WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2015, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Mon, 27 Apr 2015 17:04:38 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Severe storms, flooding possible http://www.wbrz.com/news/severe-storms-flooding-possible/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/severe-storms-flooding-possible/ Weather Mon, 27 Apr 2015 5:20:07 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Severe storms, flooding possible

After a stormy Saturday, Sunday revealed drier if not steamy conditions. However, we'll deal with another pair of unsettled days before a really pleasant stretch.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has included the Baton Rouge area in an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms today. This means storms that develop will be capable of producing damaging wind, heavy rain and even a tornado. A *TORNADO WATCH* is in effect until 1 pm for East Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, East Feliciana, Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana Parishes along with Wilkinson County. A *FLASH FLOOD WATCH* is up until Tuesday Afternoon for the entire region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop this morning and quickly turn strong. Thermometers won't make it past the upper 70s with the off and on storms. Activity will continue in waves right into the overnight hours. After the initial severe storms threat, concerns will shift towards heavy rain. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s.

Like last week, PLEASE HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD, TIMELY WEATHER INFORMATION SHOULD BULLETINS BE POSTED. Remember-a WATCH means conditions are favorable for a weather hazard and you should have a plan in place. A WARNING means that weather hazard is imminent and you should take action!

RESOURCES:
Twitter: @2StormView
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Online: wbrz.com/weather
Mobile: WBRZ WX

Looking Ahead: Expect a welcome break beyond Tuesday. Wednesday into the weekend we'll experience mainly clear skies with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough of lower pressure will be moving from the Mountain West through the Great Plains over the next two days. This upper low will help to spawn a surface low over Texas which will eject eastward across the Gulf Coast between Monday and Tuesday. The resulting weather will be stormy with a few rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Once again, ingredients appear favorable for some storms to turn severe. A fast moving jet stream aloft will create that "vacuum" effect needed to ventilate growing thunderstorms. Along with plenty of low level moisture, storms will juice up and be able to sustain an efficient rain-making process for longer periods of time. A general 1-3" is possible by Tuesday Night. With the above ingredients, instability and shear (changing wind direction and speed giving storms the ability to rotate) will be sufficient enough such that a damaging wind and tornado threat may develop. As this trough finally pushes northeast of the region on Wednesday, Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi will enjoy a nice dry out with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s and considerably lower humidity-an increasing rarity in Late April/Early May.

--Josh

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Keep plans, but keep updated http://www.wbrz.com/news/keep-plans-but-keep-updated/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/keep-plans-but-keep-updated/ Weather Fri, 24 Apr 2015 4:46:04 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Keep plans, but keep updated

Yesterday, showers and storms brought rain to about 50% of the WBRZ viewing area as expected. Fortunately, all of them stayed beneath severe limits. For Friday, evening dinners and even LSU Baseball will have to be mindful of showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Most of Friday will be spent dry with more clouds than sun, humid conditions and an afternoon high in the mid 80s. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop. Indications are that a lot of the activity may stay just north of Baton Rouge, but it will be close. Therefore, outdoor plans should keep an eye to the radar as we get later in the day. Again, it is possible that storms turn strong with gusty wind, hail and an isolated tornado. Overnight, we continue shower and storms chances, possibly strong, with lows near 70°.

Looking Ahead: The first half of Saturday will contend with one more round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. By the afternoon, we can anticipate some clearing and the returning sun should bolster temperatures into the mid 80s. The second half of the weekend will be dry and even warmer. We're forecasting a high in the upper 80s and some locations could post their first 90° reading of the year. The pattern will turn unsettled again Monday and Tuesday before a mid-week cool down.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A decaying cold front is positioned along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis is positioned over the region with mid-level impulses in a southwesterly flow continuing to drive rounds of convection. For Friday, most of that mid-level energy looks to stay northwest of the local area. This should result in a mainly dry day. However, with a high moisture content and daytime warmth along with a fairly strong upper jet stream, any thunderstorms that develop, while isolated, could be strong or severe. It appears more likely that showers and thunderstorms develop along outflow boundaries from preexisting convection north of the area and pass through during the overnight hours into Early Saturday. By this time, the trough will exit northeastward and a drier period will become reestablished for the remainder of the weekend. With no feature crossing the region to promote cooling-Sunday could be the warmest of 2015 so far with highs approaching 90°. It will stay humid as well.

--Josh

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Scattered storms, some strong http://www.wbrz.com/news/scattered-storms-some-strong/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/scattered-storms-some-strong/ Weather Thu, 23 Apr 2015 4:59:40 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Scattered storms, some strong

Over the next three days we'll be dodging thunderstorms, any of which could be strong.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday's weather will gradually become more unsettled into the middle portion of the day. Some early sun is expected to fuel a few storms. While rain coverage won't be widespread, those who do pick up a storm could also note gusty wind and hail. Highs will again get into the mid 80s. The sleeping hours will be quieter with mostly cloudy skies and lows near 70°.

Looking Ahead: Friday Evening brings perhaps our greatest threat for some severe weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could produce hail, gusty wind and even an isolated tornado. Again, we're not expected area-wide rain or a washout, but any storms that fire will be worth watching. Action will continue into Saturday before fading with some sun anticipated by late afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 80s. The second half of the weekend is looking dry, but could perhaps be our warmest day so far in 2015. Many thermometers will flirt with 90°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: While an upper ridge remains parked to the south, an upper trough is to the north and a surface cold front is attempting to squirm southward into the region. Within the upper flow, a few disturbances will also meander through the region with the weakening front providing a couple of foci for shower and thunderstorm development. Especially with some clearing early Thursday, the atmosphere will be sufficiently unstable for a few showers and storms to fire and quickly turn strong. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and while the freezing level is a little high to support hail, a low to mid-level dry pocket suggests gusty winds may occur and even some directional shear could support a brief, weak tornado. On Friday, the speed and directional shear increase while the other parameters remain the same. This means the possibility for an isolated tornado is a little greater. Each day will have its challenges to overcome. If we see enough clearing after Thursday Morning clouds, by Thursday Afternoon, a decaying cold front and upper wave riding down the eastern flank of a ridge should be the forcing mechanisms needed to fuel storms. By Friday, the front will be weaker but leftover outflow boundaries and daytime lake/sea breezes may be all that is needed to push the unstable air. In addition, we'll continue to see a few disturbances sliding through the upper levels. As an upper trough ejects northeastward from the Plain to New England, one last push carries a storm threat into Saturday Morning as well. That being said, it is no surprise that the Storm Prediction Center has a "slight risk" for our area each day. To summarize, our forecast is for strong to severe storms on Thursday Afternoon and scattered strong to severe storms Friday Afternoon into Saturday. Each day, conditions are favorable for damaging wind gusts, an isolated tornado and small hail.

--Josh

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Transitional day http://www.wbrz.com/news/transitional-day/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/transitional-day/ Weather Wed, 22 Apr 2015 4:10:55 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Transitional day

After a welcome break, our weather turns back to "April showers" and humidity.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will again feature plenty of sunshine early but we'll notice a little uptick in moisture and with this, a few more afternoon clouds. After high temperatures top out around 85°, a late shower or storm will be possible, but it appears as through our daylight hours will be dry just about everywhere. Overnight, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, muggier air and a low in the mid to upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: Thursday will begin with a few showers and thunderstorms, but those will break off for some midday sun. The heating will be sufficient to get thermometers into the 80s again, but also to spawn a few more showers and storms. Any of these could be stronger with gusty wind and hail. It is a similar story for Friday with highs in the 80s and only scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. On Saturday, shower chances will begin to diminish and Sunday is looking dry but could end up being our warmest day so far in 2015-the first 90° high perhaps.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level ridge which has kept the region dry and almost cloud free over the last few days will begin to break down into Wednesday Afternoon. As this ridge loses influence, moistening upper levels and a trough to the west will begin to spin some mid-level energy into the region. While the daytime hours are expected to be dry, and this notion is confirmed by RPM and HRRR model forecasts, around dusk we start to see evidence of a couple showers and storms arriving from a preexisting storm complex in the Midwest. While we may hear some thunder overnight, the nocturnal arrival of storms should keep them sub-severe. These could linger into Thursday Morning but will then break for a bit of sun. The idea is that this should allow enough daytime heating for a few storms to once again develop on Thursday Afternoon. Showers and storms would need a trigger of course and outflow boundaries from the overnight activity and/or lake and sea breezes should be sufficient. As moderate instability will be in place, any of these storms could be strong with gusty wind and hail. The Storm Prediction Center has given our area a "slight risk" for severe storms as a result. This risk persists into Friday as the upper flow becomes a bit more active and southwesterly. While the best forcing mechanisms will be to our north, subtle features will be able to work with the afternoon warmth to spark a couple of storms. We'll keep a close watch for you and have updates if any strong storms threaten.

--Josh

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Here comes the sun http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-comes-the-sun-71931/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/here-comes-the-sun-71931/ Weather Mon, 20 Apr 2015 3:56:16 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Here comes the sun

An area of high pressure moves in along with some dry air, and that finally gives a break from the rain! The dry air will lower our humidity a bit as well. Overall, expect a pleasant day with highs struggling to reach 80 and mostly sunny skies. Overnight, a few clouds may move in, but low temperatures will reach 57 degrees thanks to the drier air.

Similar pattern into Tuesday and even Wednesday, but rain does return by then. We're not expecting anywhere near the washout we experienced last week. We're only expecting more of your garden variety showers.

Another disturbance comes through Thursday and Friday where we'll have a little bit better chance of rain coverage, but things should clear out by the weekend. Enjoy the sun. I'm sure you'll say that it's alright.

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~RG3

 


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Nastier before nicer http://www.wbrz.com/news/nastier-before-nicer/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/nastier-before-nicer/ Weather Fri, 17 Apr 2015 4:00:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Nastier before nicer

Tumultuous weather continues as strong thunderstorms may accompany heavy rain over the next two days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday won't be as gloomy as Thursday. After a few light showers during the morning hours, some sunshine will be offered up into the afternoon hours. This will help thermometers eclipse 80°. In this very unstable pattern, the sun could also help to spark a few storms-any of which could be strong. Not all will see rain today, but that will change this weekend. Entering Saturday, temperatures will be in the upper 60s with clouds thickening and thunderstorms developing.

Looking Ahead: This weekend will mark the long awaited end of a 7+ day stretch of rain and thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has again extended the FLASH FLOOD WATCH now through Saturday. Rain and thunderstorms are again expected on Saturday. Not only could these storms produce downpours, but could turn strong with hail and gusty wind possible as well. Temperatures will be kept in the mid to upper 70s. Outdoor activities will be difficult on Saturday. Our futurecast model has been very effective in timing out rain this week. It currently shows a round of rain pushing through Saturday Morning around dawn, followed by a brief break with more thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. As you head to any number of events, check in with us via the WBRZ WX app. or on Twitter @2StormView. The pattern will then begin to ease on Sunday as a weak front pushes through the region. Skies will offer some sunshine but we can still expect to dodge a few showers and storms with highs near 80°. Drier air and mainly clear skies will alas return Monday through Wednesday with highs in the low 80s and lows near 60°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The atmosphere remains moist and highly unstable. An upper trough in Texas, waves of energy swirling overhead and a large region of ascending air will all help to activate showers and thunderstorms over the next two days. Friday's setup favors a more isolated to scattered nature of storm coverage as some sun will peak out thanks to a touch of mid-level drying.  Along with heavy rain, the moisture loaded clouds and cooler air aloft rushing to the surface could lead to some cloud bursts that cause damaging wind gusts. Weaker upper level winds will keep the storms as slow-movers meaning flash flooding could again be a problem. By Saturday, increasing upper winds will give storms a bit better ability to scoot, but also rotate and thus an isolated tornado or two could come on top of the aforementioned threats. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has included our area in a marinal risk for severe thunderstorms both days, and this seems appropriate given that some of the severe weather threat parameters are quite a bit higher than what we've seen this week. The upper level trough responsible for all of this mess will finally begin to exit the region on Sunday pulling a surface cold front through as well. One last pop of showers and storms will be possible before a drying trend sets up Monday to Wednesday.

--Josh

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No rest for the weary http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rest-for-the-weary/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rest-for-the-weary/ Weather Thu, 16 Apr 2015 3:59:40 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus No rest for the weary

Showers and storms will increase in number and coverage once again as we move into the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Look for another one where rain and storms overcome the region. More clouds and less sun will hold highs in the mid 70s. By mid-morning precipitation will begin to work in from south to north. Unlike yesterday, where storms were scattered and primarily southeast of Baton Rouge, all of the area will get in on some action today. As we remain in a very soupy air mass, any storms will be capable of dropping heavy rain at rates of 1-2" per hour. With that being noted, the National Weather Service has extended the FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday. With the region already well saturated due to 4-8" of rain since Friday, it will not take much to cause problems. By Evening, showers will diminish in coverage but may not go away entirely this overnight. It will stay muggy too with a low in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: Two days of very unsettled weather stand between Southeast Louisiana and a drying trend. On Friday, another wave of energy will bring mostly cloudy skies, rain and thunderstorms through the region with a repeat on Saturday. As of now, Saturday looks like the wetter of the two days. As has been the case over the last few days, some of the storms could produce heavy rain. With the gray skies, thermometers won't move much from morning lows in the upper 60s to highs in the upper 70s. By Sunday, while a few showers could linger, it appears as though we'll begin a drying trend for the region into next week.

Watch our weekly weather video for in-depth analysis of the upcoming unsettled weather: http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-rain-hail-a-tornado-

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The next upper trough will be digging into the four corners region on Thursday. The additional energy provided by this trough when compared to Wednesday will mean higher coverage of rain and storms. The atmosphere remains saturated and any storms could produce downpours. On Friday, as the trough begins moving over Texas, we'll once again watch upper disturbances spin through our region churning up rounds of rain and storms. Look for 2-4 rounds between Thursday and Saturday with an inch plus possible in each round. Flash flooding will certainly be a concern, especially for areas that have already had some issues. Forecast models are hinting at a weak front moving through the region mid-weekend, beginning a slow drying and calming trend for the weather. Behind this latest trough and front, we expect partly to mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

--Josh

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'Trunkated' responsibilities http://www.wbrz.com/news/trunkated-responsibilities/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trunkated-responsibilities/ Weather Wed, 15 Apr 2015 7:31:51 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus 'Trunkated' responsibilities

While our recent forecasts of rainfall, both the timing and intensity, have panned out nicely, a new study suggests that a certain mammalian mammoth could ease our task of long-term precipitation prediction.

Recent research has revealed that elephants have a "radar-like" ability to detect rainstorms up to 150 miles away.

What is it about the elephant anatomy that affords the thunderous creatures this ability? Their ears!

Distant thunderstorms produce very low frequency sounds, undetectable to the human ear. Elephants however, communicate with one another at low frequencies very similar to those created by storms. Scientists have not yet determined whether the elephants are hearing falling rain or rumbles of thunder, but have identified definite reactions by elephants to storms.

Popular Science explains that scientists stumbled upon this revelation while observing migration patterns of elephant herds in Namibia. After noticing sudden changes in speed and direction over the course of a seven-year study, scientists discovered the most frequent shifts occurring during the rainy season.

Elephants need the rain for drinking water. So when they sense storms, sometimes days and hundreds of miles away, they alter course to meet up with the precipitation.

While it is unlikely that elephants replace meteorologists anytime soon-there is some benefit to uncovering the massive mammals' weather forecasting forte.

Experts believe that if they can predict where the animals are going, they can save them from poachers that kill up to 30,000 elephants per year.

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The "nice" day http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-nice-day/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-nice-day/ Weather Wed, 15 Apr 2015 4:00:16 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus The

If there is one day this week that will feature more sun than rain, Wednesday is the bet.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Far fewer showers and thunderstorms are expected today compared to yesterday. Mainly fueled by daytime warmth, scattered storms will pop this afternoon and as has been the case for days, any storms could drop heavy rain. A flash flood watch remains in effect through this evening. So, while we can't call for completely dry skies, much more sun will be collected this afternoon giving some locations a chance to dry out a bit. With added sunshine, high temperatures will reach into the lower 80s. Overnight will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: The stormy pattern will continue as we maneuver through the rest of the work week. Another storm system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday with widespread action on Friday into Saturday. As has been the case, check in with the forecast daily as we work to time out the periods of rain. As far as temperatures go-no major adjustments. Highs will be near 80° with lows near 70°. There are alas some signs that the pattern will break by the second half of the weekend with more significant periods of blue sky and sunshine available.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Taking a close look at what has been causing the unsettled pattern to persist we must point to an upper level trough that has been stalled over Central Texas. Waves of vorticity looping around the upper low have kicked up several rounds of rain and thunderstorms. With that in mind, we'll point out that the trough is lifting northeastward today and farther from the region. What's more, forecast models are not showing any significant "waves" in the upper-level air flow. Therefore, it could be reasoned that of all days this week, Wednesday could see the least amount of rain coverage with fewer "triggers" in place. In between systems, we may well gather a solid period of partial sunshine as well-with an opportunity to warm into the 80s. Looking beyond-both the GFS and ECMWF agree that another upper trough will dig into the Four Corners regions and Central Texas Thursday into Saturday. As the deep southwesterly flow and associated moisture are maintained, we once again will watch for rounds of rain and storms to wheel through the region. By Sunday, while models differ on timing somewhat, there is evidence that the upper trough will be ejected northeastward pulling a weak front through the area. After one last punch of rain, and possibly stronger storms, a touch of drier air will filter in allowing calmer weather for Sunday and Monday.

--Josh

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Persistent wet pattern http://www.wbrz.com/news/persistent-wet-pattern/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/persistent-wet-pattern/ Weather Tue, 14 Apr 2015 4:01:05 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Persistent wet pattern

Rounds of thunderstorms will continue, heavy at times, through the rest of the week. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect until at least 7pm Tuesday for an additional 1-3" of rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue today. Thunderstorms have been vigorous even during the morning hours and intensity will continue to ramp up through the day. Storms will be capable of dumping torrential downpours leaving behind a quick inch or two where they persist. Unlike Monday, it does not appear as though there will be any significant breaks in the cloud deck and not much sun, if any, is expected. Highs will be kept to the mid 70s as a result. Overnight will be quieter-mostly cloudy and muggy with lows near 70°.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday and Thursday will be similar as daytime heating and upper-level disturbances enhance the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Like Saturday through Tuesday, the atmosphere will remain juiced and any storms could be heavy rain makers. With thinner clouds early and perhaps some pockets of sunshine, thermometers will still get close to or above the average high of 79° in this steamy air mass. Meanwhile, lows will be in the upper 60s with generally lesser shower coverage during the nights. By Friday, a cold front may trudge through the region, once again bringing wider coverage in showers and storms.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Forecast models are very consistent in showing an upper level trough parked over Texas for the next three days while areas of vorticity rotate through the region. These "upper-level waves" will continue to trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Low and mid-level profiles show a consistently moist atmosphere with relative humidity remaining at or above 75%. Along with a fairly steady omega field, I expect there to be enough uplift each day to maintain mostly cloudy skies. In addition, with the added kick from the upper waves, daily shower and storm chances will stay up through Friday. Often times, these disturbances will optimize rain making capability when tapping into daytime heating which is why mainly daytime storms are the call. At this time, I'm carrying 90% coverage in rain for Tuesday with 60% coverage through Friday. Keep in mind, those percentages; PoPs indicate your chance of picking up measurable rain in the 24-hour period. Like the previous several days, it is worth reiterating that I don't foresee any daylong washouts at this point-rather many "periods" of rain and thunder. The GFS wants to bring a finishing cold front through the area on Friday, essentially drying the region out in time for the weekend. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the GEM stack another upper low in Texas and repeat the unsettled pattern through next weekend. I am leaning towards the agreement of the European and Canadian models and trending the forecast unsettled.

--Josh

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Heavy rain early today http://www.wbrz.com/news/heavy-rain-early-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heavy-rain-early-today/ Weather Mon, 13 Apr 2015 4:17:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Heavy rain early today

Your week will start off with a burst of heavy rain as much of the region is under a Flash Flood Watch.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The next wave of rain will arrive early today. A line of showers and thunderstorms moving northeastward at 35mph will move through Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi between 8am and 1pm. Torrential downpours will be a possibility and some locations could easily pick up an inch or two of rain. Secondarily, gusty winds and frequent lightning will also be possible with stronger storms. By late afternoon, showers will exit the area providing a brief respite and maybe even a break or two of sunshine. Highs will top out in the mid 70s. Overnight, skies will stay mostly cloudy and a spotty shower isn't impossible while lows stay in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect until Tuesday Evening for parishes along and south of I-12. 2-4" of rain is possible through that timeframe and by week's end, area-wide 5-7" of rain could fall. On Tuesday, the next disturbance will push through the region with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Again, these will be capable of leaving behind a quick inch or two. The pattern remains unsettled for Wednesday as daytime warmth helps to kick out scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thermometers won't change much due to clouds and rain. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 60s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: As advertised last week, the timing of upper level disturbances is the key to forecasting each batch of rain over the next several days. A vigorous wave moving out of Texas and into South Louisiana is the latest culprit to bring heavy rain and storms to the region. An impressive line of rain and storms has been marching northeastward from the Big Bend of Texas since last night. This line will move through the area on Monday Morning with downpours, gusty wind and frequent lightning. The atmosphere is ripe, moisture content is at a seasonal maximum and thus storm cells will be efficient rain producers. A nearly stationary upper trough parked over Northwestern Texas will remain in place for the next few days with more waves of energy pin wheeling through the Gulf South in deep southwesterly flow. The next is pegged to cross the area on Tuesday Afternoon and this should bring another bout of rain and storms. Again, this will be the case on Wednesday. The pattern appears to "evolve" by week's end with the batches of rain becoming fewer and farther between. In the meantime, stay in touch with the forecast and stay dry!

--Josh

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Slight risk for severe weather today http://www.wbrz.com/news/slight-risk-for-severe-weather-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/slight-risk-for-severe-weather-today/ Weather Fri, 10 Apr 2015 3:59:46 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Slight risk for severe weather today

A slight risk for severe weather exists today. As a cold front pushes through the area, it will trigger the moist and warm atmosphere to spin up a few thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side. The main threat are some gusty winds and large hail. An isolated along the Gulf Coast can't be completely ruled out as well.

Expect a few showers before noon, but the strongest storms will come after the noon hour. The best chance for strong storms will be between noon and 6pm.

Today's high will reach 80, and overnight we'll reach the 60's. Don't expect a big drop in temperatures with this front, but lows in the 60's will continue through the weekend. The rain should be out of here in time for baseball at the box, keeping mostly cloudy skies overnight.

The cold front pushes back north as a warm front over the weekend, bringing us more showers. Stay tuned to social media and WBRZ for the latest concerning the severe weather.

Josh breaks down the severe threat in this vlog as well.

 

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On Twitter: @RG3wbrz   En Español: @RG3wbrzES

 

~RG3

 

 


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Colorado State annual hurricane season forecast issued http://www.wbrz.com/news/colorado-state-annual-hurricane-season-forecast-issued/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/colorado-state-annual-hurricane-season-forecast-issued/ Weather Thu, 9 Apr 2015 12:27:11 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Colorado State annual hurricane season forecast issued

According to Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University, the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to present well below average tropical activity.

Their outlook calls for 7 named storms and 3 hurricanes with one being considered major (category 3 strength or higher). These numbers fall below the annual averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This is "quietest" forecast they've ever issued. On average, we see 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, with 2 of those being major.

Klotzbach and Gray cited the presence of an El Niño, which increases upper level winds. Strong winds in the upper-levels of the atmosphere can act as a guillotine to any tropical system. El Niño is fairly weak now, but they claim that it is forecast to strengthen by autumn.

Another factor that may prove to suppress tropical activity is the fact that sea surface temperatures are much cooler than normal in the tropical Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures help fuel a generating storm. Klotzback went as far to say that it's the "opposite" of what you'd expect for an active season.

30 years of data and past hurricane seasons are used in formulating this forecast.

The sleepy 1992 season woke up dramatically with Andrew, the first named storm of the year which ravaged South Florida as well as parts of Louisiana. An inactive year can still produce that "one" storm. Folks should prepare for every season, regardless of the forecast.

We're currently extending our record of not having a major hurricane landfall since Wilma in 2005; almost a 10 year period! Klotzbach noted that we've seen a 40% drop in major hurricane landfalls in the last 50 years compared to the previous 50 years.

Klotzbach and Gray claim that they've accurately been able to predict an above or below season 13 out of 16 times. The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be released in May.

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz    En Espanol: @RG3wbrzES

 

~RG3

 


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Rain returns to the forecast http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-returns-to-the-forecast/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-returns-to-the-forecast/ Weather Thu, 9 Apr 2015 3:57:07 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Rain returns to the forecast

We're under a slight risk for severe weather on Friday. We're expecting a few strong storms potentially tomorrow afternoon.

Today's forecast calls for partly sunny skies, but a few isolated thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. It will remain humid today and temperatures will reach about 86 degrees for the high temperature. We'll stay muggy as we head into the evening, and a few sprinkles are possible overnight as the low drops only to about 71 degrees; 16 degrees above average!

That extra heat and moisture will help fuel our thunderstorm chances tomorrow as a cold front attempts to push through the area. This time of year it is harder for fronts to push all the way through, so don't expect a big drop in temperatures. This front will likely stall along the coast over the weekend, and spin up some more showers for our forecast. The heaviest storms again coming in on Friday during the afternoon hours.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz, En Español: @RG3wbrzES

 

~RG3


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Eachus: Mastering a soggy track http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-mastering-a-soggy-track/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-mastering-a-soggy-track/ Weather Wed, 8 Apr 2015 8:24:57 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Eachus: Mastering a soggy track

April is here. For me, that means two things: spring storms have begun and The Masters is here. This weekend, the two will overlap.

Before we get to the upcoming forecast in Augusta and what players the expected weather will favor, it is worth noting that the Masters golf tournament is actually very well scheduled. The event is held in a month that climatologically speaking is one of the city's driest. At 2.98", April in the Garden City averages out to be drier than every other month except October and November.

Is it possible that tournament founders, Clifford Roberts and Bobby Jones had some meteorological intuition? Unlikely, as Jones at one time had asked the United States Golf Association to hold their U.S. Open at Augusta National. He was turned down when the USGA said "hot Georgia summers" would make playing conditions too difficult. In addition, the first "Augusta National Invitational" was held in March of 1934 before transitioning to April and being titled, "The Masters."

The move out of March was wise as three of the first six Masters tournaments were marred by rain delays. In 1936, some golfers had to play a full two rounds on Monday, including eventual winner, Horton Smith. In 1938, players couldn't take the course until Saturday, playing two rounds on Sunday and finishing on Monday. The final two rounds of the 1939 edition were both played on Sunday.

Full days of play at The Masters have also been washed out in 1961 and 1973. During the 1983 edition, heavy rain and flooding in the Southeastern United States prompted the postponement of Friday's round. Seve Ballesteros won his second title in a Monday finish that year. A few tour legends noted that Saturday's course conditions as the worst they had ever seen at Augusta. No entire rounds have been lost since then.

While delays are not imminent, this year, the 98-man field should expect a wetter go of it. The honorary starters will tee off in dry but foggy conditions and the Thursday round will only have to be spared from a pop-up afternoon shower or storm. Friday and Saturday are the dicey looking days as a cold front moving into the Southeastern United will spread rain from the Atlantic Coast to the Gulf of Mexico. Up to an inch is possible in Augusta with locally higher amounts under heavier thunderstorms. Current timing has much of the rainfall occurring overnight Friday into Saturday-meaning the threat to play could be lessened but players will be left with a soggy track on "moving day." By Sunday, the hope is that sun will return, further accentuating Augusta National's breathtaking beauty on championship Sunday.

The course's greatest defense mechanism is greens that roll like glass. Add water and those 5 footers won't knock as many knees-players will sink more putts and score better. On the contrary, the players scoring best will be those who wield the longest drives as a softer course means less roll in the fairways. Five players inside the world's top 15 rankings are also among the top 10 in driving distance on their respective tours: Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and J.B. Holmes.

Yes, this meteorologist uses weather to predict golf. But I digress, April is here. The Masters is here.

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For a pair http://www.wbrz.com/news/for-a-pair/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/for-a-pair/ Weather Wed, 8 Apr 2015 3:47:09 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus For a pair

Wednesday will be the second straight with unseasonably warm temperatures, high humidity and little in the way of shower activity.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will be partly sunny and humid with high temperatures returning to the upper 80s. Beyond the lakes and coast, again it will be very difficult to churn up any showers-but rain chances aren't zero. Overnight, clouds and patchy fog will be back with low temperatures near 70°

Looking Ahead: Thursday is shaping up to be a bit more active by afternoon and evening. After another warm and humid beginning, morning sun and a high in the mid 80s, clouds will be bubbling up in the afternoon. With an upper-level disturbance crossing the area, we may see a few showers and storms spark off late. Overnight, a cold front will slip south towards the Baton Rouge area and bring with it showers and thunderstorms by mid-morning. Some showers and storms could produce heavy rain on Friday. As this one isn't expected to fully clear the region, we'll stay muggy with highs in the 80s as periods of rain and thunder continuing into the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Still in between surface and upper level systems, Wednesday won't be too exciting save for higher than average temperatures. On Thursday, a trough digging through the Great Plains will drive a surface cold front southeast towards our region. While this front won't make it too close by then, an upper level disturbance ahead of the front may tap into the daytime heat and aid in the development of some afternoon showers and storms. The greatest possibility for precipitation will be north and west of Baton Rouge. On Friday, we'll settle into a very active pattern slated to last through the weekend. A cold front will stall over South Louisiana. Moisture still in place, this front will be the focal point for numerous showers and thunderstorms. The action will be enhanced as upper level disturbances ride over the boundary. With these boosters, we can expect times of greater coverage and heavier rain along with breaks in between. Timing each impulse of rain will be difficult and best saved for a day-to-day basis when it comes to scheduling outdoor plans. As of now, this setup needs watching for a heavy rain/flash flooding potential. The front will pull north on Sunday but be quickly followed by another upper trough and surface front for Monday. For this part of the forecast, the dynamics are better positioned for severe weather and thus this too is something to monitor. Needless to say, you'll want to check back on the forecast often as we approach the weekend.

--Josh

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Temps up, humidity up http://www.wbrz.com/news/temps-up-humidity-up/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/temps-up-humidity-up/ Weather Tue, 7 Apr 2015 3:59:23 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Temps up, humidity up

The next two days will feature much more sun than the last few but will also be much warmer and more humid.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday and Wednesday should shape up to be nearly identical. Look for a pair of partly sunny afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As far as pop-up showers go-they appear unlikely but aren't impossible for coastal locations where lake and sea breezes could generate something. The nights will be still and sticky with just a few clouds, patchy fog and lows in the upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: By Thursday, the pattern will begin to change as a cold front moves into the region. At this time, it looks as though the first half of Thursday will warm up quickly with highs running for the mid 80s again. Meanwhile, humidity will remain in place. By afternoon, there may be enough energy in the region to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Overnight into Friday, clouds will lower and thicken and with the arrival of our slow-moving front, Friday looks unsettled with numerous showers and thunderstorms. The pattern looks no friendlier heading into the weekend. We'll keep you posted as forecast details become clearer.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A warm front now well to the north, the Gulf of Mexico is "open for business" and deep southerly flow is transporting plenty of warm and moist air into the region. However, weak upper-level ridging will likely be just enough to cap off the atmosphere and keep a lid on shower and storm development over the next few days. Still, with the unstable surface air plus lake and sea breezes, coastal showers aren't completely impossible on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, the pattern will begin to shift as a cold front associated with a strong upper level storm system pulls into the region. Late in the afternoon, a few showers and storms may develop well ahead of the front. Overall through, Friday appears to be the most threatening day of the week. All will depend on the position of the front. Should the front stay farther north, severe weather may be in the cards. Should the front slip south sooner, a heavy rain event could be more likely. As we've reached the warm season, each successive front has more and more difficulty reaching "the pond" and therefore we enter scenarios with stalled fronts and deep southerly flow that are favorable for training storms and flooding events. In most cases, we need an upper level piece of energy to enhance these events and they are difficult to detect and pinpoint until 24 hours out. The spring is one of our more unpredictable times of the year, especially many days in advance-stay in touch with the forecast as it gets closer.

--Josh

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A new week of spring http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-new-week-of-spring/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-new-week-of-spring/ Weather Mon, 6 Apr 2015 4:17:38 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus A new week of spring

We'll get a healthy dose of spring weather this week with warmth, humidity, showers and storms all included.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday, like Easter Sunday will include some shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours. Skies will offer a lot of clouds otherwise. High temperatures will make it to near 80° by early afternoon before showers ease thermometers back into the 70s. Overnight, showers will come to an end but clouds and fog will linger. Expect the first of many muggy mornings this week as Tuesday wake up temperatures will be in the mid 60s.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday through Thursday will be warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Afternoon skies will be partly sunny and while a pop-up shower or storm can't be eliminated from the forecast, especially Thursday, no washouts are foreseen. Beyond that, we'll need to keep an eye on the Friday to Sunday timeframe as several washouts could be in the cards.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A warm front will be lifting north through the region on Monday. As this front serves as a lifting mechanism for a moist air mass, an advancing mid-level wave out of Texas will add another trigger giving us confidence in a modest spread of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Once the front clears north, the Gulf will be open as they say and moisture will stream in over the next several days. Expect steamy afternoons with highs in the mid to upper 80s through Wednesday. A lack of triggers will likely keep shower and thunderstorms very isolated to non-existent with the best chances hanging on to coastal areas where lake and sea breezes generate more activity. By late Thursday, Friday and Saturday a cold front will slowly settle into the region and stall. This nearly stationary boundary with a number of mid-level disturbances waltzing by overhead will be the impetus for widespread showers and thunderstorms. On top of that, we'll have had a week to really saturate the region with plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Scenarios like this tend to favor times of training thunderstorms and thus we'll need to watch this period for some potentially heavy rain over a number of days. Stay tuned!

--Josh

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Good Friday, good forecast? http://www.wbrz.com/news/good-friday-good-forecast-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/good-friday-good-forecast-/ Weather Fri, 3 Apr 2015 3:49:01 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Good Friday, good forecast?

The weather pattern will flip for the holiday weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Throughout your Good Friday, we'll notice a buildup of clouds ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly winds of 10-15mph will accompany a warm and humid afternoon with highs in the mid 80s. The front will arrive in the evening hours. Any ongoing showers and storms that move into our daytime warmth could turn strong but the expectation is that a broken line of action will arrive after dark, lessening the strong storm threat. Overnight, a few showers and rumbles of thunder may continue as temperatures drop back into the 50s.

Looking Ahead: Aside from a lingering shower on Saturday Morning, your Easter Weekend weather isn't shaping up too bad. Saturday Afternoon, some sun will return along with cooler and less humid conditions. Highs will be in the low 70s. Overnight will be cool and quiet with lows in the low 50s. On Sunday, thermometers will squeak up a bit into the mid 70s beneath a partly sunny sky. A stray shower can't be ruled out and would most likely occur north of Baton Rouge. Next week, we'll return to the 80s with humidity and pop-up afternoon showers.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A cold front will move into the region this evening. To our north, increased moisture levels coupled with ample daytime heating will allow for a line of showers and storms to potentially turn strong as the front pushes through. While our region is included in the SPC "marginal risk" area, it seems as though it will be a race against sunlight for the line. As dusk emerges, instability will lessen and an ongoing line will quickly weaken. Should the front speed up, it will certainly be possible for a few evening storms to produce gusty wind and hail-but given the morning position of the front across Oklahoma, this scenario is unlikely. That being said, the expectation for Baton Rouge and points to the south is isolated to scattered showers and storms that may linger into very early Saturday. The front will lock up on the coast, potentially holding some stubborn clouds in the region through part of Saturday. A surface high pressure system setting up in Missouri will bring cooler, drier northeasterly winds for Saturday Afternoon. With clearing skies late, we'll be offered highs in the low 70s. By Sunday, the high will set up in North Carolina returning southeasterly winds and a promoting a warm-up each day into mid-week. As moisture advances into the area off of the Gulf, isolated pop-up showers will be possible each afternoon for the foreseeable future. We'll be keeping an eye on the next cold front for late next week which is going to move into an unseasonably warm and humid air mass with the potential for some fireworks.

--Josh

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Heading to the holiday http://www.wbrz.com/news/heading-to-the-holiday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heading-to-the-holiday/ Weather Thu, 2 Apr 2015 4:00:59 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Heading to the holiday

The weather pattern along the Gulf Coast will begin to change as we move into Easter Weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The second day of the new month will feature morning clouds with just a spotty shower or two. By later afternoon, blue sky will become more prominent and thermometers will return to the low 80s. Nighttime will bring passing clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Looking Ahead: Friday will be the warmest day of the week as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Humidity levels will be elevated somewhat and thermometers will reach for the mid to possibly upper 80s. A partly sunny beginning to the day will give way to increasing clouds late. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible during the late afternoon and evening hours. While area-wide rain is not expected, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center carries a risk for severe storms as far south as the Mississippi/Louisiana border. With plenty of warmth, some humidity and a front-the broken line of showers and storms that do approach the region could bring gusty winds and potentially some hail. Given the post-dusk arrival, most of the stronger activity is expected to stay north of the Capital City. Behind the front, showers will end on Saturday Morning with sunshine, lower humidity and more seasonable daytime temperatures in the 70s on tap for the rest of Easter Weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak shortwave in the mid-levels will produce early clouds and a spotty shower or two before being absorbed by the larger-scale flow. As the wave exits, we'll await the arrival of a cold front on Friday. Southerly winds are expected to increase ahead of this front adding warmth and some moisture to the atmosphere. Looking at the mid to upper 80s, Friday will be the warmest day of the week. By Friday Evening a cold front sagging southward will try to bring a few showers and storms into the region. The SPC highlights a large area for the slight risk of severe storms that reaches as far south as the Florida Parishes. It is spring-despite limited moisture, ample warmth and the forcing of a front certainly makes this seem plausible. However, most of the activity likely wouldn't develop until late evening or nighttime as instability is decreasing. Since we're still not looking for widespread rain, the call will be for isolated to scattered storms along a broken line, some of which could be strong early. Showers will diminish as the front crosses on Saturday Morning followed by two partly sunny and seasonable afternoons with lower humidity and highs in the low 70s.

--Josh

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