WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2014, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Sun, 23 Nov 2014 02:11:20 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Eyes to the weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/eyes-to-the-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/eyes-to-the-weekend/ Weather Fri, 21 Nov 2014 4:01:58 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Eyes to the weekend

While many prepare for an end to the work week, we must also keep a close watch on an elevated threat for severe weather this weekend.

THE FORECAST

Today and Tonight: Friday will end up very similar to Thursday. Partly sunny afternoon skies won't inhibit the ongoing warmup with temperatures making it into the lower 70s. We can thank southeasterly winds around 5mph for the milder air. Overnight, clouds may tend to increase a bit, and it will finally be a warmer than average wake up temperature-most in the middle 50s.

Looking ahead: Saturday may not actually begin looking all that bad. Any early sunshine and temperatures in the lower 70s however, will give way to clouds and developing storms in the afternoon. This will be the most active time period in the week ahead, so here is a breakdown:

  • As it stands, the setup is favorable for numerous thunderstorms, some severe, with damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Regardless of whether or not storms reach severe limits, all locations will gather rain Saturday Night.
  • Falling on a weekend, many are concerned with outdoor plans Saturday Evening. As far as a window of action goes-it would be a good idea to have indoor plans from sunset on Saturday to sunrise on Sunday, though some scattered action may develop as early as 2pm.
  • Also, be sure you have access to weather information such as watches and warnings. Follow @2StormView on Twitter for breaking updates right to your smart phone and download the WBRZ Weather App. for additional information.
  • As is the case with any hazardous weather event, this is a forecast period we will be watching closely and will update as newer information becomes available.

For a very detailed video breakdown of the severe weather potential, see the WBRZ Weather Vlog by clicking here.

By Sunday Afternoon, the storms will have exited but mild temperatures will persist with daytime highs in the 70s. A gradual cool down will occur behind a cold front Monday - Thanksgiving.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has no areas of interest over the next 48 hours to 5 days.

THE SCIENCE

Forecast Discussion: The top forecast concern this weekend is most definitely the possibility of a severe weather episode on Saturday Night. The most obvious indicator of active weather is the sharp trough that will cutting through the Southern States. This disturbance in the overall pattern will help to stir up the atmosphere with a southwest to northeast flow in the upper levels. A rapid flow in the upper levels will mean the atmosphere is well ventilated, making it easier for storms to develop and last. Further down, a strong southerly low-level wind flow out of the south will work with the upper flow to create shear-which can give storms the ability to rotate. Finally, southeasterly surface winds will transport an unseasonable amount of moisture into the region, further priming the atmosphere for potentially severe storms. All of the science aside, this setup is fairly classic as far as the textbooks go-in fact, much more impressive "looking" than was last weekend's setup. We will be watching this closely for you to see if all comes together and this event indeed produces nasty storms. Regardless of any severe storms, rain CAN BE EXPECTED area-wide Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. With cold air lagging well behind the storm complex, Sunday will in fact be a warmer afternoon with returning sunshine before a front arrives and begins to knock thermometers back into early next week.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Becoming seasonable http://www.wbrz.com/news/becoming-seasonable/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/becoming-seasonable/ Weather Thu, 20 Nov 2014 4:09:06 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Becoming seasonable

Dry and mild weather will prevail as forecast focus shifts to a weekend severe weather threat.

Forecast Discussion: Slight ridging in the upper -levels will work with a surface high pressure system to our northeast to promote a warming trend into the weekend. Southeasterly winds will return average to above average temperatures and some moisture to the lower levels through the weekend. The main area of concern for this forecast falls on the Saturday Evening time frame. American and European forecast models have been very consistent is setting up a severe weather scenario. First, the jet stream is expected to take a sharp dip and orient southwest to northeast in our region on Saturday Evening-a classic setup for storms in the south. Meanwhile lower-level winds will be strong and south to southeasterly, introducing directional wind shear into the mix-a component needed for severe storms cells and tornadoes. At the surface, the milder and moister air building through the week will prime the instability needed to fuel storms from the surface. At this time, all severe hazards appear to be on the table, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain being atop the list. By Sunday, this fairly progressive system will exit eastward. Unlike the previous two systems, the cold air will lag behind these storms leaving a cold front passage for Monday. With all of the instability sapped by the Saturday Evening event, expect this front to pass mainly dry with colder air returning by mid-week.

Today and Tonight: Thursday won't provide any weather surprises as mostly sunny skies allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s by afternoon. An isolated spot or two may snag 70°. The overnight hours setup another period of clear skies followed by light, patchy fog development late with lows hanging in the low 50s.

Looking ahead: Friday will be another dry, seasonable day before some tumultuous weather arrives for the weekend. On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the evening hours and last into Sunday Morning.

  • As it stands, the setup is favorable for some of these storms to be severe with damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. In addition, forecast models have been bullish in suggesting rainfall totals in excess of 1-2".
  • Falling on a weekend, many are concerned with outdoor plans on Saturday Night. As far as a window of action goes-it would be a good idea to have indoor plans from sunset on Saturday to sunrise on Sunday.
  • Also, be sure you have access to weather information such as watches and warnings. Follow @2StormView on Twitter for breaking updates right to your smart phone and download the WBRZ Weather App. for additional information.
  • As is the case with any hazardous weather event, this is a forecast period we will be watching closely and will update as newer information becomes available.

By Sunday Afternoon, the storms will have exited but mild temperatures will persist with daytime highs in the 70s.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has no areas of interest over the next 48 hours to 5 days.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Coming out of it http://www.wbrz.com/news/coming-out-of-it/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/coming-out-of-it/ Weather Wed, 19 Nov 2014 3:29:23 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Coming out of it

After a freezing start, Wednesday marks the beginning of a moderating trend in temperatures.

Forecast Discussion: A surface high pressure system is sliding eastward into Georgia while a deep upper-level trough of colder air and lower pressures retreats to the northeast. This combination will mean a general warming of the atmosphere with clockwise flowing winds around the surface high returning southeasterly winds to the local area. In addition, with no major features at play besides the high, quiet weather is anticipated through the week. By Saturday, an impressive looking 500mb vorticity maximum and shortwave trough will be swinging through the south. With moisture well established by this time, moderate low-level winds and some shear working through an unseasonably warm and progressive atmosphere-an ideal setup exists for severe weather. In fact, as far as the textbooks go, this setup is much more favorable than last weekend in which one tornado was confirmed. We will closely be watching the Saturday Evening time frame as it nears. Perhaps one missing ingredient would be additional uplift from a front as the next round of chillier temperatures lag behind until Tuesday.

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will begin on a cold note before sunshine enables a 30° improvement into the afternoon. The overnight hours will be far less chilly, returning to the lower 40s under clear skies. A bit of fog may develop in the pre-dawn hours.

Looking ahead: With quiet, mild weather anticipated through Friday, the focus shifts to Saturday Evening for another potential bout of severe weather. At this time, all of the ingredients seem to be in place for at least a few nasty storms. Current timing appears to be late Saturday Afternoon - early Sunday Morning with all threats on the table. We will provide much more information as details become clearer closer to the weekend.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center has no areas of interest over the next 48 hours to 5 days.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Keeping the freezing http://www.wbrz.com/news/keeping-the-freezing/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/keeping-the-freezing/ Weather Tue, 18 Nov 2014 3:47:08 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Keeping the freezing

Another below average temperature day and subsequent below freezing night is forthcoming.

Forecast Discussion: Some upper-level energy managed to stir up a few high clouds overnight, which held temperatures slightly up from the forecast and out of the middle 20s. Deep 500mb trough (deeper than last week) is trenching in the eastern half of the United States. This is again resulting in milestone cold for the present fall season. Surface high pressure passing directly over the Gulf South will maintain a northerly component to the winds and clear skies through Tuesday with another freeze expected on Wednesday Morning. Some change will begin to occur mid-week as the trough lifts and atmospheric heights rise, allowing our air to expand and warm. Meanwhile, the surface high will move to the Atlantic Coast. This positioning will enable the clockwise surface wind flow around the system to open up a return flow from the Gulf, warming the local temperatures. Sunshine prevails through Thursday before the next wave of energy in the upper levels stirs up another storm system Friday into the weekend. Early indications are that the setup will again be favorable for some strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

Today and Tonight: While the sun will be up, the temperatures will be down (again) for your Tuesday. Afternoon highs will make a push for the upper 40s but no more. The same clouds that kept thermometers from a hard freeze this morning will also make it difficult for a return to the 50s this afternoon. Then, another mostly clear, calm night is ahead with most locations registering the fourth freeze of the fall season.

Looking ahead: By Wednesday Afternoon a little moderation in temperatures can be expected. In fact, highs will jump be about 10° two days in a row with Wednesday topping out in the upper 50s and Thursday in the upper 60s. By Friday, some 70s (average highs this time of year) will be back in the picture but so too will be some clouds cover and perhaps a shower. The next storm system taking shape on the forecast models will arrive this weekend and this one could be another trouble-maker. Stay tuned.

The Tropics: Two weeks until we officially put hurricane season 2014 to bed, but by and large, activity has come to an end

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Wardrobe 180 http://www.wbrz.com/news/wardrobe-180/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/wardrobe-180/ Weather Mon, 17 Nov 2014 4:07:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Wardrobe 180

Hopefully you didn't stash the jacket too far away after a milder Sunday-the chill returns through mid-week.

Forecast Discussion: A cold front that brought severe weather to the region on Sunday is pushing away to the east. A strong surface high pressure system has sunk deep into Texas and is aiding another push of cold, Canadian air. Temperatures have dropped 30° since Sunday Afternoon and not much warming is expected over the next few days. Cloud cover will break from Northwest to Southeast by the lunch hour of Monday. Until then, thermometers will struggle to hang on to the lower 40s. With a little afternoon sun, they may briefly nudge into the upper 40s, but no better and a stiff northerly wind of 15mph continues to transport cold air into the area. Freeze bulletins are back up for Monday Night with even a HARD FREEZE expected along and north of I-12.The surface high will move over the region Tuesday Night-clear skies and light winds will prompt yet another freeze. By Wednesday Afternoon the chill will be in decline with above average temperatures and showers returning by week's end.

Today and Tonight: Get your jacket, hat and gloves back on... thermometers have slipped 30° since Sunday Afternoon. A lingering cloud deck behind Sunday's storms will clear from northwest to southeast through mid-morning. Despite returning sunshine, thermometers likely won't overcome the strong northerly breezes which are pulling cold air southward and temps will keep to the 40s for the rest of the day. Tonight, with clear skies and light north winds, another freeze is expected. A HARD FREEZE WARNING is in effect from 9pm - 6am for the northern half of the WBRZ viewing area and a FREEZE WARNING is in place from 11pm - 6am for the southern half of the area. There is subtle difference between the two, simply denoted by colder temperatures in the hard freeze. Either way, be sure people and pets have access to warmth and sensitive plants are covered or brought inside.

Looking ahead: Though skies remain clear, temperatures will again remain in the 40s on Tuesday with another freeze into Wednesday Morning. Milder air pushes in mid-week into the weekend with rain showers back in the picture by Friday.

The Tropics: Two weeks and a day until we officially put hurricane season 2014 to bed, but by and large, activity has come to a stop.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Tornado watch in effect for viewing area until 10 p.m. http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-in-effect-for-viewing-area-until-10-p-m--66808/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tornado-watch-in-effect-for-viewing-area-until-10-p-m--66808/ Weather Sun, 16 Nov 2014 2:10:21 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Tornado watch in effect for viewing area until 10 p.m.

A **TORNADO WATCH** is in effect until 10 p.m. tonight.

This includes the entire viewing area minus our counties in southwest Mississippi.

A tornado watch means that weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms that are capable of producing tornadoes.

Please stay tuned to WBRZ News 2 and our 24-hour digital weather channel 2.2 or Cox cable channel 18 for the latest updates.

Also, you can follow the meteorologist on duty, Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III on Twitter, as well as @2stormview for the latest updates. We recommend Twitter for the fastest updates.


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Pat Shingleton: Early Winter Tips http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-early-winter-tips/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-early-winter-tips/ Weather Sat, 15 Nov 2014 2:41:21 PM Pat Shingleton Pat Shingleton: Early Winter Tips

Two consecutive days of frigid weather, including a record low, found the weather team extending preparation suggestions. Ours include protecting plants, warming up the pets and visiting the elderly. Pipe protection can be initiated for future cold snaps. The Weather Channel provided suggestions on 20 mistakes you should avoid during winter. Some include pouring hot water on a cold windshield for deicing. This could crack your windshield. Braking and overcorrecting when you hit a patch of ice will send your car into an out-of-control spin. Rapidly increasing your thermostat temperature will not rapidly heat your home, it only controls the final temperature. Opening your south-facing curtains will increase sunlight and increase heat.


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Weekend: begins freezing, ends soaking http://www.wbrz.com/news/weekend-begins-freezing-ends-soaking/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/weekend-begins-freezing-ends-soaking/ Weather Fri, 14 Nov 2014 6:23:42 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Weekend: begins freezing, ends soaking

After slipping below the freezing mark for several hours on Friday Morning, the Baton Rouge area can expect a similar start to the weekend.

For the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport, low temperatures bottomed out at 29° around 6am Friday Morning. That was a record low for the date since record keeping began at that particular location in 1930. However, the all-time mark for the area remains at 26° from 1907.

After a sunny but cool Friday, dusk will begin a rapid drop in temperatures for the overnight period. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and re-issued a FREEZE WARNING for 10pm - 9am Saturday Morning. Due to the clear skies and light winds, a longer duration of below freezing temperatures will be possible. Once again, a freeze warning means that sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely and sensitive plants may be damaged or killed. Therefore, you should cover or bring indoors vegetation you care to save. Also be sure people and pets without access to heat have a warm place to stay. Lastly, if you have any exposed outdoor piping, you could cover it as a precaution.

If you have flexible outdoor plans this weekend, Saturday is the much better option. Mostly sunny skies will remove the freezing tag and allow some to snare 60° by afternoon. Overnight, cloud cover will increase as a storm system takes shape to the southwest. Expect this storm to overspread rain across the region by Sunday Afternoon and persist through the night, falling steadily at times. Healthy looking-this storm is capable of leaving behind 1-2" of rain area wide before exiting Monday Afternoon.

Another cold front will boot this system eastward as the new week begins, replacing it with perhaps even colder air than what was felt in the latest chill. At least two more freezes appear likely for Tuesday and Wednesday Morning with afternoons struggling to leave the 40s.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Potentially record setting freeze http://www.wbrz.com/news/potentially-record-setting-freeze/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/potentially-record-setting-freeze/ Weather Thu, 13 Nov 2014 5:36:34 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Potentially record setting freeze

Cold air has found its way well into the United States and is taking down records around the nation.

In Memphis, the earliest measurable snowfall on record was recorded on Wednesday Night as 0.1'' fell. For Little Rock, it was the first time flakes flew this early since 1993. As far as temperatures go, as of Wednesday Night, 75% of the continental United States had below normal temperatures, an incidence occurring prior to November 12 only four times since 1979.

The Baton Rouge area may not be spared from setting some chilly records. The two records most likely to be threatened are Thursday's high temperature and the Friday Morning low.

As it stands, for November 13, 48° was the coldest high temperature ever recorded and the current forecast calls for 46°. On Thursday, early rain showers, persistent cloud cover and a cold north wind around 10mph will make it very difficult for morning temperatures in the 30s to warm far past the mid-40s.

Then, with a long duration freeze expected overnight, the Baton Rouge area will flirt with the previous record low of 26° thanks to clearing skies on ongoing northerly winds.

Both of those markers were formerly set in 1907.

Due to the extended cold overnight Thursday, the National Weather Service has issued a FREEZE WARNING for the entire WBRZ viewing area in Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi from 11pm - 9am. A freeze warning means that sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely and that sensitive plants may be damaged or killed. Therefore, you should cover or bring indoors vegetation you care to save. Also be sure people and pets without access to heat have a warm place to stay. Lastly, if you have any exposed outdoor piping, try to cover it.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Veterans Day Forecast http://www.wbrz.com/news/veterans-day-forecast/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/veterans-day-forecast/ Weather Tue, 11 Nov 2014 6:54:57 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Veterans Day Forecast

Veterans Day will end up as another mild one-likely the last for at least a week. A general west to east increase in cloud cover is expected through the afternoon hours with highs climbing into the upper 70s. Some locations may squeak into the lower 80s. A spotty shower isn't impossible, especially late, but most showers will likely hold off until the overnight hours and Wednesday as temperatures begin falling back through the 60s and into the 50s.


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No quick snap http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-quick-snap/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-quick-snap/ Weather Mon, 10 Nov 2014 1:23:16 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus No quick snap

The well-advertised batch of cold air plunging into the Deep South on Wednesday will not mimic its Fall-2014 predecessors. Long term forecast models show a stubborn period of below average temperatures extending over the next two weeks.

The Setup: A highly amplified jet stream is ridged in the west and digging a trough into the east. The jet stream typically serves as a barrier between cold air to the north and warm air to the south. As that jet stream makes the big southern dip, or trough, the colder air is able to sink southward into regions not typically affected by chilly Canadian or even Arctic air. In addition to the trough, a strong surface high pressure system will move south out of Canada into the Upper Midwest. Clockwise surface wind flow around this high will mean a northerly push of chilly air through the remainder of the week for most of the Eastern United States. On Sunday, forecast models are displaying a shortwave trough cutting across the south with an appreciable batch of rain from Texas to Louisiana to Mississippi. A shortwave is a much smaller scale dip in the jet steam than a trough. Simply put, it is a mini-trough traveling through the jet stream equally capable of creating disturbed weather. Cause aside, the storm system will be trailed by a cold front expected to maintain northerly winds and cooler than average temperatures.

Contrary to what you may have heard or seen on national news reports, the forthcoming cold air IS NOT the polar vortex. The polar vortex is a semi-permanent upper-level air circulation around the poles. Sometimes, dips in the jet stream will allow this cold pool of air aloft to influence surface temperatures much farther to the south.

WATCH: Meteorologists Josh Eachus and Robert Gauthreaux break down the upcoming cold snap.

The Forecast: While the cold front may be accompanied by a shower or two on Wednesday, any shower activity will be minor and taking a backseat to the chill. Beginning Wednesday Afternoon, thermometers will tumble and struggle to recover. Lower 40s on Thursday Morning and mid-50s in the afternoon is all that is expected. Many locations will flirt with freezing temperatures on Friday Morning followed by another day in the 50s. The 60s will return on Saturday followed by potentially modest rainfall on Sunday prior to another batch of colder air.

Long-term: Just as temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend, another storm system will swing through the south bringing cloud cover, periods of rain, potentially thunder and a reinforcement of cold air. As of Tuesday Afternoon, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 1-2" of rain for the region through early next week. Even with some moisture return from the Gulf and a southerly flow ahead of the next front, cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures below average on Sunday. The trailing cooler air mass will lead to below average temperatures through the middle of next week and this is highlighted by a 60% chance of below average temperatures in the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Mild Monday http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-monday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-monday/ Weather Mon, 10 Nov 2014 6:53:29 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Mild Monday

Your Monday will feature abundant sunshine and mild temperatures with highs in the middle 70s.

As southerly winds continue, a quick cool down is NOT expected to occur tonight as was the case Sunday into Monday. Lows won't fall too far out of the 60s and into the upper 50s. Skies will be clear but some patches of fog may develop at the surface by Tuesday Morning.


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Pat Shingleton: Acreage and Weather http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-acreage-and-weather/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-acreage-and-weather/ Weather Sun, 9 Nov 2014 2:24:34 PM Pat Shingleton Pat Shingleton: Acreage and Weather

For cattle and sheep ranchers a "stocking rate" reflects how many animals a designated area of acreage will support. The USDA/Agricultural Research Center noted the unpredictability of precipitation causes difficulty for ranchers in the Great Plains to estimate this rate. Scientists use a computer model to assist. By extrapolating seasonal weather predictions, models test scenarios for forage yields and weight gains of livestock under weather conditions. Ranchers are able to better estimate if precipitation will be above or below normal for a given season. This model also determines the effects of increased carbon dioxide and higher temperatures on pasture forage. Testing on the model will continue through the Central Plains.


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Chilly and more to come http://www.wbrz.com/news/chilly-and-more-to-come/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/chilly-and-more-to-come/ Weather Fri, 7 Nov 2014 4:07:44 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Chilly and more to come

Brrr...we started off almost 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and we will warm up only to about 65 degrees today. You can expect lots of sunshine though! You can expect even a cooler start in the morning tomorrow with Baton Rouge reaching 41 and maybe even a few 30s in some areas further north.

Not only will we be sunny and cool today, but we'll go ahead and carry this throughout the weekend. No rain expected, and in fact, the only form of precipitation will be another year of crimson tears.

As we head into next week, we could be seeing another fall blast with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. I won't say 20s, but....well I said it, but we will see.

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

 

~RG3

 


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Bored gauges http://www.wbrz.com/news/bored-gauges/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/bored-gauges/ Weather Thu, 6 Nov 2014 6:50:05 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Bored gauges

Streak Over:

A notable 22-day stretch of empty rain gauges in Baton Rouge ended on Wednesday as a trace of rain fell prior to midnight.

While a few light showers fell October 29-30, amounts were very insignificant. Plus, where official records for the local area are kept at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport, NO precipitation was measured.

With so little activity in the rain gauges for so long, has the Baton Rouge area chalked up any dry records?

This is indeed the longest dry stretch since 2009, but beyond that, records show much more impressive streaks through history. Since precipitation records began in 1930, there have been 43 stretches of three weeks or longer without rain. The longest dry spell on record occurred over 38 days from September 29 - November 5, 1979-leaving the entire month of October dry! In fact, October has been a part of 18 of the longest dry spells on record, not surprising as September, October and November are all considered three of the top 5 driest months in the region on average.

For the year, Baton Rouge gas registered 51.37" of rain which is a surplus of just over 1". However, since September 1, there has been more than a 4" deficit for the 66 day period with only 5.41" of rain down.

As far as the gauges go, the Wednesday/Thursday showers were not of any help to the recent lack of rain with only 0.1-0.2'' falling.

*Thanks to the Southern Regional Climate Center for assisting with some of this data.

What could have been?

On Tuesday, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) from National Weather Service hydrologists were indicating a healthy amount of rainfall for Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi with 0.5-1.5" displayed through Friday Morning. The expectation was that a west - east oriented cold front moving slowly through the area would tap into moisture from the Tropical Pacific, enhancing rainfall. By Wednesday Morning, this moisture stream quickly dried out over Central Mexico starving our cold front for moisture and QPF forecasts were updated accordingly. By Thursday Morning, what had occurred was much more like the 0.01-0.1" rainfall forecast issued 24 hours in advance of the showers. The small rain amounts that actually fell leave Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi in a two-month rain funk.

For a complete forecast, visit wbrz.com/weather and the WBRZ Weather Blog.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Spotty Showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/spotty-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/spotty-showers/ Weather Wed, 5 Nov 2014 6:12:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Spotty Showers

Wednesday will continue a recent trend of increasing cloud cover but also bulk the long-term trend of no rain. As a cold front approaches, a batch of showers will approach the region through the day, becoming scattered by the overnight hours. Highs will top out in the mid-upper 70s.

Overnight, showers are anticipated with thermometers cooling to dew point temperatures in the low 60s.

Any lingering rain will wrap up from northwest to southeast into Thursday Afternoon.

For a more detailed forecast, visit our weather blog: http://www.wbrz.com/blog-entries/what-liquid-/

 


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Election Day Forecast http://www.wbrz.com/news/election-day-forecast/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/election-day-forecast/ Weather Tue, 4 Nov 2014 5:20:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Election Day Forecast

Election Day will have quite a bit more cloudiness than Monday. Overall, expect a trend of increasing cloud cover from high to low in the skies and west to east across the region. High temperatures will chug towards 80° but likely fall just short in many spots. A stray shower is not impossible, especially in western locations, but the majority of the region will remain dry.

Tonight, temperatures shouldn't fall out of the 60s with a low cloud deck persisting into Wednesday.

A cold front will provide scattered rain showers Wednesday into Early Thursday. Generally, around an inch of precipitation should occur region-wide.

 


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Getting warmer http://www.wbrz.com/news/getting-warmer/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/getting-warmer/ Weather Mon, 3 Nov 2014 4:52:35 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Getting warmer

Expect mostly sunny skies for the beginning of your week with thermometers climbing back towards an average high this afternoon-near 74°.

The overnight hours will not end up as chilly as the last several mornings. There may be a few passing clouds and also some patchy fog into the pre-dawn hours.

After a mainly dry and warm election day, alas some rain chances arrive on Wednesday.

For much more detailed information, visit our weather blog at http://www.wbrz.com/blog-entries/less-chilling/

 


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Freeze warning in effect overnight http://www.wbrz.com/news/freeze-warning-in-effect-overnight/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/freeze-warning-in-effect-overnight/ Weather Sat, 1 Nov 2014 8:39:49 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Freeze warning in effect overnight

A **FREEZE WARNING*** has been issued for Sunday 12 a.m.-8 a.m.

A Freeze Warning means that significant widespread freezing temperatures are expected. It currently includes the parishes of Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena, East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Tangipahoa, and Livingston. It also includes the counties of Amite, Pike, and Wilkinson. It has even spread into Central Louisiana and East Texas.

Areas further north may experience several hours of temperatures below freezing.

Remember to bring animals and plants inside, or at least protect them, as well as pipes.

 


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Part 3: A communication nightmare http://www.wbrz.com/news/part-3-a-communication-nightmare/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/part-3-a-communication-nightmare/ Weather Fri, 31 Oct 2014 10:14:52 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Part 3: A communication nightmare

On October 23, 2012, the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) computerized weather forecast model was suggesting the metamorphosis of a Hurricane by the name of Sandy into a monstrous extra-tropical cyclone. This is not uncommon for late season tropical cyclones racing into the North Atlantic.

What was disturbing-the ECMWF also indicated an unprecedented northwestward curve by the storm into the Northeastern United States-an area often spared from tropical trouble. Yet, even as late as October 25, the American Global Forecast System (GFS), was still struggling to display the northwestern curve inland being shown by ECMWF solutions.

Regardless of the serious forecast challenges, experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) interpreted the available data well. Storm track, wind and surge forecasts all exceeded the average skill of typical tropical cyclone forecasts.

So if the forecast was good, how then has the communication of this event information become infamously poor?

Meteorologically speaking, Hurricane Sandy presented unprecedented challenges to the weather enterprise. First, the storm was massive and pegged to affect a large number of states with a variety of hazards that are not typical of a tropical system. Second, there were a number of factors made this storm an ambiguous one to categorize. This dissention between forecasters and weather textbooks contributed to serious troubles in communicating potential impacts.

The National Weather Service (NWS) and Emergency Managers began discussing options for communicating the potential hazards more than five days in advance of the storm coming ashore. The consensus decision three days before landfall was to have NHC bulletins in the landfall areas in addition to local National Weather Service office bulletins highlighting specific threats. High wind watches were issued more than 60 hours prior to landfall.
This was done due to Emergency Managers having an adamant preference that warning type NOT be changed once issued. Doing so would cause an added level of confusion, compromising preparation and evacuation efforts.

It was during that time frame when hurricane watches WOULD have been issued, yet Sandy's offshore transition to a post-tropical cyclone was still uncertain.
At this time, the prototypical government red tape caused chaos.

Based on NWS policy, had hurricane bulletins been issued and Sandy had become post-tropical while offshore, there would have been three options.

1.Following existing protocol, NHC would cancel tropical bulletins and transfer forecast responsibility to local offices. This was exactly what emergency managers requested not to happen.
2.Despite a post-tropical transition, continue to call Sandy a hurricane in order to maintain NHC advisories. The NHC and NWS viewed an intentional misrepresentation of the storm as a potentially critical blow to the organizations' credibility.
3.Properly call Sandy post-tropical but continue to issue NHC advisories. The NWS had not developed a procedure for releasing post-tropical forecasts with tropical bulletins and did not want to risk implementing untested procedures at a critical moment.

Thus, with seemingly no guaranteed option, the NWS proceeded with the issuance of ‘high wind' and ‘flood' watches, communicating this warning strategy with emergency and media partners.

Public interpretation of the warnings issued and other recent events led to the perception that Sandy was under-warned.

First, for most, a hurricane warning simply conveys more seriousness than a ‘high wind' and/or ‘flood' warning. Second, the region had been under a hurricane warning just one year earlier for Irene. The area spent the duration of Irene on its weaker western side with the height of the storm occurring during low tide. Sandy on the other hand was much bigger, hooked inland bringing the strongest conditions ashore during a high tide.

A full assessment of the risk perceptions and preparedness actions of Mid-Atlantic residents for Hurricane Sandy can be found in the Wharton Report.

While this dilemma served as a reminder to the public to take all watches and warnings seriously, the National Weather Service was able to reach some goals and find solutions to prevent similar confusion in the future. The NWS has now adopted a policy that allows the National Hurricane Center to continue advising on systems of tropical origin as long as they do pose a significant threat to life and property-meaning tropical or hurricane warnings may be maintained if such conditions are expected. In addition, Sandy further emphasized the need for the storm surge specific forecast products which were accelerated and just rolled out for the beginning of the 2014 hurricane season.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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