WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2016, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Fri, 6 May 2016 22:05:48 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 "May" we have another http://www.wbrz.com/news/may-we-have-another/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/may-we-have-another/ Weather Fri, 6 May 2016 5:44:13 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus

Near normal temperatures will mark a nice, tranquil May weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will bring more sunshine with a high temperature in the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the north at 5-10mph. Dew points remaining below 60 degrees will equate to a comfortable feel—no humidity and none expected until next week. It will be a pleasant evening to take in “Baseball at the Box” with a first pitch temperature in the low 70s. You might consider some long sleeves as temperatures drop into the 60s by game’s end. The overnight low will bottom out in the low 50s.

Up Next: Outdoor plans for the upcoming weekend are in great shape. For Saturday and Sunday, expect afternoon sunshine with highs making it to the mid 80s. Sunday will be the warmer of the two days, only by a degree or two. Additionally, there may be a few clouds speckling the skies by afternoon. The forecast for early next week looks persistent. With some returning humidity, highs will be in the mid 80s with lows near 70 degrees. Afternoons may offer a pop-up shower or storm but partly sunny skies are anticipated otherwise.


Share with us how you are enjoying the outdoors so we can showcase them on the air! Feel free to tweet your “nice” weather photos to @WBRZweather or email weather@wbrz.com   


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The upper level trough parked over the Southeastern United States that has dictated a quiet and cool weather pattern for much of the week is beginning to push away. However, a high pressure system at the surface will build in through the weekend leading to continued clear skies but slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Friday, the high will be north of the area, leading to a light northerly surface wind which will maintain slightly below average temperatures. The high will move directly over Louisiana on Saturday and after a cool morning, surface divergence due to the high and compressional warming on account of a weak mid-level ridge will allow about a 30 degree diurnal spread in temperatures and a warmer afternoon. On Sunday, the high will setup in the Northeastern Gulf and some return flow will begin. Additional moisture will keep the daily thermal range a bit lower so while the morning starts warmer, highs will be similar to Saturday. Several hours of return flow will lead to some humidity once again being felt by Monday and a shortwave trough positioned in the Midwest will allow some weak disturbance to pinwheel through the area early next week. Due to the additional moisture and thus additional instability, these impulses may be just enough to kick out some pop-up shower or storm action each afternoon—though widespread and high impact precipitation is not expected at this time.    

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Sunshine with a sweet slice of lime http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunshine-with-a-sweet-slice-of-lime/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sunshine-with-a-sweet-slice-of-lime/ Weather Thu, 5 May 2016 5:39:54 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sunshine with a sweet slice of lime

With a weak reinforcing cold front passing the region, another sunny and comfortable afternoon will be followed by a cool night. Pleasant weather will carry through the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday Afternoon will offer abundant sunshine with high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s. With continued northerly breezes, we could call it an almost chilly night with lows pegged for the low 50s.

Up Next: Friday will bring more sunshine with a high temperature in the upper 70s. Outdoor plans for the upcoming weekend are in great shape. For Saturday and Sunday, expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s with afternoon highs making it to the low 80s. Sunshine will be plentiful, with only a few clouds possible on Sunday. The next chance for any showers will hold off until Tuesday.  


Share with us how you are enjoying the outdoors! Feel free to tweet your “nice” weather photos to @WBRZweather or email weather@wbrz.com. We'll showacse your shots on air and on social media!  


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While an upper trough takes hold in the Southeastern United States, we’ve still got a weak reinforcing front crossing the region. This boundary will simply maintain status quo with light northerly winds, dew points in the 50s and temperatures running 5-10 degrees below average. The greatest departure from average will occur with Friday Morning lows, in the low 50s, as light winds and clear skies set up a pretty good night for radiational cooling. A weak mid-level ridge will traverse the area over the weekend allowing highs to return to more typical readings in the low 80s. By Sunday, the surface high will translate eastward to Florida and return flow will begin. With this, a few clouds may be able to bubble. On Monday, the feel will be more akin to May with some humidity back. The next shortwave will slide north of the region during the middle of next week perhaps bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the local area as early as Tuesday. 

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Gotta love this http://www.wbrz.com/news/gotta-love-this/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/gotta-love-this/ Weather Wed, 4 May 2016 6:05:54 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Gotta love this

The WBRZ Weather Team is making its pitch to the chamber of commerce—clear skies, warm afternoons and low humidity will be good for outdoor business through the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday Afternoon will offer brilliant blue sky and sunshine with a high temperature in the upper 70s. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10mph. A weak cold front will come by overnight but even a passing cloud may be tough to find. Lows will stop in the upper 50s with northerly breezes continuing.

Up Next: Another sunny afternoon is ahead for Thursday. High temperatures will make it into the upper 70s. With continued northerly breezes behind the front, an (almost) chilly morning is in store Friday with temperatures bottoming out in the low 50s. That will be followed up with another sunny and comfortable afternoon. Both weekend days will bring sun and highs in the low 80s.     

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A trough in the Southeastern United States will keep a cooler column of air overhead through Friday. A surface high pressure migrating from the Lower Midwest toward the Gulf Coast will help to push a reinforcing front through the region Early Thursday. This front will come by the region dry with virtually no atmospheric moisture available. The result will be a continued northerly wind direction and dry air advection. Clear skies and light north winds on Thursday Night may result in thermometers as much as 10 degrees below average Friday morning, with many areas waking up in the low 50s. Dew points will stay in the 50s through Saturday keeping comfortable afternoons in the forecast. A weak mid-level ridge will traverse the area over the weekend allowing highs to return to more typical readings in the low 80s. By Sunday, the surface high will translate eastward to Florida and return flow will begin. Monday, the feel will be more akin to May with some humidity back. The next shortwave will slide north of the region during the middle of next week perhaps bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the local area. 

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Winds of change http://www.wbrz.com/news/winds-of-change/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/winds-of-change/ Weather Tue, 3 May 2016 6:05:11 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Winds of change

A transitional day is ahead. Shifting northwesterly winds are drying the air mass signaling the arrival of a quiet pattern for the next several days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As a cold front moves south of the area, a lingering cloud deck will slowly break from northwest to southeast. If there is a leftover shower, it will be limited to coastal locations. Sunshine is expected to break out during the afternoon. Breezes that have turned northwesterly will nudge humidity out of the area and afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s. Overnight, skies will continue to clear with lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: Wednesday through Friday will bring mostly clear skies with highs near 80 degrees and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Outdoor plans are looking much better for the upcoming weekend with sunshine and highs in the low 80s.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level trough will dig into the Southeastern United States on Tuesday. This will guide a slow-moving surface cold front deeper into the Gulf of Mexico—the same that has plagued the region with rain since Saturday. As the front exits, a spotty shower may try to hang on, especially for coastal areas. Then, a surface high pressure in the Midwest will bring northerly winds and a cooler, drier air mass for the middle of the week. The trough will be in place through Thursday with the high nudging toward the Gulf Coast by the weekend. Thus, a reinforcing front is pegged to brush by ahead of the high keeping cooler than average temperatures around into Saturday. Normal highs and lows this time of year are in the mid 80s and low 60s; expect low 80s and upper 50s. Mainly clear skies are expected Wednesday through Saturday. The next rain holds off until next Monday or Tuesday, at the earliest.    

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
More rain and boomers begin new week http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-rain-and-boomers-begin-new-week/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/more-rain-and-boomers-begin-new-week/ Weather Mon, 2 May 2016 6:00:00 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus More rain and boomers begin new week

One more day of unsettled weather is ahead before marked improvements arrive across the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: More rain and thunderstorms will ring in the new week. Still, heavy rain remains a concern and the FLASH FLOOD WATCH is posted through this evening. An additional inch is possible with locally higher amounts. Let’s not put any cars in puddles, keeping in mind, TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN. If a road is flooded over, DO NOT attempt to drive through. We’ll find an alternate route to get where we need to go. Much of the storminess will occur during the first half of the day. The heaviest and steadiest action will be along and south of I-12. The afternoon will be mostly cloudy otherwise with temperatures struggling to reach 80 degrees. Overnight, the showers will slacken with low temperatures in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Tuesday will bring one final possibility of showers, though isolated, as a cold front moves south of the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s as winds turn northerly at 5-10mph. Wednesday to Friday will be mostly clear with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s. 

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A cold front is stalled out across the Gulf Coast. A clear forcing mechanism in place, waves of upper level energy riding overhead have been the triggers for batches of rain over the weekend. Those processes will continue on Monday as another wave pushes through. The National Weather Service is leaving the FLASH FLOOD WATCH up as dew points and precipitable water values remain quite high with the boundary not yet flushed from the region. The front will begin to slip south on Tuesday, ending the heavy rain threat, but will be close enough that some renegade showers may break out, especially to the southeast, as a  little more jet stream energy moves through the region. By Wednesday, a surface high pressure system moving southeastward across the Midwest will displace the front southward and northerly wind swill take hold of the region—temporarily ridding the region of the unseasonably humid air mass. Temperatures will be at or below average Wednesday through Friday with ample sunshine during the afternoon hours.

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Rumbly, rainy Sunday http://www.wbrz.com/news/rumbly-rainy-sunday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rumbly-rainy-sunday/ Weather Sun, 1 May 2016 7:12:31 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Rumbly, rainy Sunday

This morning, you may have been woken up by some rumbly monsters outside the window. We're not currently under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch and we don't expect a watch to be issued at this time. We are still however under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening.

There is a MARGINAL risk for severe weather today; a 1 out of 5. Yesterday, there was a slight risk; a 2 out of 5. Overall, we're not expecting too many severe storms, but if we do see a storm get an attitude, it will likely bring gusty winds or large hail more than a tornado. Any severe storms will be isolated. That being said, it will still be noisy and heavy rain will fall at times, but these aren't criteria for a "severe" storm.

I'll be with you until the storms are out of here and bring updates as necessary. Be aware of flooded streets and TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Every storm we receive footage of vehicles getting stuck in flooded roadways from daredevils who decided to take the risk. Only a few inches of water is enough to displace your vehicle.

For the latest updates and FIRST in the city, follow our social media accounts. If necessary, I'll bring you live nonstop coverage again on our 24/7 weather channel. You can catch it on Cox 18, Eatel 120, or with an antenna on 2.3. It also streams live on the WBRZ Weather App as well as wbrz.com.

Stay updated through the day and enjoy your Sunday! Again, I'm here with you!

On Facebook: WBRZ Weather; Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @WBRZweather; @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

~RG3


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Showers expected Saturday afternoon, throughout Sunday http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-expected-saturday-afternoon-throughout-sunday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-expected-saturday-afternoon-throughout-sunday/ Weather Fri, 29 Apr 2016 11:10:46 PM Hunter Robinson Showers expected Saturday afternoon, throughout Sunday

BATON ROUGE - Some weekend plans may have to change with showers expected Saturday afternoon and throughout the day Sunday.

Showers are forecasted to begin around lunchtime Saturday and continue into the evening. The rain should eventually subside but will likely return Sunday with a chance for some thunderstorms. The rainy weather should clear our Sunday evening.

By 10 a.m. Saturday morning, a wall of showers will stretch from Alexandria down to Lafayette and Lake Charles. That should arrive in the WBRZ viewing area around 11:30 a.m. There will likely be some breaks in the precipitation between 2-5 p.m. before some spotty showers arrive Saturday evening across New Roads and Baton Rouge.

Watch Pat's forecast for more.


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Friday dry, Saturday turns wet http://www.wbrz.com/news/friday-dry-saturday-turns-wet/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/friday-dry-saturday-turns-wet/ Weather Fri, 29 Apr 2016 6:07:37 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Friday dry, Saturday turns wet

An afternoon more becoming of early summer is ahead for the final weekday in April. Meanwhile, outdoor weekend events will have to be mindful of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: To wrap up the week, we’ll catch a break from the showers and thunderstorms. With a good deal of sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. It will be quite humid as well. Overnight, quiet conditions are expected to continue with lows around 70 degrees.

Up Next: Some adjustments have been made to the weekend forecast. While the morning hours continue to look dry, a line of showers and thunderstorms is currently shown by forecast models to reach the area by afternoon. Timing will be crucial to outdoor events on Saturday. Check in with @WBRZweather on Twitter or the free WBRZ WX app. for the location of approaching storms. Conditions otherwise will be warm and muggy with a high in the mid 80s. Sunday is still expected to be unsettled with periods of rain and thunderstorms. After a muggy start around 70 degrees, highs will be limited to the low 80s. Scattered showers and storms will continue through Tuesday.    

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A subtle ridge axis in the upper levels should be enough to keep the region rain-free through Friday. Don’t mistake the lack of rain for “dry” conditions as it will be humid out there. With continued southerly winds, moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will maintain dew points in the upper 60s providing a summer level of humidity. Into Saturday, the next upper trough extending across the Mid South will kick up a surface low pressure system and cold front in Texas. An initial squall line associated with that front may blow ahead of the front associated with an upper trough axis—possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms into the region as early as Midday Saturday. By Sunday, the cold front will drag eastward into the local area providing a lifting mechanism for an unstable air mass. The result will be periods of rain and thunderstorms dictated by energy in the upper levels which is shown by forecast models to be ever-present on Sunday. Therefore, extended dry spells on Sunday are not a safe bet at this point. The front will stall out along the coast on Monday leaving a focus in place with showers and thunderstorms to spark. On Tuesday, forecast models show a wave of low pressure developing along the coast, bringing one final unsettled day before a high pressure settling into the Midwest flushes the region out by Wednesday. Clear skies and cooler than average temperatures are in store for the end of next week.        

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
On and off showers through afternoon http://www.wbrz.com/news/on-and-off-showers-through-afternoon/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/on-and-off-showers-through-afternoon/ Weather Thu, 28 Apr 2016 6:21:50 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus On and off showers through afternoon

While showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast, the risk for severe weather is much lower today, with action much more scattered in nature.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will again be scattered on Thursday—especially during the first half of the day. No washout is in the cards and a few breaks of sun are possible in between showers. While the threat for severe weather is low, downpours, gusty wind and small hail are possible. High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s. Overnight, lows will remain well above average for Late April, in the low 70s.

Up Next: A warm and humid feel will continue into Friday with high temperatures taking aim at 90 degrees. Most locations will likely fall just short of that plateau but it will feel much more like June than April. Saturday will be warm, but it is starting to look as though showers will need to be mentioned in the afternoon and evening ‘casts. By Sunday, a storm system is expected to bring more widespread rain and thunderstorms.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Isolated showers and thunderstorms will hang on Thursday in the presence of a weak leftover boundary. Forcing will be much weaker as the upper trough axis won’t offer as much support. Coverage and intensity of storms will be much lower than Wednesday and the showers will be most likely during the middle of the day with peak heating available. By Friday, a weak mid-level ridge will bring more of a lid over the region capping off much, if not all, of the convection. Another shortwave, positioned farther south will work into the region by Sunday. An accompanying surface low and front are expected to help develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend. Slow-moving, this trough could send waves of rain toward the local area with a few inches accumulating between Sunday and Tuesday.     

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH until 12pm for Baton Rouge area http://www.wbrz.com/news/severe-t-storm-watch-until-12pm-for-baton-rouge-area/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/severe-t-storm-watch-until-12pm-for-baton-rouge-area/ Weather Wed, 27 Apr 2016 8:09:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus SEVERE T-STORM WATCH until 12pm for Baton Rouge area

The National Weather Service has issued a *SEVERE T-STORM WATCH* for the ENTIRE WBRZ Weather forecast area until 12pm.

***10am UPDATE: the watch has been extended until 3pm***

Locations within the SEVERE T-STORM WATCH area include the parishes of East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee St. Helena, St. James, St, Mary, Tangipahoa and West Feliciana in Louisiana and the Counties of Amite, Pike and Wilkinson in Mississippi.

A SEVERE T-STORM WATCH means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and around the watch area. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. If a warning is issued, you should seek shelter inside of a sturdy building to protect yourself from the possibility of damaging wind, hail and dangerous lightning.


Threats: 1. Damaging Wind | 2. Hail | 3. Isolated Tornado

Coverage and Timing: A line of thunderstorms is expected to cross the area between 10am – 2pm today. Most, if not all, of the forecast area will be affected by the line. However, storms will vary in intensity along the line.

Actions: Be alert to rapid changes in weather, have access to bulletins through the WBRZ WX app., the WBRZ Cable Weather Channel, WBRZ Weather on Facebook and @WBRZweather on Twitter. With both the weather app. and Twitter, you can change your cellular phone settings to allow push notifications and alerts for updates from the WBRZ Weather team. PLEASE share information with those that do not have access to digital media sources. You can share Facebook posts and retweet alerts and make a phone call to those without TV or internet. Any such step could be lifesaving. Secure loose outdoor objects. Move cars under covered areas where possible. Review storm safety plans with friends and family.

Remember: a watch means conditions are favorable for a specific hazard to develop in the future so you should have a readiness plan, a warning means a specific hazard is happening now and you need to take safety precautions immediately.

For a complete analysis, CLICK for today’s weather blog.


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Midday showers and storms, a few could be strong http://www.wbrz.com/news/midday-showers-and-storms-a-few-could-be-strong/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/midday-showers-and-storms-a-few-could-be-strong/ Weather Wed, 27 Apr 2016 6:10:11 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Midday showers and storms, a few could be strong

The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the WBRZ Weather forecast area in a “slight risk” for severe storms on Wednesday. Gusty wind and hail are the main threats. Carry on with the day as usual; just keep your severe weather safety plan in mind and stay in touch with the forecast. Our weather team will let you know if any watches or warnings are issued.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to cross the area between 10am – 2pm, with only isolated activity otherwise. Should the line of storms develop some breaks, it is feasible that a small area misses out on rain today, but most will get something. While temperatures will fall as it rains, some returning sunshine this afternoon should still allow a high temperature in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, a few showers may continue on, with low temperatures sticking in the upper 60s.  

Up Next: Showers and thunderstorms will again be more isolated on Thursday—especially during the first half of the day. Again, no washout is in the cards and some sun is expected before and after any showers. High temperatures will climb into the mid 80s. A warm and humid feel will continue into Friday and Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 80s and far fewer showers in the area. By Sunday, a storm system is expected to bring more widespread rain.    

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A negatively titled trough lifting northeastward through the Midwest and weakening will have enough momentum to send a squall line toward the Gulf Coast today. This feature will move into an unstable and moist environment. High resolution models are timing the squall line out for midday; some as early as 10am, others as late as noon. While uplift will be modest, the line itself should be able to sustain showers and thunderstorms feeding off of the environment alone. While widespread severe weather is not expected, some gusty wind, hail and downpours will be possible with any of the storms. The SPC has included areas along and north of I-10 in a “slight risk” for severe storms and this seems appropriate. Measurable rain coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area is expected to be up compared to the isolated showers noted over the last two days—on the order of 60%. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will hang on Thursday in the presence of a weak leftover boundary. By Friday, a weak mid-level ridge will bring more of a lid over the region capping off much, if not all, of the convection. Another shortwave, positioned farther south will work into the region by Sunday. An accompanying surface low and front are expected to help develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend. Slow-moving, this trough could send waves of rain toward the local area with a few inches accumulating between Sunday and Tuesday.     

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Some sun and spotty showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-sun-and-spotty-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-sun-and-spotty-showers/ Weather Tue, 26 Apr 2016 6:05:44 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Some sun and spotty showers

The sun, pop-up showers and warm temperatures will continue.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will play out similar to Monday in that partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 80s will give way to pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Little more than 20% measurable rain coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area is expected. Most, if not all action, will be during the afternoon hours. By the evening, any showers will fall apart and then overnight lows will stop in the upper 60s.

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will offer a slight uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage—most likely in the Wednesday Afternoon time period. Skies will be partly sunny otherwise with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s. By Friday, the sporadic spigot drip should shut off with a good deal of sun and highs in the upper 80s.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While a weak mid-level ridge slides over the Central Gulf Coast, so too will positive vorticity advection. With pockets of increased moisture, isolated showers and thunderstorms could try to develop. However, the areal rain coverage should again be in the 20% range. By Wednesday and Thursday, the mid-level mid-range should be squashed to the southeast allowing just a bit more instability for afternoon convection to develop. In addition, some of the models suggest that a squall line will race eastward away from a storm system in the Midwest, perhaps reaching the local area Wednesday Evening. We’ll monitor the evolution of this potential feature. Once again, some ridging figures to be overhead Friday bringing a dry period into Early Saturday. By Sunday a surface low pressure system developed east of an upper level trough will move into the Texarkana Region with an associated cold front draped to its southwest. After a week of moisture loading in the local area, more widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the result—especially Sunday. As the trough pushes eastward into next week, the region will likely enter a more unsettled and cooler pattern for Early May.    

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
To the end of April http://www.wbrz.com/news/to-the-end-of-april/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/to-the-end-of-april/ Weather Mon, 25 Apr 2016 5:49:18 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus To the end of April

The week ahead will bring weather becoming of spring with sunshine, the daily chance for a pop-up shower and temperatures around 5 degrees above average.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday will bring more clouds than noticed over the weekend. Highs will make it into the middle 80s. During the late morning and early afternoon hours, isolated showers and thunderstorms may spark off, with about 20% coverage in measurable rain across the forecast area. Overnight will be partly cloudy with a low in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Tuesday through Thursday bring similar weather. Mornings will begin in the upper 60s, followed by partly sunny skies as high temperatures run for the middle 80s. Winds will be light and southerly. The afternoon hours will offer isolated showers and thunderstorms, with measurable rain coverage in the 20-30% range around the forecast area, but certainly no daylong washouts.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The westward and eastward variations in position of an upper level ridge will dictate the weather pattern for the upcoming week. For Monday, the ridge axis will slide eastward allowing the atmosphere to unlid somewhat as an upper level trough kicks through the northern tier of the nation with a mid-level trough moving across the Gulf. Due to this, some increased uplift may be available for the development of a few showers and thunderstorms. Some moisture should be available as return flow from the Gulf of Mexico has been able to reestablish over the weekend. However, because a pocket of dry air aloft lies just to the west and is reaching eastward, the window of opportunity for showers should shut down by mid-afternoon. The ridge will move back over the forecast area for Tuesday before another pair of shortwave troughs to the north bumps it to the Southeast U.S. for Wednesday and Thursday. Generally speaking, afternoon convection should be isolated to scattered with the best chance coming north of I-12. Due to the ridge and southerly flow, temperatures will be above average through the week.

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Take your pick http://www.wbrz.com/news/take-your-pick/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/take-your-pick/ Weather Fri, 22 Apr 2016 6:05:15 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Take your pick

After showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area Thursday Afternoon, many locations were treated to a beautiful rainbow and sunset. For more of your photos, check out the WBRZ Weather Facebook Page. The culprit for those showers, a weak cold front, will push through the region today, ending rain chances just in time for a weekend packed with outdoor events in the Baton Rouge area.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Spotty, light showers may linger—especially early as a weakening cold front slides across the area. After morning fog dissipates, skies are expected to clear from northwest to southeast through the day. Highs will make it into the low 80s. Continued clearing is expected overnight with a low temperature dropping to near 60 degrees.

Up Next: The weekend will bring quiet and clear mornings with lows in the low 60s followed by mostly sunny and warm afternoons. Saturday will have high temperatures running into the low 80s while Sunday will be a touch warmer in the mid 80s. The next chance for a shower or thunderstorm comes on Monday, but it does not look like a major weather event.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The nuisance upper trough that has brought persistent unsettled weather to the Mid-South since Monday will eject eastward today. As the axis pushes across the Gulf Coast, it will drag a cold front through the region. Showers will remain ahead of and along the front, therefore rain chances will be trimmed from north to south as the boundary movement allows. Obviously, a faster passage would result in quicker clearing and more afternoon sun. Over the weekend, a weak mid-level ridge will be enough to keep the region dry and warmer than average. Both weekend days will bring sunshine and highs in the mid 80s. Forecast models are now showing a fast-moving and weaker shortwave crossing the area on Monday. Current solutions suggest no more than isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond that, most of the jet stream energy will lie well north of the region allowing a quiet and quite warm middle part of next week. Highs could be 5-10 degrees above average with upper 80s possible Tuesday – Thursday.   

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Better bet for showers http://www.wbrz.com/news/better-bet-for-showers/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/better-bet-for-showers/ Weather Thu, 21 Apr 2016 6:10:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Better bet for showers

A cold front moving into the region will allow more coverage in showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area before activity breaks off as the week ends.

Wednesday brought the expected scattered showers and thunderstorms which were indeed limited to northern and western sections of the forecast area.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday brings the best rain chances of the week with greater coverage across the forecast area—especially during the afternoon and evening. Some localized downpours and gusty winds will be possible. One caveat to watch: a complex of rain and storms along the coast during the morning hours, may steal some energy available for development further north during the day. If this becomes the case, coverage and intensity will be lower. Highs will approach 80 degrees with some early sun expected prior to any precipitation. Areas of rain and storms will continue overnight as a cold front settles into the area. Lows will hold in the mid 60s.

Up Next: By Friday, showers will end from north to south with some clearing possible later. Highs will climb into the low 80s. The weekend will start off in the low 60s with Saturday Afternoon brining mostly sunny skies and a warm 83 degrees. Sunday is looking mostly sunny as well with high temperatures a little warmer, getting into the mid 80s.


Meteorologist Josh Eachus discusses what may "shield" the area from widespread action later today and well above average temperatures in the near future:


THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Alas, the stubborn and slow moving upper level low that has been parked over the Western United States is being absorbed by the jet stream and weakening. As this trough kicks to the northeast towards the Great Lakes region, its axis will guide a cold front toward the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Ahead of this front, moisture is pooling and the front will provide necessary uplift for showers and thunderstorms to develop. On top of this, as lobes of positive vorticity advection had been the culprit for development on Tuesday and Wednesday, another pocket of vorticity will enhance activity—especially Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The cold front will sink slowly southward on Friday ending precipitation from north to south through the morning. Some sun may break out, especially in northern areas by the afternoon. Over the weekend, a weak ridge will pass over the region Saturday leading to a mostly sunny and warm afternoon. Sunday is looking warm as well however forecast models are now all in agreement that a fast-moving shortwave will cross the area in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. A faster outcome would mean some showers need to be added to forecasts for the end of the weekend. Additionally, this wave is negatively oriented so may need to be monitored for the possibility of strong storms. This will be the main hiccup to monitor in the 7-day forecast. Warmer than average temperatures are anticipated through the middle of next week.  

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Front to approach the area tomorrow http://www.wbrz.com/news/front-to-approach-the-area-tomorrow/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/front-to-approach-the-area-tomorrow/ Weather Wed, 20 Apr 2016 5:59:00 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Front to approach the area tomorrow

Over the next 48 hours a cold front will slowly cross the region, maintaining scattered shower and thunderstorm possibilities until it does. The most likely period for widespread rain will be Thursday Afternoon and Evening.

Tuesday indeed brought scattered showers—though they were very light, not amounting to anything for most. Only about 20 percent of the area saw measurable rainfall. Those locations were north and west of Baton Rouge as was forecast.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday with a few showers and thunderstorms, but not a washout. The chances to pick up measurable rain will be greatest during the afternoon hours. Highs will reach for 80 degrees with southerly winds of 5-10mph. Overnight, spotty showers should tend to shut down. Low temperatures will be in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Thursday brings the best rain chances of the week with greater coverage across the forecast area. Some localized downpours will be possible. Highs will make it to the upper 70s during the afternoon hours. Areas of rain and storms may continue overnight as a front settles into the area. Lows will hold in the mid 60s. By Friday, showers will ease off with some returning sun in the afternoon. The weekend is shaping up to be warm, dry and mostly clear.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  While a shortwave trough works across the Midwest and Eastern United States through Thursday, ripples of vorticity will help to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. On Wednesday, a moist profile will lend to the development of showers and thunderstorms. Activity should be fairly isolated until some better upper level energy arrives later in the day. By Thursday, not only will there be an area of vorticity but likely a weak front dropping southeastward through the region to enhance uplift. For that reason, this appears to be the most likely period for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. By this time, instability looks to be a bit higher with dew points in the upper 60s and precipitable water about 150% of normal. The upper wind profiles are not all that conducive to severe weather though, so heavy rain would be the main issue. There is some discrepancy as to how long the rain showers will hold on Friday. The GFS keeps action around through Friday while the ECMWF and GEM models bring everything to a close early in the day. The latter scenario seems more likely by a matter of model persistence of the last few days. Over the weekend, some weak ridging aloft should bring forth a trend of drying and warming. High temperatures will make it 4-7 degrees above average by Sunday with return flow kicking in by Monday to bring some humidity as well.  

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Showers return to the forecast for a few days http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-return-to-the-forecast-for-a-few-days/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-return-to-the-forecast-for-a-few-days/ Weather Tue, 19 Apr 2016 6:00:35 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Showers return to the forecast for a few days

After a few mostly cloudy but rain free days, showers will again be possible through Thursday. No washouts are expected.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With another day featuring plenty of clouds, Tuesday will also bring the chance for a few showers. The best chances will be west of a north-south line through Baton Rouge during the afternoon hours. Highs will head for the upper 70s with southeast winds of 5-10mph. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday with a few showers and thunderstorms, but not a washout. Highs will reach for 80 degrees. Thursday brings the best rain chances of the week with greater coverage across the forecast area. Highs will be in the upper 70s during the afternoon hours. By Friday, showers will ease off with some returning sun in the afternoon. The weekend is shaping up to be warm and dry.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper ridge will begin to breakdown on Tuesday with some lobes of positive vorticity advection beginning to ripple through the region. Initially, it doesn’t appear as though the moisture layer in the atmosphere will be that thick—to the level that any activity should remain isolated. However, by Wednesday the column should saturate further as more vorticity ripples through the region with a shortwave moving by to the north. As a result, areal coverage in showers and thunderstorms should pick up a little bit on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, with the upper trough axis draped across the region and what looks to be the best forcing of the week with a weak front chugging through, activity should be more scattered in nature. By Friday, a surface high pressure in the Midwest will nudge action to the east with an upper ridge taking over for the weekend. Expect this surface high and ridge to lead to a warm stretch of days Saturday to Monday.

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Still on the cloud line http://www.wbrz.com/news/still-on-the-cloud-line/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/still-on-the-cloud-line/ Weather Mon, 18 Apr 2016 6:24:52 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Still on the cloud line

Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue along Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain and the Lower Tickfaw River as southeast winds of 10-15mph persist today. Tides will run 2-3 feet above average. The same southeast winds leading to high water have maintained enough low-level moisture to keep a stubborn cloud deck west of I-55 through the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Monday will alas bring some sun—especially for eastern portions of the forecast area. Locations that receive more sun will make it into the upper 70s. Where clouds persist, the mid 70s are more likely. Winds will be southeast at 5-10mph. Overnight, lows will be in the low 60s. 

Up Next: Chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase from west to east Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Primarily driven by daytime heating, activity will be scattered in nature. Highs will chug for the upper 70s and low 80s prior to the shower and storm development.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper ridge continues to be the main player for the local weather pattern. Its presence will influence a continued dry pattern, squashing any convective development. In addition, a surface high pressure continues drooping southwestward into the Eastern U.S. which is also aiding a dry pattern, but can be blamed for the weekend and ongoing cloud deck. The onshore, east-southeast winds have added moisture to the air mass and this layer became trapped beneath the ridge of warmer air aloft. The stratus deck resulted and will remain stubborn, more so the farther west of I-55. By Wednesday, an upper low currently over West Texas, will slide farther east breaking down the ridge and destabilizing the atmosphere. Ironically, this may help to punch holes in the cloud deck but will also signal the return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Further western locations will see better coverage. The upper low is expected to kick east by the end of the week bringing a drier and sunnier pattern for the weekend. 

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
Trending drier through the weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-drier-through-the-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-drier-through-the-weekend/ Weather Fri, 15 Apr 2016 6:07:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trending drier through the weekend

Look for a transitional day of weather with areal rain coverage beginning to scale back.

It was a good forecast yesterday. Early showers were limited to areas south of I-10, while thunderstorms developed late in the day for locations northwest of Baton Rouge. The 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area saw 70% rain coverage as expected. Fortunately, although hail was a possibility, there were no such reports with any of the evening thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will bring cloud cover and lingering showers though skies will reveal a few breaks of sun. Any spotty showers that do occur should be lighter and brief. Highs will make it into the upper 70s. Precipitation coverage will wane overnight with a low temperature dipping into the low 60s.

Up Next: Over the weekend, afternoon skies are expected to be partly sunny although an isolated shower can’t be entirely ruled out—coastal areas would stand the best chance. Highs will push 80 degrees. A similar pattern will be carried through Monday and Tuesday with no organized rain foreseen through early next week.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Friday presents a fairly tricky forecast. The axis of a shortwave trough should be east effectively ending uplift in the local area. However, the lingering cold pool aloft associated with that trough and some surface moisture may allow the continued development of a few showers. At the same time, the back side of the trough features much dry air which is shown to be pushing into the forecast area on the water vapor imagery which would work against shower development. In addition, upper ridging atop the leftover low level moisture may result in considerable cloudiness early Friday, but diurnal heating will help to mix this layer out to reveal some afternoon sun as well. It remains difficult to go with an all dry forecast Saturday through Monday; however the aforementioned upper ridge should put a lid on most if not all convection. Additionally, a broad surface high pressure system will be nudging southwestward from the Northeast U.S. promoting fair weather for a large chunk of the Eastern U.S. Our locale appears to be on the periphery of the surface high’s reach. An upper trough in the Southwest U.S. will loop waves of vorticity around just to our west. Should a bit of energy sneak east, enough surface moisture would be available to trigger spotty showers—especially closer to the coast. For these reasons, we may have to consider mentioning 10% rain chances through the period. The ridge and surface high will begin to break down by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week allowing return flow and the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The specifics are a bit unclear and will be worked out as we watch deep cutoff low in the Southwest be absorbed by the sub-tropical jet stream.  


Researchers at Colorado State University have released their annual tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic Basin. CLICK HERE for the full story.


For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

Twitter: @Josh_Eachus

Google+: Josh Eachus 

Facebook: Meteorologist Josh Eachus


Permalink| Comments


]]>
El Nino fizzling: what does this mean for the upcoming hurricane season? http://www.wbrz.com/news/el-nino-fizzling-what-does-this-mean-for-the-upcoming-hurricane-season-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/el-nino-fizzling-what-does-this-mean-for-the-upcoming-hurricane-season-/ Weather Thu, 14 Apr 2016 10:18:57 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus El Nino fizzling: what does this mean for the upcoming hurricane season?

El Niño is scheduled to depart while the likelihood is increasing that La Niña will take over. For climate pundits, it should come as no surprise that the tropical research team with Colorado State University is predicting average activity for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.   

Their outlook calls for an additional* 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes with two being considered major (category 3 strength or higher). Annual averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

*Hurricane Alex already struck the Azores earlier this year--a rare January storm.

The annual Colorado State prediction is based on a statistical model developed with 29 years of data. Seasonal updates are issued on June 1 and August 3.

Notable for Gulf Coast interests, the experts calculated a 58-percent chance of a hurricane landfall for areas between Brownsville, Texas and the Florida Panhandle and an 82-percent chance of a named storm landfall. Those numbers fall just shy of the 100 year averages of 60-percent and 83-percent.

Researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray cited a weakening El Niño as reason to trend away from predictions of below average action issued over the last few years. The development of a La Niña late in the season will continue to decrease wind shear. However, the team says the North Atlantic Ocean temperatures are unusually cold which is less conducive to development.  

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. We keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather the two phases of ENSO influence change in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events.

For instance, recent bouts and heavy rain and severe weather along the Gulf Coast coincide with expectations for an El Niño  spring. Historically, El Niño also has strong ties to quieter hurricane seasons as well.

On the other hand, La Niña is a pattern which favors much more activity in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season. During La Niña, trade winds weaken over the Atlantic Ocean creating a more supportive environment for tropical cyclone formation.

Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly or hurricane. If La Niña does indeed develop, the Atlantic Basin faces an increased chance at above average tropical activity. Despite higher chances, it is much too early to determine where storms will develop or where they will go.

For that reason, the WBRZ Weather Team reminds that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. NOAA’s official outlook is expected in Late May. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, stay tuned to WBRZ for our annual special, “Weathering the Storm.”


Connect with the WBRZ Weather team on Facebook and Twitter.


Permalink| Comments


]]>