WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2014, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Wed, 23 Apr 2014 09:04:27 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Repeating pleasant Easter weather http://www.wbrz.com/news/repeating-pleasant-easter-weather/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/repeating-pleasant-easter-weather/ Weather Mon, 21 Apr 2014 3:27:55 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Repeating pleasant Easter weather

Winds will be south to southwesterly today promoting rising temperatures and dew points-translating into the day becoming warm and humid. After morning fog and low clouds, skies will become mostly to partly sunny. Tonight, added low level moisture may allow for some fog development if mid-level clouds do not develop first. It will be a bit muggy and mild with lows in the low 60s.


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STUDY: Shifting landscapes trigger tornado touchdowns http://www.wbrz.com/news/study-shifting-landscapes-trigger-tornado-touchdowns/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/study-shifting-landscapes-trigger-tornado-touchdowns/ Weather Thu, 17 Apr 2014 7:54:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus STUDY: Shifting landscapes trigger tornado touchdowns

Researchers from Purdue University say it is time to examine land areas that transition from rough to smooth, wet to dry and sloped to flat. They believe regions of changing landscape could be the focal point for tornado touchdowns.

After examining National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center tornado data from around the state of Indiana, researchers discovered that the majority of tornadoes touched down near areas where dramatically different landscapes meet. For example, where a city meets a suburb or where forest meets open land.

Doctoral students working on the project believe forecasters should pay close attention to these "landscape transitions zones" to key in on a relationship between tornado touchdowns and the earth's surface.

More than 60 years of data showed that over 60% of tornado touchdowns occurred within one mile of urban areas while over 40% happened within one mile of forest.

Overall, tornado reports have escalated through the years, as the population has grown. More observers simply increase the likelihood of a tornado being seen and tallied. Researchers from this project do not believe that fact is impacting their reports from urban locations because a significant chunk of reports also exists in low population areas with major changes in surface features.

One researcher noted that an abrupt shift in land surface can squash or stretch a column of air increasing its ability to rotate.

According to an article published on joplinstockyards.com, Indiana's state climatologist and co-author of the study, Dev Niyogi, believes that how land effects tornado development is an area deserving of further research. Niyogi added that better understanding these land-atmosphere interactions could lead to city designs that reduce the risk for hazards such as tornadoes.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Caught between two systems http://www.wbrz.com/news/caught-between-two-systems/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/caught-between-two-systems/ Weather Thu, 17 Apr 2014 4:04:50 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Caught between two systems

A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday Afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and associated shortwave trough will kick up a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Winds have become southeasterly at about 5-10mph. As a result, local temperatures will have an opportunity to climb back to near 70° today. There may be some sun available, though less than the last few days as increasing atmospheric moisture and surface warming will allow some clouds to bubble up. Forecast models are bringing isolated showers into the area as early as this afternoon. There appears to be a very tight gradient between areas that will find quite a bit of rain and those that will find only spotty showers. There is a greater chance for steadier rain for locations south and east of Baton Rouge. New Orleans should see much more rain than the Capital City.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy and mild with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows will bottom out near 60°.

 


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Lake ice may trump record temps http://www.wbrz.com/news/lake-ice-may-trump-record-temps/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/lake-ice-may-trump-record-temps/ Weather Wed, 16 Apr 2014 6:27:13 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Lake ice may trump record temps

We look at thermometers and can instantly qualify the feeling of cold, warm or temperate. Wednesday Morning, a quick check of the numbers revealed record setting cold on the heels of a memorable winter in the Deep South. Baton Rouge bottomed out at 37° making it the coldest morning for the date in history. Had thermometers lost 1 more degree, it would have been the latest into the spring it had ever gotten that cold since records began in 1892!

Statistics aside, a shot from space may be more telling to put the staggering reach of this winter's cold into perspective.

Mark Johnson of ABC5 in Cleveland shared a satellite photo (drawn on by Trent Magill) from April 9 displaying 40% of Lake Erie STILL covered in ice! Johnson says there has never been this much ice coverage on Lake Erie, this late into the spring since the satellite era which allowed scientists to monitor such data (1972).

Earlier this year, ice coverage was as extensive as 96%. Normally by Mid-April, ice coverage on Lake Erie is less than 5%.

A weekend thaw should melt quite a bit of it, but ice will likely remain into the final full week of April!

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Warmer but still cool http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmer-but-still-cool/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmer-but-still-cool/ Weather Wed, 16 Apr 2014 3:34:45 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warmer but still cool

A light, easterly wind will take over today allowing thermometers to quickly climb away from the 30s and into the middle 60s by afternoon. Though warmer than Tuesday, highs will still be about 10° below average. Sunshine and blue sky will be plentiful. A few clouds may start to mix in tonight as an onshore flow returns from the Gulf. For the same reason, lows should stay in the upper 40s, 15° from Wednesday Morning's very cold readings.


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A night for the books http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-night-for-the-books/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-night-for-the-books/ Weather Tue, 15 Apr 2014 7:19:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus A night for the books

It only makes sense for this winter that Wednesday Morning may accomplish a wintry feat unmatched in Baton Rouge history. Enough that a record low will likely fall, one more big-chill could etch the 2013-2014 winter in history.

On April 15, 2008 the morning low temperature in Baton Rouge dipped down to 36°. Since temperature records began for the Baton Rouge area in 1892 that marked the latest date into the spring season that temperatures had gotten that cold. Previously, April 14, 1909 had been the record holder, bottoming out at 36°. Of course, Wednesday Morning's date is April 16, and the forecast low is, you guessed it, 36°. Should thermometers hit that mark or colder, it will be the latest into the spring season we've EVER seen a temperature that cold! It seems befitting that the 2013-2014 winter season will create such a benchmark.

Looking back at other April cold weather statistics, we find the latest freeze our area has ever seen. On April 13, 1940 the mercury dropped to 31°.

Given the all-time late cold, obviously a daily record is positioned to fall as well. In fact, this one likely won't even be close. On April 16, 1983 the basement number for thermometers was 39°. That means tonight's forecast of 36° has 3° of wiggle room to tie and 2° to break the record.

Numbers aside, the cold isn't just a statistic this late in the season. Farmers, gardeners, and even seasonal allergy sufferers know that Southern Louisiana is well into the growing season. With middle 30s in the forecast for Baton Rouge, that means Parishes to the north and Counties in Southern Mississippi that are typical cold pockets may well flirt with some patchy frost or even a light freeze tonight. Thus, those with potentially afflicted interests should prepare accordingly.

Here is a statement from the National Weather Service regarding the chiller ahead overnight:

"The cold front that moved through the area overnight is bringing much colder and drier air to Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana today and Wednesday. The combination of clear skies, dry air and light winds will allow temperatures to dive into the middle and upper 30s for a few hours early Wednesday Morning across much of the area. The exceptions would be areas on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain and the lower portions of the Coastal Louisiana Parishes. These temperatures will challenge record lows for Wednesday in many locations. Much of the area is already past the date of their latest freezing temperatures on record. Some protected locations could see some light frost Wednesday Morning. Very tender vegetation may need some protection from the cold temperatures. Temperatures will warm well into the 40s by mid-morning on Wednesday with a moderating trend in temperatures to continue through the end of the week."

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Just cold http://www.wbrz.com/news/just-cold/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/just-cold/ Weather Tue, 15 Apr 2014 6:53:13 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Just cold

Cool northerly breezes of about 15mph will result in a high temperature no better than the lower 60s this afternoon. Many locations will likely hold in the 50s. Sunshine will be plentiful however, making it a nice outdoor day when compared with Monday. Tonight, with clear skies and light northerly winds, thermometers will run for the coldest low since March, and a record for the date. The standing record low for April 16 is 39°. With a forecast low of 36°, the benchmark will likely fall. Some freeze/frost advisories aren't out of the question for Southern Mississippi.


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Where do I go to avoid a tornado http://www.wbrz.com/news/where-do-i-go-to-avoid-a-tornado/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/where-do-i-go-to-avoid-a-tornado/ Weather Mon, 14 Apr 2014 8:02:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Where do I go to avoid a tornado

We're well into April now, statistically the most active month for tornadoes in the United States. Due to the ever evolving patterns in weather and climate, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center updates annual averages by utilizing data over the previous three years. April blows all other months off the field in terms of tornado count, with an average of 350 to May's 238 over the last few seasons. Those numbers were bulked by a particularly devastating 2011 in which 758 April tornadoes killed 363 people.

The staggering April numbers make one wonder, what locations are most prone to twisters and where could one go to be left out of the wind? Probabilities hold that from the beginning of the year to late March, an area from Northern Louisiana eastward to Northern Alabama is at greatest risk for tornadoes. Chances range from 0.1 to 0.4 percent that a tornado will strike within 25 miles. The bull's-eye intensifies and shifts northwestward from Northern Texas to Southern Nebraska through June with chances as high as 1.4% of a tornado striking within 25 miles.

While those probabilities may seem low, consider this. When presented with outwardly appearing low numbers representing tornado risk, a meteorology professor at California University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Mario Majcen posed his students with a question. He asked, "If I were to tell you there is a one in ten chance of seeing a tornado today, what would you do?" When most of his introductory level students didn't react, he asked, "If I were to tell you there is a one in ten chance of dying today, then what?" As you might expect, the latter question elicited a much stronger reaction. Similar to that example, the probabilities noted earlier are quite high given what they entail.

The image associated with this story shows that no area is really tornado free. Surely there are hot spots in the Great Plains, Gulf South and Ohio Valley but even the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic their fair share of twisters.

That returns one to the question, where shall I go to avoid the tornado?

With only two twisters reported since 1951, there is always Alaska.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Damaging wind gusts, hail, heavy rain possible today http://www.wbrz.com/news/damaging-wind-gusts-hail-heavy-rain-possible-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/damaging-wind-gusts-hail-heavy-rain-possible-today/ Weather Mon, 14 Apr 2014 6:38:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Damaging wind gusts, hail, heavy rain possible today

Warm, sticky southerly winds of about 15mph are expected to persist into the afternoon. Thermometers will make the jaunt from a start in the 70s to the lower 80s. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected early with a few peeks of sunshine aiding the quick warm-up. Normally welcome, any glimpse of sunshine will only add juice to the severe threat today. Expect showers and thunderstorms to arrive after 2pm from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. The Baton Rouge area will find storm chances ramping up from 3pm onward. Most of the heftier storms will exit to the east by midnight. Any showers and storms today could become strong or severe with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for some Parishes southeast of the Baton Rouge area.

Lingering showers will be possible into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. Behind the cold front, winds will become northerly and usher in MUCH cooler temperatures. Lows will bottom out in the upper 40s by tomorrow morning.

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: A cold front stretches from the upper Mississippi River Valley into Central Texas. This cold front will approach the area from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours.

A line of showers and storms ongoing ahead of the front will strengthen as it approaches the local area, tapping into some warmer air and Gulf of Mexico moisture. Some holes in the cloud deck out ahead of the front may allow a few peeks of sun today, warming thermometers into the lower 80s and adding instability to the atmosphere. Strong southerly winds from the surface up to the low levels of the atmosphere are in place, promoting a favorable wind profile for severe thunderstorm development. An upper level trough pushing the front east will enhance development while a strong jet stream will further exhilarate the storms. The morning weather balloon launch revealed an atmopshere looking very favorable for many modes of severe thunderstorms. An existing dry pocket of air aloft supports the potential for strong, damaging wind gusts. That same dry intrusion and a moderately low freezing level may allow some hail to reach surface. Any that does, could be large. Impressive speed and directional shear will allow a few storms to rotate, especially those cells that pop ahead of any linear storm segments. Finally, many severe parameters indicate a "juicy" atmosphere for strong storms. Added daytime warmth will further destabilize atmosphere, increasing CAPE.

High resolution models put the stronger showers and storms in the Baton Rouge area around 3pm. The current expectation is for a squall line to trounce through the region. In some locations, the line may stall or begin training with repeated heavier rains.

 


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Annual hurricane season forecast issued http://www.wbrz.com/news/annual-hurricane-season-forecast-issued/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/annual-hurricane-season-forecast-issued/ Weather Thu, 10 Apr 2014 10:41:45 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Annual hurricane season forecast issued

According to Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to present below average tropical activity.

Their outlook calls for 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes with one being considered major (category 3 strength or higher). These numbers fall below the annual averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Last week, wbrz.com reported on a preliminary December report in which the experts assessed expected conditions. The December findings gave a most likely scenario of 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes-numbers that fall in-line with the annual forecast just issued.

Klotzbach and Gray cited cooler than average sea surface temperatures and the possibility of an El Nino developing later this year as two factors which could quell development.

Notable for Gulf Coast interests, the experts calculated a 19% chance for a major hurricane landfall for areas between Brownsville, Texas and the Florida Panhandle. That number falls below the annual average of 30%.

29 years of data and past hurricane seasons are used in formulating this forecast.

In the report, despite a quieter than average forecast Klotzbach and Gray remind coastal residents "that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them... prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted."

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Ending on a nice note http://www.wbrz.com/news/ending-on-a-nice-note/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/ending-on-a-nice-note/ Weather Thu, 10 Apr 2014 9:22:46 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Ending on a nice note

Now three in a row, this afternoon will feature sunshine and warming temperatures. For the first time in two days, some clouds may begin to mix in with our sun. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10mph today but should not yet reintroduce much in the way of humidity. Tonight will follow its predecessor and check in about 5° warmer than the prior night. Some low clouds or fog may develop on account of increasing low level moisture. Either will mix out on Saturday Morning beyond dawn.


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A Blizznado? http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-blizznado-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-blizznado-/ Weather Thu, 10 Apr 2014 3:29:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus A Blizznado?

Weather enthusiasts thought their eyes were playing tricks on them. The webpage for the National Weather Service in Aberdeen, South Dakota was displaying a red box inside of an orange box. That couldn't be... because that indicates a tornado warning during a blizzard warning.

However, on Monday March 31, 2014 that was exactly the circumstance in Yellow Medicine County, South Dakota.


While the insanity of that notion sinks in, it's worth reviewing the definition of each warning. Straight from the National Weather Service homepage, a blizzard warning means: "35 mph or greater wind speeds, considerable falling or blowing snow, and visibilities frequently below a quarter mile are expected to prevail for 3 hours or more." Meanwhile, a tornado warning means: "A severe thunderstorm has developed and has either produced a tornado or radar has indicated intense low level rotation in the presence of atmospheric conditions conducive to tornado development."

In this case, both verified. There was a weak tornado with visible damage present within Yellow Medicine County. To avoid sensationalizing (as if that is possible in this bizarre weather story), it is important to note that this tornado occurred due to a quick warm-up and strong low-level winds associated with thunderstorms just AHEAD of the incoming blizzard. Indeed the blizzard would arrive though, and according to Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow, there was a temperature drop from 79 to 10 degrees over the distance of just a few miles within Southeast South Dakota.

Louisianans like to call Mother Nature moody, but a blizzard warning and a tornado warning together, is nothing shy of weather witchcraft.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.

 


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Slightly warmer repeat http://www.wbrz.com/news/slightly-warmer-repeat/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/slightly-warmer-repeat/ Weather Thu, 10 Apr 2014 3:18:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Slightly warmer repeat

For the second day in a row, skies will feature all blue real estate and sunshine. Aided by a light southerly wind, thermometers will nose just a bit deeper into the 70s than Wednesday. The overnight hours will also be a touch warmer when compared to Wednesday. Despite mainly clear skies, south winds and rising dew points will stop the fall off in the 50s.


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Model Mayhem http://www.wbrz.com/news/model-mayhem/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/model-mayhem/ Weather Wed, 9 Apr 2014 8:01:46 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Model Mayhem

You've likely heard meteorologists and weather forecasters reference the "models." What are these mystical characters in weather lure? Are they beautiful people with a keen knack for meteorology? Or are they some kind of futuristic atmosphere prognosticating robots? Unfortunately, they are closer to the latter.

Weather forecast models are high-speed supercomputers that are programmed to process a series of initial weather conditions to calculate what will occur in the future. With much advancement over the years, these computers have armed weather forecasters with the ability to anticipate what will happen up to 10 days in advance with the highest accuracy being closest to the computer run time.

As you might imagine, there are several versions or iterations of forecast model products. Two of the most widely used and respected are the United States' Global Forecast System (GFS) run by the National Weather Service, and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model (ECMWF) supported by 20 European member states. While both perform dutifully, of late, the GFS has come up on the embarrassing end of the battle in some rather significant weather events.

Most notably perhaps was the GFS long-range forecast blunder in 2012 when the ECMWF would accurately portray "Superstorm Sandy" six days in advance while the GFS showed a standard storm system floundering haplessly out to sea.

On behalf of the Capital Weather Gang, Anne Hale Miglarese reports that on multiple occasions in the last year, the GFS has been badly outperformed. In some events it hasn't just been a several inch difference in snowfall totals from one model to the other, rather a storm versus no storm!

The issue comes not with the forecasters using them, nor the programming of the models themselves, rather the data that is being inputted. Of course, more and accurate initial data are critical to accurate output from the models. However, while a massive spending initiative is underway to ultimately improve U.S. weather observation and forecasting, in the midst of the upgrade, exists the potential for serious drawbacks.

As the federal government is planning and executing an operation to replace satellite systems that have reached the end of their functional life-span, problems associated with such operations threaten to dampen key observations from anywhere between 17-53 months according to the Government Accountability Office.

While a number of possible solutions are at work, including tapping into private sector dollars and equipment, all have been hampered by a struggling federal budget.

The looming premise of such struggles suggests that the future for American weather modeling may get worse before it gets better.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Stretch of dry weather begins http://www.wbrz.com/news/stretch-of-dry-weather-begins/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/stretch-of-dry-weather-begins/ Weather Wed, 9 Apr 2014 3:44:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Stretch of dry weather begins

Bountiful sunshine can be expected on account of a high pressure system centered in Eastern Texas. The clockwise surface wind flow around the high will result in light northerly winds which will serve to hold afternoon highs a bit below average in the lower 70s. Clear skies and light winds tonight will lead to a crisp, spring low in the middle 40s.


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Sunday SELA storms & Cali quake rattle social revelation http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunday-sela-storms-and-cali-quake-rattle-social-revelation/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunday-sela-storms-and-cali-quake-rattle-social-revelation/ Weather Tue, 8 Apr 2014 9:10:48 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sunday SELA storms & Cali quake rattle social revelation

The reporting of weather and geological events are forever changed. The change comes not from the scientists who study and disseminate this information, but from those who consume and interpret it. Certainly, in a few cases, this has created problems. However, there are countless other examples in which mass dispersion of information benefits science.

Recall the recent, and for all intents and purposes, minor Southern California earthquake. While seismologists have seen much greater rumblings on their scales before, it's the roar of social media during this event that registered for them.

From photographs to exclamations, to proof of damage and false prognostications, Twitter, Facebook and other mainstream social media platforms rumbled up with a stream of information during and after the tremors.


The same occurred at home in Southern Louisiana on Sunday Night. A noisy evening in the atmosphere was equally thunderous on Twitter and Facebook. WBRZ meteorologists Robert Gauthreaux and Josh Eachus were the first local weather forecasters to report watches and warnings as they were issued by the National Weather Service. Subsequently, timely updates on storm motions, threats and impacts were on constant supply keeping Twitter and Facebook subscribers instantaneously in tune with rapidly evolving weather conditions.

Like any successful system though, there is an ebb and flow. Herein lies one of the beauties of social media as it pertains to weather forecasting and reporting.

As quickly as the WBRZ weather team was warning, analyzing and broadcasting the impending weather, local residents, viewers and weather enthusiasts were reporting damage, sending pictures and verifying "ground-truth" of what the storms were actually doing. This feedback is indescribably invaluable for meteorologists working to confirm and extend warnings associated with particular thunderstorms. Verifying and extending warnings can ultimately increase lead time and possibly save lives.

From the perspective of this meteorologist, your efforts are very much appreciated and encouraged to continue. Please ask others to follow, retweet and share our information while providing additional feedback and reports when available. Together, we can use social media to share essential weather information.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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One more round of showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more-round-of-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more-round-of-showers/ Weather Tue, 8 Apr 2014 4:34:07 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus One more round of showers

Clouds will be more widespread than sunshine today. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mid-morning and afternoon hours. While showers and storms will likely remain below severe limits, a few could be on the strong side with some gusty winds and small hail-pea to marble sized. Thanks to a wind shifting to the northwest, thermometers shouldn't be climbing much farther than the mid and upper 60s. Tonight, the pattern will settle and skies will gradually clear. The temperature will bottom out at its coolest for the upcoming week in the mid 40s.


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Entire WBRZ viewing area under tornado watch until 3am http://www.wbrz.com/news/entire-wbrz-viewing-area-under-tornado-watch-until-3am/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/entire-wbrz-viewing-area-under-tornado-watch-until-3am/ Weather Sun, 6 Apr 2014 6:16:28 PM Robert Gauthreaux Entire WBRZ viewing area under tornado watch until 3am

BATON ROUGE- The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch effective until 3AM on Monday morning. We are also under a flash flood watch until 1PM on Monday.

A tornado watch means that conditions are conducive for severe storms which can produce tornadoes. The chance for a strong tornado at or above EF2 classification may be possible somewhere in the area as well.

We are currently under a slight risk for severe weather. Stability indices for this event seem to be somewhat favorable for some tornadic development in southeast Louisiana. Strong deep-layer wind shear on top of the very moist airmass over our area will help create conditions favorable for rotating storms. Other hazards include the possibility of strong winds and large hail. Currently our thinking is that the hail threat is greater toward our northwest, but the possibility does exist here in southeast Louisiana.

We are also concerned with localized flooding, with rainfall estimates between 1-2 inches. Greater rainfall totals will likely be higher toward central Mississippi.

Currently, most models call for the stronger storms to move through the Baton Rouge area a little before midnight, lingering into the early morning hours.

Stay tuned to WBRZ for the latest updates as I will be here through the morning hours, and you can also follow me online.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

 


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Exhilarated, Louisiana awaits annual hurricane prediction http://www.wbrz.com/news/exhilarated-louisiana-awaits-annual-hurricane-prediction/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/exhilarated-louisiana-awaits-annual-hurricane-prediction/ Weather Thu, 3 Apr 2014 10:30:40 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Exhilarated, Louisiana awaits annual hurricane prediction

As we turn the calendar to April and enjoy warmer spring temperatures, weather enthusiasts and forecasters know that the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone season is just 60 days away. However, for those not fully engrossed in watching the tropics, you may wonder where they've been.

Though the number of named storms in 2013 was near average, just two hurricanes meant it was the least active year for hurricanes in over 30 years. Furthermore, for the first time since 1994, there were no major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that reaches category 3 strength or higher.

According to the National Hurricane Center, in terms of "accumulated cyclone energy," which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, tropical cyclone activity through the end of October was about 70 percent below the 1981-2010 average. Even rarer perhaps, is the fact that there were NO hurricane strikes in the United States during the year. Since 1951 that has only happened 5 times: 2000, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2010.

Looking forward, experts are finalizing their projections for the upcoming season. A leader in the field, Dr. William Gray, of Colorado State University believes that despite a quiet 2013, one trend that has led to active tropical seasons in the last 20 years will continue. However, the potentially limiting factor will be if and when an El Nino develops.

Gray and the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University lost $100,000 in funding last year, putting the future of the program and long-term Atlantic hurricane prediction in doubt. Donations of $60,000 resulted in just enough to allow the program to issue their annual forecast, due out on April 10.

Gray and his colleagues' preliminary report assessing the expected conditions, released in December, projected the likelihood of 4 scenarios this upcoming season. The most likely scenario, given a 40% likelihood, yielded a net tropical cyclone (NTC) score of 75. That score tends to result in seasons with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes.

Gray's complete prediction is expected in the coming days. Stay with wbrz.com/weather for continuing coverage.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, liking Josh on Facebook and following him on Twitter.


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Warmth to storms http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmth-to-storms/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmth-to-storms/ Weather Thu, 3 Apr 2014 3:28:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warmth to storms

The warmest and most humid day of the week lies ahead with highs in the mid 80s and a continued humid southerly breeze of 10-15mph. Like Tuesday and Wednesday, while some peeks of sun are possible, the trend will be for skies to grow increasingly cloudy through the day. As early as the later afternoon hours, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Only isolated to scattered activity is expected through evening, though any showers and storms could be stronger with hail and gusty winds. Overnight, a cold front will cross the region bringing a better chance for all to find at least a rain shower. In any thunderstorms, some heavy downpours will be possible. Overall, the threat for a stronger storm will increase moving farther north from Baton Rouge.


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