WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2015, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Fri, 30 Jan 2015 09:01:43 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Eachus: Certainties in a world of maybes http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-certainties-in-a-world-of-maybes/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-certainties-in-a-world-of-maybes/ Weather Thu, 29 Jan 2015 3:06:46 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Eachus: Certainties in a world of maybes

Meteorologist's closest allies have become their biggest enemies. TOGETHER, we need to fix it.

Merriam Webster defines a forecast as follows: "to say that (something) will happen in the future | to predict (something, such as weather) after looking at the information that is available."

I share that because in order to make progress, meteorologists and weather consumers need to comprehend the meaning of "forecast" and realize the perils (and benefits) of "information that is available."

For significant weather events these days, there are hundreds of forecasts. However, with the mainstream juxtaposition of social media and weather information, those forecasts are no longer coming exclusively from meteorologists. Options are good and differing ideas have led to some of the greatest discoveries in history, but weather is a phenomenon that can significantly impact human lives. Thus, we should recognize two certainties:

1. Weather information MUST come from trained professionals.
2. Professionals have to JOINTLY and CLEARLY communicate human impacts in significant weather.

PROBLEMS:

You may call it the "Blizzard of 2015," "Juno," or even "Blizzard Bust." I call it a stern reminder that some meteorologists communicate significant weather as well as a cranky 4-year old craving a cookie. If you've heard of "wish-casting," that analogy will make more sense as we continue.

The forecast models-supercomputers that plug thousands, if not millions, of complex equations to generate a picture of what the atmosphere will look like more than a week into the future. There is the GFS, the ECMWF, the NAM and the National Weather Service's newest gadget-the HRRR. For many, those letters are a set of acronyms that look like tiles you'd wish to discard in a game of scrabble. For meteorologists they are modern forecasting luxuries and simultaneously the field's biggest crutch.

Similar to a basic surface map, some model outputs can be easily deciphered and shared by any weather enthusiast. While convenient, this ease of use also allows outlandish and sometimes bad forecast information to spread rapidly. And because chaos has a mass appeal in our society, the outlandish forecasts are often heard more loudly than grounded, credible information. Strikes aren't just against amateurs though.

Trained professionals have allowed forecast model madness to alter their behavior as well. In a laboratory version of high-stakes gambling, using computer models for weather forecasting has turned into a game of pick your pony and bet the house on it. Consequently, there have been significant differences in forecasts between top-ranking weather agencies in the country. Even just before the most recent snowstorm, a national media outlet felt that their forecast was so superior to others that they used it as a ploy to boost viewership. Regardless of actual or perceived forecast accuracy, burying government agencies and local meteorologists to drive ratings is the antithesis of responsibility. Goals during high impact weather events should be to provide critical, beneficial information to viewers. These are codes discussed and agreed upon at annual conferences and symposiums. Undermining colleagues in an attempt to meet these goals not only makes an organization look silly to trained professionals, but also wastes valuable time.

Aggravating matters, forecast models still lie somewhere between Mars and Thunderdome in terms of regulation. There are no guidelines as to when they should and should not be shown. There is no unwritten law that dictates a barrier which we are not to cross. For instance-when was the last time a Skew-T diagram got hundreds of retweets? How about the 700mb omega map that went viral? Meteorologists get what I'm referencing and that's the point. We just don't do it. But there is something irresistible about sharing the forecast model that depicts a monster snowstorm or land-falling hurricane, nine days ahead of time. Some of the most respected meteorologists in this country can't help but blast such images all over the internet hoping to score another point in an imaginary popularity contest.

Make no mistake about it, the hype and backlash from "JunoBlizzardMageddon" would have been vastly lower prior to the advent of social media. Nevertheless, with the presence of forecast models sure to increase on social media, ongoing problems can be alleviated if we all keep some basic thoughts in mind.

SOLUTIONS:

Shouldn't weather consumers have a right to know about all information available? Some are indeed grateful for advanced notification of any and all possibilities. Others will accuse meteorologists of trying to incite fear or panic. At least from a basic media perspective, even the Society of Professional Journalists believes "the public is entitled to as much information as possible to judge the reliability and motivations of sources."

As forecasters, we need to realize the difference between preference and responsibility. Even though a preferred forecast model displays an extreme event, we must RESPONSIBLY convey this threat. If we are absolutely compelled to share model data, we need to show ALL possibilities or at least properly label images with reference to time and disclaimers to the uncertainty. Ideally, we are issuing a FORECAST rather than confusing consumers with "options."

As weather consumers, decide how you'd would like to receive weather information. If forecast models, possibilities and scientific jargon drive you nuts, seek simpler images on a local news broadcast, website or the local National Weather Service main webpage. Consume and share information responsibly. Make sure your resources are credible. If you have never heard of an organization and they have nothing more than a Facebook Page or Twitter feed, the information could be questionable.

Certainly, a lot of computer model information is available for meteorologists to make a forecast. Certainly, not all computer model information is an actual forecast. Maybe one will be right, maybe all will be wrong. Maybe we can limit forecast-botch backlash by relaying all possibilities and communicating potential impacts from significant weather events rather than picking sides-delivering the certainties from our world of maybes.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Enjoy 70s before they vanish http://www.wbrz.com/news/enjoy-70s-before-they-vanish/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/enjoy-70s-before-they-vanish/ Weather Thu, 29 Jan 2015 3:35:04 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Enjoy 70s before they vanish

Get out and enjoy! Thursday will be the final day of above average temperatures for the next several days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching front, afternoon thermometers will again soar above 70° and into the mid 70s for most locations. Alas, some clouds may try to develop ahead of the front, but no precipitation. During the overnight hours, we'll notice some passing clouds and thermometers heading back into the 40s as a cold front crosses.

Looking Ahead: Behind the cold front, above average Friday Morning temperatures will actually struggle to get back to average in the afternoon. Though we can still look for a good deal of sun, northerly winds will stop warming in the lower 60s. On Saturday clouds will begin to increase and thermometers will keep to the 60s. Expect rain to arrive on Sunday and with some added moisture and instability an imbedded thunderstorm may also occur. By next week, chilly air will again settle into the region with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

For more on the days to come, view our weekly weather vlog: http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-january-29-2015/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A surface high pressure system set up along the eastern seaboard is allowing local winds to take on a southeasterly direction. As a result, the atmospheric column is warming and moistening ahead on an approaching cold front. The warm/moist combo will lead to a very mild Thursday but also some cloud cover as frontal lift taps into the available moisture. As the frontal passage occurs overnight, cold air may not necessarily impact Friday Morning lows. Should the front speed up a bit, morning thermometers could go quite a bit lower than expected. Either way, we'll notice high temperatures much cooler in the afternoon. The front will clip south into the Gulf while a wave in the jet stream swings through the Southern United States. As the jet stream takes on a southwesterly flow-this moisture ascent in the atmosphere will lead to a quick increase in cloud cover on Saturday. Then, as the main piece of energy ejects northeastward through our area on Sunday with a surface low pressure passing to the north and attendant cold front, we can expect a period of rain. With uplift available and some instability in the mid-levels, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Next, a strong surface high pressure system sinking south from Canada will drive much cooler air into the Eastern United States for early next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Almost a record http://www.wbrz.com/news/almost-a-record/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/almost-a-record/ Weather Wed, 28 Jan 2015 3:53:11 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Almost a record

After near record warmth on Tuesday, a sunny Wednesday we'll aim for a fourth of five straight days above average.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Yet again, a weak front has pushed through the region shifting our light winds to the northeast. Despite ample sunshine, this subtle wind shift will be enough to keep afternoon highs 5-10° cooler than Tuesday. Speaking of Tuesday, the high temperature of 77° set at 3:44pm was only 4° shy of the record set in 2009. The overnight hours may contain some passing clouds and patchy pre-dawn fog with lows in the mid 40s.

Looking Ahead: Expect Thursday to be another warm one with most locations eclipsing 70° during the afternoon hours. Though generally sunny, a few clouds will begin to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will drive some cooler air into the Gulf South for the conclusion of the work week but still no rain. Friday and Saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with seasonably cool nights. Clouds will increase through the weekend with rain arriving by Sunday.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The second cold front this week has slipped south into the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting local weather won't reveal much change from Tuesday other than a slight wind shift to the northeast and a minor drop in afternoon highs. A high pressure system building into the Eastern United States and the lifting of a longwave trough out of the region will allow southeasterly surface winds to inject milder air into the region for Thursday. Then, a third cold front will be driven south. This front will tap into a bit cooler air and send thermometers to or below average into the weekend. With a flattened jet stream, the coldest air will be barricaded north. However, the jetstream will slowly take on a positive tilt allowing upsloping to produce a thickening cloud deck on Saturday. As a result, temperatures will keep to the 60s. Alas, a wave trekking through the tilting jet will stir up a surface low pressure system in Texas and advance that low and a front with rain into the area for Super Bowl Sunday. Behind this system, chillier air will kick off early next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Blizzard-stricken East digs out amid forecast 2nd-guessing http://www.wbrz.com/news/blizzard-stricken-east-digs-out-amid-forecast-2nd-guessing/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/blizzard-stricken-east-digs-out-amid-forecast-2nd-guessing/ Weather Wed, 28 Jan 2015 12:02:56 AM Hunter Robinson Blizzard-stricken East digs out amid forecast 2nd-guessing

BOSTON, MA - New Englanders savaged by a blizzard packing knee-high snowfall and hurricane-force winds are digging out as New Yorkers and others spared its full fury question whether forecasts were overblown.

The storm buried the Boston area in more than 2 feet of snow and lashed it with howling winds that exceeded 70 mph. While Philadelphia, New York and New Jersey had been warned they could get 1 to 2 feet of snow, New York City received just under 10 inches and Philadelphia a mere inch or so. New Jersey got up to 10 inches.

The glancing blow left forecasters apologizing and politicians defending their near-total shutdown on travel.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio defended their travel bans.


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Sun again http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-again/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-again/ Weather Tue, 27 Jan 2015 3:26:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sun again

Sunny afternoons will continue in the Southern United States while travel impacts from a major Northeast blizzard are felt around the country.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday starts off cooler and ends up warmer when compared to Monday. Sun will again headline the skies as thermometers make it close to 70°. Overnight, we'll maintain clear skies with a dip to near 40°.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday will mimic Tuesday in terms of weather-perhaps a few degrees cooler. We'll continue to be very fortunate (when compared to those in New England) to have no weather interruptions right through Thursday. In fact, Thursday Afternoon, many spots will again make it into the 70s. Then a cold front will cross the region sending us into a downward temperature turn as we await some rain on Sunday.

It is worth noting that while certainly no weather impacts are expected from the historic Northeastern U.S. blizzard, national travel is being affected with air carriers announcing thousands of cancellations. Of course, when Northeast hubs shut down, flights around the nation can be altered. It would be a good idea to frequently check the status of any flights you may have this week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Yet another very weak cold front will pass through the region on Tuesday Night with no real effect on skies. But, a wind shift will keep Wednesday highs a touch cooler than Tuesday. Then, as high pressure sets up to the northeast, a southerly component to winds along with sunshine will allow ample warming on Thursday with many areas eclipsing 70°. With the dominant high pressure in the west, northerly winds will drive a third cold front this week into the South on Thursday Night. This one, like its predecessors has little moisture to seize and won't produce rain. However, a more noticeable cool down is expected with thermometers easing back to below average (63°/42°) readings into the weekend. As this front stalls to our south and an upper-level disturbance digs into the Midwest by Sunday, clouds will increase with a wet second half of the weekend looking likely.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Millions hunker down as Northeast storm totals downgraded http://www.wbrz.com/news/millions-hunker-down-as-northeast-storm-totals-downgraded/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/millions-hunker-down-as-northeast-storm-totals-downgraded/ Weather Tue, 27 Jan 2015 12:23:50 AM Hunter Robinson Millions hunker down as Northeast storm totals downgraded

NEW YORK, N.Y. - Tens of millions of people along the East Coast hunkered down for a storm that for most failed to live up to predictions that it would be one of the worst they'd ever seen.

Forecasters originally said the storm could bring 1 to 3 feet of snow and punishing hurricane-force winds. But early Tuesday, they downgraded most of those numbers, saying New England would fare the worst, but even then not as bad as expected.

Bruce Sullivan of the National Weather Service said Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, could get 2 feet of snow, New York 10 inches to 20 inches, and Philadelphia and central New Jersey about 6 inches.

On Monday, in preparation for the storm, officials ordered workers to go home early, banned travel and closed bridges and tunnels.


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Count 'em http://www.wbrz.com/news/count-em/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/count-em/ Weather Mon, 26 Jan 2015 3:56:11 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Count 'em

We'll keep tallying sunny, seasonable days while the Northeastern hubs prepare for an historic blizzard.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Today will be a bit cooler than Sunday-reason being, those winds you probably noticed during the latter half of the weekend. They accompanied a dry cold front that will notch temperatures down for the next 12-24 hours. Despite sunshine, highs will barely make it back to 60°. Overnight will be clear and cool with lows near 40°.

Looking Ahead: Hopefully you'll have time on a lunch break or after work and school this week to enjoy the outdoors. We'll be very fortunate (when compared to those in New England) to have no weather interruptions right through Friday. Days will feature mostly to partly sunny skies with highs slowly climbing through the 60s each day. Nights will be seasonably cool and clear with lows in the middle 40s.

It is worth noting that while certainly no weather impacts are expected from the historic Northeastern U.S. blizzard, national travel WILL be affected with air carriers projecting many flight cancellations. Of course, when Northeast hubs shut down, flights around the nation can be altered. It would be a good idea to frequently check the status of any flights you may have this week.

For a closer look at the incredible snow totals expected in the Northeast through mid-week, see the associated image.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A large and broad area of surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will hold from the Midwest westward through this week. The result will be a weak west, northwest wind but these winds will be coming from modified continental air mass which has done some sufficient warming. As a result, our typically chilly northwesterly breeze may keep us cool on Monday but we'll notice gradual warming each afternoon thereafter. The next storm system doesn't figure to organize until next weekend, meaning no rain chances until then.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Gray http://www.wbrz.com/news/gray/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/gray/ Weather Fri, 23 Jan 2015 3:50:46 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Gray

Overcast skies will lead to a second straight chilly and damp day throughout the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: While a few lingering showers will be possible through the day-especially before noon-most of the time will simply be spent beneath overcast skies. The cloud deck will keep afternoon thermometers well below average with highs struggling to reach 50°. A bit of clearing will occur overnight allowing temperatures to fall back into the middle 30s.

Looking Ahead: The weekend will mark the beginning of another extended stretch of dry, tranquil weather. A lot of sunshine on Saturday will enable temperatures to recover into the middle and upper 50s. A cool start can again be anticipated for Sunday followed by a sunny afternoon in the 60s. Save for a reinforcing cold front on Monday with a passing cloud or two, all clear skies are expected through Wednesday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs near 60° and lows in the upper 30s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A positively tilted upper-level trough will continue to sweep eastward shoving a surface low pressure system farther away from Southeast Louisiana. Until the trough crosses, the atmosphere will maintain some moisture. Coupled with warmer air arriving aloft, an inversion will likely develop keeping a cloud deck in place for much of Friday. Once the trough exits east into Saturday, surface high pressure will build into the Midwest, drying the atmosphere and eroding the cloud deck. Generally speaking, areas of high pressure in the Mountain West will continue to reinforce dry and cool local conditions Saturday through Wednesday. A cold front may be driven through on Monday, but will have no moisture to work with and skies are expected to remain mainly clear through the period.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Dreary and chilly again http://www.wbrz.com/news/dreary-and-chilly-again/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/dreary-and-chilly-again/ Weather Thu, 22 Jan 2015 3:53:44 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Dreary and chilly again

Akin to last week, cloudy, chilly and damp conditions will prevail through at least Friday Morning.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday marks the return of cloud cover and rain showers. Steadier and heavier rain is expected to develop by the afternoon hours. It would be a good idea to carry along an umbrella with you today and evening commuters should anticipate a slower ride home from work. As far as temperatures go, the clouds and showers will really burden the thermal rise leaving many locations in the upper 50s for highs. Overnight, periodic rain will taper to scattered showers. All the while, a cloud deck will hold lows in the low to mid 40s.

More on our Thursday rain and the weeks beyond can be found in our latest weather vlog --> http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-january-21-2015/

Looking Ahead: Moving through Friday, shower activity will wrap up with overcast skies potentially giving way to a few late afternoon peeks of sun. Highs though, will struggle to eclipse 50°. With continued clearing and the region beneath the influence of a cooling northerly breeze, low temperatures will bottom out at, or just above, freezing on Saturday Morning. A mainly clear weekend is ahead with Saturday highs in the mid 50s, Sunday lows in the mid 30s, followed by afternoon highs right around average-62°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An area of low pressure system will advance from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle through Friday. Bringing along a more saturated atmosphere, the storm system will produce respectable rain totals around Southeastern Louisiana. As mid-level vorticity maxima and the strongest omega (uplift) parameters are expected on Thursday Afternoon, so too are the steadiest periods of rain. While the atmosphere is expected to remain saturated through Friday Morning, most of the surface and upper level support will slide east. Plus, a dry slot entering the mid-levels will cap off deep moisture and any efficient rain-making processes. Continued low-level saturation and a strong inversion (temperature warming with height) will make it difficult for a stratus deck to erode on Friday. Clearing, if at all, will only partially occur late in the day.

By Saturday Morning, a surface high pressure system building into Texas will increase the drier, northerly winds and should thoroughly clear our skies of clouds. In fact, several reinforcing fronts with cool, dry air will provide sunny and seasonable afternoons right into the middle of next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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One more http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/one-more/ Weather Wed, 21 Jan 2015 3:41:29 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus One more

Changes to the pleasant local conditions will begin during the overnight hours.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Despite a cold front passing through the area last night, another tranquil and mild day is in store for Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. Many locations will produce an above average high in the middle 60s under mostly sunny skies. At night, skies will be introduced to more cloud cover which will hold thermometers up a bit-in the middle to upper 40s for most.

Looking Ahead: Thursday and Friday will pair up to be dreary, damp and chilly. It now appears as though this system won't just be of the nuisance variety, rather a decent rainmaker with 1-2" falling in many locations. Socked into clouds with periods of rain and a northerly component to the winds, the daily temperature ranges on Thursday and Friday will be only 5-10° compared to the 30° ranges we had felt with the clear skies. So, Thursday highs will be in the mid 50s with lows only falling into the low 40s. Friday, highs will likely fail to escape the upper 40s. Fortunately, this system is progressive and won't linger very long. Thanks to some clearing, Saturday will begin on a cold note-just above freezing-with an afternoon recovery into the upper 50s. More pleasant weather is ahead to wrap up the weekend.

More on the approaching rain and the weeks beyond can be found in our latest weather vlog --> http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-january-21-2015/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A cold front has passed through the region with little initial effect. Over the next 24-36 hours though, this front will serve as one of two focusing mechanisms for a developing low pressure system in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A positively tilted upper level trough will ride through the Southern States and into a baroclinic region (area with two distinct air masses) along the Texas Coast. As an area prone to storm development, these two features will kick up a low pressure system that will then trek from west to east across the Gulf through Friday. Forecast models have been in good agreement that overcast skies will kick off Thursday, followed by periods of rain Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning, with lingering showers and slow to break clouds into Friday Afternoon. Models have also become more bullish with local precipitation totals bringing 1-2" to most locations through Friday Morning. Thursday Evening appears to be the most likely time period for steadier and heavier rain. With all of this being said, forecast models also unsurprisingly display cooler than average temperatures thanks to the lack of daytime solar radiation. By the weekend, a surface high building into Texas will help to return clearer skies but northerly winds will hold cooler than average temperatures.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Mild and dry again http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-and-dry-again/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-and-dry-again/ Weather Tue, 20 Jan 2015 3:30:03 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Mild and dry again

After a warmer morning, a slightly warmer afternoon is on tap across the Gulf South.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mainly sunny skies are again expected today and after a morning spent in the 40s (compared to 30s Monday), high temperatures should make it to or even eclipse 70° (compared to 60s Monday). Either way, we are experiencing warmer than average temperatures for late January. Overnight a weak front will pass through the region, generally unnoticed save for some passing clouds. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Looking Ahead: Effects from a cold front will barely be felt on Wednesday with highs making it above average again. Overall, Wednesday will end up being a transitional day around the region with a few more clouds around. A disturbance building in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico will continue to advance cloud cover into the area on Thursday with rain showers arriving later in the day. The result will be cooler and damp weather that is expected to prevail through the remainder of the week. By the weekend, some sun will return.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Generally speaking, surface features will not have a vast impact on the region until late week. A weak cold front moving into a dry local air mass on Tuesday Night will do little more than stir up a few clouds. Though we don't notice it at first, this front will stall and fester in the Northern Gulf of Mexico until a piece of energy riding through the jet stream spawns a depression of lower pressure along the boundary on Wednesday Night. As this disturbance pulls eastward along the coast, forecast models are in good agreement that thickening clouds and showers will overspread the area on Thursday Night. Thereafter, there is good agreement that the showers will wrap up through Friday with high pressure pushing into Texas by Saturday, and cool, dry conditions in place for the weekend.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 

 


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Carry on, carry on http://www.wbrz.com/news/carry-on-carry-on/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/carry-on-carry-on/ Weather Mon, 19 Jan 2015 3:37:23 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Carry on, carry on

The pleasant January weather experienced over the weekend will continue into mid-week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Sun will rule the roost one again as many South Louisiana thermometers flirt with a high temperature near 70°. Overnight, lows will be close to average, in the low 40s, under mainly clear skies.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday will be mild again with highs nearing 70° although a few clouds may be spotted with a weak disturbance pushing a cold front into the area. Those clouds will hold temperatures up a bit overnight with lows in the middle and upper 40s. Behind the weak front, resulting temperatures on Wednesday will return to average. By the end of the week, a stronger system puts rain back on the menu with cloudy and chilly weather otherwise.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Monday. Subsidence will continue occurring with mainly clear skies and compressional warming keeping temperatures above average during the day. The clear skies at night though, will to allow a considerable drop off in temperatures, back to average in the lower 40s.A shortwave trough pushing through the south will guide another cold front into and through the region on Tuesday Night. As of now, it looks as though this front, like the last, will have little moisture to work with and will cross dry. By Thursday, a more significant wave in the mid-levels will spark showers and bring back the gloomy, chilly weather for the end of the week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Ideal 26.2 temps http://www.wbrz.com/news/ideal-26-2-temps/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/ideal-26-2-temps/ Weather Thu, 15 Jan 2015 8:09:03 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Ideal 26.2 temps

For the avid and even casual runner, two big weekends are afoot in Southeastern Louisiana. On back to back weekends, the state will play host to the Louisiana Marathon in Baton Rouge followed by the Rock 'n' Roll Marathon in New Orleans.

Like any outdoor sport or event, weather will be a focal point for organizers. Although, if you think sunshine and warm temperatures is what runners are hoping for, think again!

French researchers have found that thermometers in the chilly lower 40s produce the fastest times. This determination came by way of examining 1.8 million marathoner times over a 10-year period. Even faster runners, who generate more body heat, performed better in even cooler temperatures-the upper 30s!

Noted by Alex Hutchinson of Runner's World, fall and spring months seem to produce the fastest marathon times each year-when temperatures are often in that ideal range. Hutchinson explains weather is so important to run times, that in some cases, tougher and hillier courses produce better times than easier and flatter courses, if the temperatures are ideal.

Imagine combining a flat-track and the perfect temperature. It looks as though that is exactly what will occur for the Louisiana Marathon on Sunday Morning. With mostly sunny skies, we are targeting a starting time temperature of 41°. And while it is a long-way off by weather forecasting standards, indications are that a cold front will leave New Orleans thermometers in the middle to upper 30s next Sunday Morning.

If you would like more on the weekend weather and long-term forecast, click here for our weekly weather vlog.

If the French research team is on to something, perhaps we should expect some nice finishes on the flat 26.2-mile tracks through the Capital and Crescent Cities over the next two Sundays.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Here we go! http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-we-go-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-we-go-/ Weather Thu, 15 Jan 2015 6:31:51 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Here we go!

The sun is back, setting up a pleasant January weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After hanging onto primarily overcast skies all week long, the sun is shining bright and poised to do so right through the weekend. Your Friday will feature wall-to-wall blue sky with thermometers alas eclipsing 50°. Most locations will make it to the middle 50s. The overnight hours will be clear and chilly with a low just above freezing.

Looking Ahead: Over the weekend, a weak front will cross the region, but we likely won't notice much with this one. Saturday will feature a lot of sunshine with highs in the low 60s. The front will pass overnight with perhaps some high, thin clouds. Lows will keep near 40° as a result. Any lingering high clouds on Sunday will bust for sun in the afternoon and a high in the low 60s. By Tuesday, we'll warm into the upper 60s with no rain in sight until late Wednesday.

Take a look at your forecast for the Louisiana Marathon by clicking here. Plus, get much more detail and much more weather in our video forecasts by clicking here.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A surface high pressure system in North Texas and an exiting upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. have allowed Louisiana and Mississippi skies to drastically improve. Clear skies are expected through Saturday Morning. Another surface high will drop into the Midwest on Saturday and accompanying northerly winds will try to send another cold front through the region. This one however will run into a dry atmosphere and likely do little more than stir up a broken cirrus deck. Therefore, we'll maintain mainly clear skies through the weekend. This second high will move overhead onto Monday and then towards the Southeast Coast on Tuesday. At that time, winds will shift to the south and thermometers won't just get back to average, but highs will likely make it 5° or so above average with lows near normal readings. Forecast models are in fair agreement with the next storm system affecting the region on Thursday with another batch of rain.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Last dreary day http://www.wbrz.com/news/last-dreary-day/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/last-dreary-day/ Weather Thu, 15 Jan 2015 3:38:43 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Last dreary day

Scattered showers will pull through the region marking an end to a dreary stretch of days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Scattered showers are anticipated to dampen the region through mid-afternoon. No major rain totals will occur; rather the nuisance variety of showers with accompanying clouds once again holding high temperatures in the middle 40s. A rapid clear-off is expected through the evening and overnight hours. As a result, a quick drop-off in temperatures can be expected too, with most locations flirting with freezing by morning.

Looking Ahead: Beginning Friday, we'll come upon a nice, tranquil stretch of January weather. Sunshine will allow a return to the 50s on Friday. By Saturday, more sun will help many gauges into the 60s. Similar numbers will stack up into Tuesday with seasonably cool lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. While mainly sunny skies are expected, a weak front Sunday Morning may provide some passing high clouds.

Want more weather? Check out the goods in our weekly weather vlog: http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-january-15-2015/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A trough digging through the Southern United States will help to strengthen a surface trough parked in the Western Gulf. This system will trek eastward on Thursday spreading a bit of moisture and uplift into Southern Louisiana. The expected output is more clouds and a few showers. With most of the energy well to our south, it is possible that some locations north of the Interstates dodge showers entirely on Thursday; the going forecast is for about 80% of the region to pick up measurable rainfall. With this trough making a quick exit and a surface high building into the Midwest, a rapid clearing and drying of the atmosphere is in store thereafter. Friday through Monday, a series of surface highs will dive south through the plains sending reinforcing cold fronts through the local area. However, with no time for moisture recovery, little more than passing clouds is anticipated with these. With only short-lived periods of cold air advection, thermometers will recover to near average and wobble about those normal high and low values (62/41) through early next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Looping on the wrong track http://www.wbrz.com/news/looping-on-the-wrong-track/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/looping-on-the-wrong-track/ Weather Wed, 14 Jan 2015 3:37:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Looping on the wrong track

Clouds and a chill will continue to prevail through Thursday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: If you are craving some sunshine, just hang on another 48 hours! Like Tuesday, it will be overcast and temperatures will stay chilly with highs struggling for 50°. During the overnight hours a few showers will develop with lows hovering around 40°.

Looking Ahead: While Thursday will start with some passing showers-especially in southern locations, the end to dreary chilly weather will be afoot. By afternoon, some clearing may occur as showers exit stage right. Still, a cool day is expected with temperatures in the upper 40s. Overnight, skies will go all clear allowing a quick chill down to near freezing. Friday and Saturday are shaping up to be a pair of January gems with ample sunshine. Friday will get to the upper 50s and after a cool beginning; Saturday will run for 60°. We can expect to carry dry conditions through the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: With high pressure locked in to our north and a surface trough developing in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast will again see a cloud deck and moisture forced across the region. While the low levels saturate, mid-level clouds will lower through Wednesday eventually giving way to some spotty shower action overnight and into Thursday. Most forecast models show the bulk of any organized shower activity staying closer to coastal parishes, however, a shower is certainly feasible as far north as Southern Mississippi as indicated by modest uplift across the region. Much more pleasant weather will begin to take hold as a surface high pressure system beneath a zonal flow aloft will build into the region by Friday. Directly overhead, the high pressure will promote subsidence and all clear skies with continued cool temperatures. Heading into the weekend, the high will park near the Atlantic Coast allowing a bit of a southerly flow and thus, warmer temperatures. By Sunday, some clouds may begin to push in as well as moisture in the local atmospheric column increases.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Clouds aplenty http://www.wbrz.com/news/clouds-aplenty/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/clouds-aplenty/ Weather Tue, 13 Jan 2015 3:35:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Clouds aplenty

Despite a drier and cooler feel, clouds will linger for the next few days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: More clouds than sun can be expected today, with much cooler temperatures. While a peek or two of sun can't be ruled out-especially later in the day-clouds will hold thermometers in the low 50s. At night, a partly cloudy sky won't be enough to keep us out of the middle 30s.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday will be chilly again with some early sun giving way to increasing clouds. Another weak disturbance will cross the region late Wednesday into Thursday bringing a shot at showers during that time period. A bit of clearing may occur late Thursday, but highs remain cool and in the low 50s. Alas, we'll string together a couple of pleasant January days on Friday and Saturday with cool mornings in the 30s giving way to sun-filled afternoons near 60°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough moving through the region today will disturb the middle atmosphere enough to maintain at least a partial cloud deck over much of Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi-despite an overall lack of mid-level moisture. This drier atmosphere is the reason shower chances are low-end to non-existent with this disturbance. Yet another weak system will traverse the region Wednesday Night, and a bit of moisture return plus the added vorticity form an advancing shortwave may spark off a shower or two. By Thursday Afternoon, a broad area of surface high pressure will sink into the Southern United States keeping skies mostly clear and allowing a slow moderation in temperatures from below to above average Friday to Sunday. Late Sunday introduces the next slim chance for a shower.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Between damp and dry http://www.wbrz.com/news/between-damp-and-dry/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/between-damp-and-dry/ Weather Mon, 12 Jan 2015 3:57:22 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Between damp and dry

There will be a few showers to dodge this week, but nothing significant is expected.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Lingering showers will be possible early, but overall, a drying trend is expected for your Monday. The punch of cooler air with the most recent rain-maker is lagging a bit, and in its wake thermometers will stay above average this afternoon with many locations staying in the mid-60s. Clouds will persist though, which holds true for the overnight hours as well with temperatures falling off into the middle 40s.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool and mostly cloudy with perhaps a stray shower although we're going to keep the forecast area-wide coverage below 20%. Highs will be in the low 50s with lows in the mid-upper 30s. Sunshine will break out on Thursday Afternoon but temperature will remain chilly through the rest of the week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A surface trough is passing through the south bringing showers chances along the Gulf Coast. A slow moving system, while precipitation will diminish in the lack of lifting mechanisms, cloud cover and spotty showers will linger in the region through early Thursday. By this time, a stronger trough in the upper-levels will pull through the region helping to eject the moisture field eastward. After a few cooler days, milder temperatures will return for the weekend with rain again in the picture for Sunday.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Storm expected to make roads slick in Ohio Valley, Northeast http://www.wbrz.com/news/storm-expected-to-make-roads-slick-in-ohio-valley-northeast/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/storm-expected-to-make-roads-slick-in-ohio-valley-northeast/ Weather Mon, 12 Jan 2015 12:09:47 AM Hunter Robinson Storm expected to make roads slick in Ohio Valley, Northeast

NEW YORK CITY, NY - The work week is expected to get off to a slippery start as forecasters warn that a storm is bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow from the Ozarks to New England.

Poor driving conditions are expected through much of the day Monday as the storm moves northeastward from the mid-Mississippi Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for an area stretching from near St. Louis to southern New England.

Light freezing rain is forecast for Washington and Baltimore, while Philadelphia and New York are expected to see freezing rain, sleet and light snow. Boston could see periods of freezing rain and sleet.

Snowfall across the area, including the southern Great Lakes, northern Pennsylvania, New York and New England is expected to be 3 inches or less.


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Pat Shingleton: Wing Ice http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-wing-ice/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/pat-shingleton-wing-ice/ Weather Sun, 11 Jan 2015 3:04:54 PM Pat Shingleton Pat Shingleton: Wing Ice

Years ago, plane de-icing was randomly performed when conditions warranted and is now a regimented procedure. On this date in 1982, Air Florida Flight 90 crashed into the icy Potomac River, thirty seconds after takeoff from National Airport in Arlington, Virginia. The casualty count noted 78 deaths, including four who were in cars on the 14th Street Bridge. The National Transportation Safety Board determined the cause of the crash was pilot failure to abort the takeoff and for not activating anti-icing equipment. As noted in a previous column, ice on wings is dangerous because of additional weight and the loss of lift for the aircraft, causing drag on the aircraft's body. A wing can lose 30% of lift with a small accumulation of ice.


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