WBRZ https://www.wbrz.com/ WBRZ Weather Weather en-us Copyright 2019, WBRZ. All Rights Reserved. Feed content is not avaialble for commercial use. () () Sun, 18 Aug 2019 HH:08:ss GMT Synapse CMS 10 WBRZ https://www.wbrz.com/ 144 25 Rain Chances Increasing Slightly Sunday https://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-chances-increasing-slightly-sunday/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/rain-chances-increasing-slightly-sunday/ Weather Sat, 17 Aug 2019 6:56:33 PM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Rain Chances Increasing Slightly Sunday

THE FORECAST:

 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Partly cloudy tonight, as conditions continue to dry out across the region. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 11 PM, as lows will hover near 76° with calm winds out of the south. Partly cloudy skies extend into Sunday, with developing showers and storms through the afternoon and evening. Cells will begin to build around noon south of I-10, before pushing north between 3 PM and 8 PM. Temperatures will warm into the 80s around 8 AM, with highs peaking near 91°. Heat index values will also reach near 102° during the early afternoon hours.

Up Next:  Rain chances slowly increasing through the rest of the weekend, with coverage peaking on Monday and Tuesday before becoming more isolated through next week.

The Tropics: A small low pressure system located along the South Carolina coast about midway between Myrtle Beach and Charleston is producing disorganized showers and storms. Tropical development of this system is expected to be slow to occur tonight and Sunday due to the lows proximity to land as the disturbance moves northeastward along or near the coast of the Carolinas. By early Monday, however, the low is expected to move over the warmer Atlantic waters, where some further organization could occur. The low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall along with the threat of flash flooding in eastern portions of South and North Carolina through Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, and also within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The instability left over from the old, fragmented stationary front that slowly lifted from the coast over the last 24 hours, has kept showers and storms developing through the afternoon. Rain coverage will slowly increase Sunday and through the beginning part of the workweek. This is due to three things, this instability, the Bermuda High infiltrating into the eastern Gulf, and the large continental high pressure over New Mexico. The Bermuda High will efficiently push Gulf moisture onshore, as the New Mexico High will push more northwesterly winds across the Gulf Coast. Air from the two highs will slam into each other, causing vertical development of storms, but will also help to keep temperatures much cooler in the coming days. The high pressure over New Mexico will begin to retreat more west later in the workweek, returning more isolated, afternoon storms back into the forecast by Thursday. Highs will be confined in the low 90s over the next 7 days, but will stay in the upper 80s on Monday.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Heat Relief Slowly Moves In https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-relief-slowly-moves-in/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-relief-slowly-moves-in/ Weather Fri, 16 Aug 2019 5:36:11 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Heat Relief Slowly Moves In

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies to start off your Friday, but clouds will build through the afternoon hours. Some spotty showers will stay confined along the coast, as dry conditions persist inland. Temperatures warming quickly, into the 90s around lunchtime as highs reach near 94° with light winds out of the northeast. Clouds will be breaking through the evening hours, leading to mostly clear skies tonight. Temperatures will be dropping into the 80s around 7 PM, with overnight lows around 75° with calm winds.

Up Next:  Rain chances slowly increasing through the weekend, with coverage peaking on Monday before becoming more isolated through next week.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

Another warm day ahead this Friday, but temperatures will start to decline slightly today. This is due to a remnant frontal system that is dissipating and shifting north through the weekend. This will bring more showers and storms across our area Saturday, Sunday, and Monday as the stationary front lifts from the coast slowly. Some storm cells could be rather strong, as the dry air is pushed north over the next couple days, but should stay rather spotty. As the front lifts north, it will allow the strong Bermuda high to press into the eastern Gulf and influence the Gulf Coast into next week. This will bring a return to humid conditions and keep summertime afternoon storms in the forecast through the week.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Restoring standard August weather https://www.wbrz.com/news/restoring-standard-august-weather/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/restoring-standard-august-weather/ Weather Thu, 15 Aug 2019 6:10:37 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Restoring standard August weather

Quieter weather will be restored on Thursday. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop with the daytime warming, but will not be as significant as Wednesday. Most location received rain on Wednesday with general amounts of 1-2 inches. The possibility of isolated totals up to 3-4 inches was there, but fortunately, very few locations saw that much.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A weakening cold front draped across our region may lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms developing—especially south of I-12—but there should not be as much action as yesterday. High temperatures will be in the average range, topping out in the low 90s. Overnight will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid 70s.    

Up Next: Much of the area may eek out a dry afternoon on Friday. Mostly sunny skies will allow highs back into the mid 90s. Standard August weather is anticipated for the weekend with highs in the mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s and isolated, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. With no named storms since Barry on July 15, should nothing develop through August 19, it would be the first time that stretch of time has been storm free since 1982, which was a historically quiet hurricane season. That information comes courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weakening front will stall along or just south of the coast. Convergence along the front will lead to development of showers and thunderstorms but this may be confined to coastal areas to end the week. Standard, isolated convection is expected to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons. The upper level ridge of high pressure will be confined to the Southwest U.S. therefore keeping thermometers close to average. Both global forecast models are showing an inverted trough rolling from east to west across the central Gulf Coast early next week. This would lead to a slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms.

--Josh

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Strong storms to cut down afternoon heat https://www.wbrz.com/news/strong-storms-to-cut-down-afternoon-heat/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/strong-storms-to-cut-down-afternoon-heat/ Weather Wed, 14 Aug 2019 6:07:01 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Strong storms to cut down afternoon heat

The above average heat will be halted by showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Standard August weather should be restored for the end of the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Make no mistake about it August is a hot month. Although the steam relief will be slight, afternoon clouds, showers and thunderstorms keep thermometers and feels-like temperatures in check. Expect high temperatures to stop in the low 90s near lunchtime. It will be humid, so feels-like temperatures will still be close to 100 degrees but farther from the dangerous heat indices experienced over the last five days. By mid to late afternoon, a weak front will kick out a round of rain and thunderstorms.

Ample instability will mean that some thunderstorms could produce gusty wind. Additionally, very heavy rainfall will be possible with “off the chart” moisture in the atmosphere according to the National Weather Service. Some locations could see rainfall amounts as high as 3 to 4 inches. Expect some areas of street and poor drainage flooding.  Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the overnight hours with low temperatures in the mid 70s.   

Up Next: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will stay in play on Thursday as the weak front washes out over our region. Fewer will be around on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will still be hot, but closer to average with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak front will move into the region on Wednesday. The center of the upper level ridge will slide into the Southwest U.S. The relief provided by this front will not really come via cooler temps but more so because of greater coverage of rain, thunderstorms and clouds. There is an outside chance of some severe storms on Wednesday and the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a “marginal risk” of severe weather.  Storms will be capable of gusty wind and frequent lightning.

Precipitable water, or atmospheric moisture content, will be near record levels on Wednesday meaning thunderstorms will be capable of very heavy rain

The Weather Prediction Center has also placed the area in a “marginal risk” for excessive rainfall as precipitable water values are expected to be near record levels and thunderstorms will be moving very slowly. Street and poor drainage flooding will be likely in some locations. The weakening front will stall along or just south of the coast. Convergence along the front will lead to development of showers and thunderstorms but this may be confined to coastal areas to end the week. By the weekend, models diverge on whether or not the ridge builds back over the region. The ECMWF has been more consistent than the GFS over the last two weeks so we will favor that outcome, which would lead to at, or slightly above average temperature an only isolated convection.

--Josh

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Excessive Heat Warning issued for Baton Rouge area https://www.wbrz.com/news/excessive-heat-warning-issued-for-baton-rouge-area/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/excessive-heat-warning-issued-for-baton-rouge-area/ Weather Tue, 13 Aug 2019 5:53:21 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Excessive Heat Warning issued for Baton Rouge area

UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued an EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING for Baton Rouge as well as parishes and counties north and east of the city. This is in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening. Air temperatures will climb into the mid 90s with high dew point temperatures causing it to feel like over 113 degrees. For the remainder of the area, a HEAT ADVISORY remains in place until 8pm as feels like temperatures will be between 108-112 degrees.

These high heat index values will cause an increased risk of heat-related illnesses including heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun and check up on relatives and neighbors. If you work or spend time outside, when possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. A little more relief in the form of rain and storms will arrive by Wednesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Temperatures will fire into the 90s by lunchtime. Continued oppressive humidity will lead to feels-like temperatures in the low 100s for several hours. Partly sunny skies may give way to an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Overnight will be mostly clear with very little heat relief; low temperatures will struggle to leave the 80s.

Up Next: The upper level ridge responsible for several days of high heat will retreat westward by mid-week. Additionally, a weakening front will approach the region on Wednesday and the resulting lift into the atmosphere will create scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms—a few of which could be strong. Temperatures will still be hot, but closer to our average August level warmth with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Also, precipitation will cut into the duration of the heat. Rain coverage will again be just isolated Thursday into the weekend.   

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A similar pattern of high heat with sparse afternoon storms will continue for the early part of the week. With highs in the mid 90s and dew point temperatures in the mid 70s, heat indices will again reach the 107 to 112 range Tuesday afternoon. The upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to slide west toward Texas through the day. This may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours—especially east of the Mississippi River. Forecast model guidance continues to show a break from some of the higher heat by mid to late week. A weak front should be moving southward from the Midwest to increase rain chances across the region. That means showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread and be generally stronger. There is an outside chance of some severe storms on Wednesday and the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a “marginal risk” of severe weather. The rain-cooled air should to keep temperatures in manageable range. BY the weekend, models diverge on whether or not the ridge builds back over the region. The ECMWF has been more consistent than the GFS over the last two weeks so we will favor that outcome, which would lead to at, or slightly above average temperature an only isolated convection.

--Josh

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Heat advisory extended into Tuesday evening https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-extended-into-tuesday-evening/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-extended-into-tuesday-evening/ Weather Mon, 12 Aug 2019 6:28:28 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Heat advisory extended into Tuesday evening

Hot temperatures will continue to grab weather headlines early this new week. The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect until 8 PM CDT this evening. Air temperatures will climb into the mid 90s with high dew point temperatures causing it to feel like 108-112 degrees. These high heat index values will cause an increased risk of heat-related illnesses including heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun and check up on relatives and neighbors. If you work or spend time outside, when possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another very hot day is ahead. High temperatures will reach near 95 degrees, with heat index values hovering around 108 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny with just an outside shot at a shower or thunderstorm. Overnight will be mostly clear with very little heat relief; low temperatures will struggle to leave the 80s.

Up Next: An upper level ridge of high pressure continues its reign over the area, keeping temperatures above average and showers to a minimum. By the middle of the week, a little upper level trough will push in from the north helping to develop a few cooling showers and thunderstorms. Highs will return to near average readings in the low 90s and the duration of the heart will scale back due to afternoon clouds and precipitation. Lows will also be closer to average in the low to mid 70s.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A similar pattern of high heat with sparse afternoon storms will continue for the early part of the week. With highs in the mid 90s and dew point temperatures in the mid 70s, heat indices will again reach the 107 to 112 range Monday afternoon. The upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered a little closer to the local area and that should keep widespread convection at bay. This same weather may continue on through Tuesday. Forecast model guidance continues to show a break from some of the higher heat by mid to late week. A weak front should be moving southward from the Midwest to increase rain chances across the region. That means showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread and be generally stronger. There is an outside chance of some severe storms on Wednesday and the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a “marginal risk” of severe weather. The rain-cooled air should to keep temperatures in manageable range.

--Josh

The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.


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Temperatures Still Soaring Into Workweek https://www.wbrz.com/news/temperatures-still-soaring-into-workweek/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/temperatures-still-soaring-into-workweek/ Weather Sun, 11 Aug 2019 5:17:07 PM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Temperatures Still Soaring Into Workweek

THE FORECAST:

Tonight and Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies tonight, with muggy conditions. Temperatures will reach an overnight low of 77° with light winds out of the southwest. Another scorcher for your Monday, as temperatures soar to highs near 95° and heat index values around 110°. A Heat Advisory is in effect through the day until 9 PM, so make sure to stay hydrated and take it easy when outside. There is a slight chance of a spotty shower between the hours of noon and 7 PM, but they will be light and brief. Winds will stay light and out of the northwest through the day.

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the beginning part of the workweek, before rain chances increase through the midweek.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

Heat will continue to crank heading into the workweek, with clouds breaking and high temperatures hovering in the mid-90s. This is due to a strong, upper-level high pressure that is located over our area, keeping temperatures above average and showers to a minimum. At the surface, there is a high pressure located in the northern Gulf, which has been keeping moisture pushing onshore just enough to elevate dewpoints. This will persist through Tuesday, before a weak frontal system pushes in from the north on Wednesday. The shortwave trough will dissipate over the Gulf Coast to provide more scattered showers and storms, effectively cooling highs near 90° through the midweek. Relief will not last long, as highs rebound back near average by Friday with spotty, afternoon showers returning over the weekend.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Heat Stays for the Weekend https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-stays-for-the-weekend/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-stays-for-the-weekend/ Weather Sat, 10 Aug 2019 5:43:44 PM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Heat Stays for the Weekend

THE FORECAST:

 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Cloudy skies initially tonight, but will turn more partly cloudy after 11 PM. A very muggy night ahead, as temperatures will be dropping to an overnight low of 77° with calm winds. Clouds will continue to break up through the day on Sunday, as some spotty showers and storms develop along a weak sea breeze front during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Temperatures will be soaring back into the mid-90s for highs, as heat index values top out near 105°. This is just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, so one will not be issued from the National Weather Service on Sunday. This does not mean there is no heat danger! Stay hydrated and keep the sunscreen close because the UV Index will again reach into the extreme category.

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the beginning part of the workweek, before rain chances increase through the midweek.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

It is August in South Louisiana, which means one word – HOT! This will stay the course over the next several days as a surface high is over the northern Gulf and the upper-level high is right over us. This will keep the heat bubble over our area and east Texas Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A spotty, cooling shower will still be possible during this timeframe, but will be few and mostly to our east and north. Models are in agreement about bringing a weak frontal system along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. It will be breaking up as it approaches, but will impact with the sea breeze front to provide more scattered showers and storms Wednesday and potentially Thursday before falling apart. This boundary does help to cool high temperatures off a bit, just enough to be on the other side of our average by a degree or two. It will help to bring slight relief, but conditions will still be rather hot and humid into next weekend.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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HEAT ADVISORY leading into steamy weekend https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-leading-into-steamy-weekend/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/heat-advisory-leading-into-steamy-weekend/ Weather Fri, 9 Aug 2019 6:27:01 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus HEAT ADVISORY leading into steamy weekend

Steamy afternoons and uncomfortably warm nights will be the weather theme through the weekend. The past 7-10 day stretch of active and stormy afternoons will take a break. 

UPDATE: The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening. Air temperatures will climb into the mid 90s with high dew point temperatures causing it to feel like 107-112 degrees. These high heat index values will cause an increased risk of heat-related illnesses including heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun and check up on relatives and neighbors. If you work or spend time outside, when possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Plenty of sun and steam will be around through the day. High temperatures will make it into the mid 90s and with a lot of humidity, the feels-like temperature will approach 105 degrees. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible, but most locations will stay dry. Overnight will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the upper 70s.  

Up Next: This weekend, humidity will be seasonably high which will result in several hours each afternoon with feels-like temperatures in the 105-110 degrees range. Nights will be particularly uncomfortable, as dew point temperatures in the upper 70s hold lows near 80 degrees. The National Weather Service has the area on standby for some heat advisories. As far as showers and thunderstorms go, we will need to monitor a few upper level impulses that could lead to an uptick in activity—especially late Saturday into Sunday and mainly in the northeastern corner of the forecast area. Otherwise, only typical pop-ups are expected. This pattern will carry into the middle of next week.  

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. On Thursday, NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway. Read their full release HERE.

THE EXPLANATION:

A ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend. The local area will undergo some noticeable changes as a result. First, high temperatures will top out in the mid 90s as the ridge centers over Texas and Louisiana. High dew points will result in heat indices exceeding 100 degrees for several hours each day and uncomfortable nights, barely exiting the 80s. Second, the subsiding air beneath the ridge will cut into the number of showers and thunderstorms that are able to develop. Consequently, the sinking air and pockets of drier air aloft mean that any storms that can develop will be capable of gusty wind. As a result, fewer but stronger storms will be in the forecast. A caveat to the rain coverage forecast is that a few disturbances riding around the ridge of high pressure could spin across the local area at times leading to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These disturbances would be more likely to impact areas north and east of Baton Rouge. Of course, per the nature of warm season storms, downpours and frequent lightning remain possible.   

--Josh

The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.


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Slowly transitioning to hotter, less active pattern https://www.wbrz.com/news/slowly-transitioning-to-hotter-less-active-pattern/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/slowly-transitioning-to-hotter-less-active-pattern/ Weather Thu, 8 Aug 2019 6:12:16 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Slowly transitioning to hotter, less active pattern

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more isolated over the coming days. In August though, the consequence of fewer showers and thunderstorms is usually more heat.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A warm morning will turn into a steamy afternoon. High temperatures will top out around 94 degrees. Partly sunny skies will give way to isolated showers and thunderstorms between 1 – 8pm. Any storm will be capable of quick downpours, frequent lightning and possibly some gusty wind. Showers will die out during the evening followed by partly cloudy skies and low temperatures near 76 degrees.

Up Next: The upper level trough, responsible for more than a week of below average high temperatures and an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, will start to move east. By Friday, an upper level ridge is expected to nudge eastward which will stabilize and dry out the atmosphere. The result will be not as many showers and slightly warmer high temperatures. Humidity will be seasonably high which will result in several hours each afternoon with feels-like temperatures in the low 100s. Nights will be particularly uncomfortable, as dew point temperatures in the upper 70s hold lows near 80 degrees. The National Weather Service has the area on standby for some heat advisories.  


2019 has already set a number of high heat records. While record warmth is often related to hot afternoons, overnight low temperatures have been rising even faster than daytime highs. Since 2010, there have been 34% more record high minimums than record high maximums (according to NOAA data compiled by meteorologist Guy Walton). And of all the summers on record, 2018 had the warmest low temperature in the contiguous U.S.

This week, Climate Central examined changes in average summer low temperatures around the country. Nationally, the increase was 1.8°F since 1895, dating back to when records began. In Baton Rouge, average nighttime lows have warmed about 1.6 degrees since 1970. Warm nights carry major health risks. When the temperature doesn’t drop much overnight, it doesn’t give people a chance to recover from extreme daytime heat. Urban areas can retain even more heat through their dense network of concrete roads and buildings, making nighttime temperatures up to 22°F higher than in rural areas. Health risks are higher for vulnerable populations such as the sick, elderly, and lower-income communities who may not have air conditioning or struggle to access cooling centers.

Even for those who have AC, the cost is only increasing as the climate warms. A 2018 Climate Central report noted that 93% of the same cities analyzed have observed a rise in cooling degree days (which relates to how much we use our AC units). Cooling off by using fans with ice tanks—as well as trees and other green infrastructure—can help reduce these energy costs and health risks.

METHODOLOGY: The trend in summer minimum temperatures (June, July, August) was computed using data from the Applied Climate Information System and applying a mathematical linear regression. The national graphic used contiguous U.S. data from NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance. 

Climate Central's local analyses include 244 stations. However, for data summaries based on linear trends, only 242 stations are included due to large data gaps in St. Johnsbury, Vermont and Wheeling, West Virginia.


The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The stubborn upper level ridge of high pressure that has been parked over the Desert Southwest is beginning to dislodge. As this ridge moves eastward, the local area will undergo some noticeable changes. First, high temperatures will climb a few degrees. Several days in the mid 90s are anticipated late week through the weekend as the ridge centers over Texas and Louisiana. High dew points will result in heat indices exceeding 100 degrees for several hours each day and uncomfortable nights, barely exiting the 80s. Second, the subsiding air beneath the ridge will cut into the number of showers and thunderstorms that are able to develop. Consequently, the sinking air and pockets of drier air aloft mean that any storms that can develop will be capable of gusty wind. As a result, fewer but stronger storms will be in the forecast. A caveat to the rain coverage forecast is that a few disturbances riding around the ridge of high pressure could spin across the local area at times leading to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These disturbances would be more likely to impact areas east of I-55. Of course, per the nature of warm season storms, downpours and frequent lightning remain possible.   

--Josh

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A subtle weather pattern switch is on the way https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-subtle-weather-pattern-switch-is-on-the-way/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-subtle-weather-pattern-switch-is-on-the-way/ Weather Wed, 7 Aug 2019 5:58:12 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus A subtle weather pattern switch is on the way

There are signs that the persistent pattern will start to let up over the coming days. In August though, the consequence of fewer showers and thunderstorms is usually more heat.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: An uncomfortable morning will turn into a warm and humid afternoon. High temperatures will top out around 94 degrees. Partly sunny skies will give way to a few showers and thunderstorms between 1 – 8pm. Any storm will be capable of quick downpours, frequent lightning and possibly some gusty wind. Showers will die out during the evening followed by partly cloudy skies and low temperatures near 76 degrees.

Up Next: The upper level trough, responsible for more than a week of below average high temperatures and an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, will start to move east. By Friday, an upper level ridge is expected to nudge eastward which will stabilize and dry out the atmosphere. The result will be not as many showers and slightly warmer high temperatures. Humidity will be seasonably high which will result in several hours each afternoon with feels-like temperatures in the low 100s. The National Weather Service has the area on standby for some heat advisories.  

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. CLICK HERE for a detailed breakdown of the Atlantic Basin.

THE EXPLANATION:

The stubborn upper level ridge of high pressure that has been parked over the Desert Southwest is beginning to dislodge. As this ridge moves eastward, the local area will undergo some noticeable changes. First, high temperatures will climb a few degrees. Several days in the mid 90s are anticipated late week through the weekend as the ridge centers over Texas and Louisiana. High dew points will result in heat indices exceeding 100 degrees for several hours each day and uncomfortable nights, barely exiting the 80s. Second, the subsiding air beneath the ridge will cut into the number of showers and thunderstorms that are able to develop. Consequently, the sinking air and pockets of drier air aloft mean that any storms that can develop will be capable of gusty wind. So, fewer, but stronger storms will be in the forecast. Of course, per the nature of warm season storms, downpours and frequent lightning remain possible too.    

--Josh

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More Afternoon Storms Developing Today https://www.wbrz.com/news/more-afternoon-storms-developing-today/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/more-afternoon-storms-developing-today/ Weather Tue, 6 Aug 2019 6:11:52 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan More Afternoon Storms Developing Today

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies for your Tuesday, with showers and storms developing through the afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will develop around 1 PM. An impulse of showers and storms will be approaching from the north around 4 PM, which should increase rain and storm coverage to scattered until 8 PM. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms, so localized flooding is possible. Temperatures will warm to an afternoon high near 93° with light winds out of the southwest. Heat Index values will be approaching 103°, especially for areas that stay dry. Showers taper off by 10 PM, under partly cloudy skies and overnight lows near 75°.

 

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the majority of the workweek, before isolated afternoon showers occur beginning Friday.

 

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is not expecting any tropical development over the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

There continues to be little change in the forecast as we await an upper level high pressure center that should near the area over the weekend. Currently, the surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf keeps southerly winds along the Gulf Coast, and is rather efficient at pushing Gulf moisture onshore. Scattered storms will stay the course through Thursday, until the stacked high pressure that is currently over New Mexico breaks through Texas and into Louisiana. This high will keep showers and storms on the spotty to isolated range, but will also allow temperatures to soar into the mid-90s. The ridge associated with this high pressure looks as if it will bisect Louisiana from northwest to southeast, keeping our area a bit cooler and wetter than more west over the weekend. The GFS is hinting at bringing another cold front with some cooler air behind it by mid-to-late next week. This is rather rare, but we did experience one in July – which is also rare. Confidence is still low since it is so far out and was only picked up on the last model run, but one can hope!

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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The Mississippi River has Finally Dropped Below Flood Stage https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-mississippi-river-has-finally-dropped-below-flood-stage/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-mississippi-river-has-finally-dropped-below-flood-stage/ Weather Sun, 4 Aug 2019 5:05:58 PM Meteorologist Matt Callihan The Mississippi River has Finally Dropped Below Flood Stage

THE FORECAST:

Tonight and Tomorrow: Mostly clear tonight, with calm winds from the southwest. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 10 PM, as we bottom out near 74° for our low. Clouds will build through Monday morning, as scattered showers and storms develop through the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms will be rather strong, with heavy downpours, gusty winds between 30-40 mph, and frequent lightning. Localized flooding will be possible within some of these cells, so make sure not to drive through flooded roadways. Temperatures will warm into the 80s around 9 AM, as highs reach near 91° with light winds out of the west. Heat index values will approach 100° through the early afternoon hours.

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the beginning of the workweek, before isolated afternoon showers occur beginning Thursday.

The Tropics: A westward-moving tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles continues to produce an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, and no further organization of this system is anticipated. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

There is little change in the short term weather pattern through the beginning part of the workweek. An upper level trough will be sticking around the eastern seaboard, as a large high pressure remains in place over the four corners region. At the lower levels, the Bermuda high’s influence has crept in the eastern Gulf, keeping winds light and out of the southwest. These southerly winds have allowed for Gulf moisture to push onshore effectively, producing scattered showers and storms as temperatures break into the mid-80s through the early afternoon hours. We are located on the back side of the upper level trough that is situated across the east coast, creating a northerly wind pattern in the upper levels. Going up in elevation across the Gulf Coast, winds start southwesterly and change to more northerly. This allows for some extra forcing to support vertical development of storms due to the weak vorticity that will be pulsing through the region associated with these discrepancies in wind direction with height. These forcings will continue to linger through Wednesday before the upper level high over the southwest U.S. begins to trek eastward. It will eventually reach into Texas over the weekend, but even in its early journey will have influence across our area to provide more spotty to isolated storms beginning Thursday. Rain chances will continue to slowly dwindle into the weekend, as highs rebound back to near average for this time of year – which is 93°.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Rinse and repeat, record river flood ends https://www.wbrz.com/news/rinse-and-repeat-record-river-flood-ends/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/rinse-and-repeat-record-river-flood-ends/ Weather Mon, 5 Aug 2019 6:14:54 AM Chief Meteorologist Dr. Josh Eachus Rinse and repeat, record river flood ends

The persistent pattern will continue into the new week. No full day rain-outs are expected, but many locations stand a good shot at showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After fog diminishes, partly sunny skies will welcome the new week. Clouds will build through the morning leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Heavy rainfall is possible in some storms, which will last into early evening. Highs will top out near 91 degrees. Showers will die out by midnight followed by partly cloudy skies and lows near 75 degrees.

Up Next: A broad upper level trough is focused over the eastern seaboard as am upper level ridge of high pressure stays pinned to the four corners region. Between these two features, the local area has had enough instability with daytime warming to produce daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This weather pattern will stick around through the middle of the week. By Friday, the upper level ridge is expected to nudge westward which will stabilize and dry out the atmosphere. The result will be not as many showers and slightly warmer high temperatures.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: On Sunday, the gauge at Baton Rouge dropped below flood stage for the first time since January 5. This ended a record smashing run of 212 consecutive days above flood stage. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. The water level will continue a steady fall over the next few weeks. This drop will also alleviate high water on the Atchafalaya River from Krotz Springs to Morgan City. Lingering backwater flooding near Bayou Chene, Stephensville and Lake Palourde will subside.  

THE EXPLANATION:

It seems like the daily routine of nocturnal showers and thunderstorms offshore and afternoon action inland will continue. The upper level ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region will move a bit east by the end of the week lessening the coverage in showers and thunderstorms. However, the ridge will not fully envelop the region and so a northwesterly flow will continue aloft. This will still allow some showers and thunderstorms to traverse the region and while coverage will not be as high, the risk for a few to be strong could increase.

--Josh

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Afternoon Storms Continue Through the Weekend https://www.wbrz.com/news/afternoon-storms-continue-through-the-weekend/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/afternoon-storms-continue-through-the-weekend/ Weather Sat, 3 Aug 2019 6:34:00 PM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Afternoon Storms Continue Through the Weekend

THE FORECAST:

 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies tonight, with calm winds from the south. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 9 PM, as we bottom out near 72° for our low. Clouds will build through Sunday morning, as scattered showers and storms develop through the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms will be rather strong, with heavy downpours, gusty winds between 30-40 mph, and frequent lightning. Localized flooding will be possible within some of these cells, so make sure not to drive through flooded roadways. Temperatures will warm into the 80s around 9 AM, as highs reach near 89° with light winds out of the west.

 

Up Next:  This weather pattern stays through the beginning of the workweek, before more spotty to isolated afternoon showers occur beginning Thursday.

 

The Tropics: A large area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next day or two as the disturbance moves west-northwestward toward the northern Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are then expected to become unfavorable for further development early next week. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and also a 20% chance within the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

This weather pattern will be staying with us over the weekend and into the workweek. Expect afternoon showers and storms during this timeframe, with strong storms incurring heavy rainfall. It all is associated with an upper level trough that is over the southeast U.S. between two strong high pressure systems near Bermuda and the four corners region. Showers should become more isolated after midweek, but that is when weather models begin to disagree. Both the GFS and the EURO indicate that an upper level trough will swing through the Great Lakes region, but the GFS hints at a sharper trough that pushes the into the Gulf. Even if this does pan out, it will only bring added atmospheric forcings to increase vertical development of storms. This would translate into more scattered storms than isolated. Due to the strength and location of current high pressures over the southern U.S., I have decided to lean more on the EURO model. This outcome would allow for isolated storms to still develop through the afternoon, as high temperatures slowly increase with less cloud cover beginning Thursday. This pattern should stay the course into next weekend.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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More Isolated Storms This Afternoon https://www.wbrz.com/news/more-isolated-storms-this-afternoon/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/more-isolated-storms-this-afternoon/ Weather Fri, 2 Aug 2019 6:28:16 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan More Isolated Storms This Afternoon

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies for your Friday, with showers and storms developing through the afternoon. Storm cells will be building along a sea breeze front that will push onshore and north into the region. The rain should stay south of the Baton Rouge area, but some cells could push in from 2 PM to 6 PM. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms, so localized flooding is possible. Temperatures will warm to an afternoon high near 90° with light winds out of the north. Heat Index values will be approaching the triple digits, especially for areas that stay dry. Showers taper off by 7 PM, under partly cloudy skies and overnight lows near 73°.

 

Up Next:  Spotty to isolated showers and storms will develop through the afternoon today, with rain chances increasing over the weekend.

 

The Tropics: An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, but increasing to a 40% chance within the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

The overall weather pattern will not change much over the next 7 days. In the upper levels, we are sandwiched in between two large high pressure systems. One high is located over New Mexico with the other between the east coast and Bermuda. The high over the Southwest U.S. will be shifting slight west over the weekend, which will allow for the Bermuda high to have more influence on our weather. This means that our prevailing winds will shift from northerly to more southerly, helping to increase the amount of Gulf moisture that is able to move onshore. Showers will become more scattered Saturday and Sunday, but stay confined through the afternoon and evening hours due to daytime heating. Heavy rainfall will be occurring in some of these storm cells, so localized flooding is possible into next week. There will also be a potential for 30+ wind gusts as well. Rain become more isolated through the midweek next week, especially as we near next weekend as the Southwest high pressure begins to build and shift slightly east.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Afternoon Storms Turn More Isolated Today https://www.wbrz.com/news/afternoon-storms-turn-more-isolated-today/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/afternoon-storms-turn-more-isolated-today/ Weather Thu, 1 Aug 2019 6:51:52 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Afternoon Storms Turn More Isolated Today

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Partly cloudy through the day today, with pockets of showers and storms developing through the afternoon hours between 1 PM and 6 PM. These showers will be moving in from the north, so some spotty rain could be felt in our southwest Mississippi counties around noon. Some rain could also linger until 8 PM, but it will be light and sporadic. There is still a potential for heavy downpours in spots, so localized flooding will still be possible through the middle of the day. Rainfall amounts should stay near .2”.Temperatures will be warming into the 80s around 9 AM, as we reach a high near 91° this afternoon. Winds will stay rather calm today and tonight, as showers taper off. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 9 PM, as we bottom out overnight into Friday morning to around 73°.

 

Up Next:  Spotty to isolated showers and storms will develop through the afternoon Thursday and Friday, with rain chances increasing slightly over the weekend.

 

The Tropics: We are currently monitoring two areas of potential tropical development in the Caribbean and the Eastern Atlantic.

 

The first is an area of disturbed weather stretching across Cuba and the Bahamas which is forecast to move northwestward and then northward, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida during the next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a 10% chance of development within the next 5 days.

 

The second is a broad low pressure system located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands which is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, but increasing to a 70% chance within the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

There is not a whole lot of surface features across the Gulf Coast, just a couple weak and isolated low and high pressures, with the main front staying to our north in Central Arkansas. That is similar to the situation in the upper-levels as well. The Gulf Coast is in between two large high pressure systems, one in the four corners region, and the other is the Bermuda High. Between these highs, a weak trough has set up over the northern Gulf. This will keep spotty to isolated showers and storms through the rest of the workweek. The high pressure over the Southwest U.S. will begin to degrade over the weekend, meaning that rain chances will increase and become more scattered as the Bermuda High’s influence will push into the eastern Gulf. It should not last too long, as the Western High begins to slowly build again through the beginning of next week.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Isolated Rain Chances Exist, But More Sunshine https://www.wbrz.com/news/isolated-rain-chances-exist-but-more-sunshine/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/isolated-rain-chances-exist-but-more-sunshine/ Weather Wed, 31 Jul 2019 8:04:16 AM Meteorologist Keller Watts Isolated Rain Chances Exist, But More Sunshine

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Expect a full day of abundant sunshine with afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s, and of course the humidity will be ever present making the heat index feel like the middle 90s.  Also, the possibility exists for a 60% of passing showers and isolated thunderstorms that will be much more sporadic in nature than was Wednesday.  Rain chances increase significantly into the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall occurring with some of the heavier storms.  Lingering showers into the early evening will dissipate leaving partly cloudy skies and overnight temperatures dipping to the lower 70s.

The Tropics: We are currently monitoring two areas of potential tropical development in the Caribbean and the Eastern Atlantic.

 The first is incurring shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but it remains disorganized. This system is expected to move west-northwestward with no significant development, producing locally heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become marginally conducive for development when the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a 10% chance of development within the next 5 days.

 

The second is a tropical wave that is accompanied by a broad low pressure system that is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, but increasing to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.

--Meteorologist Keller Watts

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Storms and Heavy Rain Through the Day https://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-and-heavy-rain-through-the-day/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/storms-and-heavy-rain-through-the-day/ Weather Tue, 30 Jul 2019 6:59:24 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Storms and Heavy Rain Through the Day

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies through the day today, as scattered showers and storms will move in this morning and continue to develop through the afternoon. Some strong storms will be possible, with heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Areas west of Baton Rouge are in a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall, and east of Baton Rouge are in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 4). We can expect 1-2” of accumulated rainfall within some of these storm cells, with an average of .5” to .75” across our entire region. Temperatures will be warming slowly because of these approaching showers, breaking into the 80s around 10 AM, with an afternoon high near 87° with light winds out of the west. Scattered strong storms will continue to develop through the afternoon until about 6 PM, then more spotty showers will linger through the overnight period. Temperatures will be dropping into the upper 70s around 7 PM, eventually reaching a low of 72°.

 

Up Next:  After a wet and stormy Tuesday and Wednesday, showers will become more isolated and confined to the afternoon to wrap up the workweek.

 

The Tropics: We are currently monitoring two areas of potential tropical development in the Caribbean and the Eastern Atlantic.

 The first is incurring shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but it remains disorganized. This system is expected to move west-northwestward with no significant development, producing locally heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the southeastern Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become marginally conducive for development when the disturbance moves near Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a 10% chance of development within the next 5 days.

 

The second is a tropical wave that is accompanied by a broad low pressure system that is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper-level winds are expected to be unfavorable for any significant development of this disturbance during the next few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, but increasing to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

A stalled frontal trough will linger across Southern Louisiana today to input ample uplift and convection that will build through the morning and peak between 1 PM and 6 PM. The main concern is heavy rainfall, as we are in Slight to Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Tuesday. Moisture does start to wane a bit as we proceed through the midweek, as some mid-level dry air moves into the area. This will bring a return to a more normal summertime pattern, with afternoon isolated storms developing as temperatures break into the upper 80s. There is a large, upper-level high pressure over the southwest, which has kept our high temperatures at or slightly below average over the latter half of July. This is due to the northwest winds aloft influencing daily heating. This flow will likely bring additional storm cells into the Gulf States over the weekend, which will slowly increase rain chances into Sunday.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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Periods of Heavy Rainfall Possible Today https://www.wbrz.com/news/periods-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-today/ https://www.wbrz.com/news/periods-of-heavy-rainfall-possible-today/ Weather Mon, 29 Jul 2019 6:19:30 AM Meteorologist Matt Callihan Periods of Heavy Rainfall Possible Today

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies to start your Monday off, but clouds will be building through the morning. Scattered showers and storms will be developing through the afternoon and evening hours, with some storms becoming rather strong. The majority of the area west of Tangipahoa Parish is included in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through the day, with an isolated potential of 1-2” in some of these slow moving cells. We should average closer to the .25” to .5” rainfall amounts for most of our region. Temperatures will be warming to a high of 89°, with heat index values between 95° to 98° during the early afternoon hours. Showers should taper off after 7 PM, but a dissipating line of rain could break into our northwest parishes and counties after 10 PM. This is associated with a broken and ragged front that will increase rain and storm chances for Tuesday. Overnight lows will bottom out near 73° into Tuesday morning with light winds out of the south.

 

Up Next:  Scattered afternoon storms through the beginning part of the workweek, before we begin to experience more spotty showers starting Thursday.

 

The Tropics: Showers and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea to just north of the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the north-central Caribbean Sea during the next few days, producing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Little development of the disturbance, however, is likely during this time as upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive. The system is forecast to move near or over the Straits of Florida and the Bahamas by the end of the week, where environmental conditions could be a little more conducive for development. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a 20% chance of development within the next 5 days.

 

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak high pressure has developed in the northern Gulf over the last 24 hours, which will work together with an approaching fragmented cold front from the northwest to continue afternoon scattered storm activity through Southern Louisiana into the start of the workweek. The high pressure will supply the moisture from the Gulf and push it onshore, as the front will push more instability in and allow for vertical development of storms to be rather efficient. This weather pattern stays through Tuesday before the front dissipates. The high pressure in the Gulf should weaken, but stay intact enough to keep spotty to isolated showers in the forecast starting Thursday. Southerly winds will also confine dewpoints in the mid-70s through the next several days, keeping humidity in the area and heat index values in the mid-to-upper 90s. A weak mid-level low pressure system will break off of the fragmented front that pushed through and stalled earlier in the week. This low will push into the northern Gulf of Mexico late Friday and into Saturday, bringing a return of scattered storms across our area for the start of the weekend.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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