WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2017, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Mon, 16 Jan 2017 19:01:51 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Staying warm, getting wetter http://www.wbrz.com/news/staying-warm-getting-wetter/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/staying-warm-getting-wetter/ Weather Mon, 16 Jan 2017 5:50:24 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Staying warm, getting wetter

Unseasonable warmth will continue this week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Skies will remain mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible today. Highs will be in the mid 70sd with south, southeast winds of 10-15mph. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: More unseasonably warm days are ahead as temperatures don't fluctuate very much despite various systems crossing the area. Mainly cloudy skies are anticipated for the rest of the week with higher rain chances by Wednesday and especially Thursday. Even after the rounds of rain and storms, no drop in temperatures is expected until next week. To put it in perspective, our low temperatures through the weeknights will be as warm as our typical afternoon highs for this time of year. Thunderstorms on Thursday and again this weekend have the possibility of bringing a severe weather threat. We’ll keep you posted.

THE SCIENCE: Upper ridging over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico remains in place. An upper level low pressure over Oklahoma will move northeast into the Great Lakes Region by Wednesday. The next impulse moving through the base of the longwave trough over the Rockies will move to the Southern Plains States by Wednesday Night. The associated front will have an extremely difficult time getting further south than the Interstate 20 corridor through Wednesday as the front continues to parallel the mid-level flow. Rain chances will remain low, in the 30 percent range, through Tuesday Night. Coverage is expected to increase somewhat on Wednesday as the front edges slightly closer. Temperatures will remain extremely warm for Mid-January through the week. On Thursday,  both the ECMWF and GFS models show the impulse over the Southern Plains states taking on a negative tilt as it moves northeastward on Thursday with the axis of the trough crossing the area Thursday Night. Although instability looks to be marginal, low level shear will increase, allowing for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, primarily Thursday Night. There will be a brief dry period behind the trough passage, but there are two more impulses on the heels of Thursday`s system. While much of Friday will be dry, moisture will increase again on Friday Night. A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms may develop on Saturday and again on Sunday. The second will alas push moist air east of the area. On the other side of this system, some slightly cooler air may return to the region.

--Josh


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A nice April weekend ahead http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-nice-april-weekend-ahead/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-nice-april-weekend-ahead/ Weather Fri, 13 Jan 2017 6:09:41 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus A nice April weekend ahead

Several record high temperatures fell on Thursday. New benchmarks were set in Baton Rouge (82°), New Roads (82°) and McComb (80°). So, One thing you can lock in with this weather forecast – it will feel nothing like January in the Baton Rouge area!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another warm afternoon is ahead with Friday highs sailing into the upper 70s. Skies will be partly sunny and a stray drop or two of rain is possible. During the overnight hours, temperatures will struggle to fall back into the low 60s. Some fog could develop by morning.   

Up Next: Saturday and Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s. Each morning brings the possibility of patchy fog, but other than that, there are no major weather concerns. Though warm, the forecast for runners in the Louisiana Marathon, Half, Quarter and 5K is looking dry with light winds and falling humidity through the races. Rain chances will pick up just a bit on Monday but the next chance for organized showers and thunderstorms will hold off until Late Tuesday when a cold front moves into the region. This one does not pack a major punch and temperatures will not fall that much behind it.    

THE SCIENCE: A fast zonal flow in the upper levels will leave a stationary front in position north of the forecast area through the weekend. As moisture advection continues, a few low-topped showers could pop, but overall, the main story will remain above average temperatures. Lighter winds may allow some fog to develop over the next several mornings. Temperatures have only been scaled back a degree or two for Saturday and Sunday as mid-level riding over the Gulf of Mexico begins to flatten and move east. Low level moisture shown at 80-90 percent on 850mb forecast charts suggests at least partly cloudy skies through the weekend. However, an absence of significant forcing mechanisms will mean that rain chances stay at 20 percent or less in that time. By early next week, an amplifying dip in the jet stream over the South Central United States should begin to help along the boundary to our northwest. Increased forcing due to the advancing front should result in better shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are hinting at a negatively tilted trough crossing the Central Gulf Coast in the Wednesday timeframe. At the moment, it is too early to say if severe weather will be a concern, but the jet stream orientation looks favorable. This trough will drag a front through the area by later next week though no significant cold air is following.

--Josh


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Here we go again, record highs in danger http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-we-go-again-record-highs-in-danger/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-we-go-again-record-highs-in-danger/ Weather Thu, 12 Jan 2017 5:37:48 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Here we go again, record highs in danger

Well above average temperatures will headline the weather story through Sunday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Beyond morning fog, a partly sunny afternoon is ahead with high temperatures pegged for the upper 70s. Especially where there is ample sunshine, the 1989 record of 80 degrees is certainly in danger. Like Wednesday, a shower is not impossible, but any flare up would be light and short-lived. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10mph. More fog is expected overnight with a low temperature in the low 60s.  

Up Next: Friday through Sunday will bring partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s. Each morning brings the possibility of patchy fog, but other than that, there are no major weather concerns. Though warm, the forecast for runners in the Louisiana Marathon, Half, Quarter and 5K is looking dry with light winds and falling humidity through the races. The next chance for organized showers and thunderstorms will hold off until Monday.   

THE SCIENCE: A fast zonal flow in the upper levels will leave a stationary front in position north of the forecast area through the weekend. As moisture advection continues, a few low-topped showers could pop, but overall, the main story will remain above average temperatures. As southerly flow continues south of the aforementioned stalled boundary, highs will make a run for 80 degrees on Thursday and Friday. This seems possible as 500mb model progs the thickest atmosphere both days. Temperatures have only been scaled back a degree or two for Saturday and Sunday as mid-level riding over the Gulf of Mexico begins to flatten and move east. Low level moisture shown at 80-90 percent on 850/700mb forecast charts suggests at least partly cloudy if not mostly cloudy skies through the weekend. However, an absence of significant forcing mechanisms will mean that rain chances stay at 20 percent or less in that time. By early next week, an amplifying dip in the jet stream over the South Central United States should begin to help along the boundary to our northwest. Increased forcing due to the advancing front should result in better shower and thunderstorm chances for Monday and Tuesday. While the WECMWF is fairly wet Monday and Tuesday, the GFS is not. For now, a blend of the two models has been used to forecast rain amounts in the 1” range. Even after the front kicks through next week, a significant cool down is not expected.   

--Josh


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Some may snag a shower today http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-may-snag-a-shower-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-may-snag-a-shower-today/ Weather Wed, 11 Jan 2017 5:59:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Some may snag a shower today

Above average temperatures will persist through the week with only slim shower chances.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will bring as good a chance as any this week of a rain shower. Mostly cloudy skies will continue with a few blips on radar possible into the afternoon hours. It will be mild otherwise with highs in the mid 70s. Winds should ease back into the 5-10mph range but remain southerly. Nighttime will stay mild with lows in the low 60s and patchy fog may develop by dawn.

Up Next: A few less clouds are anticipated Thursday and Friday and therefore highs may nudge a bit warmer into the upper 70s. Still, a 20 percent rain chance will be carried. Over the weekend, the Baton Rouge area is expected to stay dry as the next storm system organizes in Texas. Highs will be in the upper 70s with lows in the low 60s.  

THE SCIENCE: Thermometers will be running 10-15 degrees above average Wednesday through Sunday. Fog may develop as a warmer rand more moist air mass moves across cooler land. While an existing low As far as rain goes, other than an isolated shower or two due to moisture advection, no organized precipitation is expected in the absence of any significant lifting mechanisms. A storm system will stall in Eastern Texas Saturday and Sunday and while warm temperatures and clouds are expected to continue, forecast model QPF suggests rain will stay west of the area through Sunday. The evolution of the upper trough associated with this system will determine if and when our next decent chance for rain and cooler temperatures arrives—likely not until at least the middle of next week. Either way, forecast models do not suggest any kind of major cold blast once the next front crosses.

--Josh


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Breezy with clouds moving through http://www.wbrz.com/news/breezy-with-clouds-moving-through/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/breezy-with-clouds-moving-through/ Weather Tue, 10 Jan 2017 5:56:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Breezy with clouds moving through

By tonight, heaters get a break and air conditioning goes back into service!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Temperatures return to well above average readings this afternoon. Even with a mostly cloudy sky, highs in the low 70s are anticipated. Winds will be breezy--southerly at 10-15mph with occassional gusts over 20mph. Overnight, a little less cloud cover could result in some patchy fog development with lows near 60 degrees.  

Up Next: The main forecast challenge through the reminder of the week may be morning fog. Otherwise, afternoons are expected to be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Nights will be muggy by January standards with lows in the low 60s. Rain chances will stay very low, likely around 20 percent, with only a stray shower or two each day.

THE SCIENCE: A largely zonal flow in the upper level will keep the area quiet through the weekend. A slight perturbation or shortwave trough passing north of the region may provide just enough forcing to tap into an increasing mid-level moisture field and create extra cloud cover on Tuesday. By Wednesday, deeper southerly flow will have become well established and this will result in a continued warming trend. Thermometers will be running 10-15 degrees above average Wednesday through Sunday. Additionally, fog may develop as a warmer rand more moist air mass moves across cooler land. While an existing low cloud deck may make this more difficult on Wednesday Morning, patchy fog may become an issue especially Thursday and Friday Mornings. As far as rain goes, other than an isolated shower or two due to moisture advection, no organized precipitation is expected in the absence of any significant lifting mechanisms. A storm system will stall in Eastern Texas Saturday and Sunday and while warm temperatures and clouds are expected to continue, forecast model QPF suggests rain will stay west of the area through Sunday. The evolution of the upper trough associated with this system will determine if and when our next decent chance for rain and cooler temperatures arrives—likely not until at least the middle of next week.

--Josh


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Warming away from a frigid weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/warming-away-from-a-frigid-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warming-away-from-a-frigid-weekend/ Weather Mon, 9 Jan 2017 6:03:44 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warming away from a frigid weekend

The weather is getting back to normal today with more typical January temperatures in Baton Rouge.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Look for near normal temperatures today with highs in the low 60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight will be mostly clear with lows near 50.

Up Next: Believe it or not, normalcy only lasts for one day only because temps will be warmer tomorrow climbing into the 70s, just days after the low 20s! As things warm up, expect increasing clouds into midweek as well. We'll still see sunshine mixed in, but the chance for a few showers crops up through the week also. As a weak system pushes through, it will drop temperatures by Saturday, but don't expect anything temperatures like we experienced this past weekend. In fact, they'll only drop from the

70s back to normal for a day. And with any chances for rain, no washouts expected.

THE SCIENCE: After a very cold weekend across the region, a dramatic warm up will begin on Monday with above normal temperatures in the offing by Tuesday. These above normal temperatures will then persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The cold dome of high pressure that affected the Eastern two thirds of the country will shift eastward and finally into the Atlantic Ocean allowing the return of low level southerly winds by this afternoon and lasting through the week. Overall, the upper level flow is expected to flatten and thus, other than a few ripples or shortwaves, generally quiet conditions will continue. Although a few light showers will be possible during the mid and late week period, the forecast challenge will be the potential for sea fog formation by the mid week period onward as increasing low level moves north across the relatively cool nearshore waters and tidal lakes as well as the initially cool land surface. Closer to the weekend, the zonal flow will begin to breakdown as a trough and eventually closed upper low pressure form in the South Central United States. Forecast models solutions differ on time and intensity of this ordeal but it seems as though any impacts would not come until after next weekend.

--Josh


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UPDATE: dangerous travel possible tonight http://www.wbrz.com/news/update-dangerous-travel-possible-tonight/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/update-dangerous-travel-possible-tonight/ Weather Fri, 6 Jan 2017 6:50:52 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus UPDATE: dangerous travel possible tonight

With rain in around Baton Rouge, frozen precipitation north of the city and freezing temperatures expected tonight -- icy roads and bridges will be a concern tonight. See an updated forecast, detailed timing for your parish or county and how to prepare for the wintry weather in our full breakdown below.


A *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* has been issued for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena and Northern Tangipahoa Parishes until 12am Saturday. This means wintry precipitation could cause slick road surface and you should use caution if driving is necessary.

A *WINTER STORM WARNING* has been issued for Wilkinson, Amite and Pike Counties until 12am Saturday. This means wintry precipitation is expected to accumulate and cause dangerous conditions on roadways. Travel should be avoided.

A *FREEZE WARNING* has been issued for Iberville, Ascension, Assumption and St. James Parishes from 12am – 11am Saturday. This means sensitive plants could be killed due to cold. Ensure people and pets have access to warm shelter.

A *HARD FREEZE WARNING* has been issued for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena and Tangipahoa Parishes as well as Wilkinson, Amite and Pike Counties from 12am – 11am Saturday. This means, in addition to the freeze warning criteria, temperatures could reach 25 degrees or lower for several hours. As a precaution, exposed outdoor pipes should be wrapped.

A *WIND CHILL ADVISORY* has been issued for the entire WBRZ Weather forecast area until 10am Saturday. This means the "feels like" temperature could be at 13 degrees or lower for a few hours. Minimize time outdoors if possible.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As clouds and pockets of rain persist on Friday, cold air advancing from the north will guide thermometers down through the day. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by late afternoon—low 30s north of Baton Rouge, mid 30s in the city and upper 30s south of I-10. Rain will begin to mix with frozen precipitation from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening hours.

Precipitation (medium confidence):

Rain only: Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. Mary Parishes

Rain and sleet: East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge Parishes

Rain, sleet and possibly freezing rain: East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa Parishes

Rain, sleet, freezing rain and possibly snow: Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana Parishes and Amite, Pike, Wilkinson Counties

Estimated Timeline (medium confidence):

Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana Parishes and Amite, Pike, Wilkinson Counties:

10am – rain mixing with sleet

12pm – full transition to sleet, freezing rain

2pm – snow may mix in

10pm – precipitation ends

East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa Parishes:

12pm – rain mixing with sleet

4pm – full transition to sleet, freezing rain

11pm – precipitation ends

East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge Parishes:

4pm – rain mixing with sleet

11pm – precipitation ends

Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. Mary Parishes:

12am – rain ends

Impacts (medium confidence): In the event of an extended period of freezing rain near and north of the Louisiana/Mississippi border, a light glaze of ice, up to an eighth of an inch, could coat trees and power lines. However, this would not be thick enough to down branches or knock out power. In addition, any coating of freezing rain could make driving hazardous. With temperatures quickly falling below freezing tonight, there will not be enough time for surface moisture to evaporate. Therefore roads and bridges could develop ice as far south as the I-12 corridor during. "Black ice" is a concern on less traveled streets where water rapidly freezes and appears wet, but is actually frozen. Any thin ice will melt as the sun returns on Saturday Morning.

Cold temperatures will make it dangerous for people and pets to be outdoors for even a short time. Northerly winds of 10mph will make air temperatures in the 20s feel like the teens at times. In addition, where air temperatures drop below 25 degrees for an extended time, exposed, outdoor pipes could burst.

Actions: Monitor the forecast. Stick with the WBRZ Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter and catch forecast on WBRZ News 2 for updates through the day.

If frozen precipitation occurs or ice develops on road surfaces, have “stay at home” plans for tonight and early tomorrow morning as driving could become dangerous. Make sure that people and pets have access to warm shelter.

Wrap exposed, outdoor pipes as a precaution. For areas south of I-10 experiencing the first freeze of the season, protect sensitive plants.

THE SCIENCE:

Weather Discussion: an area of low pressure will move northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico while a very cold air mass advances into the region. A front associated with the surface low pressure system will cause overrunning precipitation through Friday. As cold air wedges in at the surface, a transition from rain to sleet and freezing rain is expected to occur Friday Afternoon. Exactly where the cutoff between liquid and frozen precipitation occurs will be very difficult to determine, but here is the latest thinking:

In examining a vertical profile of the atmosphere, a warm layer in the lower levels exceeding 3 degrees Celsius will initially exist. Such a warm layer means complete melting of any ice or snow falling through the atmosphere will occur. Below that, will be another freezing layer possibly deep enough for liquid to refreeze into sleet pellets. The ground temperature will be very close to freezing. The warm layer is expected to cool from northwest to southeast through the event. As this occurs, rain will begin to transition to mix with sleet in the same direction. Once surface temperatures slip to or below 32 degrees, freezing rain will begin to glaze surfaces. If the low-level warm layer erodes entirely, some snow may be observed.   

Full erosion of the low-level warm layer is expected to occur for locations north of a line between New Roads and Kentwood and surface temperatures will be below freezing. As such, rain will begin to mix with sleet as early as Friday Afternoon and become a combination of light freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow before ending Friday Night. With temperatures remaining below freezing Friday Night, roads and bridges could become icy.

For Baton Rouge and areas along the I-12 corridor, the atmosphere is forecast to have a much tougher low level warm layer. A shallow cold pocket above the surface will allow some refreezing and sleet to mix with rain. A full transition is unlikely before the precipitation ends. However, with the surface temperature dropping below freezing Friday Night, some icy spots may still occur.

For areas south of Baton Rouge, the warm layer will be too thick and surface temperatures will stay above freezing until Saturday Morning. Therefore, only rain is expected and no icy spots are anticipated.


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Cold and rain return, may mix with sleet before ending http://www.wbrz.com/news/cold-and-rain-return-may-mix-with-sleet-before-ending/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/cold-and-rain-return-may-mix-with-sleet-before-ending/ Weather Thu, 5 Jan 2017 6:27:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Cold and rain return, may mix with sleet before ending

The weather will turn around quickly on Thursday as clouds build and showers arrive later in the afternoon. Nasty weather is in store for Friday with rain showers, falling temperatures and perhaps a bit of sleet mixing in before the precipitation wraps up.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Overcast skies will prevent thermometers from climbing past the upper 50s. Showers are possible as early as the evening hours. As wind stay light, overnight will remain cloudy with a few showers and lows in the upper 40s.

Up Next: As clouds and pockets of rain persist on Friday, cold air advancing from the north will guide thermometers down through the day. Expect an early high in the upper 40s with readings in the upper 30s by evening. After dusk, there could be a brief period of sleet, and possibly freezing rain, north of a New Roads to McComb line before precipitation ends during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. No accumulations and no impacts are expected. Sun will be out for the remainder of the weekend but it will stay cold with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s Sunday Morning.

Look for in-depth analysis through the day right HERE and from WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter.

THE SCIENCE: Mid-level moisture return will begin on Thursday as a warm front sets up in the Gulf of Mexico. Cloud cover will build in through the day and upsloping moisture could result in rain showers as early as Thursday Evening. An associated shortwave trough in the southern stream will move into the region Friday. A surface low will develop in response to this upper energy and track from the South Texas Coast northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle by Saturday Moring. Forecast models are in good agreement on rain showers throughout Friday. As this is happening, a northern stream trough will deepen into the Southeastern United States advancing even colder air into the region. Temperatures are expected to fall through the day Friday with a high occurring in the morning hours and thermometers in the mid 30s by evening. Some light precipitation is expected to linger into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday Morning before ending. Herein presents the biggest forecast challenge of the period. Could there be any wintry weather? At this time, both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a brief transition to a wintry mix Friday Evening before precipitation ends shortly after midnight. As is typical in the Deep South, a number of ingredients must align perfectly for this to occur. First, a warm layer in the lower levels exceeding 3 degrees Celsius suggests complete melting of any snow falling through the atmosphere. Just below that, will be another freezing layer possibly deep enough for liquid to refreeze into sleet pellets. This becomes more likely farther north and west of Baton Rouge. Second, surface temperatures are expected to stay above 32 degrees Fahrenheit everywhere Southwest Mississippi. Therefore, locations south and east of Baton Rouge along I-12 should expect rain only. In Baton Rouge, rain and a few ice pellets are possible. North of a New Roads to McComb line, a rain and sleet is expected with the possibility of a brief period of freezing rain and a few wet snowflakes. Precipitation will rapidly end from Northwest to Southeast, before dawn on Saturday with sun back by the morning. Very cold air will stay in place though with thermometers staying in the 40s on Saturday and dropping into the mid 20s on Sunday Morning. Gradual moderation is expected Monday and Tuesday as a surface high moves toward the East Coast and winds shift southeasterly.

--Josh

 


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Continued chance for wintry mix Friday Evening http://www.wbrz.com/news/continued-chance-for-wintry-mix-friday-evening/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/continued-chance-for-wintry-mix-friday-evening/ Weather Wed, 4 Jan 2017 11:19:07 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Continued chance for wintry mix Friday Evening

Though still not a certainty, the possibility of frozen precipitation has increased for parts of the WBRZ Weather forecast area. Rain could mix with sleet in and around Baton Rouge, but a full transition to frozen precipitation could briefly occur for locations north of I-12. As clouds and pockets of rain persist on Friday, cold air advancing from the north will guide thermometers down through the afternoon. Expect an early high in the upper 40s with readings in the mid 30s by evening. Rain will begin to mix with frozen precipitation from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. While no snow accumulation is possible in the local area, some locations have a 20-30% of picking up a light glaze of ice.

Precipitation Forecast (medium confidence): 

Rain only: Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. Mary Parishes

Rain and sleet: East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge Parishes

Rain, sleet and possibly freezing rain: East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa Parishes

Rain, sleet, freezing rain and possibly snow: Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana Parishes and Amite, Pike, Wilkinson Counties

Current Timeline (low confidence):  

Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana Parishes and Amite, Pike, Wilkinson Counties:

3pm – rain mixing with sleet

5pm – full transition to sleet, freezing rain

7pm – snow may mix in

11pm – precipitation ends 

East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa Parishes:

4pm – rain mixing with sleet

6pm – full transition to sleet, freezing rain

12am – precipitation ends 

East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, West Baton Rouge Parishes:

5pm – rain mixing with sleet

12am – precipitation ends 

Ascension, Assumption, St. James, St. Mary Parishes:

12am – rain ends

Impacts (medium confidence): In the event of an extended period of freezing rain near and north of the Louisiana/Mississippi border, a light glaze of ice, up to an eighth of an inch, could coat trees and power lines. However, this would not be thick enough to down branches or knock out power. In addition, any coating of freezing rain could make driving hazardous. With temperatures dropping below freezing overnight all the way to the I-10 corridor, lingering surface moisture will freeze and some roadways or bridges could develop ice. Any thin slick spots will melt as the sun returns on Saturday Morning. 

Actions: If you live along and north of I-12, monitor the forecast. If frozen precipitation does materialize, have “stay at home” plans for Friday Night as driving could become dangerous. The National Weather Service may issue advisories to highlight this risk.   

WEATHER DISCUSSION: the two major computer forecast models have sped up the arrival of cold air and the end of precipitation, but present an increased likelihood of frozen precipitation and some minor impacts. An area of low pressure will move northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico will a very cold air mass advances into the region. A front associated with the surface low pressure system will cause overrunning precipitation through Friday. As cold air wedges in at the surface, a transition from rain to sleet and freezing rain is expected to occur Friday Afternoon. Exactly where the cutoff between liquid and frozen precipitation occurs will be very difficult to determine, but here is the latest thinking: 

In examining a vertical profile of the atmosphere, a warm layer in the lower levels exceeding 3 degrees Celsius will initially exist. Such a warm layer means complete melting of any ice or snow falling through the atmosphere will occur. Below that, will be another freezing layer possibly deep enough for liquid to refreeze into sleet pellets. The ground temperature will be very close to freezing. The warm layer is expected to cool from northwest to southeast through the event. As this occurs, rain will begin to transition to mix with sleet in the same direction. Once surface temperatures slip to or below 32 degrees, freezing rain will begin to glaze surfaces. If the low-level warm layer erodes entirely, some snow may be observed.   

 

Full erosion of the low-level warm layer is expected to occur for locations north of a line between New Roads and Kentwood and surface temperatures will be below freezing. As such, rain will begin to mix with sleet as early as Friday Afternoon and become a combination of light freezing rain, sleet and possibly snow before ending Friday Night. With temperatures remaining below freezing Friday Night, roads and bridges could become icy.  

For Baton Rouge and areas along the I-12 corridor, the atmosphere is forecast to have a much tougher low level warm layer. A shallow cold pocket above the surface will allow some refreezing and sleet to mix with rain. A full transition is unlikely before the precipitation ends. However, with the surface temperature dropping below freezing Friday Night, some icy spots may still occur. 

For areas south of Baton Rouge, the warm layer will be too thick and surface temperatures will stay above freezing until Saturday Morning. Therefore, only rain is expected and no icy spots are anticipated. 

It is worth repeating that, while this forecast is not a lock, the chance of wintry weather has increased. Either way, given the rare instance of frozen precipitation in the Baton Rouge area, the possibility is worth discussing. Stick with the WBRZ Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter and catch forecast on WBRZ News 2 for updates through the week.


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Governor's office urging residents to brace for wintry weather conditions http://www.wbrz.com/news/governor-s-office-urging-residents-to-brace-for-wintry-weather-conditions/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/governor-s-office-urging-residents-to-brace-for-wintry-weather-conditions/ Weather Wed, 4 Jan 2017 10:17:22 AM Alicia Serrano Governor's office urging residents to brace for wintry weather conditions

BATON ROUGE – The Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness is urging residents to prepare for the coldest weather of the winter season that is expected in the state later this week.

The National Weather Service says that winter rain will impact parts of the state starting Friday.

The NWS Shreveport office reports that temperatures will fall into the 20's in the state on Thursday night and a light rain may begin to fall and increase across the area by midday on Friday. The weather service says that much of the rain may fall south of I-20 and a snow, sleet mix can be expected north of I-20. The rain however should taper off by Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Snowfall and sleet should melt quickly after reaching the ground as temperatures on Friday will rise to the upper 30's. However, when temperatures fall to below freezing on Friday night, bridges and overpasses may become slick or even impassable as melted water begins to refreeze.

GOHSEP Director James Waskom said for residents to prepare in advance for the weather conditions.

"Get a game plan to protect friends or loved ones who may not be prepared to handle freezing temperatures. Protect your pets from the cold," Waskom said.

Waskom said that GOHSEP is monitoring the weather and will be ready to support state and local agencies if needed.

For WBRZ's weather forecast on the wintry weather click here.


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Trending colder, rain returns tomorrow night http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-colder-rain-returns-tomorrow-night/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-colder-rain-returns-tomorrow-night/ Weather Wed, 4 Jan 2017 6:11:13 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trending colder, rain returns tomorrow night

As colder air spills into the region, another storm system organizes to bring rain (and possibly more) to the area Thursday Night into Saturday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies with much cooler temperatures. Northerly winds will mean that morning readings in the mid 50s won’t move much farther than 60 degrees for the afternoon high. Overnight will bring mostly clear skies, light winds and a low temperature near 40 degrees.   

Up Next: On Thursday, temperatures will remain below average as clouds return to the area. Showers are expected to return as early as Thursday Evening and persist through Friday with another quarter to half inch of rain possible. Temperatures will be steady or falling through the 40s on Friday, ending up just above freezing on Saturday Morning. At this time, there appears to be a slim possibility that a few sleet pellets could mix in north of a New Roads to McComb line before rain ends Early Saturday Morning. However, no impacts are expected due to wintry weather. For more, follow WBRZ weather on Facebook and Twitter to get the latest updates as new information becomes available through the day.

THE SCIENCE: A cold front is pushing through the area today allowing a much cooler air mass to spill into the region. Some low level moisture trapped near the front may lead to mostly cloudy skies through the day but the more sensible change will be in temperatures. While the morning starts off similar to Tuesday with readings in the 50s, little upward moderation is expected as winds shift northerly. Tranquil weather will continue through Thursday Afternoon as the front sags southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A deepening upper level trough across the Eastern United States will continue to hold temperatures down through the week. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough in the southern stream will move into the region Friday. A surface low will develop in response to this upper energy and track from the South Texas Coast northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle by Saturday. Forecast models are in good agreement that rain showers will overspread the area Early Friday Morning and lingering into Early Saturday Morning, with the steadiest period occurring on Friday Afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain steady or fall through Friday as cold air advection takes place on the northern side of the surface low moving south of Louisiana. The main forecast challenge is with regard to the possibility of frozen precipitation. At this time, both the GFS and ECMWF models are suggesting a brief transition to a wintry mix overnight Friday before precipitation ends. This is a fairly unfounded proposition from both models which wield atmospheric profiles unsupportive of frozen precipitation. Soundings show a warm layer exceeding 3 degrees Celsius suggesting complete melting of any frozen precipitation, taking snow out of the equation. With a surface temperature expected to stay above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, freezing rain should not be a concern either. If anything, and that is a major if, a lower level pocket of cold air could feasibly advance far enough south to support a few sleet pellets on a line along and north of New Roads to McComb. The remainder of the weekend will be drier but remain chilly with some upper 20s possible Saturday and Sunday Night.  

--Josh


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Homeowners say security cams captured tornado in Bush http://www.wbrz.com/news/homeowners-say-security-cams-captured-tornado-in-bush/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/homeowners-say-security-cams-captured-tornado-in-bush/ Weather Tue, 3 Jan 2017 6:10:08 PM Kevin Dupuy Homeowners say security cams captured tornado in Bush

BUSH -A homeowner in Bush, La. says their home security cameras captured a tornado outside their home Monday afternoon.

Tracy Rauch posted two videos of storm on Facebook Tuesday.

“Close call! And yes, what they say it [sic] true… it sounds like a freight train,” Rauch said in the post. “We didn’t even get to the hall bathroom before it stopped.”

The video shows heavy winds blowing over trees and home decorations. At one part of the video, users can see swirling wind move across the frame before a large tree is blown down.


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Like it mild? Enjoy today http://www.wbrz.com/news/like-it-mild-enjoy-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/like-it-mild-enjoy-today/ Weather Tue, 3 Jan 2017 5:58:59 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Like it mild? Enjoy today

The area will go from mild temperatures to a more wintry feel over the next 36 hours.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 70s. Skies stay mostly clear overnight with lows near 50. 

Up Next: The area will stay dry for most of the rest of the week. Another front is expected to push through Wednesday. This front will pass dry, but it will usher in some cooler air and drop our temperatures down for the remainder of the week. You can expect some area high temperatures to struggle for the low 50s. Overnights will be cold again, with the 30s in play for the back half of the week. It looks like we won't be seeing the thermometers in the 60s for at least a week after Wednesday. As we approach the weekend, a few more clouds are possible along with a few showers.

THE SCIENCE: Drier air will arrive on Tuesday, but any significant cold air advection is lagging until Wednesday. Forecast models are consistent with temperatures are therefore the near term forecast is undergoing little change. By Thursday we can call it chilly, with temperatures struggling to get past the lower and middle 50s. Ending the week there is much disagreement in timing between ECMWF and GFS models on next upper level shortwave as well as on temperatures. The European is 24 hours quicker and considerably colder than the American. The persistence of this disagreement prompts a blend of forecast models solutions. At this time, the GFS does not support mention of wintry precipitation, but the ECMWF would support at least some sleet going into the weekend. Guidance should come to a better consensus in the coming days. Temperatures will be generally below average through the weekend.

--Josh


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Risk for severe weather today http://www.wbrz.com/news/risk-for-severe-weather-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/risk-for-severe-weather-today/ Weather Sun, 1 Jan 2017 7:08:02 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Risk for severe weather today

We're under an *ENHANCED* risk for severe weather today...so what does that mean?

It's not entirely uncommon, and widespread severe weather isn't likely. Instead, expect a line of storms to move through around the early afternoon, some of which could become a little intense. Some gusty winds are possible, along with an isolated tornado.

The ground is fairly saturated, and a flood watch continues into Monday evening. This is different than "flash" flooding which is more sudden and usually happens during the event itself. At this time, most area rivers are not expected to make it into minor flood stage.

Be vigilant and stay updated through the day. Beyond this, the sun returns and eventually even some cool temperatures. I'll be here with you tonight and through the morning tomorrow.

Expect Highs in the low 70s. Overnight, partly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s.

We will slowly cool with the passage of a front leading into a fairly cool pattern midweek. Highs will likely stay out of the 60's even through the weekend. A few nights in the 30's are expected. We'll see some sunshine until the weekend, when some cloudiness is expected with the chance for showers into Saturday and Sunday. Beyond the weekend, it looks like we could see another cold front pass through.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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FLOOD WATCH continues until Monday morning http://www.wbrz.com/news/flood-watch-continues-until-monday-morning/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/flood-watch-continues-until-monday-morning/ Weather Sat, 31 Dec 2016 4:44:05 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III FLOOD WATCH continues until Monday morning

The National Weather Service has issued a FLOOD WATCH for the WBRZ viewing area until Monday morning. A FLOOD WATCH is different than a Flash Flood Watch.

A prolonged period of wet weather is expected to continue through the weekend. Today's rainfall however is expected to be the heaviest and most widespread.

We expect 2-4" of rainfall in total this weekend. Only 1.01" is necessary before midnight Saturday to officially break the record for the wettest year in Baton Rouge's recorded history.

Unlike flash flooding, a flood watch means that more casual areal or river flooding is possible, as opposed to sudden flooding during the event. Some area rivers and streams are expected to rise. While it's unlikely that we will see many exceed minor flood stage, it is still possible.

A repeat of August flooding is NOT expected.

For the latest and fastest information in the area, follow WBRZ on Twitter and Facebook.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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One last chill and a broken record to end 2016? http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-last-chill-and-a-broken-record-to-end-2016-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-last-chill-and-a-broken-record-to-end-2016-/ Weather Fri, 30 Dec 2016 8:19:11 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III One last chill and a broken record to end 2016?

Expect today to be the coldest day of the week with temperatures only rising to the middle 50s under day of mostly sunny skies overall. It will start off a little cloudy. Some clouds may persist along the coast. We won't be as cold, but still chilly tonight as temps will fall to the mid 40s with increasing clouds.

As an area of high pressure over Texas moves eastward, it will open up the Gulf of Mexico and inject a lot of warm air and moisture across our area. This will help prime the atmosphere for rain through the weekend along with a few thunderstorms. This sets up a wet scenario starting with isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, then abundant rainfall just in time to end 2016. You'll need to change out today's light jacket today for a rain jacket tomorrow night. 

We are expecting 2"-4" overall through Sunday. We only need less than inch before midnight tomorrow to officially break the record for the wettest year in Baton Rouge (on record). Rain lingers into early New Year's Day, then we get a break by the afternoon, with another impulse bringing some showers late Sunday, which will also linger into Monday. Beyond that, we dry off a bit. No river flooding is expected, but localized flooding is possible so be aware of some flooded streets potentially.

Temperatures drop again toward the end of next week.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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More of the same http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-of-the-same/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-of-the-same/ Weather Tue, 27 Dec 2016 9:38:58 AM Meteorologist Keller Watts More of the same

Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun and a stray shower. Highs in the mid 70s. Overnight, mostly cloudy with lows in the low 60s.

A weak front moved through yesterday, but another front expected tomorrow will actually lower our temperatures to "normal" levels for this time of year. This will also lead to some more sunshine by Friday.

Into New Year's Eve, temperatures rise a little but it may still be cool enough at midnight to necessitate a light jacket. The first day of 2017 looks to be a bit wet and warm as another system is expected to pass through the area. This will lead to some lingering showers into Monday before we see a drop in temperatures as a result.

By the way, it's very possible we could dip into the 30's again for one night before the new year.

--KCW


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Warm with spotty showers and morning fog http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-with-spotty-showers-and-morning-fog/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-with-spotty-showers-and-morning-fog/ Weather Tue, 27 Dec 2016 6:35:22 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Warm with spotty showers and morning fog

Mostly cloudy with scattered spotty showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Cloudy overnight with a few sprinkles and lows in the low 60s.

Yesterday's pattern continues into today. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a slightly better chance of of scattered and spotty showers today. Overall intensity and coverage isn't expected to be significant. A few peeks of sunshine are even possible today. It will continue to be warm and humid. This pattern continues into tomorrow as a cold front sluggishly pushes across the area. Once it does finally move through, we will see another front by Thursday and this one will allow temperatures return to normal for this time of year, but even that won't last long. Temperatures are expected to rise a bit into New Year's Day with a better chance of rain than what we expect today. New Year's Eve looks cool, dry, and seasonable. You may need a light jacket for midnight.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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One more seasonable day before 2017? http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more-seasonable-day-before-2017-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more-seasonable-day-before-2017-/ Weather Mon, 26 Dec 2016 6:11:41 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III One more seasonable day before 2017?

A sluggish cold front moves across the area through the week. This will bring clouds across the area and a few showers in advance of the front. Expect some showers to remain fairly isolated today. It won't be completely overcast all day. You can expect some peeks of sunshine as temperatures rise into the upper 70s.

Overnight we remain mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers and leading into a Tuesday afternoon with a little better chance of some rain.

The front finally pushes off midweek, and temperatures will drop to seasonable levels for this time of year just in time for New Year's Eve. You might need a light jacket, but don't expect a deep freeze. 

New Year's Day looks a little gloomy and wet, but we'll see how that forecast develops through the week.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Mele Kalikimaka http://www.wbrz.com/news/mele-kalikimaka/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/mele-kalikimaka/ Weather Fri, 23 Dec 2016 6:40:03 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Mele Kalikimaka

A warming trend is expected through the holiday weekend.

The status quo is maintained for Friday although a little more sun can be expected. A warm front will then lift through the region and southerly winds will allow highs into the upper 60s. Overnight will be milder yet, with a low in the upper 50s. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will have high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with partly sunny skies. The next cold front is projected for Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. The front will likely stall, not fully kicking through the area until late in the week--thus clouds and showers may linger. Don'?t look for a big cool down on the other side of that front either. In fact, no major cold snaps are foreseen for the remainder of the year.


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