WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2016, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Tue, 28 Jun 2016 03:06:59 GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ http://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Showers Returning Today; Still Humid http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-returning-today-still-humid/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-returning-today-still-humid/ Weather Mon, 27 Jun 2016 7:38:28 AM Meteorologist Keller Watts Showers Returning Today; Still Humid

The dry weather pattern ends today as showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.  It's been a dry, stagnate weekend with little opportunity for rain, but that ends today as the dry air over south Lousiana is flushed out by the returning Gulf moisture.  Storms were already breaking out this morning across portions of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and areas east of New Orleans along I-59 and I-10 causing major traffic problems.

The atmosphere has been void of any activity over the last several days, so look for pop-up thunderstorms to contain dangerous lightning and locally heavy rain in some areas.  The chance of rain today stands at 50% and the showers will begin breaking out around the 2:00 PM and likely last into the late evening.  A few models were suggesting that some random storms could hang on into the 10:00 PM time frame tonight.

Rain returns for Tuesday on the order of a 70% chance and we should experience much more activity as a cold front makes it's way toward Lousiana over the next 48 hours.  This front will be the focus of the shower and thunderstorms until it clears the area late Wednesday night and ushers in another dry period that could last into the Fourth of July holiday weekend.  The heat index will also be a factor over the next few days with temperatures coupled with abundant moisture could push the heat indices to between 105-110 degree on Monday and Tuesday.


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A good, but hot weekend for yard work http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-good-but-hot-weekend-for-yard-work/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-good-but-hot-weekend-for-yard-work/ Weather Fri, 24 Jun 2016 5:44:06 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III A good, but hot weekend for yard work

Warm and hot without a refreshing shower today. Highs in the mid 90's under mostly clear skies. Overnight, clear with lows in the mid 70s.

It's another repeat without the rinse. The mid 90s return today and we slightly increase the heat and humidity through the weekend. A sprinkle here or there has been observed through the week, but you'll be the lucky one to see it at your house today. This pattern continues until next week, when we do see the possibility of more showers and thunderstorms. I won't even rule out an isolated shower this weekend, but the coastal communities have a best chance of seeing one. 

The showers next week will cool us down a bit. A few showers are possible on Monday, but expect a better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The tropics are fairly quiet, but we're watching a little disorganized area again around the Yucatan Peninsula. We don't expect any rapid intensification with this anytime soon however.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

~RGIII


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No rinse, but repeat http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rinse-but-repeat/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/no-rinse-but-repeat/ Weather Thu, 23 Jun 2016 7:12:32 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III No rinse, but repeat

Sunny and hot with high temps in the low 90's. Clear overnight with lows in the mid to lower 70s.

The pattern continues with heat, humidity, and a real lack of a refreshing shower. Don't expect much today, or for that matter, don't expect much for the weekend either. Because it is so hot and humid you can't rule out a possible shower, but they'll be hard to come by. We're looking at pretty warm temperatures this weekend with heat indices possibly near 105, however a heat advisory shouldn't be necessary. It looks like once we get into next week however, a refreshing shower becomes more likely. In fact, by Tuesday, it looks like we'll be seeing some scattered showers. Until then, just remember to stay cool and hydrated, and enjoy the first week of summer.

The tropics are fairly quiet. There is a little area of disorganized thunderstorm activity off the coast of Belize. Not too much development is expected in the next few days as this moves across the Yucatan Peninsula. We're watching it though along with the rest of the tropics.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

~RGIII


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A good week to mow the lawn; just stay hydrated http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-good-week-to-mow-the-lawn-just-stay-hydrated/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/a-good-week-to-mow-the-lawn-just-stay-hydrated/ Weather Wed, 22 Jun 2016 7:07:25 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III A good week to mow the lawn; just stay hydrated

There shouldn't be too many showers to mess up your lawns today, but hopefully your garden will be one of the lucky few to have a sip of water. Expect mostly sunny skies today and warm temperatures with a high in the lower 90's. Overnight, clear skies with lows in the lower 70s. Since it is summer, it is very warm and humid so it's difficult to completely rule out a sprinkle. However, rain showers are hard to come by today as an area of high pressure is dominating our pattern today and for the next several days. 

Temperatures and the steam will slowly rise toward the weekend, where there is a slightly better chance for a sprinkle. Early next week looks like best chance for rain in the forecast, however we are just anticipating isolated showers at best.

The tropics are quiet and no development is expected over the next several days. 

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

~RGIII


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First morning of summer http://www.wbrz.com/news/first-morning-of-summer/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/first-morning-of-summer/ Weather Tue, 21 Jun 2016 7:03:51 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III First morning of summer

The 90's return today under partly sunny skies and minimal rain. Highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70's under partly cloudy skies.

Summertime started at 5:34 p.m. last night and we start the first week of summer off with fairly normal temperatures. Rain chances are minimal through the rest of the week. The steam slowly increases toward the weekend, along with our temperatures, eventually increasing our rain chances slightly by the weekend. We'll have temperatures in the mid 90's and lows in the mid 70s. This will present the possibility of "feels-like" temperatures above 100. Heat advisories shouldn't be necessary and a refreshing shower will likely be welcomed.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Summer starts this evening, and temperatures are normal http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-starts-this-evening-and-temperatures-are-normal/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-starts-this-evening-and-temperatures-are-normal/ Weather Mon, 20 Jun 2016 7:01:46 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Summer starts this evening, and temperatures are normal

Summer officially starts today at 5:34 p.m. and our temperatures are much more "typical" of a first week of summer in Louisiana. Expect more showers today, but more isolated than this weekend. It will be more "hit-or-miss" as not everyone will see some rain. Expect some light showers as early as this morning, and a few thunderstorms by the afternoon. They'll be mainly along the coast, but we'll see a few inland near Baton Rouge. Temperatures will likely stay out of the 90's today, but we'll still be warm. Where it's not raining, expect partly cloudy skies. Overnight, partly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 90's.

For the rest of the week, don't expect anymore rain. While Louisiana summers can't always rule out a fluke afternoon storm, today will bring the best chances for a shower. The steam will slowly climb into the weekend and we'll see a slightly better chance for a shower then. It will be warm with mid 90s and mid 70's in the forecast.

TROPICS

Tropical Storm Danielle has formed, just in time for landfall. It won't be affecting the United States, but will be making landfall as early as this evening near Veracruz, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds will likely not reach above 40mph.

Facebook: Meteorlogist Robert Gauthreaux

Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL

~RGIII


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Warmest day of the year so far, and likely for a while http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmest-day-of-the-year-so-far-and-likely-for-a-while/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warmest-day-of-the-year-so-far-and-likely-for-a-while/ Weather Fri, 17 Jun 2016 6:17:19 AM Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III Warmest day of the year so far, and likely for a while

**HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 P.M.**

Heat and humidity will continue to be the weather headline with afternoon "feels-like" temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. Friday will be mostly sunny with light southwesterly winds. High temperatures will reach for the upper 90s. Accompanied by very high dew points, a real gauge of the humidity (as opposed to "relative humidity" which can be misleading), the human body will sense a temperature near 105 degrees for several hours in the peak heat of the day. Take it easy outside and stay hydrated. Overnight will be mostly clear and sticky with a low in the upper 70s.Saturday will be hot too but we'll be awaiting the arrival of a cold front--using the word cold loosely. A few showers and thunderstorms moving through with the front will mark a return to more seasonable readings for the second half of the weekend and early next week. Expect highs near 90 and lows near 70.

On Facebook: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III

On Twitter: @RG3wbrz

En Español: Meteorólogo Roberto Gauthreaux III

In American Sign Language: Meteorologist Robert Gauthreaux III - ASL


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Heating up: More heat advisories could be issued Thursday http://www.wbrz.com/news/heating-up-more-heat-advisories-could-be-issued-thursday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/heating-up-more-heat-advisories-could-be-issued-thursday/ Weather Wed, 15 Jun 2016 11:15:12 PM Hunter Robinson Heating up: More heat advisories could be issued Thursday

BATON ROUGE - Some heat advisories were posted Wednesday in Louisiana and more are anticpated Thursday and Friday.

For a heat advisory to be issued, the heat index has to rise to greater than 108 degrees for at least 2 hours. During that time, overheating and dehydration are possible and its recommended to wear light, loss clothes, drink plenty of fluids and do minimal activity.

In the Baton Rouge-area Thursday, highs are projects in the mid-90's with a heat index around 104 degrees. On Friday it will be more of the same, with a similar hot and humid feel. On Saturday, there could be an isolated showers or thunderstorm.


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Hazy, hot and humid into the weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/hazy-hot-and-humid-into-the-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/hazy-hot-and-humid-into-the-weekend/ Weather Thu, 16 Jun 2016 5:25:44 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Hazy, hot and humid into the weekend

Shade and hydration will be important over the next few days. Humidity may finally be shaved back a bit by a front this weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Plenty of sunshine will guide high temperatures into the mid 90s. When factoring dew points in the mid 70s, humidity brings the word “blistering” to mind. The heat and humidity combination will cause the body to sense temperatures in the low 100s during the afternoon hours. Little relief will come at night as low temperatures can’t drop below those dew points in the mid 70s.

Up Next: A repeat of the heat is expected on Friday. Some changes are then in sight for the weekend. A cold front will (strangely) approach from the northeast. With it, showers and thunderstorms are expected and due to all of the heat and humidity, enough energy will be available for a few stronger storms. By Sunday, the front will push south and some lower humidity will be noticed across the area. While a few showers may linger Sunday and Monday, some sun and a generally less active pattern is expected.    

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure may gradually come together near the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives the region a 10% of development as warmer waters and favorable upper level conditions come into play. However, at this time, steering winds would continue pushing this system northwest from there and away from Louisiana.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A very broad ridge will overtake the Southern United States for the reminder of the week. The Gulf Coast will notice peripheral effects from this ridge with slightly drier upper atmosphere and a weak cap. This will lid the atmosphere somewhat causing diurnal showers and thunderstorms to back off. Therefore, much of Thursday and Friday should be dry, except for possibly coastal areas. With additional sunshine, solar radiation will be maximized and with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, afternoon heat indices or “feels like” temperatures will feel like the low 100s. A heat advisory may be needed. Into Saturday, a deep trough pushing southward into the Southeastern United States will steer a backdoor cold front toward the local area. While details aren’t as clear as we would like, forecast models have some evidence to suggest that an area of showers and thunderstorms will approach from the northeast. Enough energy will be in place at the surface that positive vorticity advection associated with the tough and frontal lift would support strong storms. This is a somewhat strange scenario as backdoor cold fronts are less common—especially in the warm season. On the other side of the front, there will be a noticeable drop in humidity. An upper trough will meander along the Gulf Coast into early next week meaning isolated showers may continue but rain coverage should stay in the 20-30% range.

--Josh

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Summer's first big sizzle http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-s-first-big-sizzle/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/summer-s-first-big-sizzle/ Weather Wed, 15 Jun 2016 6:01:23 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Summer's first big sizzle

Shade and hydration will be important over the next few days. The heat and humidity combo will cause the body to sense temperatures over 100° today, tomorrow and Friday afternoons. Don’t look for relief overnight, lows will barely drop beneath 80°.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: On Wednesday, the area will begin to transition. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated in nature. Only expect one or two “pop-ups” in the peak heat of the day resulting in about 30% coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. With partly sunny skies otherwise, high temperatures will climb into the low 90s as humidity remains oppressive. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s beneath mostly clear skies.  

Up Next: Mostly sunny skies will rule on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will respond to more dry times and sunshine by charging into the mid 90s. The stickiness won’t go anywhere—afternoon humidity will stay up and this combination will lead to the highest and most prolonged heat of the season thus far. Expect heat indices or “feels like” temperatures to be in the low 100s from late morning into the afternoon. The humidity, created by high dew points, means that overnight as lows won’t be able to slip out of the mid 70s. A "backdoor" cold front may move, strangely, from northeast to southwest through the region this weekend which would bust up some of the humidity.

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure may gradually come together near the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center gives the region a 20% of development as warmer waters and favorable upper level conditions come into play. However, at this time, steering winds would continue pushing this system northwest from there and away from Louisiana.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A very broad ridge will overtake the Southern United States for the reminder of the week. The Gulf Coast will notice peripheral effect from this ridge with a slow drying trend in the upper levels and a developing cap. This will begin to lid the atmosphere somewhat causing diurnal showers and thunderstorms to back off. Enough warmth and humidity will linger to pop an isolated shower or storm on Wednesday but much of Thursday and Friday should be dry, except for possibly coastal areas. With additional sunshine, solar radiation will be maximized and with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, afternoon heat indices or “feels like” temperatures will feel like the low 100s.Don’t be surprised if a heat advisory is issued. Into Saturday, a deep trough pushing southward into the Southeastern United States will steer a backdoor cold front toward the local area. With this system, we can expect a few more showers and thunderstorms. The National Weather Service is hinting at the potential for some severe weather. This would be somewhat of a rare scenario, not only that it could be a summer cold front, but a northeast to southwest moving cold front—so we’ll keep an eye on this. On the other side, a noticeable difference in humidity is expected.

--Josh

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Showers trending less active after today http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-trending-less-active-after-today/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/showers-trending-less-active-after-today/ Weather Tue, 14 Jun 2016 5:54:07 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Showers trending less active after today

On these “scattered showers” days, some locations stay dry, some see multiple thunderstorms. Yesterday, the western half of the forecast area picked up precipitation while many eastern areas did not. Afternoon storm action will begin to lose its grip on the area with drier and warmer conditions by week’s end.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will offer one more day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look for showers and storm to bubble up from mid-morning forward as daytime warmth fuels development. As has been the case for several days, don’t fret a washout—just some activity to dodge. With a few breaks of sun in between, high temperatures will top out near 90 degrees. Humidity isn’t going anywhere. The overnight lows will struggle to dip below the mid 70s.

Up Next: On Wednesday, the area will begin to transition. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm coverage will become more isolated in nature and possibly absent by Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will respond to more dry times and sunshine by charging into the mid 90s. The stickiness won’t go anywhere—afternoon humidity will stay high making afternoons feel like the low 100s. Overnight lows won’t be able to slip out of the mid 70s.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A weak 500mb trough will pull away to the east through today. Shallower heights may leave behind just enough instability for another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, atmospheric moisture is on the way down so activity will not be as widespread and Saturday – Monday. A subsequent weak mid-level ridge will build over the region Wednesday and really cut down on convective coverage. Right now, am expecting 30% coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area but could see this number trimmed. Additionally, while isolated showers are currently in the mention for Thursday and Friday, these too could be trimmed or eliminated. By next weekend an upper trough moving southeastward into the Eastern United States may have enough gusto to send a weak cold front into the Gulf of Mexico. Models currently show this front to pass Late Saturday with some showers and thunderstorms. Should the front clear the Louisiana Coast, some slightly lower humidity may be anticipated for the second half of next weekend and early next week.

--Josh

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Steam and storms continue http://www.wbrz.com/news/steam-and-storms-continue/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/steam-and-storms-continue/ Weather Mon, 13 Jun 2016 5:34:44 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Steam and storms continue

No washouts, but plenty of showers and storms to dodge of late. That pattern will continue for the next few days.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Just like your weekend, showers and thunderstorms are expected to flare up throughout the day—however, they do appear to be getting started a little earlier for your Monday and could affect the morning drive in some spots. Storms should be fairly brief with downpours and frequent lightning possible. Highs will near 90-- especially in locations where rain holds off or takes longer to develop. Overnight will be muggy with a low in the mid 70s. Skies will go mostly clear late.

Up Next: Shower and storm activity should again be in swing on Tuesday before becoming more isolated on Wednesday. The end of the week will bring much lower rain chances. As rain moves out of the forecast, sun becomes more prevalent and highs will establish into the lower 90s. Lows will be muggy all week long-- never bottoming out beneath the mid 70s. 

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper trough will gradually move through the Mid-Mississippi River valley this week before flattening out by Wednesday. A weak ridge will move over the Gulf South and should negate atmospheric moisture just enough to allow the showers and thunderstorms to back off. Of course, the more efficient warming of drier air and more solar radiation will result in slightly higher temperatures. Trough, ridge, ridge, trough-- and so goes the summer pattern. 

--Josh

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Warm and humid with a few pulls possible http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-and-humid-with-a-few-pulls-possible/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/warm-and-humid-with-a-few-pulls-possible/ Weather Fri, 10 Jun 2016 5:45:19 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Warm and humid with a few pulls possible

The LSU Baseball Tarp Crew covered and uncovered Skip Bertman Field a remarkable 9 times (18 pulls) last weekend. With a more typical pattern taking shape this weekend with few showers and thunderstorms, the crew shouldn’t be quite as busy.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will be partly sunny and humid with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing around noon—especially south of the interstates, near the coast. High temperatures will top out near 90 degrees with southeast winds of 5-10mph. The overnight hours will be mostly clear and muggy with a low in the mid 70s.

Up Next: Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible each of the next three days. Overall, rain coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered and primarily limited to the afternoon hours as daytime heating and marine breezes come into play. While a rain-free weekend at Alex Box Stadium can’t be guaranteed, the tarp crew should not be as busy as last weekend. All three days, rain chances at the stadium will be around 30-40% with the window of possibility for showers between 11a-7p. Whether it is at The Box or in your backyard, enjoy the weekend safely! Keep in mind that if you hear thunder lightning is close enough to strike—head inside for a few minutes. As far as temperatures go, highs will be near 90 degrees with lows in the mid 70s. Humidity will be way up.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Surface high pressure will set up off of the Southeast United States Coast through Monday. Return flow will then kick into gear for the local area leading to southeast winds, humidity and marine breezes. Those ingredients will be sufficient to kick out some shower and thunderstorm action. Coverage will be on the order of 30% Friday and Saturday. Deeper moisture will result in more robust convective development on Sunday and Monday and thus coverage is upped to 40%. A weak upper trough may cross the region during that window as well which would also enhance storm coverage. Days with more shower and storm action will see slightly lower highs, perhaps keeping in the upper 80s but there will still be plenty of humidity. By Tuesday, a ridge will once again build into the area which will lead to less activity, more sun and higher temperatures.          

--Josh

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Some sunshine today, back to normal this weekend http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-sunshine-today-back-to-normal-this-weekend/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/some-sunshine-today-back-to-normal-this-weekend/ Weather Thu, 9 Jun 2016 5:50:49 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Some sunshine today, back to normal this weekend

After today, the Baton Rouge area will return to a pattern more typical of June. Expect marine breezes to bring “pop-up” afternoon showers back to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will run very similar to Wednesday. With slowly increasing humidity, high temperatures should have no problem achieving low 90s. Skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be light and easterly. Overnight, skies are expected to be mostly clear with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: By Friday, humidity will become oppressive again, but the afternoon should still bring some sunshine. With southeast winds of 5-10mph return flow and marine breezes could develop an isolated shower or thunderstorm—especially in areas south of I-10. A higher likelihood of pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms will come in to play Saturday to Monday. While weekend activities won’t be spoiled, have that summer plan in place where you head inside for a few minutes if lightning is nearby.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A surface high pressure will move from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the Eastern United States between by Friday, eventually shifting surface winds to the southeast as the week ends. This will result in return flow and returning humidity. An upper level ridge will build over much of the Eastern United States over the weekend which would typically cap the atmosphere. This may well be the case again however; the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the return flow will be enough to pop a few low topped showers and thunderstorms—especially on Sunday and Monday. Low level humidity and omega charts show enough moisture and lift up to about 700mb to support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. With additional forcing from marine breezes and a little eddy of positive vorticity advection beneath the ridge, some rain seems plausible. However, at this time, no washouts are expected, rather your typical summertime isolated action.      

--Josh

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Sun and warmth through Thursday http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-and-warmth-through-thursday/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/sun-and-warmth-through-thursday/ Weather Wed, 8 Jun 2016 5:27:39 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Sun and warmth through Thursday

While the mornings are starting off with slightly less humidity, an absence of afternoon clouds will keep it feeling hot!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday could turn out as the hottest day this week. With maximum sunshine and slightly drier air, we can anticipate high temperatures to surge for the low and possibly mid 90s in some locations. A light, northeast wind won’t change much. Overnight, expect clear skies and a low temperature near 70. 

Up Next: Thursday will run very similar to Wednesday. With the tiny drop off in humidity, high temperatures should have no problem achieving low 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny. By Friday, humidity will begin to return—but the afternoon should still bring plenty of sunshine. The next chance for a shower or thunderstorm will be holding off until at least Saturday—and in all likelihood Sunday. The nature of that rain won’t be significant, rather the typical “pop-up” afternoon variety.

The Tropics: Former Tropical Storm Colin has weakened and moved out to sea. No additional tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico over the next week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A weak front has slipped through the region reinforcing the slightly drier northerly surface winds. As a result, dew points will remain in the mid 60s for the next 48 hours or so. If there is to be any noticeable weather outcome from this, it will be in the form of slightly less sticky mornings. Of course, drier air is able to warm more readily than moist air and therefore afternoon highs could go a little higher—with some locations ending up in the mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday. A surface high pressure will move from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the Eastern United States between now and Friday eventually shifting surface wind to the southeast as the week ends. This will result in return flow and returning humidity. An upper level ridge will build over much of the Eastern United States over the weekend which would typically cap the atmosphere. This may well be the case again however, the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the return flow will be enough to pop a few low topped showers and thunderstorms—especially on Sunday and Monday. Given a little eddy of positive vorticity advection beneath this ridge that seems plausible. However, at this time, no washouts are expected, rather your typical summertime isolated action.      

--Josh

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Finally looking dry at The Box and beyond http://www.wbrz.com/news/finally-looking-dry-at-the-box-and-beyond/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/finally-looking-dry-at-the-box-and-beyond/ Weather Tue, 7 Jun 2016 5:42:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Finally looking dry at The Box and beyond

An unsettled pattern which complicated regional baseball at Alex Box Stadium has finally broken. Sunshine and warmth are in store for the days to come.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Tuesday will offer high temperatures in the low 90s with a light, northerly breeze and abundant sunshine. If a shower can develop, it will occur near the lakes or coast. Nighttime may be just a smidge cooler with lows in the upper 60s beneath clear skies.

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will run very similar to Tuesday. With the tiny drop off in humidity, high temperatures should have no problem achieving low if not mid 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny both afternoons with morning lows in the upper 60s. By Friday humidity will begin to return—but expect continued afternoon sunshine. The next chance for a shower or thunderstorm will be holding off until at least Saturday.

The Tropics: As of 4am Tuesday Morning, Tropical Storm Colin was located over 110 miles to the northeast of Jacksonville, Florida. The system has maximum sustained winds of 50mph and a minimum central pressure of 1002mb. Moving to the northeast at 30mph, Colin will continue to produce rain and wind from Florida to North Carolina with 1-3” possible in from Coastal Georgia to Southeast North Carolina. Tropical Storm warnings remain posted from Altamaha Sound to Oregon Inlet. Colin will lose tropical characteristics as it races out to sea tonight.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A stationary front will wash out over the Louisiana Gulf Coast today. Moisture content will drop as a result and shower action will shut down. A strengthening surface high pressure system moving through the Upper Mississippi River Valley will force a weak front through and a drier air mass into the area on Wednesday. The passage of the front will be dry but possible enough to lower humidity for mid-week. With models suggesting dew points in the mid 60s, Wednesday and Thursday may well begin in the 60s making morning a bit more comfortable. However, because dry air warms more efficiently than moist air, the afternoon will still be just as warm with highs in the low 90s. Additionally, 500mb progs have a broad ridge building over the Central CONUS Thursday into the weekend. Interestingly, as return flow kicks in over the weekend, models are suggesting some afternoon convection despite the ridge. Should this be the case, showers should be low topped and isolated and thus the normal “pop-up” summertime variety. While confidence is lower at this time, we’ll look at next weekend for the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.     

--Josh

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Fewer showers, Tropical Storm Colin approaching Florida http://www.wbrz.com/news/fewer-showers-tropical-storm-colin-approaching-florida/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/fewer-showers-tropical-storm-colin-approaching-florida/ Weather Mon, 6 Jun 2016 6:04:31 AM Meteorologist Josh Eachus Fewer showers, Tropical Storm Colin approaching Florida

The Baton Rouge area is moving back to a more seasonable pattern—with heat, humidity and only ISOLATED afternoon thundershowers.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: For the beginning of a new week comes a new pattern. More early sunshine will allow high temperatures to make a run at 90 degrees. With a weakening front through the area, north winds will blow at 5-10mph, perhaps briefly dropping humidity levels. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out during the afternoon hours but again, action will not be as widespread or persistent as over the weekend. Tonight will be mostly clear with a low temperature in the upper 60s.

Up Next: Tuesday and Wednesday will offer abundant sunshine with high temperatures near 90 degrees. Morning lows will be right around 70 degrees with light and northerly breezes. Thursday and Friday will start and end just a bit warmer as humidity moves up a bit. Afternoons will be partly sunny with highs in the low 90s.   

The Tropics: As of 7am Monday Morning, Tropical Storm Colin was located over 300 miles to the west-southwest of Tampa, Florida. The system has maximum sustained winds of 40mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004mb. Moving to the northeast at 15mph, Colin is expected to make landfall in Florida Late Monday or Early Tuesday. Tropical Storm warnings have been posted from Indian Pass to Englewood. Up to 6 inches of rain may fall across portions of Central Florida with a 1-3 foot storm surge at landfall. The East Coast of Florida and Coastal Georgia will want to be prepared for heavy rain Earl Tuesday as Colin races northeastward into the Atlantic Ocean.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A northern stream upper trough is beginning to suppress the cutoff low over Texas that brought days of unsettled weather and at the same time it is driving a weak cold front toward the Gulf of Mexico. Effects from this are two-fold. The cold front is ushering in a slightly direr air mass aloft (and at the surface) and therefore the convective action during the afternoon hours will diminish after today. In fact, this afternoon, we can only look for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as the front kicks through. The second major impact from this front is that it will keep Tropical Storm Colin away to the southeast. Unfortunately, Florida may see some heavy rain from this system, but Louisiana and Mississippi will have no impact. Light northerly wind behind the front will hold dew points and overnight lows in the upper 60s early in the week, with southerly winds coming back by late week, increasing humidity. Overall, afternoons should be decent with partial sunshine and highs right near normal—in the low 90s. 

--Josh

For updates, stay connected with Meteorologist Josh Eachus:

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Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression, moves east http://www.wbrz.com/news/bonnie-weakens-to-a-tropical-depression-moves-east/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/bonnie-weakens-to-a-tropical-depression-moves-east/ Weather Sat, 4 Jun 2016 3:06:52 PM ApNewsNow Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression, moves east

MIAMI - Tropical Storm Bonnie has weakened to a tropical depression as it continues to move east and away from the U.S. East Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Bonnie's maximum sustained winds had decreased early Saturday from near 40 mph (65 kph) to 35 mph (about 55 kph). Its center was located about 245 miles to the north-northwest of Bermuda.

The storm was moving east at 15 mph. There was no threat to land, and the Hurricane Center said no coastal warnings or watches are in effect in connection with Bonnie.


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Tropical rains, possible tornadoes threaten half of the US http://www.wbrz.com/news/tropical-rains-possible-tornadoes-threaten-half-of-the-us/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/tropical-rains-possible-tornadoes-threaten-half-of-the-us/ Weather Sat, 4 Jun 2016 3:01:35 PM ApNewsNow Tropical rains, possible tornadoes threaten half of the US

ATLANTA - From tropical rains to tornadoes, about half of the U.S. expected to see wet and at times severe weather this weekend.

The weather caps a week of scorching temperatures out West and flooding that killed nine soldiers when their military vehicle got caught in the rushing waters of a rain-swollen creek at Fort Hood, Texas.

People along the Gulf Coast are keeping a watchful eye on a system over the Caribbean Sea that was forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to parts of Florida beginning Sunday. The storm is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone.

In the Mid-Atlantic region, the nation's capital and more than 17 million people braced for the possibility of severe thunderstorms, damaging winds and tornadoes Sunday.


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EACHUS: water doesn't scare you? How about ten thousand less dollars? http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-water-doesn-t-scare-you-how-about-ten-thousand-less-dollars-/ http://www.wbrz.com/news/eachus-water-doesn-t-scare-you-how-about-ten-thousand-less-dollars-/ Weather Fri, 3 Jun 2016 1:07:07 PM Meteorologist Josh Eachus EACHUS: water doesn't scare you? How about ten thousand less dollars?

“Turn around don’t drown” isn’t working—at least not to its full potential. Meteorologists and media outlets couldn’t be more clear about the dangers of high or rushing water. Heck, television live trucks posted up in front of submerged cars apparently aren’t even strong enough visual cues to keep people away.

There may be some other reasons that the mantra isn’t connecting. Meteorologist Melissa Huffman of the National Weather Service in Houston and thewxsocial.com suggests a multitude of reasons. Perhaps it could be that drivers are in areas with which they are unfamiliar. Maybe the threat has greatly increased from the time people get into their car, where warning information is limited, to the time they encounter a hazard. “Even when there is ample warning availability, even when there is visual confirmation that the hazard is occurring, there is still an incredible difficulty in personalizing the threat that flooding poses,” Huffman explains.

Research has shown that people need pictures or video of a specific hazard in recognizable locations to fully evaluate danger and take the proper action. Even still, if a person has (perhaps, luckily) avoided a particular hazard before, the “it won’t happen to me” mentality takes over inviting maladaptive responses. Put simply, humans are very poor assessors of risk.

Meteorologists and social scientists fear that for most, water just isn’t scary enough. Flooding doesn’t carry the same dread factor as a hurricane or tornado. The fact remains however, that water, flooding, kills more people in the United States on an annual basis than either of the other hazards. Some of the more egregious offenders of this risk, live to tell about it.


Clearly, an extreme video—you would expect rushing water like that to even deter of the likes of Evil Knievel, let alone an average motorist. But streets turned river aren’t required for floodwater to take life and property. Over the mild terrain of the Southern United States, drivers take to poorly draining, flooded roads during and after common thunderstorms.

Consider the Baton Rouge area. Roads likes Acadian Thruway at the railroad underpass, Essen Lane, Jefferson Highway, Nicholson Drive, River Road and Sherwood Forest—are all typical trouble spots that find ponded water after heavy rain. Sure, the water may not be gushing, but several inches can still cause serious problems.

Most don’t compute that six inches of water can knock over an adult and a foot of water can float most cars. Surely, there are reasons, good-natured ones at that. “I drive this road every day,” or “I need to get my kids from school,” then perhaps the most common, “I need to get to work.”

No matter the explanation, each has an equally strong counterpoint. You don’t know if the road has been washed away beneath. Your kids would rather their parent be safe than on-time.  Your employer should care more about your safety than their job (Oh they don’t? I know this guy named Chris Nakamoto…).

In all seriousness, you need to get to work and you need to earn your pay. But if it’s really about collecting a paycheck, realize that driving across a flooded road could set you back way more than a day or week of pay.

According to cartalk.com, once water reaches the doors and the engine stalls, your wallet is going to open up like a floodgate. Expect damage to carpets, floor mats, door panels and the trunk liner. Seats and any motion mechanics or sensors will need to be replaced. Water will get into the gas tank as well and thus need drained. The brakes will need to be replaced. Finally, the biggest issues will come from engine damage. Water in the cylinders and transmission will need to be drained.

Especially when nobody is hurt, we regularly dismiss pictures of stalled vehicles and say, “not me.” Especially when we’ve driven it before, we regularly look at a flooded street and say, “I can make it.” I quote Mr. Wonderful, Kevin O’Leary of ABC's Shark Tank and say, “stop the madness!” Stop providing WBRZ, and other media outlets around the world, with images of stalled cars on flooded roads.

Should the driver of a stalled car make it off of a flooded street unhurt, the repercussions are still harsh.  After factoring in a rental car, the owner of a small to medium vehicle stalled out in floodwater can expect to pay $7,000 - $10,000, and unless the car is brand new, many insurers and shops would consider your car totaled.

Is it really worth it?


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