WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2014, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Mon, 22 Dec 2014 22:12:28 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 This is winter? http://www.wbrz.com/news/this-is-winter-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/this-is-winter-/ Weather Mon, 22 Dec 2014 4:21:50 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus This is winter?

The first full day of winter may not feel so, as thermometers eclipse 70° with a touch of humidity in the air. Then, a strong storm threat warrants our attention for Tuesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Monday won't necessarily be an active weather day but the atmosphere will be undergoing a transformation. Mainly cloudy skies will persist as southwesterly winds shove thermometers well above average and into the lower 70s. With the surface wind flow passing over the Gulf of Mexico, expect some humidity to be present as well. Tonight, a cold front will approach the area. Skies will remain overcast with the chance for showers and thunderstorms increasing towards morning. Nighttime temperatures will be closer to the average high this time of year versus the average low-in the low 60s.

Looking Ahead: On Tuesday, a cold front and low pressure system will move through the area with showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. At this time, the primary threats appear to be heavy rainfall and some hail. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are not impossible but are secondary threats. If you are doing some holiday travel, plan your drive accordingly so not to drive in heavy rain or dangerous thunderstorms. Should you be flying, check with your air carrier to be sure flights haven't been delayed on account of the storms. Also, with wind a possibility, make sure those outdoor holiday decorations are secured. After the nasty weather, temperatures will rapidly drop into Wednesday with dry and seasonably cool weather expected for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Christmas Eve highs will be in the 50s with lows in the mid 30s into Christmas Day. Christmas temperatures will be near 60° thanks to plenty of sun.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A developing storm system will move out of the Rocky Mountain region today and into the Lower Midwest by tonight. There are several factors at play which will enhance the possibility for stronger showers and thunderstorms-especially late tonight and Tuesday. A deepening upper level trough will dig into the Gulf South. The local area will be on the "active side" of the trough with very strong jet stream winds rounding the trough. These strong winds serve as an open window for rising air which ventilates thunderstorms allowing them to intensify. In the lower and mid-levels, fully saturated air with a good deal of uplift will allow for clouds to grow well into the atmosphere. At the same time, due to the saturated air mass, the typical dry pocket needed for intense downburst will not be present, which could somewhat diminish the damaging wind threat. Lift is impressive enough that with very cold air aloft, some hail will be possible with any deep thunderstorms. Fortunately, directional wind shear isn't overly impressive, meaning that while not impossible, the rotating storm, or tornado threat, this go around is a bit lower. Much higher than normal December dew points will make a lot of surface based moisture available and with a second low pressure system carrying Gulf moisture into the area along the advancing cold front, heavy downpours will also be a possibility with the showers and storms. Should activity rapidly develop during the morning hours, this will somewhat inhibit the severe chances for the afternoon hours. A quieter morning will lend to higher chancres for nasty afternoon storms. A dynamic storm system, with many intricate and potentially limiting factors, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center doesn't want to introduce more than a slight risk for severe storms. Needless to say, Tuesday is a day in which it would be a good idea to monitor the forecast. We'll be here for you.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Much (needed) rain http://www.wbrz.com/news/much-needed-rain/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/much-needed-rain/ Weather Fri, 19 Dec 2014 4:21:21 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Much (needed) rain

As long as rain doesn't fall too heavily in a short period of time, a beneficial soaking is expected today.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect periods of rain and thunder throughout your Friday. With a warm front to the south and ongoing rain, thermometers will really struggle to leave the 50s in Baton Rouge and points to the north. South of the interstates, some lower 60s will be possible. Generally, 1-2" of rain will fall before tapering to scattered light showers during the evening hours. With a stray shower lingering tonight, clouds will stop temperatures from falling much lower than the upper 40s.

Looking Ahead: By sunrise on Saturday, most of the shower activity will have exited eastward. It appears as though some clouds may hold behind the rain-maker, so at best, only a partly sunny afternoon is anticipated which will help to keep temperatures in the low 60s. The second half of the final weekend before Christmas is shaping up to be mostly dry and seasonably cool. If you have last minute shopping or decorating to complete, the daytime weather will not interfere. By evening, a light shower or sprinkle may develop. Monday will begin chilly, in the low 40s, and end mild with highs in the middle 60s under partly sunny skies. The next rain threat comes on Tuesday.

And don't forget, if you'd like running updates on the forecast for Christmas Day, our team has you covered right here--> http://www.wbrz.com/news/looking-ahead-christmas-day/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A surface low pressure system is navigating the Central Gulf Coast with a large swath of associated precipitation. With a warm front draped across the Gulf South as well, there is a focal point for uplift and this is aiding in the development of ongoing rain and thunder. The atmospheric moisture content is high for this time of year and healthy rainfall totals are anticipated as a result. With some locations already receiving an inch or so, an additional 1-2" may occur through the remainder of the day with rain falling heavily at times. As the surface low pressure system passes Louisiana to the east on Friday Night, rain showers will begin diminishing from west to east. Cold air advection behind the storm system isn't terribly impressive and thermometers aren't expected to plunge too far below average. In fact, a stubborn cloud deck due to lingering mid-level moisture and a lagging trough may actually hold overnight lows up and daytime highs down through the weekend. The next cold front is pegged for Tuesday and this one will drive cooler than average temperatures through the area by Christmas Eve.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Rain storm on the way http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-storm-on-the-way/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-storm-on-the-way/ Weather Thu, 18 Dec 2014 4:12:59 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Rain storm on the way

Much needed rainfall is on the way as we wrap up the work week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A developing storm system in South Texas means we will notice increasing cloud cover and perhaps a few showers as we head into the afternoon. High temperatures will be warmer than Wednesday, but still somewhat limited by clouds, in the middle 60s. Overnight, the chance for showers will continue to increase while overcast skies and east-southeasterly winds hold thermometers to an almost muggy 54°.

Find a detailed video update regarding the incoming rain storm by clicking here.

Looking Ahead: Friday is shaping up to be an active day. Cloudy skies are anticipated with areas of rain and thunder becoming more prevalent after sunrise. Temperatures will only rise into the middle 60s. While clouds and rain are a certainty, the threat for stronger thunderstorms remains difficult to project. This will depend on the exact track of the culprit storm system and is a detail that will be much clearer on Friday Morning. Overall, 1-2" of rain appears possible for most locations-a beneficial soaking for a region considered to be in moderate drought. By Saturday, rain showers will be ending with skies clearing some in the afternoon. A cool and mostly sunny Sunday is expected with highs near 60°.

And don't forget, if you'd like running updates on the forecast for Christmas Day, our team has you covered right here--> http://www.wbrz.com/news/looking-ahead-christmas-day/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The main challenge for this forecast period is identifying the potential for stronger thunderstorms with a low pressure system crossing the area on Friday Evening. As a surface low deepens in South Texas, upper-level energy spewed eastward in addition to increasing mid-level moisture will work to enhance a cloud deck over the region through Thursday Night. High resolution forecast models such as the HRRR are showing an area of showers developing Thursday Afternoon with subsequent batches triggered by bits of upper level energy overnight. A surface low pressure system and warm front will then eject northeastward towards the Louisiana Gulf Coast on Friday. The accompanying warm front will straddle the coast. On this track, most of the warmer and less stable air would be relegated to the coast and this would keep the chance for severe storms, and even thunder, at bay. Should the surface low creep north, allowing the warm front to juice Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi a bit more than expected, stronger storms will need to be considered. For now, a saturated atmospheric column with good lift (omega values) displayed on forecast models indicate that a needed soaking of rain appears likely. The storm system and associated cold fronts will sweep to the east by Saturday Morning, rapidly ending rainfall and allowing skies to clear from west to east through the afternoon. Drier weather and slightly cooler than average temperatures will prevail for the rest of the weekend and into Monday. The next front is set for Tuesday, but current guidance pushes it through before Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Sunny, cool, changing http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunny-cool-changing/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunny-cool-changing/ Weather Wed, 17 Dec 2014 4:20:09 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sunny, cool, changing

Another quiet day is expected before overnight clouds signal our next storm system.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Enjoy another day with plenty of blue sky and sunshine. We may begin to gather a few high clouds as the day progresses. Afternoon highs will fall a bit shy of Tuesday's with many staying in the low 60s. Tonight, some clouds will continue to build in from the west and with an east-southeast breeze, thermometers should be up about 10° from this morning-in the mid-40s.

Looking Ahead: Thursday will be a transitional one with skies clouding up and perhaps a spotty shower-especially in our northern and western locations. Temperatures should go a touch milder however, as southeasterly winds promote warming through the 60s. Overnight, rain shower chances will increase with an almost muggy feel in the 50s. Friday will be somewhere between dreary and a washout, though a touch muggy with highs in the upper 60s. By the weekend, more seasonably air will arrive with highs near 60°, lows near 40° and clearing skies.

And don't forget, if you'd like running updates on the forecast for Christmas Day, our team has you covered right here--> http://www.wbrz.com/news/looking-ahead-christmas-day/

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A wave of energy in the mid-levels will organize into our next rain-maker by the weekend. For Wednesday, a high pressure system in the northern tier and upper-level ridging will continue to exert enough influence over the region to allow for subsidence and therefore mostly clear skies. On Thursday, the aforementioned disturbance will be tracking eastward through the South and surface cyclogenesis will occur over Texas. Pulling in mid-level moisture while the shortwave impulse strengthens, increasing cloud cover is anticipated on Thursday with a shower or two even possible in western locations. By Friday, this storm system will advance a surface low pressure system and warm front into South Louisiana making for an overcast and showery day. A clap or two of thunder may also happen in locations closer to the coast where slightly more instability is available. This is even more likely in coastal locations and the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is offering a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms at this time. We'll watch this closely and continue to provide updates as needed. By Saturday, this system will trek east of the region and cooler air will filter in behind.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Christmas & beyond http://www.wbrz.com/news/christmas-and-beyond/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/christmas-and-beyond/ Weather Tue, 16 Dec 2014 10:38:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Christmas & beyond

Last week, the WBRZ Weather Team examined historical, statistical probabilities for a white Christmas. As you probably imagined, even prior to reading, chances for Southeast Louisiana aren't very good. You can review those stats by clicking here.

We can now see that Christmas Eve and Christmas Day should shape up to be mainly clear. The fun part of the forecast extends into the long-term. Will it be getting cold again? If yes, for how long?

The American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) have little skill in "nailing" a forecast beyond one week out, but can provide some insight as to what trends we can expect down the line.

For a frame of reference, we'll begin with the almanac data for December 25. That date includes an average high of 63° with a record of 85° set in 1903. For low temperatures, the average is 42° with a record of 11° in 1983. That same year also shattered a record low-high temperature for the date at 25°! National Weather Service records for Baton Rouge dating back to 1893 indicate measured precipitation on Christmas Day 31% of the time.

As far as the model forecasts go, both are conveying surface temperatures below average on Christmas Eve and slightly above average on Christmas Day. In addition, both models time out another cold front for early Christmas week. Precipitation looks fairly scarce with this boundary and current information pushes it completely through the region prior to the morning of December 24th.

Forecast models also continue to portray lower than average atmospheric heights as we round out 2014 and head into 2015. Understanding that warm air expands while cool air contracts, we realize that a lower or shallower atmosphere is indicative of colder air aloft-which often translates down to the surface. If you side with the American model, expect colder temperatures well into January. If it is the European model you choose, there will be a short-lived cool spell followed by a return to above average temperatures.

Want more? Meteorologist Josh Eachus discusses these trends in our weekly weather vlog: http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-december-18-2014/

As you know, forecast modeling beyond one week is essentially "weather witchcraft," but it does provide some fun talking points regarding the possible long-term patterns.

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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Back to December http://www.wbrz.com/news/back-to-december/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/back-to-december/ Weather Tue, 16 Dec 2014 4:16:58 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Back to December

The late fall 70s will exit today with a return to more seasonable readings.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Any early cloud cover lingering in eastern locations will be gone by mid-morning. Though all sunny skies are expected, a shift to northwesterly breezes will mean an afternoon high about 15° cooler than Monday. Most locations will top out in the low-mid 60s. Overnight, a clear sky and the continued advancement of cool, dry land-based air will mean quite a chilly night is ahead-lows in the upper 30s.

Looking Ahead: The middle portion of the week will be relatively calm with a sunny and seasonably cool afternoon expected on Wednesday. On Thursday, thermometers will turn a touch milder with increasing cloud cover. By week's end, the next storm system will begin to spread rain showers into the region. We will be watching this system for potentially modest rainfall, but forecast details are not very clear just yet. Cooler and drier air will once again push in this final weekend before Christmas.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A cold front has cleared the region allowing a cooler and drier wind from the north to modify the local air mass. Clear skies and light northerly winds will promote an ideal night for cooling and as a result, low temperatures into Wednesday will be at their coldest for the week-many in the upper 30s. A broad area of high pressure to the north will set up in the Upper Midwest and help to maintain generally northerly winds for the next 24-36 hours. As a new wave organizes in the Southwest, increasing vorticity and mid-level moisture will help to increase cloud cover for the region on Thursday. This wave will churn up a surface low pressure system in South Texas which will arrive in South Louisiana by Friday. There is a currently a large disparity in precipitation totals between the two key forecast models. In blending the two, we're currently anticipating a pretty dreary and damp go on Friday. Drier and cooler weather will once again contribute to a seasonable final weekend before Christmas. Details on the holiday itself will be coming into focus on over the next day or two. Stay tuned!

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Icky mid-December http://www.wbrz.com/news/icky-mid-december/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/icky-mid-december/ Weather Mon, 15 Dec 2014 3:45:24 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Icky mid-December

We're smack in the middle of December and temperatures are reaching the 70's again, with a muggy feel and mostly cloudy skies.

There's rain in the forecast too. We're calling for a 50% chance of showers today so you'll need your umbrella, but don't expect a washout. This is all in anticipation of a cold front but not a very strong cold front. It will only knock us down to average December temperatures; we've been above average for the past week.

Expect a high of 74 today, cooling down to 53 overnight, then you'll feel the change tomorrow as highs stay in the 60s, and lows get back into the 40s.

The average temperatures will not stay for long though as we expect a quick upturn in temperatures by the end of the week with another cold front and chance of showers by Friday.

It's not the most dramatic of roller coaster rides, but just think of it as the kiddie coaster.

 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz En español: @RG3wbrzES

 

~RG3

 


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Sun and mild temps to return http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-and-mild-temps-to-return/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-and-mild-temps-to-return/ Weather Fri, 12 Dec 2014 4:11:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sun and mild temps to return

Each afternoon through Sunday will feature increased sunshine with high temperatures steadily climbing back to the 70s.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your week wraps up with another blue/gray mix in the skies and perhaps even a stray rain drop or two. Temperatures will be a touch warmer than yesterday. Most locations will top out in the upper 60s. Patches of clouds will continue to squirm through the region overnight, again placing thermometers in the low 40s.

Looking Ahead: A very quiet and mild December weekend is ahead. Abundant sunshine is anticipated each afternoon with highs near 70°. Overnight lows will be seasonably cool with temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A couple of waves traversing the upper-level jet stream directly overhead will continue to bring periodic batches of clouds through the area. As the dipped jet slides east this weekend, ridging will lead to warming and drying of the atmosphere. The surface translation is less cloud cover and warmer temperatures. By Monday, an aggressive wave from the Pacific will move into Texas and churn up a surface low pressure system and attendant cold front. This surface complex will advance eastward into the local area by Monday Night returning the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. While forecast models handle timing of this event well, there are some minor discrepancies as to the strength of the system. The American model (GFS) shows less rain and less instability. The more robust European solution (ECMWF) brings slightly greater rainfall possibilities and enough instability for perhaps a thunderstorm or two. These appear to be minor details in the forecast that can be ironed out over the weekend. Another seasonable air mass returns to the region for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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White Christmas? http://www.wbrz.com/news/white-christmas-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/white-christmas-/ Weather Thu, 11 Dec 2014 9:21:13 AM Meteorologists Josh Eachus & Robert Gauthreaux White Christmas?

Perhaps you've been dreaming of that new tablet, sugar plums or maybe just a magical bit of sneaux on Christmas Day.

While we can't provide you new technology or boiled candies, we certainly can shed a little light on hopes for a white Christmas.

If you aren't one for gambling, there are a few notable cities that are guaranteed a white Christmas according to the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma. Marquette, Mich., International Falls, Minn., and Stampede Pass, Wash., are all given a 100% probability of having at least 1" of snow on the ground Christmas Day.

Are those locations too north and too cold? You could roll the dice on Chicago, Ill., Denver, Colo., or Salt Lake City, Utah. An inch of existing accumulation is about a 50/50 proposition for those spots.

However, home is home, and nothing beats home for the holidays. Many Christmas Days have gone by in South Louisiana with sunshine and temperatures in the 70s. All hope is not lost though! Twice in history, Baton Rouge and New Orleans have recorded at least a trace of snow on Christmas Day-2004 and 1953. Is it unlikely? Yes. Is it improbable? Probably. Is it out of the question? Clearly, no! Appropriately insert Lloyd Christmas memes here-"so you're telling me there's a chance!"

We have taken a look at long-term forecast models, and remember that these are very unreliable beyond seven days, but early trends suggest highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for the week of Christmas. We'll keep you posted!

If you'd like more Christmas Day snow probabilities, visit this link to the National Weather Service's data page.

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus & Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @Josh_ Eachus & @RG3wbrz


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Batch-o-clouds http://www.wbrz.com/news/batch-o-clouds/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/batch-o-clouds/ Weather Thu, 11 Dec 2014 3:49:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Batch-o-clouds

Some patches of clouds will pass through the region over the next 36 hours followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With a stubborn cloud deck lingering today, thermometers will be slow to climb out of the 40s. By afternoon, any returning sunshine should allow a recovery into the lower 60s for most. Clearer skies this overnight will mean thermometers dip low once again with most near 40°.

Looking Ahead: Thermometers will be rising and clouds will be breaking as we head into the weekend. Expect partly sunny skies on Friday followed by mostly clear skies right through the weekend. Highs will be in the low 70s with lows in the middle 40s. The next chance for rain will come with a cold front on Monday Afternoon.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: As one disturbance in the upper level flow clears our region, another will swing through Friday Afternoon into Saturday. As with the previous, this disturbance will kick up some clouds, but that is all the consequence we will notice. As this second impulse exits the region, a ridge will build overhead for the weekend. This means that the column of air centered over our region will warm and expand. Congruently, surface temperatures can be expected to warm as well. In fact, with an east-southeast wind flow at ground level due to a surface high pressure parked in the Tennessee Valley, thermometers will likely eclipse 70° both afternoons. Then, forecast models are in fairly good agreement that the next wave will cross the Deep South on Monday. An attendant cold front will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through Southern Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana Monday Evening. Seasonable temperatures will follow into the middle of next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Reinforcements http://www.wbrz.com/news/reinforcements/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/reinforcements/ Weather Wed, 10 Dec 2014 3:55:39 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Reinforcements

The drier, cooler inland air mass has tapped into another northerly breeze to keep thermometers below average for the rest of the work week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A noticeably cooler day is ahead. Wednesday high temperatures will likely fail to reach 60° with most locations peaking in the upper 50s. A few more clouds may be present as well-especially later. An increase in cloud cover is expected overnight which will actually prevent the bottom from falling out on thermometers. Most locations will stop in the middle to upper 30s.

Looking Ahead: More clouds than sun should carry through the Thursday to Friday time period. As a result, afternoon temperatures will only just make it into the low 60s while overnight lows won't fall as much, hanging around 40°. Mostly clear skies will then return for the weekend with highs going back above average to near 70°.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: We now will monitor the behavior of a few shortwave impulses sliding through the overall longwave wind flow in the upper levels. The track and extent of these impulses will help determine how much cloud coverage we see over the next few days. Additionally, a temperature inversion setting up with some moisture return into the mid-levels lends to the likelihood of a stubborn altostratus cloud deck developing by Thursday and possibly lasting through part of Friday. Regardless, no precipitation is expected through week's end. By the weekend a high pressure system parked near Tennessee will open up skies and allow east southeasterly winds to bring a bit warmer and milder air into the region. The next storm system will develop in Texas and bring a cold front with showers and thunderstorms into the area on Monday.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Trending cooler http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-cooler/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-cooler/ Weather Tue, 9 Dec 2014 3:58:02 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trending cooler

A weak, reinforcing cold front will slip past the area tonight, bringing slightly cooler temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Like Monday, your Tuesday will feature abundant sunshine with a high temperature in the middle 60s. A weak front will cross the region tonight, offering little more than a passing cloud, if that. Behind this front, yet another cool down will occur with thermometers slipping into the middle 30s overnight.

Looking Ahead: Wednesday will likely be the coolest day of the week as highs fail to escape the upper 50s, thanks to the reinforcing cold front passing by and some additional clouds. The final two mornings of the work week will begin in the upper 30s to near 40° with afternoon highs warming into the lower 60s. We will also find a few batches of cloud cover rolling over the area.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An additional shot of cooler air will arrive in the region tonight. A weak frontal boundary will cross the region but with little moisture in the column, not much in the way of cloud development is expected and forecast models seem to highlight this trend well. By Wednesday, they do begin to offer up some clouds and this makes sense given the pattern taking shape. Though the atmosphere will remain reasonably dry, a series of upper-level disturbances will trek through the upper level pattern and into the Deep South. These will stir things up enough to generate a few mid to upper level patches of clouds. We'll have to keep an eye on any cloud decks for little other reason than the fact that any limitations on sun in the day or clear skies at night could alter the temperature forecast by a couple of degrees. After a brief warming trend over the weekend, the next storm system to offer rain will likely come on Monday.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Weather caught the calendar http://www.wbrz.com/news/weather-caught-the-calendar/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/weather-caught-the-calendar/ Weather Mon, 8 Dec 2014 3:49:30 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Weather caught the calendar

Welcome to the first full week of December... well, the first full week of normal December weather.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: The beginning of your week will be sunny and seasonable with highs in the middle 60s. Northerly breezes will only blow around 5 mph. The overnight hours will be clear and chilly with lows in the lower 40s or possibly upper 30s.

Looking Ahead: See above! Clear skies, seasonably cool afternoons and chilly nights are expected all week long. Highs will be near 60° with lows in the middle 30s. It will be fine outdoor weather to find the perfect Christmas tree or finalize that exterior illumination!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level disturbance has pulled another cold front through the area. This one was even tougher to identify than that which passed over the weekend with a few showers. Because the air was so dry, only some passing clouds and a stiffening of the northerly breezes were noted. As a result of the latest front, cooler air will envelop the region through much of the upcoming week. Another reinforcing cold front will cross the area dry on Tuesday Night. Very few surface weather features will be at play otherwise, leaving much more sunshine than the previous week. Focusing on the cold, it is possible that we find some mornings in the 30s Tuesday - Friday, with northern locations flirting with the freezing mark.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.


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The dodgy stuff http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-dodgy-stuff/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-dodgy-stuff/ Weather Fri, 5 Dec 2014 4:26:12 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III The dodgy stuff

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: It will be a dreary end to the week with fog, clouds and a few showers. The incoming storm system is not expected to produce a lot of rainfall, nor will it be a widespread precipitation event. As far as temperatures go, more muggy 70s are anticipated. The overnight hours will bring more of the same with clouds, fog and spotty showers. Temperatures will bottom out around 60°.

Looking Ahead: The weekend weather will be bisected by the days themselves. Expect Saturday to be a repeat of Saturday with clouds, spotty showers and highs in the low to mid 70s. Conditions will begin to improve on Saturday Night as a front pushes through the area. By Sunday, sunshine will be much more prevalent, humidity will break and thermometers will top out in the upper 60s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A generally westerly flow in the upper levels will be interrupted by a shortwave passing from Texas to Alabama between Friday and Saturday. This wave will enhance a surface low pressure system in Texas and a cold front will kick up south through the state. This entire complex will slowly advance east into the weekend. While there is moisture available, the storm itself is weak, slow moving and won't generate much uplift. Therefore clouds are expected to increase and thicken but rain showers will be far less numerous. By Sunday, the front will sink southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Though it may hang up close to the coast, this will allow skies to partially clear with drier and slightly cooler northerly winds pushing into the region. Partly sunny skies with highs in the 60s are anticipated into next week with a few more minor disturbances potentially swinging through.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

~RG3

 


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Rain showers to wrap the week http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-showers-to-wrap-the-week/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-showers-to-wrap-the-week/ Weather Thu, 4 Dec 2014 3:59:34 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Rain showers to wrap the week

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As the next storm system organizes to our northwest, clouds will begin stacking up around the region. A spotty sprinkle is even possible. Still, we can expect a few peeks of blue sky and sunshine today as high top out in the middle 70s. A deck of clouds and some fog will again pester the region overnight with a light shower not impossible. Lows will be in the upper 50s.

Looking Ahead: The next weather-maker arrives in the region on Friday. Increasing clouds are expected with a high temperature in the middle 70s. Rain showers we be possible by afternoon and carried into the overnight hours as thermometers keep to the upper 50s and low 60s-yes, a touch muggy. Showers, clouds and some fog will linger for much of Saturday before drier weather takes over for the second half of the weekend.

Remember to check out our 2015 Winter Weather Prediction! Meteorologist Josh Eachus examines our chances for cold and snow based on the summer that was. You can read that story by clicking here!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Though not completely, forecast models are coming into better agreement over the precipitation output heading into this weekend. The GFS model maintains a much drier solution with a weaker wave and subsequently weaker surface frontal boundary crossing the area. The ECMWF and GEM models continue to indicate a more pronounced shortwave and vorticity maxima at 500mb. With these stronger features, in turn, a more organized surface cold front is shown with appreciably better chances for rain showers Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon. Of note, the GFS has recently begun trending cooler with temperatures behind this system into early next week. The ECMWF has portrayed cooler temperatures all along. This lends a little more credibility to the European solution as far as the weekend shower activity goes. Thus, for now, I'm projecting scattered showers Friday Afternoon into Saturday with mild air retreating on Sunday and average to slightly below average temperatures returning into early next week. Confidence is growing in the possibility for a brief cool down next week as most models also pick up on a deepening trough in the Eastern United States. With a high pressure system to our north creating easterly surface winds-our air will be sourced from a cooler region which is expected to keep thermometers in check. Looking long-term-mild air should return by the end of next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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The ring http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-ring/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/the-ring/ Weather Wed, 3 Dec 2014 9:04:30 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus The ring

Over the last month, many WBRZ viewers have emailed and tweeted pictures of an unusual looking ring around the sun or moon. Is this an optical illusion? Or, is it some outer-worldly phenomenon?

Actually, it's just weather.

To meteorologists, these circles of light around the sun or moon are called halos. Halos are the first sign of increasing moisture in an otherwise clear sky. Millions of tiny ice crystals, floating upwards of 20,000 feet into the atmosphere, reflect and refract light in a fashion that causes the human eye to spot this glowing ring.

EarthSky describes halos seen around the sun or moon as uniquely personal. "Everyone sees their own particular halo, made by their own particular ice crystals, which are different from the ice crystals making the halo of the person standing next to you."

A rare sight yes, but in fact, halos are one of the oldest forecasting tools in the book.

Observing a halo means high, thin cirrus clouds are advancing into the local area. Often, an approaching storm will change skies first way up high and later down low near the surface. Thus, incoming cirrus clouds may well mean the next storm system isn't far behind.

So the next time you spot a sun or moon ring, check out the latest forecast from the WBRZ Weather Team. Chances are, they'll mention a storm system on its way to the Gulf Coast!

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Mild again http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-again/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/mild-again/ Weather Wed, 3 Dec 2014 4:10:16 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Mild again

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will unveil sunshine early with high clouds on the build through the day. Highs will once again be climbing into the lower 70s. During the overnight hours, you can expect more of what has been the norm of late-patchy fog late with lows in the middle 50s.

Looking Ahead: Thursday will once again bring partly sunny skies with mild high temperatures in the middle 70s. With overnight fog again a possibility into Friday, clouds will then tend to increase through the day with a few rain showers possible by the evening.

If you would like more on the big local weather stories and the extended forecast, see our weekly weather vlog --> http://www.wbrz.com/videos/weekly-weather-vlog-december-2-2014/!

Remember to check out our 2015 Winter Weather Prediction! Meteorologist Josh Eachus examines our chances for cold and snow based on the summer that was. You can read that story by clicking here!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A zonal (west to east, no troughs or ridges) upper level flow and thus a tranquil weather pattern will persist into Friday. By week's end, the two main computer forecast models are showing some disagreement in what happens next. The American (GFS) model has been consistent in showing a weak wave sliding through the mid-levels and generating a surface frontal boundary to our north. In this solution, a few showers would be possible Friday and Saturday, with continued mild conditions beyond. The more aggressive European (ECMWF) model is showing a slightly more vigorous wave of energy with a farther reaching front and more extensive shower coverage for Friday and Saturday. Most notably, this solution also hints at cooler surface temperatures building into the region for early next week. With both models digging a deeper trough into the Eastern U.S. by Tuesday-I am blending the two model solutions and showing a gradual cool down to near average temperatures by the middle of next week.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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Pinch me, we're in December http://www.wbrz.com/news/pinch-me-we-re-in-december/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/pinch-me-we-re-in-december/ Weather Tue, 2 Dec 2014 3:30:17 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Pinch me, we're in December

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Once again we can expect a partly sunny sky. Rain shower chances should fall to almost nil except in coastal locations. With a weakening and dissipating cold front strolling through the region, temperatures will go a touch lower than Monday, but remain above average for December, in the lower 70s. Overnight, it will be partly cloudy with some fog by morning and lows in the low 50s.

Looking Ahead: More of the same is ahead for Wednesday and Thursday. While sky conditions and temperatures won't change on Friday, we could potentially grab a shower or two.

Remember to check out our 2015 Winter Weather Prediction! Meteorologist Josh Eachus examines our chances for cold and snow based on the summer that was. You can read that story by clicking here!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: The peaks and valleys of the November jet stream across the United States have leveled off into an unremarkable zonal flow. This means outbursts of cold air are trapped close to Canada and major storm systems are shunted north. In fact, this week only one shortwave, or disturbance in the upper levels, will track trough the jet stream potentially bringing another small chance for spotty showers Thursday into Saturday. Reiterating the repetitive weather expected in a zonal pattern, skies will generally remain partly sunny with highs in the middle 70s and lows in the middle 50s.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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November climatological review http://www.wbrz.com/news/november-climatological-review/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/november-climatological-review/ Weather Mon, 1 Dec 2014 2:28:45 PM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III November climatological review

With a warm entry into December 2014, we also left November on an abnormally warm note; 15 degrees above normal to be exact.

November 30th recorded a high of 81°, over a month after the last 80+ reading in October. It didn't quite break the record though of 84°. The first week of December looks to keep the above normal temperatures in the forecast.

Don't let the heat fool you. Even with the warm twist at the end, November 2014 was the fifth coldest since 1930. Taking a look at the average November temperature over the years at the Baton Rouge airport, this year was very close to past years with an average temperature of 54.6°. We likely lost a few positions due to November 30's extreme high temperature; all because of one day! Out of the top five, 1976 handedly beats the rest.

We saw the first freeze of the later part of this year in November, which is normal. In total, we observed five days reach the freezing mark this year in November, tying last years. With what we remember about last winter, is this a precursor to how cold this winter will be? It's hard to say, likely not, but this is still fairly significant considering that the last time we reached at least five freezing days in November was back in 1991. In 1991, we reached that mark 9 times and we eventually saw a trace of snow later that winter.

In the middle of the month, we saw a peculiar jump, then drop in low temperatures worth noting. We observed one night with a low of 39, followed by a low of 58, then by a low of 42.

We held a rain surplus for a while due to the strong rains earlier in the year. We briefly dipped below normal as we entered the longest dry spell of the year; 21 days. We then saw two weekend waves of rain which brought us back to a surplus. We are slowly losing that surplus though as rainfall has been fairly scarce since September.

November also brought a few threats of severe weather along with several tornado reports.

As winter officially begins on December 21st, it's only going to get colder.


On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

 

~RG3

 


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Warm December days http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-december-days/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-december-days/ Weather Mon, 1 Dec 2014 3:59:25 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warm December days

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Look for another unseasonably warm day as high temperatures again approach 80°. Skies will be partly sunny; through there will be the possibility of a spotty shower late in the day and into the overnight hours. Regardless, thermometers will stay in the middle 50s with some patchy fog too.

Looking Ahead: Very repetitive and non-December-like weather will continue this week. Days will be partly sunny with highs in the 70s and nights will be mild and mostly clear with patchy fog and lows in the 50s.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Rather quiet and unseasonably warm weather will persist through this upcoming week. An upper level trough guiding a cold front into the Eastern United States will bottom out well north of our region. With little upper level support, a dying upper level wind flow and far less cool air advancement, at the surface this front will likely stall and weaken just north of our region. Due to the presence of a front, a shower may be squeezed out in one spot or another, but any action will be light and isolated. Meanwhile, an established southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico will continue to allow much warmer than average temperatures through the week. The only other notable impact of this southerly flow will be the possibility of some fog development during the nighttime hours as warmer, moister air rides inland. Only minor disturbances in the upper levels will dictate the possibility for cloud development and a spotty shower into next weekend.

--Josh

You can get forecasts from Meteorologist Josh Eachus weekdays on 2une-In from 5-7am and News 2 at Noon from 12-1pm. Additionally, you can get the fastest and latest forecasts and weather news by checking in with wbrz.com/weather, connecting with Josh on Google+ and following him on Twitter.

 


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