a warning means a specific hazard is happening now and you need to take safety precautions immediately. The area is in a “slight” risk for severe weather—this means there is a higher chance than usual for strong thunderstorms.


Locations within the TORNADO WATCH area include the entire WBRZ viewing area.

 

A TORNADO WATCH means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, winds of 58 mph or higher and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or larger, in addition to heavy rain and dangerous lightning. Those in and around the watch area should monitor weather information closely for possible warnings.

 


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Gusty storms a possibility for Tuesday evening http://www.wbrz.com/news/gusty-storms-a-possibility-for-tuesday-evening/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/gusty-storms-a-possibility-for-tuesday-evening/ Weather Tue, 2 Feb 2016 6:06:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Gusty storms a possibility for Tuesday evening

A cold front will bring showers and potentially a few strong thunderstorms on Tuesday before much cooler air returns to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A mostly cloudy and mild beginning to Tuesday is expected. With continued southerly winds of 10-15mph, temperatures will make it into the mid 70s. While scattered showers are expected early, most rain activity will be reserved for the afternoon and evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to organize and push into the region during the second half of the day. Within this line, there could be a few strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. As the front slows this evening, heavy rain could persist for a few hours creating ponding of water in some spots. With all of that in mind, the late commute home from work and school could be a bit messy. A general west to east clearing is expected overnight with temperatures falling back into the 50s.

Up Next: By Wednesday Morning, rain will be over. Shortly thereafter, clouds will break with sun returning by afternoon. Cooler northerly breezes of 5-10mph will keep highs close to 60 degrees. The nighttime hours will bring clear skies and even cooler temperatures with lows in the mid 30s. Thursday and Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s.     

 

THE SCIENCE:


Here is a full video analysis from Meteorologist Josh Eachus:


Forecast Discussion: A broad and vigorous trough is gliding east across the United States while the associated surface low is lifting northeast from Kansas. A cold front is set up from Oklahoma southward into Eastern Texas. Ahead of this system, dew points are quite high for Early February with many locations returning numbers in the mid 60s. Temperatures are well above average also, and forecast to be in the mid 70s this afternoon. Surface based instability will be modest while helicity is once again expected to be high—another high shear, low instability environment that leaves us with a questionable severe weather threat. Low-level lapse rates are not that impressive into the afternoon, however the uplift generated by an approaching cold front should be enough to lift buoyant air into the far less stable mid-levels. This will kick off a line of showers and thunderstorms. As this line advances eastward, some storms could tap into the plentiful shear and develop enough rotation for an isolated tornado, but it is more likely that a dry pocket in the mid-levels is mixed down to the surface to create gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center has an area from Baton Rouge to New Orleans northeastward under a “slight risk” for severe storms, or a 15% chance of a severe storm within 25 miles of a given point. Overall, the more favorable ingredients appear to be along and north of I-12—especially into Mississippi. This is where the strongest jet stream will be in place with a little more mid-level spin available via the 500mb trough. High resolution models slow precipitation along the front this evening which could create a prolonged period of heavy rain, making some localized street flooding a possibility. Models disagree somewhat as to when the cold front will fully clear the area. The GFS is a little faster with the Euro holding some showers around for early Wednesday Morning. Regardless, sunshine and cooler temperatures are on tap for the remainder of the week. Forecast models diverge even more into the weekend with the GFS showing an impressive Gulf of Mexico low bringing rain to the area Sunday. The Euro is faster and weaker with some passing clouds or a shower Saturday Night. Stay tuned as we keep an eye on this next feature. Beyond that, the coldest air of the season may be on tap for next week.

--Josh

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Foggy and muggy to stormy and chilly http://www.wbrz.com/news/foggy-and-muggy-to-stormy-and-chilly/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/foggy-and-muggy-to-stormy-and-chilly/ Weather Mon, 1 Feb 2016 6:15:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Foggy and muggy to stormy and chilly

Two more mild afternoons can be expected before gusty thunderstorms return below average temperatures to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Dense morning fog will slowly dissipate to another mostly cloudy and mild afternoon. A stray shower isn’t impossible but most locations will remain dry today. Temperatures will reach the middle 70s again as southerly winds of 5-10mph continue. Overnight will bring patchy fog, a low in the mid 60s and perhaps a spotty shower.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday may begin mainly dry across the area and temperatures are expected to make it into the mid to upper 70s by early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the second half of the day though. Some of the storms could be strong or severe with gusty wind. The continuation of unsettled weather will be short-lived as rain is expected to wrap up by midnight. Much cooler air will then be ushered in with Wednesday Morning temperatures in the low 50s and not expected to rise much in the subsequent afternoon despite sun.    


Meteorologist Josh Eachus evaluate the severe storms potential and discusses a sharp temperature drop in this full, video weather briefing:


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A broad and vigorous trough in the Western United States is translating eastward with a low pressure system and attendant cold front currently positioned in Northern Texas. This front will be racing northward towards the great Lakes through Wednesday. Ahead of this system, southerly winds continue to transport unseasonably warm temperatures and dew point in the 60 degree range northward into the Central Gulf Coast. These factors will contribute to some instability by Tuesday; however the most pronounced lapse rates will remain well north of the local area. Upper level winds are southwesterly, creating a veering profile from ground to sky. An advancing surface trough will trigger showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday Afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. Due to some of the aforementioned ingredients, while scattered thunderstorms are likely, isolated severe storms are possible and this is reflected in the Storm Prediction Center’s “slight risk” for areas along and north of I-12. At this time, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are the primary threats. The cold front will push through by Wednesday returning below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.  

--Josh

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Ready to roll http://www.wbrz.com/news/ready-to-roll/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/ready-to-roll/ Weather Fri, 29 Jan 2016 6:03:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Ready to roll

A drier and warmer pattern takes shape for the weekend—with carnival season festivities enjoying cooperative weather.

Today and Tonight: Friday will feature a sunny and mild afternoon. High temperatures will make it into the upper 60s. The Krewe of Artemis can expect clear skies and temperatures near 60 degrees as they roll at 7pm. The overnight low will drop into the mid 40s.

Up Next: Saturday will be a touch warmer with highs in the low 70s and plenty of sunshine allowing Mystique parade-goers to perhaps wear short sleeves! With the Krewe of Orion taking to the streets of Baton Rouge at 6:30pm, temperatures will remain in the 60s with little more than a passing cloud. Nighttime lows won’t fall out of the mid 50s. On Sunday, fur coats will be required for the Krewe of Mutts, but everyone else may again leave jackets at home with highs in the mid 70s under partly sunny skies.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A surface high will set up in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday allowing winds to turn west and skies to stay clear. Positioned in Florida over the weekend, return flow will bolster highs above average and into the 70s. A few weak patches of energy will roll overhead through this time but should have little moisture to establish any more than some scarce clouds. One possible issue could be fog on Sunday and Monday Mornings as dew points rise into the low 60s. Then, a very deep trough is shown on the forecast models for early next week. This one will inspire a surface low to deepen in the Lower Midwest on Monday with a cold front charging eastward on Tuesday. At this time, we can see a fairly favorable jet stream, but it is unclear what, if any, parameters would be in place for severe weather. Regardless, a big clash in air masses always requires watching. The Storm Prediction Center has already hashed out a 15% risk area along and north of I-10 into Mississippi. Regardless, rainfall is likely during this event with all signs pointing towards a gloomy Tuesday. Much cooler than average temperatures will conclude next week with the aforementioned deep trough moving over the eastern third of the United States.  

--Josh

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Trend: 50s to 70s http://www.wbrz.com/news/trend-50s-to-70s/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trend-50s-to-70s/ Weather Thu, 28 Jan 2016 5:34:36 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trend: 50s to 70s

The area will undergo a warming trend through the weekend as quieter weather persists.

Today and Tonight: Skies will clear out on Thursday Afternoon with highs staying cool in the mid 50s. Winds will be northerly at about 5mph. At night and into Friday Morning, temperatures will again by chilly, but likely in the upper 30s. Skies will stay cloud free.

Up Next: As we transition into the weekend, the weather transitions into a warmer pattern. Look for sunshine and afternoon highs juts above average, in the middle 60s on Friday. Saturday will be warmer with a low in the mid 40s and highs reaching for 70 degrees. A pleasant evening is on tap for Mardi Gras festivities around Baton Rouge. Sunday is going to be even milder with lows in the mid 50s and highs in the mid 70s. No rain is expected through the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Exiting will be a positively tilted trough that has allowed a cold front to linger in the North Central G.O.M. with stubborn clouds stretching northwestward to Baton Rouge. The axis will clear Louisiana on Thursday Morning with negative vorticity advection taking over and high pressure building in at the surface. A clearing trend will be the result with temperature staying below average through Friday Morning as winds go from north to calm. The surface high will set up in the Gulf on Friday allowing winds to turn west and skies to stay clear. Positioned in Florida over the weekend, return flow will bolster highs above average and into the 70s. A few weak patches of energy will roll overhead through this time but should have little moisture to establish any more than some passing clouds. A very deep trough is shown on the forecast models for early next week. This one will inspire a surface low to deepen in the Lower Midwest on Monday with a cold front charging eastward on Tuesday. At this time, we can see a fairly favorable jet stream, but it is unclear what, if any, parameters would be in place for severe weather. Regardless, a big clash in air masses always requires watching. Much cooler than average temperatures will conclude next week with the aforementioned deep trough moving over the eastern third of the United States.  

--Josh

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Cooler but drier http://www.wbrz.com/news/cooler-but-drier/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/cooler-but-drier/ Weather Wed, 27 Jan 2016 6:09:29 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Cooler but drier

An 8° temperature tumble was noted around noon Tuesday as a cold front passed through Baton Rouge. Chilly temperatures have returned and will stay in place through Friday Morning.

 

Today and Tonight: Wednesday presents a difficult forecast with a variety of weather possible depending on your location. Drawing a line from Lafayette through Baton Rouge to McComb—north and west of that line should find a partly sunny day. Areas south and east of that line will maintain more cloud cover and even pick up a few spotty showers. That leaves Baton Rouge right in the middle with more clouds than sun and a stray shower not impossible. The “chill” will continue across the region, as highs struggle for the low 50s. Northerly winds will blow at 5-10mph. Overnight, skies will gradually clear with a low temperature in the low 30s—very near freezing.

 

Up Next: Thursday Afternoon will be sunny and cool with a high in the mid 50s. Into Friday Morning, temperatures will again by chilly, but likely in the upper 30s. More sunshine and warmer temperatures are on the board for Friday with a high temperature forecast of 65 degrees. Staying dry, both weekend afternoons will make a run at the low 70s.

 

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A positively tilted trough in the Western Gulf of Mexico will be traversing the region today. While precipitation has ended, some moisture in the mid-levels will allow positive vorticity advection east of this trough to maintain mostly cloudy skies for the area. Northerly surface winds behind the front will continue to bring cooler temperatures to the region. Alas, once the trough moves east tonight, building surface high pressure from the west will allow clearing to occur. As a result, Thursday lows will bottom out in the vicinity of freezing, but likely just above. The surface high will move overhead Thursday Afternoon into Friday keeping skies clear, setting up in Florida by the weekend. As winds become southwesterly on Friday Afternoon the area will warm above average—a trend that continues into the weekend. In fact, highs will have a shot at the 70s Saturday through Tuesday. The next deep trough will cut across the United States next Tuesday and Wednesday. The much warmer air ahead of this system clashing with a returning cold air mass will mean this event will at least be worth watching for strong storms. About a week out, much is left to be learned about how this one will unfold.

 

--Josh Stay connected with me… share your thoughts! 

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Rain and falling temperatures http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-and-falling-temperatures/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-and-falling-temperatures/ Weather Tue, 26 Jan 2016 6:00:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Rain and falling temperatures

The weather will be unsettled through midweek as temperatures begin to fall.

Today and Tonight: Periods of rain and even a few thunderstorms can be expected today. With a cold front settling into the region, overcast skies will make a warmup beyond the low 60s very difficult. In fact, winds shifting from south to north may instigate falling temperatures with many locations achieving the daily high during the morning hours. Showers will continue overnight as winds turn northwesterly. Thus, lows will fall into the low 40s.

Up Next: Some shower activity is pegged to hang on into Early Wednesday. Right now, some breaks in the clouds are anticipated, but with cooler air coming into place highs will stay in the low 50s. Expect continued clearing into Thursday with a chilly beginning near freezing. The afternoon hours will be sunny and cool with a high in the mid 50s. More sunshine and warmer temperatures are on the board for Friday.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A cold front is moving southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. Its southwest to northeast orientation parallels a positively tilted trough in the upper levels making forward progress rather sluggish. As a result, moisture advection due to the upper flow will interact with the uplift generated by the front to provide a stratiform rain situation through Tuesday. Forecast models are in agreement with the presence of elevated convection but the stable surface layer is deep enough that the area shouldn’t notice any more than a few rumbles of thunder. The trough will progress slowly eastward by midweek, dragging the cold front away with it. Forecast models are trending later with this progression however, warranting a mention of rain through at least Early Wednesday. Additionally, the lagging trough may keep some stubborn cloud cover in the region on Wednesday—especially closer to the coast where more moisture is available. Behind that front, a strong surface high pressure in the Mountain West will exert northerly wind flow over the region Wednesday Night through Friday Morning bringing back below average temperatures. With the high traversing a Denver to Miami line through Saturday though, ample sunshine is forecast Thursday and Friday with return flow in the offing by Saturday and well above normal temperatures for next weekend.

 

--Josh 

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Warmer to cooler with early week rain http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmer-to-cooler-with-early-week-rain/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmer-to-cooler-with-early-week-rain/ Weather Mon, 25 Jan 2016 6:16:10 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warmer to cooler with early week rain

Another cold front is settling into the region. Expect returning rain showers through Tuesday with gradually falling temperatures.

Today and Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies can be expected for the beginning to your new week. Thanks to southerly winds of 10mph, the high temperature will be much milder—in the middle 60s. A stray shower is possible after the lunch hour. Much more likely will be the chance of showers overnight. In fact, rain and thunder is expected after midnight in addition to some fog. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

Up Next: Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday—which is looking gloomy at this point. High temperatures will be in the low 60s, beginning a downward trend as a slow-moving cold front enters the region. The showers will continue on through Wednesday with morning lows in the 50s and highs barely back into the 50s. Clearing is on deck for the second half of the week.    

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A southerly flow is returning moisture and warmer temperatures to the region. A fairly weak trough pushing into the Southeastern United States will provide the forcing needed to tap into the moisture return and provide increasing clouds throughout Monday. By Tuesday, a weak front will settle into the area and stall with a parallel southwest to northeast flow in the upper levels helping to kick off a daylong stratiform rain event. Because of that flow being unfavorable for advancing a front farther south, clouds and showers will linger into Wednesday as cooler air is slowly working in along the back of the front. Alas, much cooler temperatures will be in place for the conclusion of the week—highs and lows will be about 10 degrees below average Wednesday through Friday Morning.

--Josh

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Louisiana students stuck in D.C. http://www.wbrz.com/news/louisiana-students-stuck-in-d-c-can-t-get-home/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/louisiana-students-stuck-in-d-c-can-t-get-home/ Weather Fri, 22 Jan 2016 9:53:24 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Louisiana students stuck in D.C.

With up to three feet of snow and tropical storm force wind, a historic nor’easter is raging up the East Coast, and it’s packing a little bit of a kick. A Cajun kick that is. That’s because in the middle of it all, there’s a group of South Louisianians. This is a first for these U.S. history students from E.C. White Catholic High School in Thibodaux, La. WBRZ talked to them by Skype this afternoon, because parents called us, somewhat concerned since their kids are snowed in.  

“Our original flight was Saturday, that got moved to Friday, then the Friday one's got cancelled, so we're kinda stuck here,” one of the students said.

There could be worse places to be stuck. These teenagers are used to preparing for rough weather in south Louisiana, but nothing like this.

“All of the stores were starting to close already. We'd go in, and they'd say ‘Oh we're closed, you'll have to leave’," they explained.

They’re experiencing the same system that brought us severe weather yesterday. As the storm moves up the East Coast, Atlantic moisture moving over very cold land has D.C. smack in the middle of a blizzard warning. That's bad news for transportation, but great news for this crew, even though their parents area bit worried.

“My entire family has called me separately, every day and they're all worried and I'm like ‘I’m fine’.”

They’ve stocked up thanks to local “blizzard sales.” They’re bundled and enjoying the snow, even though there’s one thing missing.

“Send gumbo!” they all exclaimed. They certainly miss their Louisiana food.


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WBRZ camera records potentially dangerous cloud formation http://www.wbrz.com/news/wbrz-camera-records-potentially-dangerous-cloud-formation/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/wbrz-camera-records-potentially-dangerous-cloud-formation/ Weather Thu, 21 Jan 2016 9:55:19 PM Trey Schmaltz WBRZ camera records potentially dangerous cloud formation

PORT ALLEN - A weather phenomenon was captured on video Thursday.

As a line of severe weather moved east across West Baton Rouge, WBRZ reporter Brett Buffington was recording video of the sky. At the WBRZ weather office, meteorologists were tracking the system with the National Weather Service when a tornado warning was issued. Upon further inspection a few hours later, it seemed Buffington had captured the reason why experts issued the alert.

"It's really hard to see, but there is just a little bit of circulation," WBRZ meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III explained. "It's not a tornado," Gauthreaux clarified. But, added, it was a significant enough development to warrant a weather alert.

"Doppler radar saw the rotation," he said.

Buffington reported vehicles were stopping on Highway 190 where the video was recorded. Motorists saw the formation and wanted to watch it in the distance.

Later and miles away, the storm system produced lightning that hit a house. The house had minor damage.

As the storm system moved across the Baton Rouge area Thursday afternoon and evening, temperatures dropped. Overnight, temperatures are forecast to drop ten degrees. Friday, Saturday and Sunday, though, are expected to be beautiful. Cloudy weather returns Monday.

Click HERE to read more from the WBRZ weather experts.

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Sharply colder across the Central Gulf Coast http://www.wbrz.com/news/sharply-colder-across-the-central-gulf-coast/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sharply-colder-across-the-central-gulf-coast/ Weather Fri, 22 Jan 2016 6:10:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sharply colder across the Central Gulf Coast

With a strong cold front east of the area, temperatures have plummeted and will not recover much through Saturday.

 

Today and Tonight: Friday will be wintry by local standards. Overcast skies may persist throughout the day as cold air continues to seep into the Gulf South. Temperatures will struggle to leave the low 40s. Winds will be stiff out of the north at 15-25mph. The cloud cover and wind combination will keep “feels-like” temperatures, or wind chills, in the 30s through the day. There may even be some lingering drizzle, with a flurry possible in Southern Mississippi. Overnight will feature clearing skies. It will be blustery and quite cold with lows a few degrees below freezing and wind chills in the low 20s.

 

Up Next: Much improved weather is anticipated for the weekend. Saturday Afternoon will bring ample sunshine and a high near 50 degrees. After another freeze Sunday Morning, the afternoon will remain clear with a high in the upper 50s.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: With a cold front through the region, a strengthening surface low to the northeast and strong surface high dropping south from the Midwest, the region has taken on a wintry feel. A tight pressure gradient has resulted in brisk northerly winds of 15-20mph. Cold air advection is well underway and expected to continue through Saturday Night. Meanwhile, in the upper levels, a lagging thermal trough will maintain a cloud deck through much of the day. A few sprinkles will be possible as well, with even some flakes mixing in as far south as Southern Mississippi. Due to the clouds and wind, temperatures will struggle to climb through the mid 40s and wind chills will likely be in the 30s and then into the 20s overnight as skies open up and thermometers dip below freezing. By Saturday Morning, surface high pressure moving into the Upper Mississippi River Valley will help to clear the region out, but maintain the chill. Freezes appear likely north of I-10 on Saturday and Sunday Morning. As the high shifts east, southerly flow will allow Sunday Afternoon temperatures to return to average. A weaker storm system will return clouds showers by Monday Evening.

 --Josh

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Tornado Watch remains in effect until 10 p.m. http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-remains-in-effect-until-10-p-m-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-remains-in-effect-until-10-p-m-/ Weather Thu, 21 Jan 2016 2:47:14 PM Brock Sues Tornado Watch remains in effect until 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE - The Capital Area experienced high winds, lightning strikes and bouts of rainfall as the area went under a Tornado Warning Thursday evening. A cold front is pushing through the region and bringing some wild weather with it, and a Tornado Watch will remain in effect until 10 p.m.

By 6 p.m., the National Weather Service was issuing Tornado Watches for counties in Mississippi as a main line of severe weather made its way eastward.

News 2's Pat Shingleton said possible tornado damage was spotted near Krotz Springs and Kenmore as the storm pushed toward New Orleans. Multiple viewers submitted images of quarter size hail near Clinton, and News 2's Brett Buffington captured video of wild cloud formations near Erwinville that the weather team said was notable because of the visible rotation captured.

A Tornado Watch went effect until 10 p.m. tonight earlier in the day for the following parishes: Ascension, Assumption, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberia, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lafourche, Livingston, Orleans, Plaquemines, Pointe Coupee, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Martin, St. Mary, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Tensas, Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.

Pat Shingleton says that while the Tornado Watch may be lifted for the Baton Rouge area, general instability with thunderstorms and wind can be expected as the cold front continues to take its place.


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S.E. Louisiana and S.W. Mississippi face enhanced severe weather threat Thursday http://www.wbrz.com/news/s-e-louisiana-and-s-w-mississippi-face-enhanced-severe-weather-threat-thursday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/s-e-louisiana-and-s-w-mississippi-face-enhanced-severe-weather-threat-thursday/ Weather Thu, 21 Jan 2016 6:40:08 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus S.E. Louisiana and S.W. Mississippi face enhanced severe weather threat Thursday

A large and vigorous storm system will bring rain and potentially severe thunderstorms to the Baton Rouge area on Thursday Afternoon and Evening before strengthening into a powerful Nor’Easter in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday.

 

Today and Tonight: Thursday will be mostly cloudy and mild with high temperature approaching 70 degrees. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the afternoon hours, with the possibility of a few storms becoming severe. All severe weather hazards are on the table with conditions favorable for gusty wind, large hail and isolated tornadoes. Storms will quickly taper beyond a squall line which will cross the area this evening. Have a way to access alerts through the day, should they be issued. Overnight, temperatures will turn sharply colder as winds turn northwesterly. Lows will end up in the mid 40s.

 

Up Next: Friday will be wintry by local standards. Overcast skies may persist throughout the day as cold air continues to seep into the Gulf South. Temperatures will struggle to leave the 40s. Winds will be stiff out of the north at 15-25mph. The cloud cover, wind combination will keep “feels-like” temperatures or wind chills in the 30s through the day. There may even be some lingering drizzle. By the weekend, skies will go all clear, with freezing morning thermometers returning to the 50s during the afternoon.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: An impressive upper wave and associated surface storm have organized over Texas. This energy will translate eastward through the sub-tropical jet stream today placing much of the Central Gulf Coast in the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread as the day progresses, with much of the action occurring in the afternoon and evening hours. A strong upper jet stream, a dry pocket in the mid-levels and high helicity values due to veering low level winds will be supportive of rotating thunderstorms and gusty wind mixing down to the surface. However, the same elephant remains in the room for our “wintertime” severe weather setup—instability. The northward extent of a moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico and any early day insolation will have a significant impact on the ability of storms to strengthen. A deep trough crossing the Southern U.S. will be pushing eastward, cooling temperatures aloft and steepening lapse rates. The sooner this occurs, the more readily storms will strengthen. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region under an “enhanced risk” for severe weather given that forecast models ARE projecting instability to increase this afternoon with CAPE values in the 1,000-1,500 j/kg range and helicity values around 350. The environment will be supportive of cellular and clustered thunderstorms, the former of which should have the ability to rotate. Alas, as the front nears, a squall line will push through during the evening. For this reason, all types of severe weather are possible including damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes. Conditions will become clearer as the day evolves, so have forecast information and alerts available should they become necessary. Rain will wrap up from west to east over night with cold air advection quickly underway. By Friday Morning, a deepening surface low to the east and strong surface high to the north will increase chilly north winds into the 20mph range. Daytime temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 40s with wind chills in the 30s. It would not be surprising if wind advisories are needed. Beneath overcast skies created by the lagging upper trough, a few sprinkles may fall as well. By Saturday Morning, surface high pressure moving into the Upper Mississippi River Valley will help to clear the region out, but maintain the chill. Freezes appear likely north of I-10 on Saturday and Sunday Morning. As the high shifts east, southerly flow will allow Sunday Afternoon temperatures to return to average. A weaker storm system will return showers on Monday Evening.


Meteorologist Josh Eachus provides an in-depth analysis of the severe weather threat along the Gulf Coast on Thursday, plus the signficant snow event pegged for the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, CLICK HERE or see below to watch.


 --Josh

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Showers return Wed., strong storms possible Thu. http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-return-wed-strong-storms-possible-thu-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-return-wed-strong-storms-possible-thu-/ Weather Wed, 20 Jan 2016 6:11:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Showers return Wed., strong storms possible Thu.

An unsettled pair of days will give way to another chill by the weekend.

Today and Tonight: Temperatures will continue on a moderating trend despite the return of clouds and rain. Look for thermometers to reach the upper 60s on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. We’ll call for spotty showers, but many locations will spend most of the day without rain falling. Overnight, clouds will stick though there may be a brief lull in shower activity. Lows will be in the mid 50s.

Up Next: On Thursday, a cold front moves into the region. By early afternoon, highs will reach the upper 60s. Rain and thunderstorms will increase in coverage—especially later in the day. Any thunderstorms ahead of the front could be strong and the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of gusty wind or a tornado. Cool air will quickly spill in behind the front. Lingering clouds with brisk northerly winds of about 20mph will make it difficult for Friday to leave the 40s. Don't be surprised by afternoon wind chills in the 30s!


Meteorologist Josh Eachus provides an in-depth analysis of the severe weather threat along the Gulf Coast on Thursday, plus the signficant snow event pegged for the Mid-Atlantic this weekend, CLICK HERE or see below to watch.


THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A disturbance in the sub-tropical jet stream will push a weakening cold front into the region on Wednesday. With this, clouds cover and scattered showers are anticipated through the day. A more impressive upper wave and associated surface storm will materialize for Thursday. With this, rain and thunderstorms are expected, especially ahead of the front. With a strong upper level jet stream and veering winds there will be some factors in place that suggest the possibility of severe weather. However, as is typically the case with cool season severe weather events, instability will be a question. Should some come into fruition, a few stronger storms could produce gusty wind or even a tornado ahead of the cold front. At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has the entire region under a slight risk for severe weather. With bust potential on the table, this case will be best evaluated as the atmosphere evolves on Thursday. Beyond rain on Thursday Evening, winds will turn northerly and accelerate. A deepening low pressure system moving towards the Mid-Atlantic (and set to bring big snow to that area) will interact with a high pressure system falling south through the Midwest. The tight pressure gradient will bring sustained winds of 15-25mph to the Gulf Coast with higher gusts. With the trough deepening across the Southeastern United States, the cloud deck will be very stubborn to erode and the overcast, wind combination could make for a very raw day across the Gulf Coast. It would not be surprising to see temperatures remain in the 40s with wind chills in the 30s! By the weekend, the surface high will move into the local area, providing a pair of clear days with moderating temperatures. A freeze will be possible Saturday Morning with highs back to average by Sunday Afternoon.  

--Josh

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