WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2016, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Mon, 26 Sep 2016 06:09:03 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Changing temperatures possible next week http://www.wbrz.com/news/changing-temperatures-possible-next-week/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/changing-temperatures-possible-next-week/ Weather Fri, 23 Sep 2016 5:58:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Changing temperatures possible next week

The first weekend of fall will be warm and sticky with only isolated showers possible.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Summer weather keeps on rollin’ with Friday’s forecast. The afternoon will bring partly sunny skies with a high temperature in the low 90s. Humidity will be higher than what we felt earlier this week thanks to winds shifting southeast. The evening will be a good one for high school football. At night, skies will remain mostly clear with a low in the low 70s.      

Up Next: Over the weekend, above average temperatures will continue with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Afternoons will feature partly sunny skies and only isolated showers—with considerably lower rain chances away from the coastal parishes. Early next week, we’ll be tracking a cold front sliding eastward across the country. Right now, it is unclear whether or not this front will fully clear the area and bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity. There is better confidence that in its slow approach, rain and thunderstorm activity will increase into midweek.   

Football Forecast: Both LSU and Southern are heading into Alabama for a Saturday Evening kickoff. Fans making the short trip should dress for hot and dry weather. Game time temperatures will be close to 90 degrees, falling into the mid 80s throughout.    

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Karl has made the northwestern turn into the Central Atlantic Ocean, drastically strengthening overnight. Maximum sustained winds are 60mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Karl will eventually turn due north and then northeast over the weekend potentially clipping Bermuda with tropical storm conditions. Tropical Storm Lisa is heading out to sea into the Northeastern Atlantic. With maximum sustained winds of 40mph little additional strengthening is expected and the storm will weaken to a depression over the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level ridge and weak surface high pressure will maintain a generally quiet weather pattern through Saturday. Southeasterly winds are returning moisture to the lower levels while upper level air will feature increasing moisture but remain relatively dry. That being said, with the marine breezes, an isolated shower or storm becomes possible each afternoon through Sunday, but nothing widespread or organized is expected. With the ridge in place, temperatures will run about 5 degrees above average. Beginning Monday, forecast confidence drops. Simply put, models cannot find much agreement or run to run consistency with how next week will play out. The driving force behind all of this is an upper level trough that will enter the Pacific Northwest by Saturday. Once this trough reaches the sounding network, models should get a much better grip on what’s to come. Of late, both the GFS and Euro have trended off of a full frontal passage. Instead, a slow moving cold front is expected to crawl from Texas to West Louisiana between Monday and Wednesday. As it nears the local area, rain chances should gradually increase each day thanks to increased moisture and uplift. Taking the model consensus and siding with the Weather Prediction Center, will currently call for the front to dissipate over the area, never providing a full push of cooler and drier air. Rather, temperatures will come down somewhat due to increased cloud cover, showers and thunderstorms but humidity won’t change much. Given the erratic nature of recent model runs, this portion of the forecast is highly subject to change. One other note, keep in mind that it isn’t uncommon for areas of low pressure to spin up on the tail end of fronts stalled in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year. Forecast models, at least the GFS, are also hinting at that possibility.       

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Summer Summary: record rain and lots of humidity http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-summary-record-rain-and-lots-of-humidity-88348/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-summary-record-rain-and-lots-of-humidity-88348/ Weather Thu, 22 Sep 2016 1:00:09 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Summer Summary: record rain and lots of humidity

For Baton Rouge, the summer of 2016 will go down as the wettest ever recorded. The Great Flood of 2016 was responsible for approximately 40 percent of 44 inches of rain. Even without that record three day total of 17.5 inches, this year would have gone down as one of the top ten wettest summers on record.

Likely also responsible for the uptick from normal rain, high dew points (humidity) also kept low temperatures uncomfortably warm, more so than usual. Thermometers stayed at or above 70 degrees since June 9; no summer storm, not even the flooding rain cooled temperatures lower. As of Thursday, a record stretch of 106 days without reaching 69 degrees or lower continued.    

While still in the upper echelon of hot summers, 2016 is marginally less impressive when viewed through the lens of meteorological summer versus astronomical summer. What’s the difference? According to NOAA, “astronomical seasons are based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle.” As June, July and August are traditionally the warmest, meteorologists look to those months to tally summer statistics.

However, by simply using astronomical summer as a “climate data period,” 2016 leaves behind even more striking statistics. Of the six data categories examined, 2016 takes the top spot in four: wettest, highest average low, highest average temperature and most low temperatures above 70 degrees. The period has also had the second most days with highs above 90 degrees.

On Tuesday, NOAA announced that August marked the 16th straight month with record warm global temperatures—the longest such streak since data collection began in 1880. And coincident with some of the warm records falling in Baton Rouge, data also shows meteorological summer 2016 as the warmest across the globe.


*Data for Baton Rouge was used from Ryan Field at Metro Airport. | Period of record: 1930 – present

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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High temp map draped in its fall best http://www.wbrz.com/news/high-temp-map-draped-in-its-fall-best/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/high-temp-map-draped-in-its-fall-best/ Weather Thu, 22 Sep 2016 5:45:51 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus High temp map draped in its fall best

“Welcome to fall,” said the Louisiana meteorologist, as he wiped sweat from his brow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Call it a different season, but the weather forecast remains exactly the same. Expect a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures in the low 90s. Overnight, low temperatures won’t drop out of the low 70s as some humidity returns to the area as well.    

Up Next: Friday and Saturday will once again bring a “sticky” heat. High temperatures will climb to the low 90s beneath partly sunny skies. If any showers can get going, they would most likely be in coastal areas. By Sunday, the chance of some afternoon convection flaring up inland gets a little bit better, although rain coverage will remain at 30 percent or lower. A cold front may come into the region next week bringing rain and storms. Uncertainty is high right now. If the front clears the area, this would occur around mid-week and be followed by drier conditions, cooler temperatures and lower humidity. If the front stalls to our west, an unsettled, slightly cooler and muggy pattern will persist. 

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Karl has made the northwestern turn into the Central Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003mb. Karl will eventually turn due north and then northeast over the weekend potentially clipping Bermuda with tropical storm conditions. Tropical Storm Lisa is on a path destined for difficulty into the Northeastern Atlantic. With maximum sustained winds of 45mph little additional strengthening is expected as the storm stays out to sea, weakening to a depression over the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will generally weaken over the next few days. The remaining dry air mass should be enough to hold off showers until Friday though. Furthermore, less the sea breeze, there won’t be a trigger for development until at least Sunday. Moisture return will begin today due to southeasterly winds with dew points slowly creeping back into the low 70s. With that being said, nights of flirting with the upper 60s are over for the near term and afternoon highs won’t warm as efficiently, stopping around 90 degrees rather than the mid 90s. The low level moisture increase will begin to reintroduce afternoon clouds and by Sunday, there may be enough instability aloft for a few showers and thunderstorms to pop. Prior to that, any convection should hug coastal areas. Then, the fun starts. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been flip-flopping over a deep upper level trough moving across the northern tier of the country. An associated surface cold front will stretch from the Canadian border southward to Texas. Ahead of this feature, ripples of energy in a southwesterly flow aloft should be enough to kick out more showers and thunderstorms early next week. As the upper trough begins to close off to our north, positioning will be crucial. If the upper low stalls northwest of the region, the front will be very slow to arrive, if at all, and the area will stay in an unsettled and thus slightly cooler pattern. If the low makes it to the Great Lakes Region or farther east, the front should kick through in a progressive manner bringing lower temperatures and reduced humidity. These details should unfold by the weekend as forecast models get a better grip on the situation. Timing is difficult this far out, but a frontal passage in the Wednesday timeframe seems reasonable. One other note, keep in mind that it isn’t uncommon for areas of low pressure to spin up on the tail end of fronts stalled in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year. Forecast models are also hinting at that possibility.       

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Season ends but temperatures stay http://www.wbrz.com/news/season-ends-but-temperatures-stay/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/season-ends-but-temperatures-stay/ Weather Wed, 21 Sep 2016 5:55:08 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Season ends but temperatures stay

“Slightly drier” or not, the Baton Rouge remains hot and will enter astronomical fall feeling more like summer.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another afternoon of sun and warmth is ahead. Despite lower humidity, highs will easily climb into the low 90s. Overnight, expect clear skies with lows right around 70 degrees.  

Up Next: For the first day of fall, the feel will be more like summer. High temperatures will be 3-5 degrees above average—in the low 90s. Skies will stay mostly sunny. At night, some humidity will begin to return with low temperatures staying in the low 70s once again. That returning humidity will shape a repetitive forecast through Sunday. Days will be partly sunny with very isolated afternoon showers and highs in the low 90s.    

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Karl continues a west-northwest track across the Central Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Karl will be making a northerly turn by Friday as a tropical storm approaching Bermuda. Tropical Storm Lisa is on a path destined for difficulty into the Northeastern Atlantic. With maximum sustained winds of 50mph little additional strengthening is expected as the storm stays out to sea.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An area of surface high pressure northeast of the region will maintain northerly breezes, lower dew points and mainly clear skies through Thursday Morning. The result will be average temperatures in the morning and warmer than average temperatures in the afternoon. Very low atmospheric moisture will continue a stretch without rain. In fact, an extending ridge axis over the weekend will likely continue to keep rain chances very low. Models hint at a few impulses of energy beneath the ridge and with surface winds turning around to the southeast along with increasing moisture, some isolated afternoon convection can’t be ruled out. Still, the ridge will keep it difficult for anything widespread or organized to get going. A deep upper trough will enter the Desert Southwest over the weekend and kick up a cold front in the Lee of the Rockies. Of late, models have been trending toward the front dissipating before reaching the local area. However, as indicated by the National Weather Service, the models likely aren’t yet putting out a very good analysis on this system as it remains in the very low data region of the Pacific Ocean. If the front can make it through, we could see a more significant drop in temperatures.    

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Still hot, but drier http://www.wbrz.com/news/still-hot-but-drier/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/still-hot-but-drier/ Weather Tue, 20 Sep 2016 6:05:25 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Still hot, but drier

The Baton Rouge area looks to end a record stretch of days above 70 degrees dating back to June 9.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: If you don’t mind the warmth, Tuesday will shape up rather nicely. You can expect plenty of sunshine, lower humidity and a high in the low 90s. Skies will be clear overnight. With a little less moisture in the air, lows will squeak back into the upper 60s.  

Up Next: Similar to Tuesday, clear skies and drier warmth are expected through Thursday. By Friday, a southeasterly wind will begin to transport more humid are back into the region and reintroduce the possibility of a few pop-up showers. Friday through Sunday the forecast is for partly sunny afternoons with 20 percent coverage in afternoon showers—most likely coastal. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s.   

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Karl is positioned northeast of the Leeward Island with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. The storm is expected to become a hurricane as it turns northward toward Bermuda. Impacts for the island are possible over the weekend. Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, Tropical Depression 13 has formed. It is going to take a northwest track into the open Atlantic and is not expected to strengthen much, or bother land.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak front has shifted winds northerly and a continental air mass will hold dew points down a bit through Thursday. The result will be slightly cooler morning temperatures. Afternoon highs will still be just as hot due to the efficient warming properties of drier air. An upper level ridge of high pressure will be in place through the week. Beneath this ridge, capping and the drier air mass should keep rain coverage below 10 percent through the Thursday. By Friday, a surface high pressure will have moved from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the Eastern United States bringing a southeasterly surface wind flow back into the area. Despite a continued upper level ridge, the return of surface moisture and the occasional mid-level ripple of energy will help to bring showers back into the mention Friday to Sunday. However, nothing widespread or organized is expected right now. A deep trough in the Western United States will develop a fairly strong cold front in the Midwest but it is unclear right now if the trough will be progressive bringing us a change to the local area, or cut off causing the front to stall well to our northwest.   

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Set to scale back this humidity http://www.wbrz.com/news/set-to-scale-back-this-humidity/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/set-to-scale-back-this-humidity/ Weather Mon, 19 Sep 2016 6:11:27 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Set to scale back this humidity

As some slightly drier air filters into the region, rain coverage will be minimal until the weekend. Despite a little less humidity, efficiently warming drier air will keep afternoons hot. For a record 103 days, temperatures have not been in the 60s. The streak started before astronomical summer started. We could potentially see that change before fall officially begins Thursday Morning.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Monday will be partly sunny and humid with a high temperature in the low 90s. Only an isolated afternoon shower is possible. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low in the mid 70s.

Up Next: Tuesday through Friday will bring more of the same. A weak push of drier air on Tuesday could lead to slightly cooler low temperatures by Wednesday Morning with some low 70s and perhaps upper 60s in our traditionally cooler locations north of I-12. 

The Tropics: In the tropics, Julia will finally begin to move a little north toward the Carolinas as a post-tropical system. Karl will likely become a hurricane this week, however at the moment; it looks as if it will recurve into the Atlantic. It's still a ways out though, so we're watching it.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: A weak backdoor cold front will slide into the area today as an upper trough tracks across the Southeastern U.S. and an upper ridge will begin shifting eastward. Surface high pressure building in from the north and northeast will bring much drier air to the region. Rain chances will be minimal and dewpoints will fall into the 60s which will also guide low temperatures back into the upper 60s in portions of the forecast area north and east of Baton Rouge. However, high temperatures will not change much as drier air will allow for ample warming. On the positive side, with the lower dewpoints, it will not fell nearly as hot and humid and heat index values will only be a few degrees above the air temperature. The upper level ridge over the area will begin to weaken towards the end of the week and next weekend as a deep trough starts to progress east across the Rocky Mountains. The chance for rain will return as moisture levels increase. Right now we'll advertise rain coverage of 20-30 percent but that could increase by Sunday as a more significant system approaches the area. Forecast models suggest that trough could be will be quite significant, accompanied by a cold front and could result in our first real fall temperature swing. 

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Tropical Storm Julia keeping strength off coast of Carolinas http://www.wbrz.com/news/tropical-storm-julia-keeping-strength-off-coast-of-carolinas/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tropical-storm-julia-keeping-strength-off-coast-of-carolinas/ Weather Fri, 16 Sep 2016 11:50:52 AM ApNewsNow Tropical Storm Julia keeping strength off coast of Carolinas

MIAMI - Tropical Storm Julia is maintaining its strength off the coast of the Carolinas but is expected to gradually start weakening.

The storm's maximum sustained winds Friday morning are near 40 mph (64 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center says little change in strength is expected Friday but gradual weakening is expected after that.

Julia is centered about 240 miles (386 kilometers) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.

Meanwhile in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Karl is moving west with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (72 kph). Little change in strength is expected over the next two days. Karl is centered about 640 miles (1,030 kilometers) west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ian is moving northeast in the north Atlantic but poses no threat to land.


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Have a lightning plan, widespread storms through Saturday http://www.wbrz.com/news/have-a-lightning-plan-widespread-storms-through-saturday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/have-a-lightning-plan-widespread-storms-through-saturday/ Weather Fri, 16 Sep 2016 6:22:30 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Have a lightning plan, widespread storms through Saturday

The forecast continues to feature showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. College football games and tailgates in the Baton Rouge area this weekend will likely contend with rain. Fortunately, rainfall amounts are only expected to be in the 2" range meaning that other than nusiance ponding water, flooding is not anticipated.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: While some sun may appear early on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop by midday and become scattered or even widespread during the afternoon. High temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees before rain pulls numbers back down into the low 80s. Activity will begin to wrap up in the evening, allowing high school football games to play, if not delayed briefly. With mostly cloudy skies, expect an overnight low in the low 70s.  

Saturday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms are on tap for Saturday. Those with outdoor plans, such as tailgating, should have a rain, and more importantly, lightning contingency plan. Forecast models are in good agreement that storms will develop around mid-morning and continue across the area into late afternoon. The day won’t necessarily be a total washout but rounds of rain and storms will inconvenience outdoor plans. With adequate cover, tailgates can continue in the event of rain. However, with lightning in the area, only a sturdy building or vehicle is an acceptable shelter. Last week, many tailgaters remained outside with lightning striking all around. The same people then took cover when the first drops began to fall. Rain does not kill, lightning does. Most models end the precipitation by 9pm, meaning that while delays are possible, both college football games will most likely be played.

Up Next: A fairly active afternoon shower and storm pattern should persist through at least Monday. Look for partly sunny skies early with highs approaching 90 degrees. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop near coastal areas first and spread inland through the afternoon. Nights will be quieter with the record streak of lows above 70 degrees continuing. 

The Tropics: Julia has re-strengthened into a tropical storm as it spins off of the Carolina Coast. Most of the rain and wind remain east of the center. Tropical Storm Ian is racing to its own demise in the North Atlantic. Tropical Storm Karl has formed in the Eastern Atlantic and is moving westward toward the Windward Islands. Encountering harsh conditions for further development, this system will only develop slowly through the weekend.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level ridge will slide just far enough east that coincident with a Northwest U.S. trough, southwesterly flow will return ample moisture to the troposphere. On the western periphery of the ridge, ripples of vorticity will occasionally squirm through the region enhancing shower and thunderstorm development. Aided by a surface trough between Tropical Storm Julia and a disturbance in the Gulf, widespread activity is expected Friday through Sunday with rain coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area in the 50-70% range. With football season underway, those venturing outdoors should keep in mind that an indoor option is the safest shelter from lightning. Temperatures will be close to average with some highs potentially busting shy of 90 degrees depending on where the earliest showers flare up. By next week, models diverge in solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge retreating westward and returning the area to a typical hot, humid, isolated afternoon showers type of pattern. The GFS and GEM suggest a weak front reaches the area by Tuesday, potentially increasing showers and thunderstorms for a brief period, but also knocking back the humidity a touch. Obviously, the trade off in that second scenario sounds a whole lot better! We’ll see how things play out.  

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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200 mile long lightning bolt in Oklahoma deemed world's longest http://www.wbrz.com/news/200-mile-long-lightning-bolt-in-oklahoma-deemed-world-s-longest/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/200-mile-long-lightning-bolt-in-oklahoma-deemed-world-s-longest/ Weather Thu, 15 Sep 2016 5:26:06 PM ApNewsNow 200 mile long lightning bolt in Oklahoma deemed world's longest

Researchers have identified lightning bolts in Oklahoma and France as the longest on record and warn that their discovery could alter traditional thinking on when it's safe to go outside after a storm passes.

A 2007 storm in Oklahoma produced a lightning bolt nearly 200 miles (321.85 kilometers) long, while a storm in southern France in 2012 produced a single flash that lasted 7.74 seconds. Both events were added Wednesday to a list of weather extremes kept by the World Meteorological Organization.

Timothy Lang from NASA said the Oklahoma lightning bolt streaked from near Tulsa to near the Oklahoma Panhandle. Randy Cerveny at Arizona State University said the French storm produced a lightning bolt that doubled back on itself, extending its life.


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NEW RECORD: above 70 degrees for 99 consecutive days http://www.wbrz.com/news/new-record-above-70-degrees-for-99-consecutive-days/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/new-record-above-70-degrees-for-99-consecutive-days/ Weather Thu, 15 Sep 2016 5:45:20 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus NEW RECORD: above 70 degrees for 99 consecutive days

With Thursday Morning temperatures bottoming out in the low 70s, Baton Rouge thermometers have now been at or above 70 degrees for 99 straight days—marking a new record. At 69 degrees, June 8 was the last date recording a low temperature below 70. The previous record streak dated back to the summer of 1977. Temperature data at Metro Airport in Baton Rouge began in 1930. There are a few other stations around the Baton Rouge area with varying streaks at or above 70 degrees. This new record stretch will likely continue with lows pegged for the 70s through Sunday.   

It is now looking as though a wetter pattern will take shape for the weekend. College football fans in Baton Rouge will want to stay in touch with the forecast!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday won't be much different than Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies early followed by isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The farther south you are of Baton Rouge, the better chance at receiving some rain. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s. As per usual, showers will diminish at night leaving mostly clear skies and lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: Shower and storm action will begin to ramp up Friday and into the weekend. With highs near 90 and lows in the low 70s, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and linger into the early evening hours. Those heading out to LSU and Southern for tailgating and the games should monitor the forecast and have am indoor option nearby in the event of lightning.

The Tropics: Julia has now been downgraded to a tropical depression but continues to produce rain, wind and surf from Northern Florida to North Carolina. Unfortunately, this system is not expected to move much over the next two days. Tropical Storm Ian is churning haplessly in the Central Atlantic and will continue out to sea with little fanfare. Tropical Depression 12 is moving westward across the Southern Atlantic and encountering very harsh conditions for further development. At this time, no systems pose a threat to Louisiana.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Through Thursday, weak ridging will generally keep convective showers and thunderstorms in the isolated category. By Friday, the ridge will slide just far enough to the east that coincident with a Northwest U.S. trough, southwesterly flow will return ample moisture to the troposphere. On the western periphery of the ridge, ripples of vorticity will occasionally squirm through the region enhancing shower and thunderstorm development. Aided by daytime heating, scattered activity is expected Friday through Sunday with rain coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area in the 40-60% range. With football season underway, those venturing outdoors should keep in mind that an indoor option is the safest shelter from lightning. Temperatures will be close to average with some highs potentially busting shy of 90 degrees depending on where the earliest showers flare up. By next week, models diverge in solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge retreating westward and returning the area to a typical hot, humid, isolated afternoon showers type of pattern. The GFS and GEM suggest a weak front reaches the area by Tuesday, potentially increasing showers and thunderstorms for a brief period, but also knocking back the humidity a touch. Obviously, the trade off in that second scenario sounds a whole lot better!  

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Julia reminiscent of Beryl from 1988 http://www.wbrz.com/news/julia-reminiscent-of-beryl-from-1988/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/julia-reminiscent-of-beryl-from-1988/ Weather Wed, 14 Sep 2016 7:43:46 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Julia reminiscent of Beryl from 1988

The last time a storm formed "over land" was in August 1988 when Tropical Depression Three developed over Ponchatoula here in Louisiana. It then proceeded to travel over Lake Ponchartrain becoming a Tropical Storm Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of St. Bernard Parish.

It was a very slow-moving storm which brought very heavy rainfall to areas from Louisiana to Florida. Due to the counter-clockwise circulation of tropical systems, it persistently drove water into Dauphin Island and in Mobile Bay in Alabama. Overall it brought around $3 million dollars in damage.

Beryl then technically made landfall in Point á la Hache, La. and continued to move into Central Louisiana where it finally faded.

Tropical Storm Julia is not forecast to remain a tropical storm for long, but as it moves slowly north, it has a very high chance of slowing down even more. Unless the majority of its rainfall remains off the coast, this could bring heavy rain to portions of coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Depending on what happens this weekend, we may need to adjust our forecast to represent an increased risk of rainfall across Louisiana, if the bulk of this moisture moves westward. General thinking at the moment is that the moisture will begin to move inland with a northerly component, but still increasing moisture across our area thus enhancing rainfall and bringing afternoon highs to the 80s by the weekend. The thinking here at WBRZ tends to lean toward the other possibility of a ridge building, keeping the bulk of this moisture away, thus leaving us with a weekend of partly sunny skies with only pop-up thunderstorms and lows in the low 90s.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Morning low record streak with more muggy mornings to come http://www.wbrz.com/news/morning-low-record-streak-with-more-muggy-mornings-to-come/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/morning-low-record-streak-with-more-muggy-mornings-to-come/ Weather Wed, 14 Sep 2016 7:07:52 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Morning low record streak with more muggy mornings to come

We have not seen a temperature of 69° or below since before the summer started. In fact, today we have met the record for the longest streak of lows at least 70° or above since 1977; 98 straight days. We will likely break the record tomorrow. Normally we see temperatures dipping below 70° by at least August 18th. The latest in the season we've seen temperatures dip that low was by September 27th.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible with partly sunny skies today. Highs in the low 90s. Overnight, mostly clear with lows in the low 70s. 

We are painfully persistent through the next seven days because the forecast will not change much. In fact, through the end of September, it looks like our temperatures may stay above average.

We may adjust the rainfall this weekend in our forecast if Tropical Storm Julia happens to move westward, not as a tropical storm, but as just a surge of moisture. This isn't expected, but it's not impossible. Julia is the first storm to develop over land since Tropical Storm Beryl in 1988. Beryl formed over Ponchatoula as Tropical Depression Three, then slowly moving into the Gulf where it became a tropical storm. It brought $3 million in damages and heavy rain to Dauphin Island and Mobile Bay in Alabama.

Beyond Julia, Tropical Storm Ian is still forecast to move through the central Atlantic to sleep with the fishes. Beyond that, another system off the coast of Africa could develop into a storm. There's a 70% chance of development in the next two days.

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Yes it's still summer http://www.wbrz.com/news/yes-it-s-still-summer/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/yes-it-s-still-summer/ Weather Tue, 13 Sep 2016 5:47:26 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Yes it's still summer

Today and Tonight: Look for showers and storms to back off somewhat on Tuesday Afternoon. Activity will be more isolated in nature during the second half of the day. With partly sunny skies early, high temperatures will top out near 90 degrees. The nighttime hours will be quieter and muggy with lows in the low 70s. 

Up Next: Wednesday through Friday will offer very seasonable weather. The forecast calls for partly sunny skies with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the low 90s with low temperatures in the low 70s. If you’re looking for a day with a good chance of staying dry—Thursday is the bet. Stay tuned as we update the forecast into the weekend, depending on the movement of a front, the weather could be more of the same or fairly active!

The Tropics: UPDATE

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  With a stationary front dissipated and displaced east of the local area and an upper level trough along the Southwestern Louisiana Coast opening up, shower and thunderstorm coverage should back off on Tuesday. An Eastern United States high pressure system will remain in place Wednesday through Friday allowing weak southerly flow to stay in place along the Gulf Coast. With high temperatures reaching for the low 90s, marine breezes will result in diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be in the isolated category. At this time, confidence is low as to how the weekend forecast will shape up. In general, the upper pattern through the weekend looks fairly zonal and therefore shower and storm coverage will be determined by the timing and placement of fronts moving across the country. Those that get closer to the region will result in increased activity, whereas a further northern stoppage will lead to drier days. None are expected to fully clear the area to user in drier air.

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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FORECAST: continued humidity, showers and thunderstorms http://www.wbrz.com/news/forecast-continued-humidity-showers-and-thunderstorms/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/forecast-continued-humidity-showers-and-thunderstorms/ Weather Mon, 12 Sep 2016 5:49:59 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus FORECAST: continued humidity, showers and thunderstorms

A stalled front in Central Louisiana and Mississippi will tease the area with dry air, but ultimately stop short leaving humidity, showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Like Sunday, expect a fairly active afternoon in terms of showers and thunderstorms. After a midday high temperature around 91 degrees, the rumblers will flare up. With about 50 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area receiving rain, the best chances will come south of I-12. With any storms, downpours and lightning would be the primary concerns. Any lingering rain will fall apart in the evening with an overnight low temperature stopping in the mid 70s.

Up Next: New information is looking like we now have a little better chance of rain this week, compared to last week’s thinking. Overall, thunderstorms will still be isolated, but the clouds, showers and storms will mean many days will struggle go above 90 degrees. Temperatures won't fluctuate very much and that first brisk fall cold front is not on the horizon as of yet. Unfortunately, the humidity is here to stay a while longer.

The Tropics: In the tropics, things aren't too rambunctious. An area over The Bahamas will not develop, but could bring rain into Florida. Another system in the Central Atlantic will likely develop further, but the chance of it steering into the Gulf of Mexico is low.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A stationary front parked over Southeast Louisiana will continue to become diffuse through today. However, uplift generated by what remains of the front will continue to serve as an ingredient for showers and thunderstorms as the marine breezes push inland during the afternoon. A decaying mid to upper level weakness over the Northwest and Central Gulf Coast region will enhance convective coverage over the next couple of days as well. Temperatures will be near to just slightly above normal through the early part of the week. Then, an upper level ridge will build across the Southeastern United States. With slightly drier air, showers and thunderstorms will become much more isolated. A short wave trough traversing the northern sections of the U.S. will push a backdoor cold front into the region by late week, but this boundary is expected to stay to the east local area.

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Not the summer of 69 http://www.wbrz.com/news/not-the-summer-of-69/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/not-the-summer-of-69/ Weather Fri, 9 Sep 2016 6:28:30 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Not the summer of 69

The temperature has not reached 69 degrees the entire summer! Another record could be broken soon. More on that below.

Today, expect a better chance for a pop-up thunderstorm, but still partly sunny overall. Highs in the lower 90s. Overnight, mostly clear with lows in the low 70s.

The weak front yesterday brought the humidity down a touch, but not enough to make a huge difference. Another weak front comes through Saturday, but it won't be dramatic either. With regard to that fresh fall breeze, these aren't the fronts we're looking for. Shower chances increase a bit today into the weekend, but coverage remains low overall. The best chance of rain will be on Sunday.

Temperatures won't dip much into next week. In fact, we haven't even dipped into the 60s since June 9th. That's the entire summer! If this continues into next week, we will beat the record for most consecutive days at 70 degrees or above...ugh. As of this morning, we this year is in second place. Overall, expect low 90s and low 70s, with perhaps southwest Mississippi squeaking into the upper 60s one night in southwest Mississippi.

The peak of hurricane season in Saturday, but thankfully activity has remained low in recent days. There are only two areas keeping our interest, but they are in the Atlantic and not a threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time.


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These aren't the fronts we're looking for http://www.wbrz.com/news/these-aren-t-the-fronts-we-re-looking-for/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/these-aren-t-the-fronts-we-re-looking-for/ Weather Thu, 8 Sep 2016 6:18:24 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III These aren't the fronts we're looking for

You may notice slightly lower humidity through Friday morning thanks to a weak front, but it won’t last long.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday Afternoon will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near 90 degrees. You might notice slightly lower humidity, but it certainly won’t feel cool. Overnight, skies will stay clear with lows around 70 degrees.   

Up Next: Friday will feature a lot of sun as well but an isolated shower can’t be ruled out late in the day. Highs will again make it into the low 90s. By the weekend, better chances of rain and storms return to the forecast. It is always important to reiterate that with many venturing outdoors for college football season, be alert to lightning. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck and should head inside to be safe. A tailgate tent IS NOT an adequate shelter from lightning! Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Another front is expected to move through this weekend. Like last nights front, it will lower the humidity slightly, but it certainly won't usher in the fall weather we've been hoping for.

The Tropics:

THE SCIENCE:Forecast Discussion:  A weak front is crossing the area dry, just nudging dew points down by a few degrees. The front is dissipate over the region over the next few days but trailing northeasterly breezes will keep slightly drier air in place through Friday Morning. Additionally, an area of high pressure in the Southeastern United States will be responsible for keeping showers very isolated and afternoon skies mostly sunny as the week ends. On Saturday, a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Midwest will begin to interact with some returning Gulf of Mexico moisture and allow rain chances to again increase during the afternoon hours. The main global forecast models are suggesting that enough action will be around that tailgaters and college football fans will need to keep at least one eye on radar as there may be some lightning around—having an enclosed building option nearby in case shelter from a storm is necessary. As the front stalls across the Mid-South on Sunday, the area will likely find scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This front will then washout by early next week relaxing the afternoon shower coverage. Temperatures will be very close to seasonal averages through early next week.      

--RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Trending drier above and below http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-drier-above-and-below/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/trending-drier-above-and-below/ Weather Wed, 7 Sep 2016 5:46:34 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Trending drier above and below

Coming out of a more active shower and storm stretch, the end of the week will also feature slightly lower humidity.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Much drier weather is expected for Wednesday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with only an isolated afternoon shower possible. Highs will be in the low 90s. Overnight, skies will be mostly clear with lows around 70. One noteworthy change from usual—humidity should be a bit lower.  

Up Next: Thursday will be warm, but drier. With a brief break from oppressive humidity, we can still expect highs in the low 90s beneath mostly sunny skies. Friday will be mainly dry as well though an isolated shower can’t be ruled out late in the day. By the weekend, better chances of rain and storms return to the forecast. It is always important to reiterate that with many venturing outdoors for college football season, be alert to lightning. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck and should head inside to be safe. A tailgate tent IS NOT an adequate shelter from lightning! Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.  

The Tropics: It is a little quieter in the tropics Wednesday Morning. Hermine has dissipated off of the Northeast U.S. Coast while Tropical Storm Newton is bringing rain to the Desert Southwest. A new wave has pushed off the African Coast and is given a 70 percent chance of development over the next five days.  

THE SCIENCE:Forecast Discussion:  A surface high pressure nudging into the Southeastern United States is helping a weak backdoor cold front through the area. Much of the energy has been displaced west toward the Atchafalaya Basin and the Texas border and therefore, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, mainly west of I-55. With that front pressing west, dew points may slide just a bit into Thursday. Falling from the low 70s to upper 60s, it is likely that we’ll notice a drop in humidity. It will remain hot though. The area of high pressure will keep generally fair weather through Friday before southeast winds return low level moisture, humidity and eventually afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. A cold front sagging southeast across the United States may bring some additional forcing to enhance shower and thunderstorm development as well. Obviously, with many people heading outside for weekend tailgating over the next few weeks, we’ll need to be aware of the possibility of lightning.

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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Rain chances back off after today http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-chances-back-off-after-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-chances-back-off-after-today/ Weather Tue, 6 Sep 2016 6:09:35 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Rain chances back off after today

The first full week of September will bring weather becoming of the season.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: There will be a few showers today, but should be more scattered than the widespread action noticed on Labor Day. Highs will aim for 90 degrees. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: With Monday and Tuesday being the wettest days of the week, expect mostly sunny skies Wednesday through Friday. As we’re still in the warm season, an isolated afternoon shower is possible, but most of the area will remain dry. Temperatures will run a degree or two cooler than the last several weeks but gumbo weather is not yet on the horizon!

The Tropics: Post-Tropical Storm Hermine continues to churn off of the East Coast of the United States. Producing high surf, coastal erosion will continue to be an issue from New Jersey to Maine. There is also a disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean with a small chance of development in the next couple of days but the wave is headed due west and poses no threat to the local area.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A back door cold front is moving through the region, moving slowly west and into the Baton Rouge area by Wednesday. Ahead of it, scattered showers and thunderstorm will continue to be possible in a fairly moist air mass. Dew points will fall from the mid 70s today to the upper 60s by the end of the day Wednesday. Beyond the front, afternoon highs will still reach the upper 80s and low 90s but with the drier air moving through, a difference will be felt. Of course, this time of year, the humidity won’t be at bay for long. By Friday, moisture begins to move back into the region. This will also return higher chances of showers and thunderstorms in time for the weekend—with college football season back in business, we’ll need to monitor afternoon shower and storm chances. As more people are spending time outdoors, lightning awareness will be important!  A tropical wave is expected to traverse the Northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend into the start of the new week. At the very least, this system will provide a deep layer of moisture to the area keeping the amount rain coverage on the higher side.

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.


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You may be off, but weather never rests http://www.wbrz.com/news/you-may-be-off-but-weather-never-rests/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/you-may-be-off-but-weather-never-rests/ Weather Mon, 5 Sep 2016 7:13:28 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III You may be off, but weather never rests

Unfortunately today is the wettest day of the week. It won't be a washout, but expect similar conditions as what we experienced yesterday. Many of you will be enjoying the day outside today so when you hear thunder, just head inside for a bit and let the storm pass. We've lost as many people to lightning in the month of August alone, and July alone as we've lost in tornadoes all year.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms under partly sunny skies are expected. Highs are in the low 90s, however if you see rain early today, you likely won't even reach the 90s. Rain showers dissipate into the evening. Overnight, lows in the mid to lower 70s with some fog possible and perhaps an isolated shower, but most will stay dry.

While a few showers are possible tomorrow, the rest of the week looks drier. We will be a degree or two cooler than last week also, meaning low 90s and low 70s!

In the tropics, things are fairly quiet. There's a little disturbance in the southeast Caribbean, but the chance of development is fairly low.
We're watching it but it is not a threat to the Gulf at this time.


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Hermine downgraded, humidity downgraded http://www.wbrz.com/news/hermine-downgraded-humidity-downgraded/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/hermine-downgraded-humidity-downgraded/ Weather Fri, 2 Sep 2016 8:09:33 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Hermine downgraded, humidity downgraded

Hermine is now a strong tropical storm as it enters southern Georgia. It is moving fairly quickly and will likely remain a tropical storm as it straddles the Carolina coastline before weakening off the coast of New England.

Hermine brought the 5th highest recorded water level off the coast of Florida near Cedar Key. It was measured at 7.64 feet, which is the highest seen since the 1993 super storm.

Here at home, expect another repeat. Hot and humid, with very little shower activity. If we see any today, it will likely remain along the coast. Highs will reach 94 degrees this afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Overnight, some slightly drier air pushes in, and this allows our overnight temperatures to drop to 69 degrees! It will still be a bit humid, but noticeably less. Unfortunately, we jump straight back into the stickiness the next day.

Rain chances increase a bit through the weekend. For Labor Day, expect some scattered showers and thunderstorms with partly sunny skies.

~RGIII

Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

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En español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Langauge: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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