WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2016, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Sun, 24 Jul 2016 03:07:50 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Louisiana summers: records fall as averages rise http://www.wbrz.com/news/louisiana-summers-records-fall-as-averages-rise/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/louisiana-summers-records-fall-as-averages-rise/ Weather Fri, 22 Jul 2016 10:55:46 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Louisiana summers: records fall as averages rise

Only halfway into meteorological summer, a discomforting warm temperature record has already fallen at New Orleans International Airport. 2016 has already brought 13 days where the daily minimum temperature has failed to drop below 80 degrees.   

 


The previous records, which date back to May 1946, came in 2010 and 2011—both had 12 days that remained above 80 degrees. In addition to meteorological summer, the 13 days in 2016 also ties the calendar year record, also previously set in 2010.

By extending records back to January 1893 via the station at Audubon Park, more lamenting lows can be found. So far in 2016, Audubon Park has registered 8 days with a low temperature above 80 degrees. There, the previous record is an astonishing 45 days with a low above 80 degrees—that came in 1980.  

In Baton Rouge, only one morning has failed to leave the 80s. That occurred on July 5 and kicked off a stretch of four straight mornings with record high minimum temperatures.

Forty year averages show nighttime temperatures are warming in Louisiana and across the United States. Temperature records at Metro Airport in Baton Rouge date back to 1930. From 1930 to 1969 the average summer low temperature was 71.73 degrees. Then from 1970 to 2015 that number climbed a bit to 72.44 degrees. The statewide plot is a little higher.

When nighttime temperatures stay warm, they can cause health problems by not allowing bodies to cool down after hot days. This can be particularly dangerous for vulnerable populations like the elderly and those without air conditioning. In addition, the 2014 National Climate Assessment said that rising nighttime lows can also strain power grids, as air conditioning demand stays high, and can even negatively impact crops and farm animals.

One meteorological factor that contributes to warming nights is increasing humidity, better measured by dew points. The dew point not only marks the temperature at which air becomes saturated but can also set the basement for low temperatures because air temperatures cannot drop below the dew point. Summed up, humid air just doesn’t cool as efficiently as dry air and thus more nights are staying sultry.  

   

Dew points also have an effect (in some cases opposite) on high temperatures. Just as humid air cools less efficiently at night, it also warms more slowly during the day. That would then suggest that as dew points rise, the average high temperature should come down. However, that is not the case. The same forty year dataset used to identify upward low temperature trends also indicates an upward climb in average high temperatures. For Baton Rouge, the average summer high from 1930 to 1969 was 91.08 degrees and from 1970 to 2015 it was 91.20 degrees—not as remarkable.   

The impact of rising humidity may be somewhat offset by more extremes. In Baton Rouge, very hot days are on the increase, with more and more days reaching maximum temperatures above 95 degrees between 1970 and 2015. Extreme heat is the most common trend found by scientists performing attribution studies on the evolving global climate.  

As both temperatures and dew points rise, the number of days in which they combine to raise the risk for heat-related illness may also climb. The number of danger days — days when the heat index (the combination of heat and humidity) is at least 105°F — will likely increase substantially across much of the country. During hot summer days, additional moisture in the air stresses the body by making it harder to cool itself through perspiration. This effect is not just irritating and uncomfortable, but it can also raise the risk of heatstroke and heat exhaustion and in some cases, death.  According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than 7,800 people died from heat-related illnesses from 1999-2009. Heat illnesses become even greater concerns in larger cities.

New Orleans, Baton Rouge and the state of Louisiana as a whole are no exception to a rule, and recent overnight warmth is just a small sample of these multi-decadal trends. Cities are further made hotter by the urban heat island effect. Concrete, bricks, and pavement absorb heat during the day and release it at night, which is why cities are warmer than rural locations. However, both rural and urban areas have shown warming in past decades, so urban heat islands are not solely responsible for the observed rise in temperatures.

 

Via warmer temperatures, feedbacks then begin which creates more evaporation at the surface which injects more moisture into the atmosphere and thus continues to bolster temperatures. The ongoing loop has become evident over the past few years.

 

In July, NASA and NOAA released their global temperature analyses for June. Though there are some minor differences in how each calculates average monthly temperatures for earth, both conclude that January to June 2016 was hottest first half of a calendar year on record globally. NOAA added that June 2016 was the 14th consecutive month of record heat for the globe. The year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.89°F above the 20th century average of 56.3°F. This was the highest for January-June in the 1880–2016 record.

Contrary to common belief, heat is actually the leading weather related killer. Thus, scientists are continuing to research the cause of increasing temperatures around the globe. In the latest studies climate experts said that higher temperatures can be attributed to increasing greenhouse gas emissions trapping more and more heat in earth’s atmosphere.

 


Links to additional data and information:

 

UNITED STATES OFFICIAL CLIMATE INFORMATION WEBSITE

 

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY INFORMATION STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

 


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Better shot at boomers http://www.wbrz.com/news/better-shot-at-boomers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/better-shot-at-boomers/ Weather Fri, 22 Jul 2016 6:17:36 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Better shot at boomers

Indications are that Friday will bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms. For this reason, high temperature forecasts have been pulled down by a degree or two into the low 90s.

Today and Tonight: It will be partly sunny, hot and humid with a high temperature of 94 degrees achieved by early afternoon. As for the showers and thunderstorms, expect about 60 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area to receive rain. Action will trigger as early as late morning and move from east to west, producing downpours and frequent lightning. It is possible that showers and storms linger late enough into the afternoon to impact the Baton Rouge area commute, so don't be surprised by some additional drive time delays this evening. Overnight will be mostly clear and muggy with a low in the mid 70s.   

Up Next: Into the weekend, typical July weather will persist. Both Saturday and Sunday will be partly sunny and hot with highs in the low to mid 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain in the mention but will not washout any plans. Any activity will be brief, possibly bringing downpours and frequent lighting before moving along. Of course, keep in mind, if you hear thunder lightning can strike. The safe option is to take a break inside of a study shelter with four walls and roof. Covered patios and carports are not safe. More of the same is expected to begin next week.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The broad upper level ridge responsible for continued heat, humidity and fairly low end rain coverage will begin to back off into the upcoming weekend. A couple of disturbances pinwheeling around the ridge will work through the area on Friday and then again early next week to provide enhanced shower and thunderstorm development. On these days, the area can expect 40-50 percent coverage in showers and thunderstorms, any of which would be capable of producing brief microbursts and frequent lightning. Generally, the next seven days will remain hot, at or a degree or two above average, with partly sunny skies.     

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Three Hs in play, looking for a cooling shower http://www.wbrz.com/news/three-hs-in-play-looking-for-a-cooling-shower/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/three-hs-in-play-looking-for-a-cooling-shower/ Weather Thu, 21 Jul 2016 5:40:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Three Hs in play, looking for a cooling shower

The forecast will hold steady into Saturday. By Sunday, the local area may notice a slight drop off in high temperatures.

Today and Tonight: Your Thursday will be hazy, hot and humid with a high of 95 degrees. Heat indices will top out near 105 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny with a hit-or-miss shower. Overnight will be mostly clear and stuffy with lows in the upper 70s. 

Up Next:  A stubborn ridge of high pressure is holding a very warm bubble of air across the central plains, and to a lesser extent, Louisiana. Regardless, expect it to be fairly hot tomorrow as well. Shower chances are in the forecast, but only a few "bubblers" are expected. Most of us will stay dry. Not much changes over the next seven days, but a marginally better chance of a shower will be noted on Sunday and Monday which could bring temperatures back to normal, but overall don't expect anything too different--not a surprise in July.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  We continue watch an upper level ridge which has been the culprit for persistent heat and slightly less storm action in the local area. This ridge is centered near the Texas/Oklahoma border and will remain expanded across the entire southern half of the country into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly low due to the "lid" this feature places on the atmosphere. Rain coverage will remain in the 20 percent range. Most convection will continue to occur in the late morning to early afternoon. It is worth pointing out that dew points starting the day in the mid 70s will fall into the lower 70s on account of daytime mixing. The timing of rising temps and falling dewpoints will likely keep heat indices just below the 108 heat advisory criteria on Thursday and Friday. The ridge will begin to weaken by Sunday and become more of a zonal flow as a northern stream trough races along the US/Canada border. As a result, the pattern will go back to normal with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low 70s and more isolated to scattered daily convection.

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Watching out for high afternoon heat indices http://www.wbrz.com/news/watching-out-for-high-afternoon-heat-indices/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/watching-out-for-high-afternoon-heat-indices/ Weather Wed, 20 Jul 2016 7:00:28 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Watching out for high afternoon heat indices

No major surprise and no major changes to the forecast, slim rain chances and high heat continue to sum up the local weather.

Today and Tonight: For Wednesday, we continue on a stretch of high temperatures in the mid 90s. Partly sunny skies will be noted with only an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Chances will be highest in coastal areas where there is inherently a bit more moisture available to fuel convection. Overnight, look for lows in the upper 70s under mostly clear skies.    

Up Next:  Thursday and Friday will likely be the hottest two days this week. Very few pop-up showers and storms are anticipated and as a result, the area will gather more sunshine and high temperatures will make it a degree or two warmer than average. The heat and humidity combo will bring afternoon “feels-like” temperatures into the low 100s. The National Weather Service may have to issue heat advisories later this week.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A well-established ridge over the Central United States will dominate the country into the weekend. This “heat ridge” will be responsible for much compressional warming and capping of the atmosphere meaning lesser shower and thunderstorm action and thus higher temperatures. With unchanging humidity and more persistent sun, the local area may expect heat indices in the low hundreds for a longer duration during the afternoon hours. Borderline advisory criteria will be met but the heat won’t be anything we haven’t already dealt with this season. As for showers and thunderstorms, any action should be fairly low topped beneath the broad ridge and likely limited to coastal areas where two processes will be underway. First these locations will be more on the periphery of the ridge, open to a few waves of energy spinning through the mean flow. Secondly, added moisture and marine breezes could help to initiate convection. The same marine breezes will attempt to blow storms inland but daily action will tend to stay south of the interstates. By the end of the weekend, models are squeezing the ridge northward  somewhat which would return the area to a more normal isolated shower and thunderstorm regime.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Summer heat in full swing http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-heat-in-full-swing/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-heat-in-full-swing/ Weather Tue, 19 Jul 2016 5:35:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Summer heat in full swing

You may have noticed that showers and thunderstorms were more “isolated” on radar Monday. That trend will continue this week. Certainly there aren’t big changes to the pattern in July and August, rather some very subtle shifts that we’re able to point out, perhaps more easily than we can actually notice outside!

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will be partly sunny, hot and humid. High temperatures will make it into the mid 90s with very little wind. Isolated showers and storms aren’t out of the questions but should be fairly limited—to coastal locations. At night, skies will clear with lows in the mid 70s.   

Up Next:  Wednesday through Friday will offer a similar forecast. For this week, the slight difference is that while pop-up showers and storms remain possible, they won’t affect many locations on a given day. As a result, the area will gather more sunshine and high temperatures will make it a degree or two warmer than average. With higher temperatures and fewer cooling showers, afternoon “feels-like” temperatures will be back in the low 100s. The National Weather Service may have to issue heat advisories later this week.   

The Tropics: The tropics remain inactive after an above average June. No development is expected into the next several days in the Gulf, Atlantic, or Caribbean.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A well-established ridge over the Central United States will dominate the country through the week. This “heat ridge” will be responsible for much compressional warming and capping of the atmosphere meaning lesser shower and thunderstorm action and thus higher temperatures. With unchanging humidity and more persistent sun, the local area may expect heat indices in the low hundreds for a longer duration during the afternoon hours. Borderline heat advisory criteria will be met but may not be issued as such heat has already been dealt with this season. As for showers and thunderstorms, any action should be fairly low topped beneath the broad ridge and likely limited to coastal areas where two processes will be underway. First these locations will be more on the periphery of the ridge, open to a few waves of energy spinning through the mean flow. Secondly, added moisture and marine breezes could help to initiate convection. The same marine breezes will attempt to blow storms inland but daily action will tend to stay south of the interstates.  

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Fewer storms, more heat this week http://www.wbrz.com/news/fewer-storms-more-heat-this-week/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/fewer-storms-more-heat-this-week/ Weather Mon, 18 Jul 2016 5:40:35 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Fewer storms, more heat this week

A heat ridge is taking over the Central United States and will have an impact on Baton Rouge area weather this week.

Today and Tonight: Look for Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, however with not as much areal coverage as over the weekend. Highs will be in the mid 90s. Lows will be in the mid 70s overnight with mostly clear skies. 

Up Next:  Rain chances slowly taper into the start of the week, but not completely. Every day can expect at least a pop up shower or thunderstorm somewhere, but most locations will not receive rain each day. As the rain chances taper, temperatures respond a bit by climbing into the upper 90s in many spots. While a heat advisory may not be needed, some afternoons of at least 96 degrees are expected. A few places could reach higher. Feels like temperatures will no doubt be at least 100 degrees. 

The Tropics: The tropics remain inactive after an above average June. No development is expected into the next several days in the Gulf, Atlantic, or Caribbean.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  As a weak trough loses influence, marine convection that develops early will blow inland and form new storms near outflow on Monday. This will likely be the final day of scattered coverage though because a broad ridge is building over the Central United States. This ridge will cap the atmosphere in the mid levels and make it a little more difficult for daily convection. Daily coverage Tuesday to Friday is likely to be in the 20 percent range with a focus closer to the cost and the sea breeze.

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
4 out of 12 is bad http://www.wbrz.com/news/4-out-of-12-is-bad/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/4-out-of-12-is-bad/ Weather Fri, 15 Jul 2016 10:22:22 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III 4 out of 12 is bad

Yesterday’s lightning fatality is Baton Rouge was only one of many across the country this year. The first US lightning fatality of 2016 occurred in Larose, La. on March 13th at the T-Bois Blues outdoor music festival. Since then, 11 others have unfortunately died as a result of lightning. Three of those deaths have been in our state, one of which happened this past Sunday. Two local lightning fatalities in one week supports the fact that June, July, and August have the greatest amount of lightning activity each year. Only Florida matches our tally of four deaths this year.

The complete tally includes Louisiana and Florida with four fatalities each, two in Mississippi, and one each in Missouri and Tennessee.

Four out of 12 is bad. With 813,234 strikes annually, Louisiana is one of the lightning capitals of the country and is only bested slightly by Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, with Florida being the clear winner. While potentially a convenient excuse, it’s almost self-destructive argument because one would think that Louisiana residents would be aware of the daily lightning threat.

Four deaths have been attributed to those who were conscious enough to at least seek shelter from the storm, but were unaware of what constitutes a “safe” shelter. Three of these examples include trees, and the other, a tent.

Looking at the others, one could assume that heedless naiveté is what came into play. Other fatalities occurred in open fields, parking lots, and construction sites.

Perhaps the problem lies in communicating this risk to those not native to the Bayou State. The first death of year was unfortunately a transplant to our beautiful state from New England. Others at risk are those from Central America who can’t speak English and are unaware of the dangers of lightning.

“While we often hear thunder in the summer, we rarely seek shelter unless it’s raining badly,” stated a local painter in Spanish, who asked to remain anonymous.

The WBRZ Weather Team constantly adjusts its message in an effort to deliver the clearest message possible to the most people across the Baton Rouge area. This includes closing the gap in language, but we need your help too. Sharing this story on social media would be a great start (shameless plug).

Other items to note are that 75% if this year’s fatalities were male, 66% did not attempt to seek shelter, and 58% occurred in June and July.

Roughly 90% actually survive lightning strikes. The man who died Thursday for example was accompanied by a coworker as they took shelter under a tree. He was severely injured however.

When it comes to summer plans, we are used to seeing afternoon thunderstorms bubble up and move through rather quickly. With that in mind, when your hear thunder during an outdoor activity, just head inside for a bit, enjoy a cool one, and let it pass. The storm doesn’t have to be directly over you. It can be several miles away. Occasionally even up to 10 miles away.

For more information on lightning safety when working outdoors, check out this publication from the National Weather Service.

If watching YouTube is more your thing, here is a lightning safety video from the National Weather Service.

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

-RGIII


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Weekend plans? Check the radar http://www.wbrz.com/news/weekend-plans-check-the-radar/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/weekend-plans-check-the-radar/ Weather Fri, 15 Jul 2016 5:35:46 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Weekend plans? Check the radar

The week will end in the same weather pattern that has persisted since Monday.

Today and Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday. Of course in between any action, it will be partly sunny, hot and humid with highs in the low 90s. The showers and storms will move erratically through the day. Any storms may bring downpours and frequent lightning. Overnight will be partly cloudy and sticky with lows in the mid 70s.  

Up Next:  The repeat pattern continues on Saturday with partial sunshine, highs in the low 90s and pop-up storms. Weekend plans will certainly have to consider a contingency for lightning—especially through the first half. Remember, an enclosed building with 4 walls and a roof are needed to be safe in a storm. If you can hear thunder or see lightning, you are close enough to be struck. By Sunday, it appears as though showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated in nature, and primarily in coastal areas. Thus highs will run for the mid 90s. Another hot stretch is in the cards for next week with drier weather and top-out readings in the mid to upper 90s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The big weather player over the next several days will be an upper level ridge that will bulge across the nation’s mid-section. This ridge has been partitioned east and west of the local area of late and the weakness has led to daily showers and thunderstorms. This pattern will continue through Saturday. By Sunday, forecast models show a 597dm ridge building over the Midwest with a broad influence from the Rockies to the Appalachians. The Gulf Coast will have some peripheral effects with slightly lower rain coverage in Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. Peripheral is the key word though because the ridge should not fully envelop the forecast area. This means that the so-called “ring of fire” pattern may setup  which could lead to some waves of energy circling the ridge interacting with marine breezes to still provide the occasional shower or thunderstorm during afternoons. Either way, hotter highs are in store with at least mid, if not, upper 90s expected.

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
More afternoon storm clouds http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-afternoon-storm-clouds/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-afternoon-storm-clouds/ Weather Thu, 14 Jul 2016 5:37:22 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More afternoon storm clouds

The forecast will go unchanged until late weekend or early next week.

Today and Tonight: Nothing to see here. It’s the same old same old. Highs in the lower 90s, lows in the mid 70s. At least the weather pattern is behaving normally. Lately, the temperatures have been right around average for July. Convection will be bubbling up again during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Showers and storms will start along the coast, and then move inland by the afternoon. Coverage will be in the 40 percent range around the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area with the best chances south of the interstates. Overnight will be quieter but muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  Rain tapers a bit toward the weekend. It remains in the forecast every day, but becomes more isolated rather than scattered. Slightly less rain coverage will be accompanied by slightly warmer temperatures. Our forecast calls for partly sunny and humid afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Even with an area of high pressure sitting across Dixie, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Showers and cloud cover will help keep temperatures low, but the steam won’t be affected. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. July is expected to be warmer than average, even though the past week has been right around average. We really haven’ seen any below average days. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather. 

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Nothing to see here http://www.wbrz.com/news/nothing-to-see-here/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/nothing-to-see-here/ Weather Wed, 13 Jul 2016 8:08:03 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Nothing to see here

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday’s weather? You guessed it, more steam allowing another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s with convection bubbling up during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Coverage will be in the 40 percent range around the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area with the best chances south of the interstates. Overnight will be quieter but muggy with lows in the mid 70s. 

Up Next:  Thursday will bring one more afternoon of scattered action before the pattern allows a transition to more isolated activity. As you might expect, fewer showers and storms will lead to slightly warmer high temperatures, but only by a degree or two. By the weekend, standard summer weather will be in place. Our forecast calls for partly sunny and humid afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and thunderstorms.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The pattern will not change much this week. There are persistent upper level ridges in the Southwestern United States and off of the East Coast. In between these two features, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Of course, the more numerous showers and thunderstorms will help to limit temperatures somewhat, but a pretty steamy feel will continue as we expect this time of year. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather.   

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

-RGIII


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Heat before bubblers http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-before-bubblers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-before-bubblers/ Weather Tue, 12 Jul 2016 5:35:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Heat before bubblers

Showers and thunderstorms performed as expected on Monday with 50 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecasting area collecting rain from late morning to late afternoon. Most of that action occurred south of I-12 and that should again be the case today.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday brings more early steam followed by more afternoon shower and storm activity. Highs will make it into the low 90s before any of the bubblers start producing rain and cooling temperatures. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  Expect late morning to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Daily rain coverage will be in the 40 percent range. Aside from any pop-up activity, skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures getting into the low 90s. Nights will be quieter with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 70s. There are signs that another stretch of high heat is in store for next week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The pattern will not change much this week. There are persistent upper level ridges in the Southwestern United States and off of the East Coast. In between these two features, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Of course, the more numerous showers and thunderstorms will help to limit temperatures somewhat, but a pretty steamy feel will continue as we expect this time of year. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather.   

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Oh, hey July, there you are http://www.wbrz.com/news/oh-hey-july-there-you-are/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/oh-hey-july-there-you-are/ Weather Mon, 11 Jul 2016 5:37:03 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Oh, hey July, there you are

A little extra moisture gave us slightly better thunderstorm coverage yesterday and that will continue today. On any given day, not everyone will see rain, but about 40% of the forecast area will—which in turn brings temperatures down a touch. It won’t be a huge change, it will still be hot and sticky, but every little bit helps.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight:  Look that mix of sun then scattered showers again today and thus, a degree or two cooler. Highs will be near 92 degrees—close to average for the time of year. Overnight, lows in the mid 70s under mostly clear skies. Humidity is down a notch, but it remains quite sticky out there.

Up Next:  Temperatures don't fluctuate much this week, but rain chances taper slightly toward Friday, with partly sunny skies ruling all through the week otherwise. Again, after an above-average June with regard to the tropics, things have been fairly quiet the last few weeks and we aren't expecting any development over the next few days. June seemed intense, but that doesn't mean that was the precedent for the whole summer.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A slight weakness between two upper ridges, in the Southeast and Southwest, will be just enough to maintain status quo pop-up thunderstorms through the beginning of the week. Areal coverage will be in the 30-50% through the period with action trailing off somewhat through time. Most of the development will be driven by daytime heating so the daily window will be from 11am - 5pm. By the week end, there are signs of a returning ridge overhead, capping off convection and sending temperatures back above average-- possibly for some of the hottest readings so far this season. 

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Showers to fight off some heat this weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-to-fight-off-some-heat-this-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-to-fight-off-some-heat-this-weekend/ Weather Fri, 8 Jul 2016 5:57:39 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Showers to fight off some heat this weekend

Thursday brought the third straight record maximum low temperature. As of Friday Morning, the temperature had not dipped below 79 degrees likely marking a fourth consecutive record—unless an afternoon shower can send thermometers below 79 degrees.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Friday will be partly sunny and steamy with high temperatures in the mid 90s and dew points in the mid 70s. These conditions will make the body sense temperatures in the low 100s—especially in areas that do not receive any cooling showers. To that point, only 20 to 30 percent of the 13 Parish and 3 County forecast area will pick up a quick shower or storm this afternoon. Drink more water than you usually would and try to minimize time in direct sun. Check the backseat of your car for kiddos and keep an eye on the elderly—especially those without access to air conditioning. If work requires you to be outside, take frequent breaks. The overnight stickiness will continue as well with lows struggling to leave the 80s.   

Up Next: Some changes are in store for this weekend. Saturday will be hot and humid with a high temperature in the mid 90s. A few more locations are likely to receive afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Into Sunday, temperatures will remain muggy with lows in the upper 70s. Earlier development and more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on Sunday meaning that highs will stop in the low 90s and afternoon feels-like temperatures will be a bit more limited. Similar weather is anticipated into early next week.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A nearby upper ridge and surface high pressure in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to keep fairly low rain coverage (20-30%) and resulting high heat. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid 90s and very high dew points will keep lows around 80 degrees. The oppressive humidity will also mean high heat indices—especially through Saturday as rain coverage stays in the isolated category. By Sunday, a little troughiness in between two 594dm ridges may provide the additional instability needed for increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast models agree on this feature persisting into early next week. For that reason, the area can expect rain coverage on the order of 30-40 percent and likely lower high temperatures as well, closer to normal, in the low 90s. Because dew points will stay in the mid to upper 70s, overnight lows will not stray far from the upper 70s though and heat indices will exceed 100 degrees in locations that don’t receive rain.       

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Third straight Heat Advisory, slimmer shower chances http://www.wbrz.com/news/third-straight-heat-advisory-slimmer-shower-chances/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/third-straight-heat-advisory-slimmer-shower-chances/ Weather Thu, 7 Jul 2016 5:51:53 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Third straight Heat Advisory, slimmer shower chances

Despite a shower dropping the afternoon temperature to 79 degrees, Wednesday marked the second straight day with a record maximum low temperature. As of Thursday Morning, the temperature had not dipped below 79 degrees likely marking a third consecutive record—unless an afternoon shower can send thermometers below 77 degrees.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another steamy afternoon is ahead, with high humidity creating “feels-like” temperatures over 105 degrees. A HEAT ADVISORY is once again in effect. Drink more water than you usually would and try to minimize time in direct sun. Check the backseat of your car for kiddos and keep an eye on the elderly—especially those without access to air conditioning. If work requires you to be outside, take frequent breaks. Skies will be mostly sunny and the lowest rain coverage of the week is expected—only 10-20 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area will get a cooling afternoon shower. The overnight stickiness will continue as well with lows struggling to leave the 80s.   

Up Next: Similar weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with the only forecast tweak coming to expected rain coverage—bumped slightly into the 20-30 percent range. By Sunday and Monday, it appears as though the pattern will allow a bit more widespread and shower and thunderstorm coverage with earlier development as well. This should stop high temperatures a little closer to average in the low 90s. Unfortunately, the very warm nights will persist.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The axis of a broad southern tier ridge is stretching overhead today bringing the bleakest outlook for cooling showers this week. High heat will continue to grab weather headlines into the weekend with highs peaking in the mid 90s and very high dew points keeping lows around 80 degrees. The oppressive humidity will also produce high heat indices and for that reason, heat advisories may be re-upped each day. By Sunday, a little troughiness in between two 594dm ridges may provide the additional instability needed for increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast models agree on this feature persisting into early next week. For that reason, the area can expect rain coverage on the order of 30-40 percent and likely lower high temperatures as well, closer to normal, in the low 90s. Because dew points will stay in the mid to upper 70s, overnight lows will not stray far from the upper 70s though and heat indices will exceed 100 degrees in locations that don’t receive rain.       

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Record warm mornings, high afternoon heat continue http://www.wbrz.com/news/record-warm-mornings-high-afternoon-heat-continue/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/record-warm-mornings-high-afternoon-heat-continue/ Weather Wed, 6 Jul 2016 5:47:04 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Record warm mornings, high afternoon heat continue

For the second straight morning, temperatures did not dip below 82 degrees. That makes two straight days with a record maximum low temperature, each of which have tied the warmest low temperature, for any date, in Baton Rouge history. The only way that could change today is if an afternoon shower at Metro Airport drops thermometers below 78 degrees.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A *HEAT ADVISORY* is in place once again. Another steamy afternoon with feels-like temperatures over 105 degrees is ahead. Heat will be in full effect with only a few neighborhoods experiencing a cooling shower. Rain coverage will be on the order of 20-30 percent across the forecast area. Skies will be partly sunny otherwise. At night, relief hasn’t been coming and won’t this go around either. Lows will hover around 80 degrees, perhaps a third straight morning with a record maximum low.  

Up Next: Thursday and Friday bring the lowest rain chances of the week. As a result, many areas will keep sun through the day making air temperatures peak just a touch higher. Some upper 90s aren’t out of the question. And because humidity won’t break, it wouldn’t be surprising if the National Weather Service continues with heat advisories for “feels-like” temperatures spending several hours in the low 100s. Drink more water than you usually would and try to minimize time in direct sun. Check the backseat of your car for kiddos and keep an eye on the elderly—especially those without access to air conditioning. If work requires you to be outside, take frequent breaks. Little change is foreseen this coming weekend, though slightly better afternoon shower chances may return.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While the jet stream remains north of the local area, only a few weak impulses will be available to enhance the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Forecast models hint at some positive vorticity this afternoon, but it is faint and thus lower rain coverage is expected. This weekend, a little weakness between ridges and perhaps a slight upper trough will settle just north of the region. With ample surface energy, this should be enough to trigger additional shower and thunderstorm activity. Though surface forcing will still be lacking, a subtle marine breeze or outflow boundary will be all that is necessary to enhance development during peak heating hours. Either way, measurable rain shouldn’t exceed 30-40% of the 13 Parish 3 County forecast area on any given day. With very high heat and humidity, even by July standards, heat indices will be the main concern through the forecast period. Even the long term trends suggest above average heat will continue next week.    

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Heat Advisory posted, hydration and shade suggested http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-posted-hydration-and-shade-suggested/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-posted-hydration-and-shade-suggested/ Weather Tue, 5 Jul 2016 5:45:41 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Heat Advisory posted, hydration and shade suggested

Highs will stay way up as rain chances stay low through the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Heat will continue to be the lead story with high temperatures surging back into the mid 90s. Dew points will be in the mid 70s, producing resulting in high humidity. For that reason, the National Weather Service has issued a *HEAT ADVISORY* until 7pm. This means that highs will exceed 95 degrees and “feels-like” temperatures will be over 108 degrees for more than two hours. Like Independence Day, skies will be partly sunny with only isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. At night, not much relief is expected as lows stay in the upper 70s.

Up Next: Heat and humidity will remain elevated this week—even above the typically high levels of each expected in July. Highs will run 2-3 degrees above the normal high of 93 degrees with lows 3-5 degrees above the normal low of 74 degrees. Wednesday through Friday should bring mostly sunny afternoons with very low, but not impossible, rain chances. If you don’t enjoy this pattern, unfortunately, little change is foreseen this coming weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While the jet stream remains north of the local area, only a few weak impulses will be available to enhance the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Forecast models hint at some positive vorticity advection Tuesday, Wednesday and then again this weekend. While during the summer season this may be enough to kick out a bit of convection, a limiting factor may be moisture. Certainly plentiful at the surface, relative humidity charts show dry air in the mid and upper levels meaning that development won’t come easily. All in all, there will likely be just enough low level moisture, with the aid of some forcing at those specified times that a subtle marine breeze or outflow boundary could generate some spotty activity during peak heating hours. Either way, measurable rain shouldn’t exceed 20-30% of the 13 Parish 3 County forecast area on any given day. With very high heat and humidity, even by July standards, heat indices will be the main concern through the forecast period.   

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Red, white and blue with a stray shower http://www.wbrz.com/news/red-white-and-blue-with-a-stray-shower/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/red-white-and-blue-with-a-stray-shower/ Weather Mon, 4 Jul 2016 5:58:24 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Red, white and blue with a stray shower

The week will begin partly sunny and hot with a chance of patriotism—and a stray shower or thunderstorm. Heat will be the big story through the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Like Sunday, a stray shower or perhaps even a thunderstorm is possible. On the off chance one does pass by, consider it a welcome cool down from the continued heat. No holiday activities will be washed out. Skies will be mostly sunny with a high in the mid 90s. As you have likely noticed, humidity has continued increasing over the weekend. The evening call for WBRZs Fireworks on the Mississippi is mostly clear and muggy with temperatures in the upper 80s around 9pm. The overnight low will be in the mid 70s.

Up Next: Through the remainder of the week rinse (the sweat off) and repeat. Tuesday to Friday look for mostly sunny afternoons, with high temperatures in the mid 90s and elevated humidity creating peak heat feels like temperatures between 105 – 110 degrees. A stray shower or storm can't be ruled out, but is unlikely. Don't look for relief overnight, we'll run lows in the upper 70s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The pattern is being dictated by an upper level ridge parked over the Southeastern United States. Subsidence from the ridge is leaving little room for convection and this heat is the story. Extra sunshine and climbing dew points will bring highs in the mid 90s and lows in the upper 70s through the week. Any kind of lake or sea breeze may be able to spark a brief shower due to the conditionally unstable air at the surface-- but birthing widespread is expected through the week. 

 --Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Firecracker hot with fewer sparks from the sky http://www.wbrz.com/news/firecracker-hot-with-fewer-sparks-from-the-sky/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/firecracker-hot-with-fewer-sparks-from-the-sky/ Weather Fri, 1 Jul 2016 5:33:03 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Firecracker hot with fewer sparks from the sky

Rain chances will move in and out of the isolated category through Independence Day. A gradual warmup is forecast from now to the end of next week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Alas, Friday brings an afternoon where rain chances are too low to mention. A mostly sunny sky will allow high temperatures into the mid 90s. Humidity may be just a notch lower than earlier this week. Nighttime lows will be in the mid 70s underneath a mainly clear sky.

Up Next: You can expect similar weather for Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, there are enough hints that it would be wise to put a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the forecast. However, if anything can develop, it will be isolated and brief, meaning Independence Day Weekend activities should go on as planned. Both days, high temperatures will be in the mid 90s with partly sunny skies. Higher heat is in store for the middle and end of next week—perhaps tagged by uncomfortably warm mornings with lows barely slipping out of the 80s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A weak front has all but dissipated and drifted north of the local area, causing surface forcing to weaken. Additionally, another upper level ridge is pushing across the Gulf Coast. The result of these factors will be low-end to zero rain chances through Saturday. The relatively drier air mass will mean warmer high temperatures—back into the mid 90s—and if you are sensitive to subtle changes, slightly lower humidity. Forecast models continue to indicate a slight weakness in between upper ridges for Sunday and Monday and thus are squeezing out a bit of precipitation on Sunday and Monday Afternoons. Translating this to an actual forecast, it appears that in aligning with a trough axis to the north, the area may have a slightly increased chance of a pop-up afternoon shower or thunderstorm those two days, but the 13 Parish and 3 County forecast area likely won’t see greater than 20% rain coverage either day and the isolated and brief nature of any activity should not cause concern for any outdoor Independence Day plans. Beyond July 4th, a slightly larger ridge will move overhead and heat will again become the story for the middle and end of next week. High temperatures will move into the mid and upper 90s with little relief at night, lows will remain in the upper 70s.   

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Lower coverage in afternoon showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/lower-coverage-in-afternoon-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/lower-coverage-in-afternoon-showers/ Weather Thu, 30 Jun 2016 6:03:50 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Lower coverage in afternoon showers

As the diurnal shower machine starts to fizzle, hotter and drier weather will be returning this weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Partly sunny skies and isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday, although forecast area rain coverage will be lower. Highs will squeak into the low 90s with humidity still present, albeit a touch lower. Your overnight hours will be quiet with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Up Next: Some relatively drier air will make its way across our area this weekend, bringing area rain coverage down to a minimum. This will also allow high temperatures to climb back into the mid 90s. Overall, the extended Independence Day Weekend will be warm and a bit humid, though not quite as oppressive as the previous weekend. Expect mostly sunny skies while afternoon highs will head for the mid 90s. An isolated, afternoon shower isn’t impossible, but a low probability.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper trough and weak cold front have been focal points for shower and thunderstorm develop over the last three days. The front has more or less become only a trough with no distinct difference in temperature or humidity on either side. This is expected to fade along with development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, although some isolated action may bubble when daytime highs are reached. A weak ridge moving over the region should halt action Friday and Saturday. While afternoon feels-like temperatures have been comparatively lower, they will approach 100 today and through the weekend. Highs will generally be around 90 the lower 90s. In between ridges on Sunday and Monday, that little “weakness” in the atmosphere, may be enough to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Then again, as that weak upper level trough and surface front lose their influence on the region, a larger ridge of high pressure will build back overhead for the middle of next week leading to some very hot conditions. Highs will be in the mid 90s with low sin the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

--JoshFor updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Mediocre repeat and a foggy start http://www.wbrz.com/news/mediocre-repeat-and-a-foggy-start/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/mediocre-repeat-and-a-foggy-start/ Weather Wed, 29 Jun 2016 6:11:10 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Mediocre repeat and a foggy start

Rain coverage to back off after today

Another afternoon of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected before drier, hotter weather returns. Don't expect as much coverage as what we saw yesterday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: More scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Wednesday, although forecast area coverage may be a tick lower with more action found along and south of the interstates. Highs will still make it into the low 90s but humidity will begin to scale back a bit. Overnight will be quieter with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next: If drier air will indeed be noticed, heighten your senses on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will still be warm though—making it into the low 90s. No more than a stray shower will be found on the slightly less humid northern side of a weak front. The extended Independence Day Weekend will be warm and a bit humid, though not quite as oppressive as the previous weekend. Under mostly sunny skies, afternoon highs will head for the mid 90s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper trough and weak cold front have been focal points for shower and thunderstorm develop over the last two days, and that will continue through Wednesday. Development has been, and will continue to be, maximized when daytime highs are reached around midday. But due to the added action, afternoon feels-like temperatures will be fairly limited compared to where they had been. Highs will generally be around 90 degrees on account of earlier clouds and showers. By Thursday, the weak upper level trough and surface front will lose their influence on the region as the ridge builds back overhead. Fortunately, the front will leave behind a brief time of northerly surface winds which will keep dew points, or humidity down compared to the last several days. Therefore, even though the ridge will “cap” the atmosphere, leading to mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures, the comparatively lower humidity will lead to feels-like temperatures no worse than the last few days. Expect those conditions to persist through Fourth of July.  

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

~RGIII


Permalink| Comments


]]>